Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Photographs
Maybe it was the batting order switcheroo, or perhaps it was the minor league ballpark. Bumped out of the leadoff spot for the primary time since final August 11, and right down to fifth within the order for the primary time throughout Bruce Bochy’s run as supervisor of the Rangers, Marcus seeds recorded his first multi-hit sport of the season on Tuesday evening in Sacramento. The 34-year-old second baseman went 2-for-3 with a three-run homer, a stroll, a sacrifice fly, and 4 runs batted in towards the Athletics — a much-needed constructive signal given his season-opening droop.
Semien’s huge evening passed off at Sutter Well being Park, the place the relocated A’s and their opponents have bashed out 5.4 runs per sport whereas batting .270/.342/.466. Whether or not or not the venue was an element, Bochy’s new lineup labored like a appeal, as new leadoff hitter Josh Smithnew no. 2 hitter Wyatt Langfordand the slumping Jake Burger all homered for the Rangers as effectively. The entire pictures had been served up by 29-year-old righty Osvaldo Bido; Semien, who had already plated the Rangers’ second run with a first-inning sacrifice fly, crushed a middle-middle sinker 417 toes to middle discipline to interrupt open a 4-2 sport within the fifth inning:
The homer was simply Semien’s second of the season, and simply his third extra-base hit. He entered the sport batting .141/.209/.192 for a 17 wRC+, with all 4 of these numbers rating among the many backside 4 among the many 170 gamers with sufficient plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His new and improved slash line (.160/.231/.247, 39 wRC+) now places him among the many backside 10 qualifiers in these classes, however he isn’t near being the worst on the crew. Pederson sport (.052/.141/.069, -37 wRC+) is having even greater issues, together with an 0-for-3 on Tuesday, however the Rangers don’t have almost as a lot invested in him as they do in Semien, whom they signed to a seven-year, $175 million deal in December 2021.
Because the signing, Semien has been the linchpin of the Rangers’ lineup, combining energy, pace, robust protection, and sturdiness. In his three full seasons with the crew, he’s averaged 161 video games and twice led the majors in plate appearances and at-bats. He’s additionally made two All-Star groups and helped the Rangers win their first World Sequence, and over that span has ranked 14th within the majors in fWAR (14.8) and eighth in bWAR (17.5). By that latter measure, which incorporates his 7.7 bWAR in 2023 — tops amongst American League place gamers, however nonetheless behind the two-way work of Shohei Ohtani (10.0 bWAR) — he’s emerged as one thing of a stealth Corridor of Fame candidate, provided that he’s crossed the 40-WAR threshold for seven-year peak (40.6), a powerful indicator of future election.
All through his 13-year profession with the White Sox, A’s, Blue Jays and Rangers, Semien has confirmed to be one thing of a gradual starter. He’s a profession .239/.311/.392 (95 wRC+) hitter in March and April, in comparison with .257/.324/.448 (112 wRC+) from Could by way of the top of the common season. That’s a considerable distinction; utilizing our Splits Leaderboard device and a few Excel magic, I discovered it to be the Seventeenth-largest hole amongst gamers since 2010 (a cutoff I selected out of skinny air):
Largest wRC+ Distinction Between March/April
and Remainder of Season Since 2010
Minimal 800 plate appearances in March/April and three,500 plate appearances from Could by way of finish of standard season.
Semien ranks within the 81st percentile on this odd cut up, which isn’t at the same time as excessive as that of his double play companion (Seager) however it could assist to clarify his comparative dearth of All-Star alternatives (three) relative to his excellence as a participant. That thought occurred to me after I noticed Francisco Lindor a couple of spots down the record with a 14-point distinction (109 wRC+ in March/April, 123 the remainder of the 12 months) and no All-Star alternatives since 2019.
I don’t have any rationalization for this oddity, nevertheless it persists and it’s apparently not that unusual. Recall that Semien bought off to a equally unhealthy begin in his first 12 months with the Rangers, hitting .157/.226/.217 (26 wRC+) by way of April following the lockout-abbreviated spring coaching of 2022, and whereas his remaining offensive numbers had been unremarkable (.248/.304/.429, 107 wRC+), that was nonetheless good for a 4.4-WAR season due to his wonderful protection. Nonetheless, after a stellar 2023 (.276/.348/.478, 126 wRC+, 6.3 WAR), he slipped to .237/.308/.391 (99 wRC+) with 4.2 WAR final 12 months, so as with all 34-year-old participant, it’s pure to marvel if he’s all of a sudden on the downslope of his profession.
We’re early sufficient within the season that just some statistics are beginning to stabilize, so the conclusions we draw shouldn’t be too agency, however no, I don’t assume that is the start of the top for Semien. A couple of areas of his efficiency do stand out, with most of them merely a bit askew — however throughout the small pattern, the downturn seems to be greater than the sum of its components.
Swing charges begin to stabilize across the 350-pitch threshold, which Semien crossed on Tuesday evening, so it’s noteworthy that he’s swinging extra ceaselessly than ever (51%), up even from final 12 months’s full-season excessive (50%) and effectively above his profession mark (45.4%). His 25% chase fee is a bit beneath final 12 months, however nonetheless about three factors above his profession mark. In reality, Semien is a really disciplined hitter, one who scores effectively in Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which measures the standard of a hitter’s swing choices. He’s been within the ninetieth percentile or above in every of his three full seasons in Texas, together with the 94th percentile final 12 months, however he’s right down to the 84th percentile this 12 months. That’s nonetheless spectacular, in that it’s not like he’s all of a sudden up there taking determined hacks, and it’s up from the 78th percentile, the place he was coming into Tuesday; his huge sport gave most of the stats inside this piece a lift. That stated, his 10% swinging strike fee is his highest mark since 2017, up half a degree over final 12 months and a pair of.2 factors over ’23. Even when he’s making good choices about what to swing at, they’re not fairly nearly as good as typical, and he isn’t connecting as ceaselessly as he as soon as did.
