John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Photographs
The Braves entered 2024 with excessive hopes for the approaching season, however their marketing campaign resulted in disappointing trend. After making the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, they had been unceremoniously eradicated by the Padres. It’s now been greater than seven months since Atlanta’s early exit, and the calendar has flipped to a brand new season. The identical can’t be stated for the staff’s fortunes.
Certainly, the Braves have began off this yr in a funk, and never of the nice Sly and the Household Stone selection. A season-opening sequence towards the Padres, adopted by a visit to Chavez Ravine for a matchup with the defending-champion Dodgers, left Atlanta with seven losses to begin the season and Reynaldo López on the IL for many, if not all, of 2025. A sweep of the equally underwhelming Minnesota Twins staunched the bleeding considerably, however one other wound opened up quickly after, as Spencer strides strained his hamstring taking part in catch on Monday and returned to the IL only one begin after getting back from main elbow surgical procedure.
A 9-14 begin, even when coupled with the lack of López and Strider, doesn’t make 2025 a misplaced trigger, nevertheless it does complicate issues significantly. Let’s first look again on the ZiPS preseason projections for the NL East standings.
ZiPS Projected Standings – NL East (Preseason)
Staff
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
eightieth
twentieth
Atlanta Braves
89
73
—
.549
35.8%
34.0%
69.8%
7.3%
96.4
81.6
Philadelphia Phillies
89
73
—
.549
34.0%
34.6%
68.6%
6.6%
96.0
81.5
New York Mets
88
74
1
.543
29.5%
35.3%
64.8%
5.6%
95.0
80.7
Washington Nationals
69
93
20
.426
0.5%
3.0%
3.4%
0.0%
76.6
62.3
Miami Marlins
67
95
22
.414
0.2%
1.3%
1.6%
0.0%
73.8
59.0
The ZiPS projection system noticed Atlanta as the favourite, however solely by a hair, with the Mets and Phillies projected to be primarily as harmful because the Braves. There was vital daylight between ZiPS and the FanGraphs Depth Charts projectionswhich pegged Atlanta with a six-win margin over Philadelphia and a seven-win cushion over New York. A big a part of this distinction doubtless comes right down to methodology. Within the FanGraphs projections, for ease of calculation, innings pitched and plate appearances are static, which means that Chris Sale would at all times be projected to throw 182 innings, Ronald Acuña Jr. would at all times be anticipated to take 525 plate appearances, and so forth. ZiPS makes use of a Monte Carlo method, which means that in some projections, Sale would throw these 182 innings, however typically he would attain 190, or solely get to 150, or 100, or typically even 0. Telling ZiPS to match the FanGraphs taking part in time precisely would have given the Braves a 91-win projection and practically the identical margin of victory over their NL East rivals.
So, what’s the distinction? Merely put, ZiPS appreciated the Braves greatest if issues labored out, however because of their lack of depth at most positions, noticed them as much less resilient than the Phillies or Mets ought to issues go unsuitable. Dropping López for a protracted stretch of the season is one thing going very unsuitable. The extent of Strider’s hamstring damage continues to be unknown, at the least publicly, however my private perception is that the staff is unlikely to be aggressive along with his return, contemplating he simply missed a complete yr after present process an inner brace process to reconstruct his UCL.
Coming into 2025, ZiPS noticed the Braves with a .550 roster. Earlier than the beginning of play Tuesday, which is once I ran the projections for this piece, that had declined by 11 factors of profitable share (the identical decline as on our Depth Charts) to a .539 projection. Once more, not deadly, however should you consider the remainder of the season as a footrace starting now, the Braves are beginning off behind the opposite contenders, slightly than even with them.
