John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Pictures
I didn’t count on this from Wilyer Abreu. Don’t get me improper. I like Abreu and I spent a lot of the offseason writing about him. I even developed a (literal) sliding scale to tabulate simply how usually and the way intensely he dirtied his uniform. Abreu is a high-effort participant who completely deserved the Rookie of the Yr votes and Gold Glove he acquired final season. However I apprehensive about him too. Abreu has accomplished nothing however hit and play nice protection since his 2023 debut, however he’s a lefty who’s been strictly platooned, and he solely just lately reached a full season’s value of huge league plate appearances. He appeared like a regression candidate, and that was earlier than a gastrointestinal sickness price him a bit of spring coaching and a number of other kilos. The Purple Sox weren’t even certain he’d be prepared to start out the season, however he was and he’s raked from day one. After this scorching begin, ought to we be all-in on Abreu?
First, I used to be apprehensive a bit about Abreu’s protection. I didn’t count on him to show right into a pumpkin. He actually was the very best proper fielder in baseball final season by just about any measure you’ll be able to considerand I anticipated him to stay nice. Though he’s not a speedster, his instincts and energy have allowed him to make three three-star catches, two four-star catches, and one five-star catch this season. Nonetheless, a ton of his worth final 12 months got here from 9 assists, and as I wrote within the Positional Energy Rankings, that’s a unstable stat. You’ll be able to’t simply count on somebody to rack up assists 12 months after 12 months, if for no different motive than the truth that phrase will get out a couple of rocket arm like Abreu’s. These gaudy out totals would flip into smaller credit for retaining runners from taking additional bases. Or so I assumed.
Abreu has already tallied three assists, together with the one above, which is about as good a throw as you’ll ever see. Total, he ranks within the prime 5 amongst proper fielders in DRS, OAA, and FRV. I needn’t have apprehensive concerning the protection.
The offense is the massive query, although. Abreu put up a 135 wRC+ over a 28-game cup of espresso in 2023. He adopted it up with a 114 wRC+ in his full-season debut, and he’s now as much as 167. He’s by no means not hit, and now he’s hitting higher than ever. How a lot ought to we belief his early-season stats?
Let’s begin with the unhealthy information. Abreu remains to be being strictly platooned. Earlier this 12 months, I puzzled whether or not his wonderful total displaying in 2024 may earn him an actual shot at being an on a regular basis participant somewhat than a platoon participant. He ran only a 48 wRC+ in his restricted pattern towards lefties final season, however his excellence with the glove and on the bases may offset that some, and since the Purple Sox are bursting with thrilling younger outfielders, requiring a platoon companion is a little bit of a drag on the roster. Nonetheless, Abreu is being platooned much more tightly this season. After going through lefties simply 15% of the time in 2024, he’s all the way down to 12% to this point this season. Abreu has simply 17 PAs towards lefties in 2025, far too little to glean any significant info, however for what it’s value, he has run significantly better chase, whiff, stroll, and strikeout charges in that small pattern.
OK. Protection is out of the best way. Platoon considerations are out of the best way. Now we get to speak concerning the enjoyable stuff. Prepared? Right here we go.
Abreu is raking! Final 12 months, he ran a .336 wOBA off a .317 xwOBA. He appeared like perhaps he was getting a hair fortunate. This season, he’s acquired a .416 wOBA and a .426 xwOBA. His BABIP is nearly an identical to final season’s. He’s now not getting fortunate. He’s simply hitting approach higher. His 1.8 WAR ranks twelfth amongst place gamers, and his 167 wRC+ means he’s the eighth-best certified hitter within the sport. I had been ready to jot down this text till Abreu had his first droop of the season. I didn’t wish to leap on the bandwagon too quickly. However that droop has come and gone. It turned out to be brief and Abreu has gone proper again to mashing.
It’s nonetheless early. That is nonetheless only a scorching begin. However seeing that blue line climb proper again up into the 200s is a really encouraging signal.
It’s time to look below the hood to see what Abreu is doing in a different way this season. The topline stats inform us very clearly the place to look. Abreu is hanging out approach much less, strolling far more, and slugging a ton.
