Patrick Gorski-Imagn Pictures
This season is the third because the implementation of a spate of great rule modifications throughout the majors. Together with a pitch clock and limits on defensive positioning, a restrict on disengagements (learn: pickoff throws plus idle standing round) mixed with barely bigger bases gave runners a collective inexperienced gentle. With fewer throws to first, greater targets to slip into, and extra predictable pitcher deliveries because of the clock, stealing a base bought a lot simpler in a single day. In 2022, the final 12 months of the outdated guidelines, the majors noticed 2,486 steals throughout all the season. In 2024, that quantity surged to three,617 steals. Even higher from an offensive perspective, the stolen base success charge jumped from 75.4% to 79% over that span.
The primary 12 months of the brand new guidelines was all about experimentation. Some gamers ran wild – Ronald Acuña Jr. roughly took off each time he may. In the meantime, the Giants stole simply 57 bases as a crew, fewer thefts than the earlier 12 months, when these steal-boosting guidelines weren’t but in impact. None of that appears notably stunning to me; when new guidelines of this import are added to the sport, each crew will scramble to determine find out how to change their very own conduct to learn. There have been a ton of transferring elements, and plenty of groups took a easy method: preserve stealing an increasing number of till it begins to fail.
The 2024 season was the 12 months of the defensive response. Groups tried 209 extra steals in 2024 than they did in 2023, however solely succeeded on 114 of these further steals. The combination impact was a decrease success charge on marginally extra makes an attempt. Catcher pop occasions improved, pitchers threw over extra usually, and defenses had been extra attentive to baserunners generally. That brings us to 2025, and within the early going, it seems just like the baserunners are persevering with to push the envelope:
My most well-liked method of how usually groups are stealing is stolen base makes an attempt per crew per recreation. That’s precisely how I image the proclivity to run in my head, and it adjusts for brief seasons and incomplete seasons equally nicely. In 2023 and 2024, we noticed roughly equal stolen base makes an attempt; this season represents a step change within the early going. Stolen base makes an attempt are up twice as a lot, 12 months over 12 months, as they had been final 12 months, and runners are succeeding on the similar clip nonetheless, a 78.8% success charge after 2024’s 79.0%:
Okay, I fibbed somewhat. Stolen base makes an attempt per crew per recreation is fairly good, however we will truly do a bit higher. That metric makes use of “video games” as a denominator, however that’s not fairly proper. A league with solely dwelling runs and strikeouts wouldn’t have any steals no matter how briskly the runners had been. A league the place a runner began on first base each inning would have many extra stolen base makes an attempt. Alternative issues. For a crew to try a steal, they want a runner on base, and most continuously a runner on first base with nobody on second.
This knowledge isn’t excellent, as a result of it’s scraped from a messy database and I’m completely certain {that a} rogue bizarre play or two snuck in. It’s additionally not an actual encapsulation of “stolen base alternatives” for a number of causes. Runner on first down 11 within the backside of the eighth? You’re in all probability not stealing, however I’m counting it. Double steals? Fully ignored. Steals of third? We’ll get to these later, however I’m ignoring them for this. With all that in thoughts, although, this graph tells you that baserunners are taking larger liberties with each passing 12 months:
The “charge” in query is makes an attempt to steal second per time with a runner on first however not second. I prefer to name it “takeoff charge” – how usually a runner with an opportunity to steal offers it a attempt. I feel that the precise numbers could be off by as a lot as a tenth of a proportion level, however that doesn’t actually matter. The development is giant and unmistakable.
The brand new guidelines have additionally made stealing third base simpler. In 2023, runners stole third a whopping 510 occasions and had been profitable at a daft 84.3% clip. However as Leo Morgenstern identified, that development didn’t proceed final 12 months. By season’s finish, groups had tried 38 fewer steals of third, and succeeded 44 fewer occasions. That’s not an enormous change, nevertheless it not less than means that stealing third may not be the cakewalk it appeared like in 2023.
I needed to examine in on 2025, so I once more created a set of alternatives to steal third base. I made mine pretty easy – I counted each time there was a runner on second base however not on third and made that the denominator. Each steal that lead runner tried went into the numerator – double steal, delayed steal, all of them depend the identical. Possibly there’s not a lot to see right here:
Then once more, steals of third aren’t working in addition to they used to. Their success charge has dropped from 84.3% in 2023 to 82.2% in 2024 to 80.5% to date this 12 months. I’m sympathetic to the concept that defenders simply wanted a while to regulate to defending this play. Stealing second is one thing that options closely in each recreation that catchers have performed roughly since children began pitching in little league. Stealing third? It’s lots much less widespread, and thus much less drilled.
Groups try to steal third almost twice as usually as they did earlier than the rule modifications; perhaps defenders simply wanted a season or two to regulate to the play in spring coaching. Third basemen, particularly, have a troublesome job with a runner on second, as they must make themselves out there for a throw whereas nonetheless enjoying protection. I’d hardly be shocked if the actual change in steals of third is fewer non-competitive makes an attempt, the place no defender covers the bag and the catcher doesn’t even throw.
So what’s the way forward for the stolen base within the majors? I don’t assume we’ve figured it out but. Groups are operating extra continuously with every passing 12 months, however they’re succeeding much less continuously as defenders modify to the brand new guidelines of the sport. Offenses are nonetheless including loads of worth on the basepaths – consistent with what math tells us concerning the optimum stolen base success charge – and so they’re notably doing so at second base now that defenses are bettering at masking third. If there’s a runner on first with a free base forward of him, you may count on to see a stolen base try about 10% of the time, up from about 6% of the time beneath the outdated guidelines. That’s an enormous change, and one which’s unlikely to revert to the earlier period of basestealing any time quickly.
None of that is static, in fact, which is a part of the issue with early-season baseball evaluation. The Brewers have stolen extra bases than the underside 4 groups in baseball mixed; we’ve by no means seen a full season disparity that giant. The pattern sizes are nonetheless tiny, with lower than a month within the books, and one marauding (or cowardly) week can nonetheless skew the numbers. Chandler Simpson’s call-up alone may change the tempo of stolen base makes an attempt; the person swiped triple digit luggage within the minors final 12 months. However that doesn’t imply we will’t examine in, and to date this 12 months, groups are holding their ft on the fuel pedal and charging forward. Sorry, catchers – seems like you could have extra work to do.
Statistics present via video games of April 21.
