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The Boston Crimson Sox dropped to a .500 file over the weekend, however that little bit of unpleasantness was overshadowed by the lack of beginning first baseman Triston Casas to a severe knee damage. Operating to first in the course of the first of a three-game set towards the Twins on Friday, Casas collapsed out of the blue whereas making an attempt to beat out a sluggish curler fielded by the pitcher, Joe Ryan. It was revealed on Saturday that Casas had ruptured his left patellar tendon, and on Sunday he underwent surgical procedure. With out Casas, the second-place Sox should rethink their short-term choices at first base, ideally earlier than they fall too far behind within the AL East.
Boston might discover no trigger for optimism to place a constructive spin on what occurred. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow got here proper out and mentioned the staff doesn’t anticipate Casas to return in 2025. So, in case you had been hoping the primary baseman may sneak again in time for the playoffs, that seems to be extremely unlikely.
So what does this imply for Casas? Nicely, from a baseball standpoint — slightly than a rehabilitation one, as I’m even much less certified to make medical pronouncements than Dr. Nick Riviera — coming into the season, ZiPS noticed Casas as a solidly common first baseman, with a projected slash line of .246/.350/.462, a 125 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR. That final quantity was on the low aspect just because ZiPS projected him to play in solely 108 video games, partially attributable to his being platooned prior to now but additionally owing to his historical past of accidents. I expressed some concern about his profile within the preseason due to his struggles with making contact.
Casas was off to a sluggish begin this 12 months, hitting .182/.277/.303 with a bleak 58 wRC+. That’s worrisome for any participant, however much more so for a platoon first baseman with out a lot defensive worth. All 27 video games he began this season got here towards a righty. April’s gonna April, however the dangerous begin did put a little bit of a damper on his long-term outlook. Crank out some projections, ZiPS-o-Matic!
ZiPS Projection – Triston Casas (Pre-Harm)
12 months
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.240
.338
.439
396
49
95
20
1
19
61
57
115
0
113
1.1
2027
.239
.339
.435
402
50
96
20
1
19
63
59
115
0
112
1.1
2028
.240
.341
.436
404
50
97
20
1
19
63
60
113
0
113
1.1
2029
.240
.342
.437
400
50
96
20
1
19
62
60
111
0
113
1.1
2030
.238
.340
.425
390
47
93
20
1
17
59
58
108
0
110
0.9
With out factoring in his damage, Casas’ struggles to begin 2025 prompted a transparent drop-off in his next-five-years projections, although I don’t personally suppose it was sufficient to essentially change our notion of him. He’s nonetheless a power-hitting first baseman you’d be blissful to have in your lineup, however he’s not a significant star to construct round. As an apart, ZiPS is way much less fearful than the Crimson Sox are about letting Casas face left-handers; he’s projected for a .226/.317/.395 line towards southpaws in 2026. That’s not splendid, nevertheless it’s additionally not an unusually giant platoon cut up for a left-handed slugger.
ZiPS is conscious of accidents, however primarily in hindsight; it components within the time missed after the actual fact as a result of I don’t like being the place of diagnosing present accidents. However on this case, as a result of we all know that Casas’ rest-of-season projection is nearly definitely going to be zero plate appearances, I don’t thoughts breaking the principles and telling ZiPS that 2025 is over and Casas missed greater than 100 video games with a knee damage.
ZiPS Projection – Triston Casas (Together with 2025 Harm)
12 months
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.236
.337
.430
309
40
73
16
1
14
48
46
92
0
110
0.7
2027
.234
.334
.421
325
41
76
17
1
14
51
48
94
0
107
0.6
2028
.236
.338
.429
331
43
78
17
1
15
51
50
95
0
110
0.7
2029
.235
.337
.422
327
41
77
17
1
14
50
49
93
0
108
0.6
2030
.231
.334
.414
311
39
72
16
1
13
47
47
89
0
105
0.5
As you possibly can see, the season-ending damage has barely soured his projection. But when there’s a silver lining right here, it’s that Casas’ recreation isn’t actually based mostly on velocity, which means that ZiPS expects the general long-term influence of the knee damage to be much less for him than it could be for a quicker runner. Against this, after I run the identical projection for Jaren Duran after giving him a severe knee damage — Sorry, Jarren! — his projected 2026 WAR declines from 3.5 to 2.2 WAR.
Casas must be again in 2026, however the Crimson Sox should reply the query of what to do at first base for the subsequent 5 months. Romy Gonzalez has been Casas’ platoon accomplice this 12 months, and at .327/.382/.449, he’s hit properly in his 55 plate appearances as of Monday morning. However he’ll most likely lose 100 factors or so from his present .421 BABIP, so it’s unrealistic that he’ll sustain that line. That mentioned, he has been making exhausting contact this season, with a hard-hit charge approaching 60%, up from 50% final 12 months, which means that his manufacturing is just not a stone-cold fluke, both. ZiPS tasks Gonzalez to publish a 107 wRC+ the remainder of the season, an affordable efficiency for a Plan B first baseman, however the Crimson Sox must be a bit extra formidable than settling for affordable, particularly when the participant in query is extra of a substitute utilityman than a real first baseman.
However whom ought to they aim then? That’s the tougher query. Rafael Devers would appear to be the probably inside choice, and the staff hasn’t explicitly dominated that out, however I wouldn’t be shocked if the Crimson Sox determined to not change his place once more contemplating how he responded once they moved him off third base after signing Alex Bregman. On this case, maybe discretion is the higher a part of valor. Boston additionally doesn’t look like inclined to briefly transfer to prospect Roman Anthony to first base.
Outdoors the group, pickings are slim in the intervening time, as few groups have fully given up on the season. Andrew Vaughn might be out there, and his peripherals counsel that he’s carried out higher than his precise numbers throughout his brutal begin, however I’m undecided Boston actually needs a reclamation venture right here. The lately demoted Jake Burger would end in the identical objection. If the Nats are involved in buying and selling Nathaniel Lowehe could also be the most suitable choice on the market, and he’s not a free agent till after subsequent season, although which may make them much less more likely to transfer him. And the Brewers most likely aren’t but at a degree the place they’d let go of Rhys Hoskins for affordable. Anthony Rizzo remains to be a free agent, and Jon Singleton is now in Triple-A with the Mets, but when these are the 2 greatest choices on the market, I feel the Crimson Sox can be higher off simply rolling with Romy. (I wish to see Marcelo Mayer get a while at first, however that’s largely so I could make some type of lame Romy and Marcelo’s Excessive Faculty Reunion joke.)
The damage to Casas doesn’t doom his future outlook an excessive amount of, nor does it shatter Boston’s probabilities to contend this season, however the Crimson Sox must determine what they wish to do right here pretty rapidly. Positive, the influence of any first base transfer can be restricted, however even a marginal improve might make a distinction in a good AL East race.
