Warsaw, Poland – The streets of Warsaw have been awash with red-and-white flags final Sunday as two presidential hopefuls and their supporters marched by way of the capital for one final time earlier than Poland takes to polls on Sunday, June 1, within the second spherical of voting for the nation’s subsequent president.
Rafał Trzaskowski from the centre-right Civic Platform of the governing Civic Coalition and Karol Nawrocki, an unbiased candidate supported by the right-wing Legislation and Justice (PiS) social gathering, which ran Poland between 2015 and 2023, are the 2 remaining contenders within the election. Within the first spherical of polls on Might 18, Trzaskowski gained 31.1 % of the votes whereas Nawrocki got here second with 29.5 %.
To date, polling teams say the vote is break up pretty evenly between the 2 for the ultimate spherical. A ballot by IBRiS for Polish information outlet Onet, has discovered that 47.7 % of respondents intend to vote for Trzaskowski, with 46 % indicating they’ll vote for Nawrocki. The remainder are uncertain.
One of many two will succeed Andrzej Duda, the outgoing nationalist conservative president who was additionally backed by PiS and has been blamed for holding up justice reforms by utilizing his veto towards the federal government.
It is a hotly contested race. Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have clashed over the European Union, nationwide safety and social values. On the identical time, each candidates take a equally hardline method to immigration, and have used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, constructing on rising resentment amongst Poles who see themselves as competing for strained social companies with 1.55 million Ukrainian migrants and struggle refugees.
Whereas Trzaskowski has proposed that solely working Ukrainians ought to have entry to the nation’s baby profit, Nawrocki has gone additional, saying he would even be towards Ukraine becoming a member of NATO and even the EU.
Presidential candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, and his spouse, Malgorzata, wave to 1000’s of supporters in the course of the Nice Patriotic March per week earlier than the second spherical of the presidential elections, on Might 25, 2025, in Warsaw, Poland (Omar Marques/Getty Photographs)
‘Each vote is required’
Talking at his “Patriots’ March”, which gathered about 140,000 supporters final weekend, Trzaskowski took goal at his opponent whereas calling for unity.
“It’s excessive time for honesty to win. It’s excessive time for integrity to win. It’s excessive time for justice to win. It’s excessive time for reality to win. That’s what these elections are about,” he declared to a cheering crowd.
“Full willpower is required. Each vote is required. In order that the long run wins. So that each one of Poland wins.”
Trzaskowski has served as Warsaw’s mayor since 2018. His feedback about “honesty” are seen as a reference to a latest information story about Nawrocki’s alleged buy of a flat in Gdansk belonging to an aged man in alternate for a promise to supply him with care. In accordance with the person’s household, the promise was not fulfilled, and he was positioned in a state nursing dwelling.
In response, Nawrocki has stated he’ll donate the flat to charity and identified that beneath Trzaskowski’s mayorship, households had been evicted from state lodging in Warsaw.
Trzaskowski is seen as a extra liberal candidate than his opponent and has, in contrast to Nawrocki, supported requires LGBTQ rights, in addition to the liberalisation of the nation’s strict abortion regulation previously. He has remained largely silent about these points in the course of the present marketing campaign, nevertheless. If elected, he could be extra seemingly to assist the governing coalition move varied payments, primarily reforms to the rule of regulation and the justice system, which have to this point been blocked by Duda.
“Rafał Trzaskowski could be a pro-European politician,” stated Bartosz Rydlinski, political scientist from Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski College in Warsaw. “Brussels, Paris and Berlin could be the primary capitals he would go to. He would attempt to keep shut relations with the US, however concentrate on strengthening the European part, each within the European Union and in NATO.”
Karol Nawrocki, the presidential candidate supported by PiS, arrives for the ‘March for Poland’ the weekend earlier than the second spherical of the presidential elections, on Might 25, 2025, in Warsaw, Poland (Omar Marques/Getty Photographs)
US endorsement for Nawrocki
Nawrocki’s weekend “March for Poland” by way of central Warsaw gathered near 50,000 supporters, and emphasised his nationalist conservative, pro-Catholic and free-market views. He argues that Poland must be prioritising its relationship with the US over the EU.
However his actual triumph got here this week when he acquired an official endorsement from Kristi Noem, President Donald Trump’s secretary of homeland safety.
Nawrocki laid out his plan for Poland’s future on Tuesday on the Conservative Political Motion Convention, an annual occasion hosted by the American Conservative Union (US) for US conservative activists and officers. The occasion is normally held within the US, however happened in Hungary in 2022. This yr, it was held within the Polish city of Jasionka, southeastern Poland, near the air and cargo hub which provides weapons and support to Ukraine.
“For us, for Poles, relations with america are based mostly on a deep basis of values. These values are freedom, democracy, and sovereignty,” he informed the viewers, which included US Secretary of Homeland Safety Noem, Vice President JD Vance, the billionaire Tesla proprietor Elon Musk and Steve Bannon, the previous White Home political strategist in 2017 throughout Trump’s first time period as president.
“My opponent, Rafał Trzaskowski, is enjoying dishonestly,” stated Nawrocki, who claims Trzaskowski would observe EU orders blindly, together with on stress-free immigration guidelines. “Not solely does he lie throughout public debates and get caught in these lies, however he additionally doesn’t wish to say what his actual thought for Poland after June 1st, 2025, is. And this concept is apparent. Velocity up the migration pact, velocity up the local weather pact and pursue a coverage that’s essential for Brussels, not for our safety.”
