Issues aren’t going nicely for the Orioles, to state the plain. They at present have a report of 26-38. They’re 8.5 video games again of the ultimate American League Wild Card spot. They’re behind each A.L. staff aside from the White Sox and Athletics. FanGraphs places Baltimore’s playoff odds at 3.1%. Baseball Prospectus is barely extra optimistic at 9.7%.
Barring a surge within the subsequent few weeks, they’ll go into the commerce deadline as sellers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic studies that the membership is viewing issues that method, unsurprisingly. That’s a disappointing final result nevertheless it additionally presents alternatives.
Groups on the fringes of rivalry usually need to reply robust questions on how aggressively to assault the deadline. Diving in headfirst as a purchaser has short-term attraction however runs the danger of investing in a flawed staff whereas hampering the membership sooner or later. Making an attempt to stroll a superb line between shopping for and promoting can generally find yourself as a half measure that doesn’t totally work in both course.
The O’s ought to have a extra easy strategy. Whereas they are going to be sellers, there’s nonetheless plenty of younger expertise within the system and on the massive league roster. The overall technique must be to maneuver guys with dwindling management whereas preserving the long-term items with a watch in the direction of contending once more in 2026. Ramón Urías and/or Ryan O’Hearn may very well be traded, making extra room for Coby Mayo on the infield corners. Cedric Mullins must be flipped, opening enjoying time for the membership’s many younger outfielders equivalent to Jud Fabian or Enrique Bradfield.
One other fascinating identify who must be within the combine is Samuel Basallo. A world signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2021, he acquired a wholesome $1.3MM bonus. Since then, he has continued to climb prospect rankings along with his wonderful work within the minors. In 364 video games on the farm so far, Basallo has a mixed .282/.364/.489 batting line and 134 wRC+. That features a .252/.365/.595 line and 148 wRC+ at Triple-A this 12 months. He has 13 dwelling runs in simply 39 video games. His 25% strikeout price is a bit excessive, however his 14.7% stroll price is sort of double the league common.
There have been some query marks about his protection through the years, however prospect evaluators really feel he has improved as he has aged. He’s nonetheless solely 20 years previous and received’t flip 21 till August. Baseball America at present lists him because the #17 prospect in baseball. MLB Pipeline has him at #16. Keith Legislation of The Athletic simply did a midseason replace and had Basallo at #4. Coming into the 12 months, ESPN had him at #17 and FanGraphs at #5.
The Orioles have probably the most proficient catchers in baseball in Adley Rutschman, although he’s has been in a droop for nearly a 12 months now. The primary general choose of the 2019 draft, Rutschman was doing all the things in accordance with plan in his first few years within the huge leagues.
From 2022-23, Rutschman hit 33 dwelling runs, drew walks at a 13.6% clip and solely struck out 16.2% of the time. His .268/.369/.439 line result in a 130 wRC+, indicating he was 30% higher than league common on the plate. The protection additionally acquired robust opinions. FanGraphs credited him with 11.3 wins above alternative over these two seasons, tops amongst all huge league catchers in that point. That quantity doesn’t even account for intangibles, with Rutschman usually complimented for his clubhouse management and work with a pitching employees.
For the primary half of 2024, Rutschman continued on that tempo. By means of June twenty sixth, he had a .297/.350/.470 line and 135 wRC+. On June twenty seventh, he was hit on his proper hand by a foul tip and had that hand wrapped up after the sport, per Roch Kubatko of Masnsports.com (video clip of the play from MLB.com, although the announcer by accident refers to Rutschman as James McCann). Possibly the timing is a coincidence, however Rutschman hasn’t been the identical since. He sat out the membership’s recreation on June twenty eighth however was again in there on the twenty ninth. He slashed .189/.279/.280 for a 63 wRC+ in the remainder of the season.
Right here in 2025, the two-time All-Star been higher however not again to his earlier self. Rutschman has a .227/.321/.374 line and 103 wRC+ this 12 months. A few of that could be luck. He has a .250 batting common on balls in play this season, which is nicely beneath his earlier stage and this 12 months’s .290 league common. His 90.8 miles per hour common exit velocity is definitely a profession excessive. His 9.4% barrel price and 40.9% hard-hit price are additionally private bests.
His batted ball metrics have been down within the second half of 2024. Maybe essentially the most logical clarification is that Rutschman wasn’t 100% wholesome after taking that foul tip final 12 months, whereas he’s been largely wholesome however unfortunate up to now in 2025. He’s had a number of knocks this 12 months however has prevented the injured checklist. Possibly his outcomes will even out in the long term and this dip will finally appear to be a footnote. For what it’s price, I personally suppose that’s one of the best and more than likely clarification.