Semien’s swing metrics inform us he’s participant who doesn’t have nice bat pace. Even with the restricted pattern of late-season knowledge from 2023, his 68.7 mph common swing pace positioned within the thirteenth percentile, and he was right down to 68.3 (ninth percentile) final 12 months; this 12 months, he’s at 68.6 (twelfth percentile). His 6.5% quick swing fee could be very low (the main league common is 22.8%), however effectively above final 12 months’s 4.2%, so if something, one wonders if he’s swinging too arduous on the uncommon events that he does dial it up. Each his squared-up and blast charges are down (from 30.7% to 27.3% for the previous, and 9.8% to six.5% for the latter), indicating his high quality of contact is off. He’s by no means lit up the Statcast leaderboard; his barrel charges have been round league common, however his exit velocities and hard-hit charges have positioned within the decrease quartile. Right here’s a have a look at his time with the Rangers:
Marcus seeds GETCAST PROFILE
Season
BBE
EV
LA
Brl%
HH%
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
2022
547
87.3
19.9
6.8%
34.9%
.248
.243
.429
.394
.317
.306
2023
566
88.4
19.1
6.5%
36.7%
.276
.262
.478
.427
.354
.333
2024
546
87.4
17.0
6.6%
35.2%
.237
.251
.391
.391
.306
.313
2025
68
87.6
17.7
8.8%
30.9%
.160
.224
.247
.351
.219
.287
As you may see, there’s not an amazing distinction between this 12 months’s numbers and final 12 months’s; Semien’s barrel fee is at the moment within the 52nd percentile, however his exit velo and hard-hit fee are within the twenty third and fifteenth percentiles, respectively. Regardless of the same performances and the improved barrel fee relative to final 12 months, his anticipated numbers — which he’s far wanting, clearly — have fallen. I think that has so much to do together with his distribution of batted balls to date, because it’s out of whack together with his norms:
Marcus Semien Batted Ball Profile
Season
GB%
Pull%
Pull GB%
Pull Air%
2022
33.6%
43.5%
20.1%
23.4%
2023
34.0%
46.9%
21.8%
25.1%
2024
39.6%
46.0%
21.8%
24.2%
2025
42.6%
50.0%
30.9%
19.1%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Semien is hitting much more grounders than typical, and he’s pulling them much more usually. He’s batting simply .207 on grounders, down from precisely .255 in every of the previous three seasons (uncanny!). That would appear to clarify a part of what’s occurring.
When a participant in his mid-30s begins to wrestle, it’s cheap to wonder if he’s having bother dealing with fastballs. We’re moving into smaller samples inside an already-small pattern, however Semien is doing tremendous towards four-seamers (.333 AVG/.500 SLG, in comparison with .243 AVG/.437 SLG final 12 months). What’s odd is that he’s simply 1-for-20 (.050) towards sinkers, which he dealt with fairly effectively final 12 months (.273 AVG/.405 SLG), if not in addition to the typical main leaguer (.284 AVG/.421 SLG). Of the 18 sinkers he’s put into play, 12 have been grounders. He’s additionally a mixed 1-for-24 towards sliders and sweepers — each of which he struggled towards final 12 months — although of the 19 put in play, solely eight have been grounders.
As to why Semien is hitting extra grounders, and why fewer of these grounders have gotten hits, I can’t say, nevertheless it’s early sufficient that each one of this might very effectively come out within the wash. We’ve seen Semien undergo funks like this earlier than, and with growing frequency throughout his Rangers years:
The variations in Semien’s underlying metrics relative to latest years are small, however they’ve added as much as a really giant drop that, once more, most likely owes a lot to pattern measurement and to the timing of our focus; we wouldn’t discover his droop almost as a lot if it occurred in August, 4 or 5 hundred plate appearances into the season. A season-opening droop inevitably raises questions relating to whether or not a participant has all of a sudden gone over the hill with the flip of the calendar, nevertheless it’s comprehensible if psychological components come into play as effectively. As former YES Community broadcaster Ken Singleton — an distinctive hitter who nonetheless endured some gradual begins — used to say, it’s no enjoyable to lookup at that scoreboard and see that you simply’re nonetheless “caught on the interstate” with a batting common that begins with a 1 (as in, wanting like a capital I).
Whereas the Rangers are off to a 14-9 begin regardless of a -12 run differential, they entered Tuesday ranked twenty fifth within the majors with an 84 wRC+ (.220/.274/.363), and twenty ninth in scoring (3.05 runs per sport). The time was ripe for Bochy to shake issues up.
“I don’t have any say proper now, till I begin getting again to doing what I do,” Semien stated when requested in regards to the lineup previous to the sport. “I’ve no say, in order that’s the place I’m at. I hit some balls arduous final sport. There’s sure days the place I come again into the clubhouse after the sport considering that day might have been so much totally different on the stat sheet, if I discovered the hole right here or there. Nevertheless it hasn’t been that manner proper now. It’s irritating. However like I stated, the Rangers are taking part in effectively. That’s what issues.”
Perhaps the downscaled venue had one thing to do with Semien’s huge evening. “All of us hit effectively within the minors,” he stated afterwards. “So let’s simply faux it’s the minors. That’s how all of us bought right here, perhaps that’s why.”