US Homeland Safety Secretary Kristi Noem delivers a speech on the Conservative Political Motion Convention, CPAC, on Might 27, 2025, in Rzeszow, Poland. She endorsed Nawrocki for president of Poland (Alex Brandon-Pool/Getty Photographs)
The occasion was a much-needed enhance for Nawrocki after a protracted week of dangerous information.
First, on Might 22, Slawomir Mentzen, the far-right head of free-market social gathering Konfederacja, who got here third within the first spherical of the presidential election, claimed on his YouTube channel interview with Nawrocki that the PiS candidate had taken half in a combat between soccer hooligans in 2014 – one thing Nawrocki has by no means denied.
Then, in a TV debate the next day, he was seen putting a small sachet on his gum, regarded as stuffed with tobacco, however which prompted hypothesis that he might need been taking medication. Nawrocki responded by offering a destructive drug take a look at consequence on Tuesday.
Lastly, a information story was printed by Onet, citing nameless sources, claiming that as a younger man, Nawrocki had participated in supplying prostitutes to company of the Grand Resort within the seaside metropolis of Sopot, the place he labored as a safety guard in 2007. Nawrocki denied the claims and, in a submit on X, acknowledged that he would sue the outlet.
However the destructive information doesn’t appear to have affected his assist.
“Relating to the hooligan combat, he was 28 on the time, and I don’t have an issue with that as a result of I feel that males ought to know the way to combat. Relating to different points – everybody could make a mistake, and it doesn’t must imply dangerous intentions,” stated Marcin Mamon, a right-wing freelance journalist who claimed the alleged scandals involving Nawrocki have been exaggerated.
“For me, voting for a conservative or right-wing candidate is a declaration of values, such because the Catholic religion. Voting for the opposite candidate means voting towards the Church and for abortion, which I’m completely towards.”
Parliamentary impasse
Having a like-minded president could be essential for the governing Civic Platform to reverse controversial judicial reforms launched by the previous PiS authorities, particularly concerning the independence of the judiciary.
On account of the adjustments, which have been deemed to contradict European regulation, in 2021, the European Union imposed penalties on Poland. Whereas Civic Platform got here to energy in 2023 with the promise of reversing the controversial legal guidelines, it has been unable to take action as President Duda holds a proper to veto and would block any makes an attempt at altering the regulation.
“Nawrocki’s victory would imply a complete struggle with the federal government,” stated Rydlinski. “He could be a way more conservative president than Andrzej Duda, and he would most likely refer many payments to the Constitutional Tribunal, which continues to be beneath the management of judges elected by the Legislation and Justice authorities.”
In accordance with consultants, a victory for Nawrocki would additionally put Poland on a battle course with Europe.
“Karol Nawrocki would very strongly go for bilateral relations between Warsaw and Washington, breaking apart the EU’s unity,” Rydlinski stated. “He could be a mini-Trump in Central Europe, which might imply a significant battle with Germany, cooling relations with France, and definitely a battle with Brussels.”
Nawrocki’s conservatism and fascination with Trump have sparked concern amongst some Polish voters. Those that voted for left-wing or centrist candidates within the first spherical are more likely to unite now, not of their assist for Trzaskowski, however towards what they see as Nawrocki’s Trump-like imaginative and prescient for Poland.
The left-wing and centrist candidates who misplaced within the first spherical have declared their assist for Trzaskowski, and their supporters are anticipated to observe swimsuit.
“Placing a cross subsequent to Trzaskowski won’t come simple for me,” stated Zofia Szeremet, a 20-year-old pupil based mostly in Warsaw who voted for the left-wing chief of the Razem social gathering, Adrian Zandberg, within the first spherical. “However I can’t think about not voting in such an essential election. I don’t agree with Trzaskowski on many points, however on the finish of the day, he’s a assure for Poland’s pro-European course.
“Nawrocki is anti-EU, anti-Ukrainian, inexperienced and incompetent, and I don’t think about a president having ties with hooligan actions.”
An in depth name
Polls are inconclusive on the subject of the election favorite. What the primary spherical of the vote has revealed, nevertheless, is that voters are uninterested in the continual primacy of the 2 greatest events.
“If we add up the outcomes of Nawrocki and Trzaskowski, it’s barely above 60 %, the worst consequence since 2005. It’s clear that Poles are searching for another, and never solely on the precise, but in addition to the left,” stated Marcin Palade, political sociologist and knowledgeable on electoral geography in Poland. This compares with the almost 74 % gained by the highest two candidates within the 2020 presidential election – Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski.
“Rafał Trzaskowski completed the primary spherical (this yr) under even what the polls predicted could be the minimal he might win, which is the worst attainable situation,” Palade stated. “Nawrocki had the worst consequence a PiS candidate has had since 2005, under the scores of the social gathering that has stood behind him.”
Moreover, there could also be extra voters within the second spherical: Voter turnout for the primary spherical was 67.3 %. Palade added: “The second spherical will likely be determined by younger folks, but in addition by those that didn’t vote within the first spherical. It’s an open query whom they’ll assist.”