Even when Rutschman’s droop was only a blip and he’s again to his previous self, the Orioles will nonetheless doubtless need to make some selections about their plans behind the plate. Rutschman is now simply over two years away from free company, as he’s slated to hit the open market after the 2027 season. Regardless of a late-Could name up in 2022, he earned a full 12 months of service by ending second in Rookie of the 12 months voting. There hasn’t been any indication that an extension is very doubtless. With 2025 trending towards being a misplaced trigger, the O’s might solely have two extra actual bites of the apple with Rutschman.
There’s additionally Basallo’s well being to contemplate. Although he continues mashing the ball, he has handled some accidents, together with a hamstring problem and a few elbow irritation. These points, notably the latter, have reduce into his capability to get work behind the plate. So as to get him common plate appearances, the O’s have put him at first base and within the designated hitter slot with some frequency. This 12 months, he has 17 begins as a DH, 9 at first and 11 behind the plate. He solely has 90 innings within the catcher place this 12 months. Final 12 months, he had 35 begins because the DH, 32 at first base and 56 because the catcher.
Which means it’s not a strict both/or state of affairs. It’s completely potential to think about a state of affairs whereby Rutschman and Basallo share the catching duties and the DH slot whereas Basallo additionally will get a while at first base. Gary Sánchez was the deliberate backup to Rutschman this 12 months, however he’s largely been harm and is an impending free agent regardless. O’Hearn is an impending free agent as nicely. Ryan Mountcastle may be managed via 2026 however seems like a non-tender candidate since he was having a poor 12 months and is now going to be on the IL for months. Mayo might take over at first subsequent 12 months with Jordan Westburg at third base. Urias would possibly nonetheless be on the roster subsequent 12 months, however the doubtless departures of O’Hearn and Mountcastle will release some plate appearances.
Basallo’s bat will seemingly be adequate to play wherever, however his offensive contributions might be extra invaluable if he generally is a common catcher. The Orioles would possibly favor to make use of the primary base and DH spots for Mayo and their many younger outfielders. If the O’s wished to open the catcher place for Basallo, there is likely to be some temptation to contemplate buying and selling Rutschman.
Doing so this summer season isn’t doubtless. Buying and selling catchers midseason may be tough as a result of the backstop must be taught a completely new pitching employees on the fly. There’s additionally the truth that Rutschman’s worth is probably going down, on account of final 12 months’s struggles and this 12 months’s sluggish begin. As referenced earlier, higher days could also be forward, so ready could be the good play. With Basallo nonetheless a piece in progress, there shouldn’t be short-term urgency to get a deal achieved.
However over the following few years, it’s potential that the stress builds. Basallo coming as much as the majors this 12 months is completely viable, particularly if the O’s unload some items on the deadline and open up enjoying time. If he can hit huge league pitching and continues maturing defensively, his viability as a serious league catcher will develop. All of the whereas, Rutschman’s window of management might be narrowing. As talked about, he’s now about two and a half seasons from the open market. He’s making $5.5MM this 12 months and might be due two extra raises in arbitration.
Because the window of management shrinks and his wage grows, his commerce worth will drop. That’s a difficult steadiness the O’s should take into account. They’ve lengthy had a giant assortment of place participant expertise however have struggled to have sufficient beginning pitching. They’ve elevated spending a bit prior to now 12 months however nonetheless haven’t made large investments within the rotation, which has contributed to their unraveling this 12 months.
Buying and selling Rutschman and handing the catching duties to Basallo would definitely be an enormous threat proper now. However over time, maybe it begins to look much less dangerous, relying on how Basallo dives into the key league waters.
For different golf equipment, Rutschman would definitely maintain attraction. Free company normally isn’t an awesome place to seek out catching options. Backstops have a tendency to point out their age a bit extra rapidly than different gamers, as a result of calls for of the place. By the point gamers get to free company, they’re normally round 30 years previous. Rutschman is now 27 and might be 28 and 29 in his ultimate two arbitration seasons.
It’s virtually a on condition that there can be groups keen to give up controllable beginning pitching to accumulate Rutschman down the highway. If that’s the case, the O’s should take into consideration the proper time to make that strike. Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton are all slated totally free company this winter, so the rotation must be the membership’s main goal once more within the coming offseason, even with Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish getting back from accidents.
There aren’t any straightforward solutions right here and there are nonetheless many alternative methods it might go. However each time Basallo does come up, he’ll begin to get examined and the O’s will steadily get extra readability on who he may be. As that’s taking place, the window might be slowly shutting on the Rutschman period, barring a shock extension. As these strings unravel concurrently, selections should be made.
Photograph courtesy of Joe Camporeale, Kim Klement Neitzel, and D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Photographs
