Final month, MLB Commerce Rumors revealed an early Energy Rankings looking forward to the upcoming free agent class. Kyle Tucker was an apparent selection for the highest spot and Dylan Stop ended up fairly comfortably in second. The subsequent few entrants had been harder to separate, however Bo Bichette ended up third.
Bichette’s free company was and is hard to peg. He has a robust observe report of success, however his 2024 season was terrible. His bat has been robust on the entire, although with a swing-happy profile that lacks walks. His protection has been satisfactory sufficient to stay at quick, however he’s not nice there.
Of the potential prime free brokers this coming winter, he seemingly has among the widest error bars. This publish will check out the spectrum, utilizing MLBTR’s Contract Tracker as a information.
As you may see in that screenshot (hyperlink for app customers), I’ve used the dropdown bars to seek for free agent offers for shortstops over the previous 5 years. I’ve then ranked them by the whole assure on the contract. There are some fairly clear tiers in incomes energy, so let’s see the place Bichette might slot in.
From 2019 by means of 2023, his manufacturing was fairly constant. He splashed onto the scene with a 143 wRC+ in 46 video games in his debut season however then his wRC+ completed within the 120 to 130 vary in every of the subsequent 4 seasons. His residence run whole within the three full seasons from 2021 to 2023 fell between 20 and 29. His stroll price was on the low facet in every of these campaigns, falling between 4.5% and 5.9%, however he additionally struck out lower than common and ran batting averages close to .300.
The defensive opinions have been blended. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -11 for his entire profession, although a giant chunk of that could be a -16 in 2022 alone, which seems like a transparent outlier. Other than that, he’s typically been close to common, give or take a couple of runs on both facet. Outs Above Common, nevertheless, doesn’t like his glovework in any respect. Bichette has -22 OAA for his profession and has been under common in nearly each season. The one campaigns wherein he’s completed with a optimistic OAA had been the shortened 2020 season and his injury-marred 2024 marketing campaign.
Nonetheless, the bat was sufficient to supply loads of worth. FanGraphs had him between 3.9 and 4.9 wins above substitute in every season from 2021 to 2023. Baseball Reference pegged him between 3.7 and 5.9.
Issues went off the rails final 12 months. Bichette seemingly battled leg accidents all 12 months, twice occurring the IL on account of proper calf strains. He bought into simply 81 video games, hit solely 4 residence runs and produced an unpleasant .225/.277/.322 batting line, 71 wRC+.
Turning to 2025, Bichette appears to have bounced again to his outdated self. By way of 211 plate appearances, he has a .292/.341/.431 and 121 wRC+. That’s regardless of a gradual begin. By way of the top of April, he nonetheless hadn’t hit a house run, resulting in a good however powerless .295/.328/.364 line and 97 wRC+. Because the calendar has flipped to Could, he has lastly gone over the fence 4 instances, serving to him hit .288/.365/.561 for a wRC+ of 163 this month.
Turning to the Contract Tracker checklist, on the prime is a stage that Bichette shouldn’t be capable to get to, with Corey Seager at $325MM adopted by Trea Turner at $300MM. Seager bought his deal going into his age-28 season, the identical age Bichette will likely be subsequent 12 months. Nonetheless, Seager was merely higher. His energy output was pretty near Bichette’s however with way more walks, resulting in a 142 wRC+. His protection was additionally graded greater.
Seager had 19.8 fWAR on the time he signed with the Rangers. Bichette might truly go previous that since he’s at 17.2 fWAR proper now, however that’s largely on account of Seager’s accidents (most notably, Tommy John surgical procedure). Seager produced that WAR whole in simply 514 common season video games as a Dodger, whereas Bichette already has 655 video games beneath his belt. There was some damage threat with Seager however he was much better on a price foundation and that’s what the Rangers paid for.
Turner was a bit older, going into his age-30 season, however his mixture of offense, protection and pace gave him an enormous ceiling Bichette can’t match. In his last two seasons earlier than free company, he produced 7.1 and 6.4 fWAR. As talked about, Bichette has topped out at 4.9.
