Steven Bisig-Ign Imapages
Jorge Polanco has at all times been hitter. He has a profession 111 wRC+, and since he began getting common taking part in time in 2016, he’s completed with a wRC+ beneath 100 solely 3 times, one in every of which was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. However he’s performed 20 video games to this point this season, and he’s by no means had a 20-game stretch fairly like this. He’s batting .377 with a 233 wRC+. How is Polanco – whereas injured – operating the fifth-best xwOBA in baseball and second-best general batting line?
As I discussed, Polanco isn’t 100%. He underwent surgical procedure in October to restore his left patellar tendon, and soreness in that knee has already price him a few video games this season. Polanco has additionally been coping with a minor indirect pressurewhich has saved him from hitting right-handed since March 31. Polanco has a profession 118 wRC+ as a lefty and a 95 wRC+ as a righty. That’s a reliable platoon cut up, nevertheless it’s not large enough that we must always have anticipated him to show into Babe Ruth as soon as he stop batting right-handed. Furthermore, it’s a must to think about that the harm is slowing him down at the least barely, even from the left facet. Perhaps I’m flawed right here, nevertheless it’s simply onerous to imagine that any baseball swing might be fully unaffected by an indirect harm.
Simply to recap, Polanco has a minor harm. He’s solely batting left-handed and (except for one plate look that ended with a strikeout) solely going through righties. He’s additionally DHing and getting days off to guard the indirect. Oh, and he’s been the most effective hitter in baseball (non-Aaron Choose division). So let’s determine what’s happening. We’ll begin with the fundamentals. Listed here are Polanco’s numbers from every of the 5 most up-to-date seasons.
Jorge Polanco’s Final 5 Seasons
Season
BB%
Ok%
ISO
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
2021
7.0
18.3
.235
.282
.269
.323
.503
2022
14.4
21.3
.171
.269
.235
.346
.405
2023
10.5
25.7
.199
.310
.255
.335
.454
2024
9.8
29.2
.141
.274
.213
.296
.355
2025
4.0
12.0
.362
.352
.377
.405
.739
To start with, Polanco is placing the ball in play an awfully excessive share of the time. He’s operating a stroll charge that’s lower than half of his profession mark. His strikeout charge is lower than half of what he posted in both of the previous two seasons. Final yr, he put the ball in play 60% of the time. This yr he’s at 84%. He’s swinging lots and making a number of contact. He’s hitting for a excessive BABIP, and I’m certain he’s benefitting from a little bit of batted ball luck, however most of this manufacturing is concerning the .362 remoted slugging share. That’s to not say that we’re not coping with small pattern dimension luck right here — I undoubtedly suppose we’re, and we’ll get to that later — however for now, the takeaway is that Polanco has turn out to be rather more aggressive on the plate and began slugging extra. That’s what’s happening right here. Polanco is swinging lots, and he’s actually, actually slugging.
He’s additionally swinging the bat more durable. To some extent that is smart. In the course of the very finish of the 2023 season, Polanco had a 71.2-mph common bat pace from the left facet. That dropped to 70.2 throughout 2024, when he was restricted by a sequence of knee and hamstring accidents that culminated within the surgical procedure. He was actually banged up. This season, he’s as much as 71.6 mph. Nonetheless, that’s nonetheless beneath the league common. Polanco could also be again to regular, and even barely higher than he was in 2023 (a yr when he additionally handled some knee and hamstring points), nevertheless it’s not like he’s all of the sudden changed into Giancarlo Stanton. His bat pace is okay, however by itself, it’s not the explanation he’s unstoppable.
So Polanco is swinging more durable, and he’s very undoubtedly hitting the ball more durable.
His 56.9% hard-hit charge from the left facet is method higher than something he’s completed over the course of a complete season, and even over a single month (except for June 2024, when he performed in simply 5 video games). So is he swinging at higher pitches? Is he hammering fastballs? Not likely. As an alternative, he’s hammering the whole lot prefer it’s a fastball.
That is the place issues get bizarre. Regardless of this drastic enhance in onerous contact, Polanco’s Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity has principally stayed the identical for the final a number of years. So though he’s hitting the ball onerous rather more usually and his common EV is method up, it’s not like he’s discovered a brand new stage of energy. And as I discussed, it’s not like his plate self-discipline is a lot better; he’s hitting the ball more durable, however not as a result of he’s selecting higher pitches to hit. He’s simply squaring the whole lot up, particularly offspeed pitches. As a lefty, Polanco has a .582 wOBA and .586 xwOBA towards offspeed stuff this season. His earlier highs had been each below .335. Polanco remains to be whiffing at roughly 28% of the offspeed and breaking pitches he sees, similar to he at all times has. However within the 27 instances he has made contact, he’s crushed the ball.
In case you’ve been watching him this season, you’ll know that Polanco additionally seems totally different on the plate. He got here up in 2015, and in 2019, he switched to a really open stance. That stance had stayed roughly the identical through the years. Till this season.
