Steven Bisig-Ign Imapages
Cal Raleigh has quite a lot of energy. That’s at all times been his calling card, a minimum of on offense. In every of his three full main league seasons, he’s posted a below-average OBP and an above-average offensive line. In cavernous T-Cell Park, the toughest place to hit in baseball, his 34 residence runs and .436 slugging proportion in 2024 had been downright titanic. This 12 months, although, he’s tapped into one thing new.
Or, nicely, his outcomes are completely one thing new. One very attention-grabbing factor about Raleigh’s spectacular 2025: It hasn’t come from extra uncooked energy. Most exit velocity? Nothing new for Raleigh. Neither is his common exit velocity, nor his hard-hit price, each of that are broadly in keeping with 2024. His bat pace is identical. When he’s attempting to hit a house run, he’s doing it the way in which he at all times has.
However whereas his means to hit baseballs laborious may be the identical because it’s at all times been, he’s demonstrating that means extra typically than ever earlier than. He’s each placing the ball within the air and pulling his elevated contact extra continuously, and extra of his batted balls are barrels, too. He’s putting out much less continuously, with a career-high contact price and career-low swinging strike price.
Nothing is ever so easy that it’s pushed by one factor, however I feel there’s one essential change driving Raleigh’s surge. It’s one thing he’s been working towards for a number of years, in truth. When Raleigh is forward within the rely and pitchers throw him meatballs over the center of the plate, he’s swinging lower than ever earlier than:
Cal Raleigh’s Coronary heart Swing%, Forward In Depend
12 months
Swing%
2021
83.7%
2022
85.0%
2023
76.1%
2024
77.9%
2025
73.4%
Wait, that doesn’t sound like a great factor. Raleigh used to feast when he received forward within the rely, unleashing his fearsome swing virtually every time he noticed a pitch to drive. Now he’s swinging at a league-average price. These are the very best pitches within the sport to be hitting. If you wish to show extra energy with out getting stronger or swinging tougher, providing at extra of those is simply the ticket. However Raleigh is swinging at them much less whereas hitting for extra energy. What offers?
What offers is that the statistic I simply gave you is a bit deceptive with out further context. Positive, Raleigh isn’t taking fairly as a lot benefit of the straightforward pitches he sees when he’s already forward within the rely. However he’s additionally swinging at unhealthy pitches in these conditions much less continuously. Listed below are a number of methods of measuring that: swings within the “shadow-out” zone, which is simply off the perimeters of the plate, swings within the “chase” zone simply previous that, and swings on all pitches which might be out of the zone:
Cal Raleigh’s Swing Charges by Location, Forward in Depend
12 months
Shadow-Out%
Chase%
Out of Zone%
2021
52.2%
47.1%
42.6%
2022
47.2%
22.5%
30.8%
2023
52.3%
14.1%
30.6%
2024
48.3%
20.4%
31.9%
2025
45.5%
17.9%
25.8%
Not all three are profession lows, however they’re all indicative of a special strategy. Raleigh has at all times been a high-swing man. Even this 12 months, he’s chasing pitches exterior of the strike zone extra typically than the league common. However in 2025, he’s holding again like by no means earlier than.
One attainable clarification right here is that Raleigh is studying to command the strike zone. Perhaps he’s discovered plate self-discipline after years of struggling to differentiate balls from strikes. He’s strolling extra typically and putting out much less continuously. However I don’t assume that’s fairly proper as a result of, once more, his swing price on pitches over the center of the plate has declined. As an alternative, what we’re seeing from Raleigh will not be a lot an enchancment in ability however a change in strategy.
Think about two sorts of swings, one good and one unhealthy. Swinging at a pitch over the center of the plate? That’s good. Swinging at a pitch that’s not even close to the border of the zone? That’s unhealthy. These are coronary heart swing price and chase/waste swing price, respectively. The upper the hole between these two, the higher a batter has carried out on the core perform of pitch choice: Attacking the easy-to-hit ones and shedding those which might be clearly out of the zone. Raleigh isn’t enhancing on this entrance. The truth is, he’s at a profession low, a minimum of when you exclude his abbreviated 2021 debut:
Good Swings vs. Unhealthy Swings
12 months
Coronary heart%
Chase/Waste%
Hole
2021
85.0%
28.7%
56.3%
2022
82.2%
19.8%
62.4%
2023
76.7%
17.2%
59.5%
2024
78.9%
19.4%
59.5%
2025
77.3%
18.7%
58.6%
You’ll be able to consider plate self-discipline as the mixture of two separate axes. First, there’s pitch recognition. The very best guys at this – Kyle Tucker, Corey Seager, Aaron Choose, Juan Soto – are specialists at telling strikes from balls. That is the toughest a part of commanding the strike zone. You probably have this ability, good for you! It seems to be very tough to be taught, with few hitters taking huge leaps ahead from one 12 months to the following. Raleigh isn’t any exception, as that ratio of swings at hittable pitches to unhealthy chases suggests.
The second a part of plate self-discipline is simply propensity to swing. On the excessive, a hitter may simply select by no means to swing in a given rely; then he’d have a 0% chase price in that rely it doesn’t matter what. This isn’t the identical as appropriately figuring out balls from strikes. Tucker and Seager swing much more than Soto does regardless of their equally elite means to choose up on what the pitcher is throwing. James Wooden sports activities an affordable chase price, however that’s partially as a result of he virtually by no means swings; he has one of many lowest coronary heart swing charges within the league.
Altering your means on that first axis is, as I discussed, practically unattainable. Everybody would do it if they might, and one path is clearly higher than the opposite. The second axis, propensity to swing, is extra difficult. Swinging extra total isn’t inherently good or unhealthy. If Soto and Lars Nootable began swinging much less, they’d virtually definitely harm their numbers. If Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper began swinging extra, they’d probably see a downturn in manufacturing, as a result of they’re already fairly aggressive.
