Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Pictures
Shelby Miller is so previous… (“How previous is he?”)… he received R.A. Dickey to floor out in his first main league inning. He’s so previous he threw greater than 200 innings for the Braves after they have been dangerous. He’s so previous he threw greater than 200 innings in a single season, full cease.
I suppose 34 isn’t that previous, however Miller has lived and died 100 instances throughout his profession in skilled baseball, and if the primary eight appearances of his second go-around with the Diamondbacks are any indication (10 innings, 10 strikeouts, solely 4 whole baserunners), he’s again to life once more.
There was a time, about 13 or 14 years in the past, when Miller was the new pitching prospect in baseball. In 2013, his age-22 season, Miller made 31 begins for the Cardinals, gained 15 of them, and posted a 3.06 ERA. If he hadn’t come of age in a bizarrely loaded rookie class, he might nicely have gone dwelling with {hardware}.
That 2013 NL rookie class deserves a quick digression, as a result of behind the race between José Fernández and Yasiel Puig for the highest spot, there was Hyun Jin Ryu, Julio Teheran, Nolan Arenado, Gerrit Cole, Marcell Ozuna, Anthony Rendonand Christian Yelich — and that’s simply within the Nationwide League. The AL rookie class, in contrast, was extremely forgettable. Wil Myers gained Rookie of the 12 months, forward of Jose Iglesiasand And straily received a first-place vote. JB Shuck of all folks received a second-place vote. The highest six rookies that 12 months, based on WAR, have been within the NL.
Anyway, that’s pretty much as good because it received for the younger Miller, who received traded for Jason Heyward on the finish of 2014, then traded once more to Arizona for a package deal that included Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson 13 months later. From there, he’s had near a decade marred by elbow accidents, ineffectiveness, and pitch tinkering as he’s struggled to beat these first two issues.
Miller’s solely begin since 2019 was a one-inning opener stint for the Dodgers in September 2023. He hasn’t thrown 60 or extra innings in a season since 2016, and he’s posted an ERA beneath 4.00 simply as soon as and an ERA beneath 6.00 simply thrice since 2015, no matter workload.
Since 2018, Miller has been granted free company or launched 10 instances by 9 totally different organizations, however issues have been on a gradual upswing over the previous three years. Miller was excellent in his aforementioned Dodgers stint, with a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings throughout 36 appearances. However his floor numbers weren’t backed up by the peripherals, which included an 11.7% stroll price, a .165 BABIP, and a strand price of just about 90%.
The Tigers took a glance in 2024, and Miller stayed wholesome all 12 months, other than a three-week IL stint for ulnar nerve irritation beginning in mid-Could. However regardless of logging his highest innings whole since 2016 (55 2/3) and posting a 4.53 ERA for a group that leaned closely on its bullpen heading right into a shock playoff run, Miller was waived and launched within the final week of the common season.
That is now 12 months 9 of the Shelby Miller Reconstruction Challenge. Actually, for those who got here into this season nonetheless believing in Miller, that’s not optimism or ready for a post-hype breakout. For those who consider in one thing with out exhausting proof for 9 years, that’s principally a faith.
So is that this 10-inning scoreless streak a miracle, or is there a scientific rationalization?
Let’s tick off the low-hanging fruit: Miller’s throwing more durable. Not by a ton; his fastball is averaging 94.4 mph as an alternative of 93.4, but it surely’s noticeable. This time final 12 months, Miller’s fastball was within the 92s, which merely doesn’t minimize it for a right-handed single-inning reliever.
Extra fascinating: Miller has modified his breaking ball from a slider to a sweeper. The previous slider sat within the excessive 80s, generally bumping into the low 90s, and whereas opponents didn’t precisely tee off on it — they posted a .285 wOBA towards Miller’s slider final 12 months — it had fairly lackluster motion, particularly within the vertical aircraft.
Into the trash that goes. I feel. Baseball Savant has Miller down for 9 sweepers and two sliders this common season, however I’m all however sure that a minimum of a kind of sliders was a classification error. Miller has thrown 184 breaking pitches because the begin of the 2024 common season; 9 of the ten slowest pitches, and eight of the 9 highest spin charges, got here on this 12 months’s sweeper. The one interloper, in each circumstances, is a pitch that received labeled as a slider on April 20 of this 12 months.
The sweeper, along with spinning quicker, strikes horizontally as an alternative of vertically; principally, Miller traded about six miles an hour for 11 inches of horizontal break.
That’s pressured him to make use of his breaking ball in another way. When Miller was throwing a tough slider with extra up-and-down motion, he might throw it to batters on both facet of the plate, and for strikes. This grander breaking ball is extra of a chase pitch.
Crucially, it’s solely a chase pitch towards same-handed batters.
I’ve By no means Seen Shelby Miller’s Sweeper. I’ve Seen the Results of Shelby Miller’s Sweeper.
12 months
Opponent
4-Seamer%
Splitter%
Sweeper/Slider%
2024
RHH
61.5
11.7
26.5
2024
LHH
59.5
26.9
13.3
2025
RHH
66.0
12.8
21.2
2025
LHH
59.5
39.2
1.3
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Right here’s the one breaking ball Miller’s thrown to a lefty this 12 months. It’s the one slider I don’t assume was a coding error.
I don’t know the way lefties didn’t tee off on that pitch final 12 months; it seems like a complete cement mixer. Extra to the purpose, this difficult slider gave Miller virtually no distinction to his fastball and splitter. All 850 pitches Miller threw in 2024 have been contained inside a velocity band of simply 12.8 mph; 845 of these got here in between 84.5 mph and 96.0 mph — a variety of simply 11.5 mph. Miller threw 12 sliders that have been quicker than his slowest four-seamer of the 12 months, and greater than 100 that have been slower than his quickest splitter.
It’s simply probably not clear to me what Miller’s slider was doing for him final 12 months. Now, as an alternative of throwing that — and his splitter — for strikes, Miller is working his secondaries low and out of the zone. And now that he’s throwing pitches outdoors the strike zone extra, batters are obliging him by chasing. Miller’s chase price is fifth amongst certified relievers as of this writing.
What stands out about all this to me is how fundamental all these adjustments are. Spin your breaking ball more durable, change speeds, make hitters chase, throw an off-speed pitch to opposite-handed hitters and a breaking ball to same-handed ones however don’t cross the streams. All of that is stuff I discovered by studying a kids’s biography of Greg Maddux after I was 10, but it surely’s all stuff Miller both wasn’t doing — or wasn’t doing nicely — in 2024.
Now, he’s putting out extra batters, permitting fewer baserunners, producing weaker contact. Even for those who count on some regression, he’s a high-leverage-type reliever now. It’s a miracle. Hallelujah.