Walks, Strikeouts and Slug
Season
BB%
Ok%
ISO
2023
10.6
27.1
.158
2024
8.9
28.0
.206
2025
15.0
21.4
.286
With such big adjustments in stroll and strikeout charges, we’d count on to see that Abreu is being way more selective on the plate, and his chase charge is certainly approach down. Abreu swung at 28% of pitches outdoors the zone final season, however he’s down at 23% this season. In the meantime, his swing charge contained in the zone has climbed 10 proportion factors, from 68% to 78%. I didn’t label the GIF beneath, as a result of the distinction is straightforward to see. What’s blue and white and now not pink throughout? Wilyer Abreu’s 2025 swing warmth map.
It’s the one with the pink concentrated within the coronary heart of the plate. Abreu is way more aggressive there and far, a lot much less aggressive beneath the strike zone and on the within nook. He’s making extra contact and doing extra injury a bit greater within the zone than he did final season. There’s a motive for that individual sample. Abreu has been way more picky relating to gentle stuff. He’s acquired a five-point drop in his chase charge total, however towards breaking and offspeed pitches, that drop is almost 16 factors.
Abreu is recognizing and spitting on gentle stuff like by no means earlier than, however he’s extra aggressive towards fastballs and pitches contained in the zone. That doesn’t sound significantly fluky. That simply seems like somebody who’s improved his pitch recognition. The truth is, it appears to be like like his entire strategy has modified, which is shocking.
Abreu informed reporters earlier than the season, “Final 12 months was an excellent 12 months, so when it comes to the best way I put together, I simply wished to maintain every part the very same. I acquired actually good outcomes, so I’m not altering something.” However check out the screenshots beneath. The 2024 batting stance on the left appears to be like very totally different from the 2025 stance on the fitting.
In response to Baseball Americathe Purple Sox requested Abreu to shut his stance some after they acquired him from the Astros within the 2022 Christian Vázquez commerce. Nonetheless, Abreu undoubtedly has a brand new, way more open stance this 12 months. His torso shouldn’t be fairly so vertical, but it surely’s nonetheless closed off. Solely his decrease half has opened up. Final 12 months, his entrance foot was turned aggressively inward like Juan Soto’s, however this season, it’s roughly perpendicular to the pitcher. He’s additionally ditched his leg kick in favor of a toe faucet. That’s a number of adjustments for somebody who didn’t plan on making any. However it’s not simply how he appears to be like. Abreu’s strategy can be affecting his contact high quality. It’s time to dive into that .298 ISO.
After hitting 15 homers in 2024, Abreu already has 9. He’s within the prime 10 in homers, slugging, and remoted slugging. However right here’s the factor. His contact high quality is nearly precisely the identical because it was final 12 months. His ninetieth percentile exit velocity is up slightly, however his common exit velocity and hard-hit charge are practically an identical. His bat velocity is down a tick, and if you happen to solely take a look at pitches contained in the strike zone, his exit velocity is decrease, too.
Abreu has come by all that additional energy by lifting the ball way more usually. His groundball charge has fallen from 34% to 27%. This season, 25% of his batted balls have been pulled within the air, up from 22% final 12 months. Not solely that, however when Abreu does pull the ball within the air, he’s added practically 2 mph of exit velocity and simply over seven proportion factors of hard-hit charge from 2024. On different kinds of balls, his exit velocity is down. To be clear, as a result of he hits the ball so exhausting, Abreu doesn’t essentially have to tug the ball within the air to achieve success. A 91.5-mph common exit velocity and 50.6% hard-hit charge will play in all components of the ballpark. That’s doubly true at Fenway Park, the place lefties at all times have the possibility to dump the ball off the Inexperienced Monster for a double. Abreu did that 5 instances final 12 months, however he’s solely hit one ball off the Monster to this point this 12 months.
We’re nonetheless coping with a small pattern dimension. Abreu has put simply 89 balls in play this season. His edge charge – the share of pitches on the perimeters of the strike zone – is among the many lowest in baseball. That’s a fluky stat that may make his swing selections look higher than they are surely. It’s in all probability associated to the truth that his contact charge contained in the zone has gone approach up whereas his contact charge outdoors the zone is approach down. That’s normally unsustainable, and it may disguise a couple of flaws. Nonetheless, Abreu actually appears to be like totally different on the plate. He’s acquired a brand new stance, he’s shedding gentle stuff, he’s centered on pitches up over the center of the plate, and he’s attending to his energy when he pulls the ball within the air. These sound like real strategy adjustments. His edge charge and phone charges will doubtless stability out some, and after they do, they’ll enhance his whiff charge and convey down his contact high quality numbers. However even after that occurs, this profile will provide quite a bit to be enthusiastic about going ahead.