He has held onto that slight pressure, through which he leans again along with his shoulders rolled additional away from the pitcher than his hips. Nonetheless, he now not has an open stance. In actual fact, by the point the pitcher releases the ball, his stance is barely closed. He’s additionally extra upright within the field, and his palms are beginning out a lot nearer to his ear.
The mechanics are totally different too, quieter. Polanco’s leg kick is rather more refined, and he’s drastically diminished his hand load. The 2 footage beneath are from the second the pitcher releases the ball. Each pitches are four-seamers over the center that he crushed. Within the photograph on the left, which exhibits a plate look from 2024, you possibly can’t see Polanco’s palms in any respect, however you possibly can see his elbow sticking method again behind him. His bat is wrapped, in order that the barrel is going through the pitcher barely. The photograph on the suitable is from this season, and there are Polanco’s palms, just about proper the place they began out. At this level, his leg isn’t raised in any respect.
Gamers make these sorts of adjustments when their aim is to prioritize timing and quickness. This can be a less complicated swing, and normally the aim of simplifying your swing is to ensure you’re on time. It helps you prioritize quickness. It appears to be working. Based on Baseball Savant’s new batting stance metrics, Polanco’s common level of contact is farther out in entrance of house plate.
In all, it makes for a shorter stroke, and the change on the finish is much like the change at the start. You may see it within the full swings above. When Polanco finishes his swing this season, his comply with by way of tends to not whip him round fairly as far. He seems extra linear, much less rotational than he did final season. He’s counting on shorter, extra explosive actions reasonably than longer ones. That helps clarify why, regardless that he’s seen such a drastic enchancment in bat pace, his common swing size has solely elevated by simply over an inch.
I ought to cease for a second and be clear that I’m simply speaking about Polanco’s left-handed swing right here. His right-handed stance has by no means been fairly so open, and he hasn’t closed it this yr. Nonetheless, he has appeared to simplify his load in the identical method from the suitable facet.
Time for an additional fast recap. Polanco is more healthy, type of. He’s drastically overhauled his swing to prioritize quickness, and he’s gained a number of bat pace with out making his swing for much longer. He’s making contact farther out in entrance of the plate, hitting the ball more durable, and hitting much more line drives. It’s not simply the road drives both. His launch angles generally have turn out to be rather more concentrated.
That’s at all times factor. Polanco is never hitting lazy fly balls or routine groundouts. Nonetheless, I want to finish by throwing some chilly water on what you’ve simply learn. It’s at all times thrilling whenever you see a swing change that pairs up so neatly with the participant’s outcomes, however I have to level out a couple of issues.
The primary is clear. Regression will come for Polanco sooner or later. I don’t suppose anyone is anticipating him to maintain hanging out in Aaron Choose territory indefinitely. He’ll cool off sooner or later, and his large 29% HR/FB charge will come right down to Earth. As a result of he’s by no means strolling and by no means putting out, his recreation is extraordinarily BABIP dependent, which results in streakiness, similar to we’ve been seeing. Presumably, he’s not simply going to hit scalding line drives endlessly, as a result of folks have a tendency not to do this.
The second is that the graph I confirmed you at the start of this chart was barely deceptive. It was a 20-day rolling common of his wRC+, and it made it very clear that Polanco had by no means had a 20-game run just like the one he’s on proper now. He’s by no means even come all that shut. However I have to remind you that Polanco is simply batting left-handed. He’s sitting towards lefty starters and getting pulled towards lefty relievers. He’s made solely 75 plate appearances this season, and he’s reached 5 plate appearances in a recreation solely 5 instances. So whereas he’s appeared in 20 video games, he’s solely accrued roughly 15 video games’ value of plate appearances. Principally, I used to be asking the flawed query. The higher one is that this: Has Polanco ever had a 15-game stretch just like the one he’s been on this season? Sure, many instances.
Needless to say Polanco is normally a switch-hitter, so every of these different peaks got here whereas he was additionally watering down his efficiency with worse hitting from the suitable facet. For that cause, I additionally pulled Polanco’s efficiency from simply the left facet of the plate and made my very own 15-day rolling graph of his wOBA.
When you throw out right-handed plate appearances, you see that Polanco has had higher stretches in recent times. We’re completely seeing one thing nice, however we’re not essentially seeing one thing new. His bat pace is again to roughly the place it was in 2023. He Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity hasn’t modified. His swing-happy strategy will most likely meet up with him sooner or later as pitchers alter to it. Primarily based on these metrics, I’m unsure we will persuade ourselves that Polanco is a wholly new hitter.
That mentioned, I like his swing adjustments. I don’t care as a lot about whether or not or not he has an open stance, however I like that he was in a position to simplify his swing a lot with out sacrificing any bat pace. I feel that’s nice and it actually might be affecting his bat path, serving to him exit and assault the ball and contributing to all these squared-up baseballs and line drives. I actually hope Polanco holds onto these positive factors, and I additionally hope he sees an analogous enchancment from the suitable facet as soon as he’s totally wholesome. However I feel we’re going to want an even bigger pattern dimension earlier than we resolve if that’s prone to occur.