The subsequent two names on the checklist are a bit uncommon. Xander Bogaerts getting $280MM registered as an enormous shock on the time and the deal hasn’t labored out for the Padres to date. Within the trade, that one is chalked as much as the Friars going a bit wild. Proprietor Peter Seidler was unwell and was permitting the entrance workplace to spend like by no means earlier than, seemingly throwing warning to the wind with the information that he didn’t have a lot time left.
Carlos Correa’s deal can be an uncommon information level. His incomes energy was initially far greater. He had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM take care of the Giants earlier than they bought scared by his bodily and walked away. The Mets agreed to a 12-year $315MM take care of Correa earlier than they, too, balked at his medicals. The $200MM take care of the Twins was due to this fact the product of a reasonably unprecedented scenario. The distinctive quartet of vesting choices within the deal mirror the odd circumstances and will add hundreds of thousands extra to Correa’s checking account.
There’s a case for Bichette to be within the subsequent tier. I’ll circle again to Marcus Semien in a second and focus first on Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. Every signed his contract going into his age-29 season and earned between $23.3MM and $26MM yearly. Adames and Swanson bought a seventh 12 months, pushing their whole ensures to $182MM and $177MM respectively. Báez and Story had been every capped at six years and $140MM whole.
Bichette will likely be one 12 months youthful than everybody in that group, theoretically giving him a bit extra incomes energy. The query will likely be whether or not he’s ranked as extremely aside from that. Adames is a greater defender, with 11 OAA and -3 DRS in his profession. That latter determine is a bit odd, as he was clearly in optimistic vary earlier than posting -16 DRS 2024 and -7 as far as a Large.
Offensively, he had usually been much like Bichette. He had a 126 wRC+ in 2020 and a 120 in 2021, with 25 residence runs within the latter season. His energy remained in 2022 and 2023 however low batting averages dropped his wRC+ to 109 and 94 in these seasons. He bounced again in 2024 with 32 residence runs and a 119 wRC+. His fWAR totals have typically been within the Bichette vary of three to 5 per season.
Swanson was all the time a glove-first shortstop with questions concerning the bat. By way of 2021, he nonetheless had a profession 88 wRC+. However in 2022, his stroll 12 months, he hit 25 residence runs and produced a 117 wRC+. Because of his wonderful protection and 18 stolen bases, he was capable of produce a 6.6 fWAR season. That was a tier above something Bichette has finished, however he had solely finished it as soon as. Nonetheless, it was sufficient for the Cubs to purchase in.
Báez and Story had been extra erratic. Báez was a subpar hitter in his first few seasons however offered sufficient on protection and the basepaths to be helpful. His offense improved as he neared free company however wasn’t constant. His wRC+ spiked to 131 in 2018 and dropped to 112 the 12 months after. The shortened 2020 season was a catastrophe, with a wRC+ of 57, earlier than he bounced again to 117 in 2021. At his heights, he was nearly a six-win participant, getting to five.8 and 5.6 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. These had been greater than any Bichette season, however he was additionally properly under at instances.
Considerably equally, Story hit a better peak than Bichette by producing 6.0 fWAR in 2019. He hit 35 residence runs, although enjoying in Denver in the course of the juiced ball season absolutely helped him a bit in that regard. Nonetheless, the 122 wRC+, 23 steals and powerful protection led to a six-win season. He additionally had 2.0 fWAR within the shortened 2020 marketing campaign with related manufacturing. However in his stroll 12 months, 2021, his wRC+ dropped to 98 and he solely produced 2.2 fWAR. That tepid platform season and a few considerations about his elbow well being knocked him down a bit.
Right here is the fWAR whole for every within the six seasons resulting in free company, together with the shortened 2020 season for all within the title of equity:
Baez: 21.9 in 782 video games
Story: 20.3 in 745 video games
Adames: 20.1 in 795 video games
Bichette: 15.8 in 609 video games
Swanson: 15.1 in 789 video games
Bichette is true within the thick there. As talked about, Swanson bloomed in his stroll 12 months, so it is smart he could be on the backside of this six-year checklist. If Bichette has a typical 12 months for him, he might add one other three or 4 wins and get pretty near the opposite shorstops on the checklist. Think about some inflation and that he’s a 12 months youthful than everybody in that pack and he has a case to earn one thing round $200MM.
