Isaiah J. Downing and Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Photographs
Something price doing is price doing proper, and when it got here to dropping video games, the 2024 White Sox have been the grandmasters of the artwork. Certain, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders had a worse file, however that was an deliberately horrible staff because of an proprietor who despatched the membership’s good gamers over to a different staff they owned, the St. Louis Perfectos. The 1962 Mets edged the Sox in win share, however that infamous staff had the benefit of being an growth membership of their first yr after an growth draft that was so quick on expertise, it resembled a grocery retailer’s bathroom paper aisle in the course of the top of COVID. Final yr’s White Sox have been simply two years faraway from a .500 file, and by all accounts, possession and the entrance workplace meant to truly win video games. A robust file, nonetheless, must be cast within the hearth of latest challengers, and this season, two early contenders have emerged: the Colorado Rockies and the reigning lastpions themselves.
The Rockies are off to a blazing chilly begin and are the present frontrunners with a 4-20 file. For a staff with a successful share in need of .200, Colorado has obtained some surprisingly competent pitching performances, with the 2 major splats being former Cy Younger contender Germán Márquez and high prospect Chase Dollander. The place the Rockies have been stunningly poor is on the offensive facet of issues, with the staff hitting .213/.287/.345 and simply barely averaging three runs per sport. Fourteen hitters have a minimum of 20 plate appearances and greater than half of them have a wRC+ beneath 70. Ryan McMahon’s efficiency is a very low lowlight; the third baseman has 39 strikeouts already because of an out-of-zone contact charge beneath 20%, a quantity so bananas that it seems like a programming glitch that proves our existence is definitely a simulation.
ZiPS thought the Rockies would battle in 2025, however to not this degree. The system’s projection, for a mere 99 losses, even got here with a (very) small probability of Colorado making the playoffs as a Wild Card staff. After Thursday’s video games, I did a full re-simulation of the 2025 season to get a projection for what the Rockies may obtain in the event that they fail to get the wheels again on the cart:
ZiPS Win Projection – Colorado Rockies
Wins
Share
Cumulative
28
0.0%
0.0%
29
0.0%
0.0%
30
0.0%
0.0%
31
0.1%
0.1%
32
0.1%
0.2%
33
0.1%
0.3%
34
0.2%
0.5%
35
0.3%
0.7%
36
0.5%
1.2%
37
0.7%
1.8%
38
0.8%
2.7%
39
1.0%
3.7%
40
1.5%
5.2%
41
1.8%
7.0%
42
2.0%
8.9%
43
2.6%
11.5%
44
2.9%
14.4%
45
3.3%
17.7%
46
4.0%
21.7%
47
4.1%
25.8%
48
4.4%
30.2%
49
4.7%
34.9%
50
5.2%
40.1%
51
5.0%
45.0%
52
5.4%
50.4%
53
5.2%
55.6%
54
5.1%
60.7%
55
5.0%
65.7%
56
4.7%
70.4%
57
4.3%
74.7%
58
4.1%
78.8%
59
3.7%
82.5%
60
3.3%
85.7%
61
2.8%
88.5%
62
2.4%
91.0%
63
1.9%
92.9%
64
1.7%
94.6%
65
1.3%
95.9%
66
1.1%
97.1%
67
0.9%
97.9%
68
0.6%
98.6%
69
0.4%
99.0%
70
0.4%
99.4%
71
0.2%
99.6%
72
0.2%
99.8%
73
0.1%
99.9%
74
0.1%
99.9%
75
0.0%
100.0%
76
0.0%
100.0%
77
0.0%
100.0%
78
0.0%
100.0%
79
0.0%
100.0%
80
0.0%
100.0%
81
0.0%
100.0%
Naturally, the staff’s small sliver of playoff chance has been worn out by April. Within the preseason projections, the Rockies solely had a 1.5% probability of matching 121 losses and a 0.8% probability of setting a brand new file. So whereas the feat was a minimum of believable, it was an extended shot. The chances are nonetheless strongly in opposition to — dropping this many video games is basically exhausting — however seven and 5 p.c are bonafide countin’ numbers.