That brings us again to Raleigh. Right here’s a easy mannequin in my head: Raleigh is a low-contact, high-power hitter. These two issues are elementary. He’s not selecting to be one or the opposite, he simply is. I gathered a cohort of hitters who regarded, in a broad sense, like Raleigh in 2024. These had been hitters who batted a minimum of 500 occasions, posted a contact price a minimum of half a typical deviation beneath league common, and posted an remoted energy a minimum of half a typical deviation above league common. In plain English, we’re speaking about low-contact, high-power hitters.
That gave me a gaggle of 15 hitters from 2024: Raleigh, Harper, Choose, Willy Adames, Shohei Ohtani, Shea Langeliers, Eugenio Suárez, Rafael Devers, Jake Burger, Colton Cowser, Marcell Ozuna, Kyle Schwarber, Teoscar Hernández, Brent Rooker, ELLY DE LA CRUZ. It’s a small pattern, after all, however all of those guys batted a ton in 2024, and I’m largely in desirous about these teams when it comes to archetypes. With these 15 in hand, I separated them by their swing charges – low, medium, and excessive. Let’s put it this manner: For hitters like Raleigh, decrease swing charges appear to work wonders:
Low-Contact, Excessive-Energy Hitters, By Swing Fee
Group
BB%
Okay%
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
Low Swing%
14.5%
27.8%
.271
.381
.544
158
Medium Swing%
9.6%
26.7%
.271
.345
.514
136
Excessive Swing%
9.5%
25.3%
.252
.329
.474
123
Positive, swinging much less leads to a couple extra strikeouts. But it surely additionally grants batters much more walks in return, and it’s additionally related to the next slugging proportion. It’s not laborious to think about why that may be the case: In the event you swing so much with a low contact price, you’ll find yourself behind in a ton of counts, and the sorts of pitches you see whereas behind usually are not conducive to hitting for energy. The entire gamers we’re taking a look at nonetheless managed to crush the ball. In the event you’re a high-swing, low-contact hitter, in spite of everything, you higher have some energy. However amongst whiff-prone boppers, the group that swings much less celebrates extra.
Certainly, the proof that Raleigh is making this alteration is in all places. The best approach to consider it’s that he’s by no means spent the next share of his time within the batter’s field forward within the rely than he has this season. Like most hitters, he hits for lots extra energy when forward within the rely. When he places the ball in play whereas forward within the rely, he has a profession .816 slugging proportion. When he places the ball in play whereas behind, he slugs a mere .508.
What causes that hole? It’s the whole lot. Pitchers need to enterprise into the center of the plate extra continuously when the hitter is forward. Hitters can zone in on a specific pitch or space, taking in the event that they don’t get precisely what they’re on the lookout for. That’s a luxurious they don’t have when behind within the rely. Heck, hitters can simply swing tougher if they need, and lots of do. It’s not a lot that Raleigh has realized how one can hit when forward within the rely in 2025; he’s at all times identified how to do this. He’s simply getting forward extra continuously, which is giving him extra probabilities to indicate off the perfect a part of his sport.
Bear in mind how I mentioned that he’s swinging much less continuously at hittable pitches when forward within the rely? It’s true from a frequency standpoint, little doubt. However regardless of that, he’s taking extra hacks at hittable pitches per plate look than he ever has earlier than. That’s as a result of he’s getting to those advantageous spots extra typically. He’s seeing extra fastballs over the center of the plate, and swinging at extra fastballs over the center of the plate, too.
Does all of this imply that Raleigh goes to take care of his 170 wRC+? No approach. However I do assume it means he’s very probably to enhance on his numbers as in comparison with the previous, and he was already fairly good up to now. For hitters like Raleigh – highly effective however whiff-prone – there’s a transparent profit to swinging much less continuously. It forces pitchers to fulfill you within the strike zone extra continuously or danger shedding you to a stroll – and loads of pitchers aren’t prepared to take that danger. The fee isn’t large, as a result of despite the fact that Raleigh is surrendering some swings at hittable pitches, he’s producing extra pitches to hit by getting forward within the rely extra typically.
Regardless that nothing else about his sport has modified, a tough translation of his new strategy says that this ought to be price round 5-10 factors of wRC+. As Leo Morgenstern famous right now, Raleigh is DH’ing extra continuously this 12 months, and whereas he hasn’t hit nicely when DH’ing, the remainder absolutely additionally provides to his offensive prowess; it’s simpler to maintain your physique contemporary to hit once you aren’t at all times enjoying probably the most demanding defensive place on the sphere. Mix these two issues, and naturally Raleigh is hitting higher.
Can he hold this strategy up? I don’t see any purpose why not, a minimum of within the brief time period. Baseball is a sport of changes, and pitchers must strive one thing to disrupt Raleigh’s present type. Perhaps they’ll assault the zone early, hoping that his current adjustments result in extra takes and pitchers’ counts. Perhaps they’ll change to attacking with in-zone secondaries, simply to provide him a special look. He’s been feasting on the whole lot this 12 months, however notably on fastballs. Perhaps they’ll discover a gap in his swing and drive him to vary one thing else to regulate.
Predictions are laborious to make, particularly in regards to the future. However I can say this indubitably: Raleigh was swinging an excessive amount of earlier than. It wasn’t a lot a matter of unhealthy pitch recognition; he simply got here up there desirous to hit. Dialing that propensity again has made him extra harmful. He was already a profession 111 wRC+ hitter, and now I feel he’s higher than that. Mix that together with his elite protection, and we may be wanting on the new Finest Catcher in Baseball. Perhaps different energy hitters ought to observe the Huge Dumper’s lead and simply swing rather less.