What may even work in his favor is that he’ll be the clear prime shortstop this winter, as Adames was in the newest offseason. Alongside Bichette, the one different potential on a regular basis shortstop this winter could be Ha-Seong Kim. He’s nonetheless recovering from final 12 months’s shoulder surgical procedure and must each get well and play properly sufficient to decide out of the second season of his two-year take care of the Rays. Even in a best-case state of affairs the place that every one occurs, his incomes energy could be under a wholesome and productive Bichette.
That is all nonetheless considerably hypothetical. As talked about, Bichette appears to be getting again to his 2021-23 tempo this 12 months, however in a reasonably small pattern. There’s nonetheless plenty of time for the season to activate him. If he finally ends up having extra 2024-style struggles, he might definitely fall. Let’s flip to the Contract Tracker once more.
These are the highest offers for second basemen by common annual worth prior to now 5 years (hyperlink for app customers). This maybe paints an image of Bichette’s flooring. Given his questionable protection, it’s doable that golf equipment could view him as somebody who’s prone to transfer to second base pretty quickly. And the incomes energy of second basemen is clearly lesser than that of shortstops. Semien did get $175MM from the Rangers, although that’s an outlier. On the time, the Rangers had been 5 years right into a deep rebuild and had been keen to hurry up the method with aggressive spending.
Gleyber Torres is an fascinating comp for Bichette, as there are some parallels. Torres was as soon as a highly-touted shortstop prospect, however with a greater bat than glove. In contrast to Bichette, he couldn’t stick at quick. The Yankees moved him to second base for good in 2022, his age-25 season.
His offensive manufacturing has been considerably corresponding to Bichette’s on the entire. He went into free company with a .265/.334/.441 line and 113 wRC+, a bit under Bichette’s typical vary. He additionally had a tepid platform 12 months, slashing .257/.330/.378 for a 104 wRC+ in 2024. He settled for a one-year, $15MM “show it” take care of the Tigers.
It at present appears unlikely that Bichette would fall fairly that far. His profession wRC+ of 120 is a couple of ticks above what Torres delivered to the open market final fall. Bichette additionally has a leg up defensively, as he will likely be going into free company as a viable shortstop, a minimum of for the quick time period.
However a delicate end in 2025 might hamper Bichette. In that state of affairs, he’d be going into free company on the heels of two pretty disappointing seasons in a row. That was the scenario Cody Bellinger was in going into 2023. After two injury-marred seasons with the Dodgers, he was non-tendered and settled for a one-year, $17.5MM pact with the Cubs for his age-27 season. He bounced again that 12 months and went into the open market forward of his age-28 marketing campaign.
However there have been sufficient query marks from his inconsistency, well being and protection that he settled for a three-year, $80MM deal to return to the Cubs, properly under preliminary expectations. He earned opt-out possibilities after every season in that deal however declined the primary probability after a good-not-great 2024 season.
Time will inform the place Bichette finally places himself on this incomes spectrum, however it seems to be fairly broad. Something from $20MM to $200MM appears considerably believable, relying on his efficiency over the four-plus months, which can make him an interesting participant to trace.
A qualifying provide could be one thing of a footnote when speaking a few $200MM deal however would definitely change into noteworthy if Bichette finds himself on the opposite finish. The QO was $21.05MM in the newest offseason and can absolutely go up for the approaching winter, after quite a lot of latest mega offers. The QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid gamers. Every of Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Corbin Burnes earned AAVs of $35MM or greater not too long ago. Although there are some deferrals in these offers, the QO worth is bound to rise.
Bichette would solely be eligible to obtain a QO if he sticks with the Jays till the top of the season. Gamers traded midseason should not eligible to obtain one. If the Jays fall out of the race and commerce Bichette on the deadline, the QO gained’t be an element for him — yet one more element that would sway a unstable free agent case with many elements at play.
Picture of Bichette courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Pictures