Colorado’s largest impediment within the pursuit of infamy is that there are actual causes for hope when trying on the roster. As talked about above, Márquez and Dollander have been horrible, however there’s nonetheless a minimum of some remaining probability that the previous can get again to the place he was, and the latter is an elite prospect. Michael Toglia is a Triple-A-caliber first baseman, not a pitcher dragooned into the lineup, and can certainly fall in need of his -6 WAR tempo. Ezequiel Tovar is a greater participant than this, and guys like Zac Veen and Adael Amador have reputable upside. The Rockies merely have a number of saving throws that might result in extra constructive outcomes this yr. The beginning makes it attainable that the Rockies will match the 2024 Sox for futility, however whenever you watch Colorado, your eyes aren’t bodily compelled to stare blurrily into center distance on the Stygian maw, the place nothing will give your frozen gaze succor from the dread of oblivion and Chris Davis‘ contract.
However hey, we nonetheless have the OGs, the White Sox, to take a look at. At 6-19, they’re a sport and a half behind the Rockies for these functions, but when ZiPS is to be believed, they’re a basically worse roster. Chicago’s 52-110 projected file coming into the 2025 season is the worst projection ZiPS has ever given a staff (not counting that article final yr the place I projected how Triple-A groups would fare within the majors):
ZiPS Win Projection – Chicago White Sox
Win
Share
Cumulative
28
0.0%
0.0%
29
0.1%
0.1%
30
0.1%
0.2%
31
0.2%
0.4%
32
0.3%
0.7%
33
0.4%
1.1%
34
0.6%
1.7%
35
0.9%
2.6%
36
1.3%
3.9%
37
1.5%
5.4%
38
1.9%
7.3%
39
2.4%
9.7%
40
2.8%
12.4%
41
3.4%
15.8%
42
3.7%
19.6%
43
4.1%
23.6%
44
4.7%
28.3%
45
5.1%
33.4%
46
5.3%
38.7%
47
5.5%
44.2%
48
5.4%
49.6%
49
5.3%
54.9%
50
5.1%
60.0%
51
5.0%
65.0%
52
4.7%
69.7%
53
4.4%
74.1%
54
4.2%
78.3%
55
3.7%
82.0%
56
3.2%
85.2%
57
2.9%
88.1%
58
2.5%
90.6%
59
2.0%
92.7%
60
1.6%
94.3%
61
1.5%
95.8%
62
1.2%
96.9%
63
0.8%
97.7%
64
0.7%
98.4%
65
0.5%
98.9%
66
0.4%
99.2%
67
0.3%
99.5%
68
0.2%
99.7%
69
0.1%
99.8%
70
0.1%
99.9%
71
0.0%
100.0%
72
0.0%
100.0%
73
0.0%
100.0%
74
0.0%
100.0%
75
0.0%
100.0%
76
0.0%
100.0%
77
0.0%
100.0%
78
0.0%
100.0%
79
0.0%
100.0%
80
0.0%
100.0%
81
0.0%
100.0%
ZiPS offers the White Sox a 16% probability of matching final yr’s loss complete and a 12% probability — higher than the chance of an Aaron Decide homer — of besting it. The place the White Sox and Rockies differ within the pantheon of awful groups is that the Sox are presently configured in a manner that significantly limits their upside. For a rebuilding staff, the beginning lineup is surprisingly outdated and established; gamers like Nick carpet, Michael A. Taylorand Matt Thaiss have a use as function gamers on a great staff, however the ceiling on their efficiency is kind of low. Presently injured gamers equivalent to Josh Rojas and Mike Tauchman are in the identical boat. The Sox have constructed a Triple-A-caliber staff with a roster that appears like one. When you had been overseas and behind on the baseball information and somebody gave you a printout of this roster with “Charlotte Knights” on the high, would it not instantly register as incorrect?
That’s to not say there aren’t any gamers with upside. I really just like the return the Sox obtained for Garrett Crochetand suppose that Kyle Teel, Chase MeiiThothand Braden Montgomery may all have futures within the majors. Shane Smith has been a spotlight for me as a starter, and I’m completely digging Brandon Eized’s scorching begin as a junk-tossing Doug Jones-esque reliever, an archetype you don’t see fairly often in fashionable baseball. However the prospects gained’t be outstanding shortly sufficient, and the fascinating pitchers are too few, to present this staff an actual sense of short-term optimism.
There’s even an opportunity that each groups tie or set the file, with the Rockies and White Sox each a minimum of tying the file in 1% of simulations and each beating the file in 0.6% of the runs. It’s too quickly to identified whether or not we’ll see a real Lossapalooza or merely two ordinarily awful groups come September, however it’s enjoyable to dream… darkly.