ZiPS Projected Standings – NL East (4/22/25)
Staff
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
eightieth
twentieth
New York Mets
93
69
—
.574
55.4%
28.5%
83.9%
9.5%
99.2
86.4
Philadelphia Phillies
89
73
4
.549
31.2%
37.9%
69.0%
6.6%
95.6
82.7
Atlanta Braves
84
78
9
.519
13.1%
31.0%
44.1%
3.3%
91.0
77.8
Miami Marlins
69
93
24
.426
0.2%
1.3%
1.5%
0.0%
75.6
62.3
Washington Nationals
69
93
24
.426
0.2%
1.3%
1.5%
0.0%
75.5
62.5
Quite a lot of groups could be pleased with a 44% probability of creating the playoffs, however for Atlanta, it represents the evaporation of greater than a 3rd of its playoff odds in simply three weeks. With the Mets and Phillies each faring properly in April, the Braves have seen an much more vital slashing to their odds to win the NL East, which is down practically two-thirds since Opening Day.
How a lot may a serious addition assist the Braves? How a lot may one other damage hinder them? To reply this query, I reprojected Atlanta’s playoff odds, altering the projected roster strengths in intervals of 5 share factors.
Braves Playoff Chance by Roster Energy (4/22/25)
Roster Energy
Division Chance
Playoff Chance
.499
4.4%
20.9%
.504
5.2%
23.3%
.509
6.0%
25.9%
.514
7.0%
28.8%
.519
8.0%
31.6%
.524
9.1%
34.6%
.529
10.4%
37.7%
.534
11.6%
40.8%
.539
13.1%
44.1%
.544
14.6%
47.4%
.549
16.3%
50.7%
.554
18.2%
53.9%
.559
20.2%
57.2%
.564
22.3%
60.4%
.569
24.6%
63.6%
.574
27.0%
66.7%
.579
29.3%
69.5%
The underside of this chart highlights one of many issues with a state of affairs during which the Braves make an enormous acquisition: The mixture of the present standings and the energy of their opponents limits the utility of an enormous commerce on the subject of profitable the division. And that’s essential on condition that profitable the division is important to have an opportunity at skipping a coin-flippy first spherical of the playoffs. When you add 40 factors of roster energy to the Braves, principally the equal of buying Bobby Witt Jr. or Aaron Choosewhich might not occur with out breaking many state and federal legal guidelines, Atlanta nonetheless wouldn’t get all the best way again to its preseason outlook. The achieve of 16 share factors of divisional chance is lower than you’d get from repeating the identical train with different disappointing April contenders, such because the Orioles (19 factors, 20% to 39%), the Twins (23 factors, 13% to 36%), the Cardinals (25 factors, 7% to 32%), or the Astros (29 factors, 39% to 68%).
Surprisingly sufficient, contemplating a midseason acquisition isn’t prone to have that a lot of an affect, probably the most logical method for the Braves may merely be to try to get everybody wholesome, keep the course, and cross as many fingers as can be found.
Nevertheless, no matter whether or not or not the Braves swing a major swap, if they will make a comeback, they’d higher get began quickly — with out Strider and Acuña, who continues to be at the least just a few weeks away from getting back from his ACL surgical procedure. Even with one other matchup with the Dodgers set for the primary weekend of Could, ZiPS tasks these subsequent few weeks to be the softest remaining stretch of Atlanta’s schedule, with sequence towards the Rockies, Reds, Pirates, and Nationals. For instance this, I projected the NL East standings on Could 23 if every NL East staff performs as much as its projected preseason file for the following month.
ZiPS Projected Standings – NL East (5/23 State of affairs)
Staff
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
eightieth
twentieth
New York Mets
92
70
—
.568
59.1%
27.9%
87.0%
9.8%
97.9
87.1
Philadelphia Phillies
89
73
3
.549
32.0%
40.5%
72.5%
6.8%
94.6
83.7
Atlanta Braves
83
79
9
.512
8.8%
28.5%
37.3%
2.3%
89.0
77.8
Miami Marlins
69
93
23
.426
0.0%
0.5%
0.6%
0.0%
74.3
63.1
Washington Nationals
69
93
23
.426
0.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.0%
74.4
63.5
In different phrases, if over the following month the Braves they merely win as typically as they had been anticipated to again in March, they might see their October possibilities deteriorate additional. They may nonetheless limp into the playoffs as a wild card like they did final yr, however that will be extraordinarily unsatisfying given their optimism coming into the season. No one ever wins a division in April, however you possibly can lose a division in April, and until a turnaround comes quickly, that will simply be what has occurred in Atlanta.
