Denis Poroy-Imagn Photographs
Although the Padres have largely been treading water for the previous six weeks whereas utilizing a reasonably makeshift rotation — a scenario not not like that of the Dodgers, albeit with fewer ex-Rays (and doubtless X-rays) — that description doesn’t lengthen to Manny Machado. The 32-year-old third baseman, who went 3-for-5 whereas driving in 5 runs throughout an 11-1 romp over the Dodgers on Tuesday, has been red-hot recently. Certainly, he’s placing collectively top-of-the-line seasons of his 14-year profession whereas doing his finest to maintain the NL West race a decent one.
Admittedly, Machado didn’t face the Dodgers’ finest pitching on Tuesday. The Padres’ NL West rivals are with out starters Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, and Tony Gonsolin, the final of whom landed on the injured listing earlier this week resulting from discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow. On Tuesday, they used an opener, Lou Trivino, who retired Machado on a routine grounder within the first inning. In Machado’s subsequent three journeys to the plate, he confronted bulk man Matt Sauer, towards whom he related for RBI singles within the third (88 mph) and fifth (77.8 mph). Sauer, a thrice-optioned righty who was compelled to Put on One on behalf of a gassed employees — he gave up 13 hits and 9 runs in 4 2/3 innings — lastly retired Machado on a grounder within the sixth, however even that drove in a run to provide the Padres a 7-0 lead.
Machado wasn’t performed. With the Dodgers resorting to utilizing utilityman Enrique Hernández within the blowout — he threw 2 1/3 innings, the third-longest position-player pitching stint of the Wild Card period — Machado pounced on a 47.8-mph eephus pitch within the seventh inning, hammering it at 105.8 mph to left area for a two-run single to cap the Padres’ scoring:
Once more, Machado wasn’t precisely going through any Cy Younger hopefuls, however no matter who has been on mound recently, he’s had little hassle. After hitting a decent .279/.336/.423 (115 wRC+) in March and April, he’s batting a scorching .352/.415/.577 (182 wRC+) since Might 1, placing him in a digital tie with reigning NL MVP Shohei Ohtani for the fifth-highest mark within the majors:
Sadly for the Padres, Machado’s sizzling streak has been offset by the struggles of Luis Arraez (.265/.300/.371, 90 wRC+), Xander Bogaerts (.238/.317/.302, 80 wRC+), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (.188/.287/.333, 79 wRC+) — to not point out a complete lot of part-time gamers — over that very same stretch. The staff has one way or the other squeezed 4.35 runs per recreation out of a .238/.305/.364 (92 wRC+) slash line in that span, with a pitching employees that’s been lacking Michael King for the previous three weeks in addition to Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove for the entire season; recently, Randy Vásquez, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert have rounded out the unit behind Dylan Stop and Nick Pivetta. Thus the Padres have gone 19-18 since Might 1 after a 19-11 begin, mainly approximating a 20-18 stretch by the pitching-poor Dodgers. After shedding two out of three to Los Angeles within the rivals’ first assembly since final fall’s five-game Division Collection — the 11-1 rout was their solely win — San Diego is 2 video games again within the NL West race, 1 1/2 video games behind a banged-up San Francisco staff that has issues of its personal.
General, Machado is hitting .320/.381/.510 with 10 homers, eight steals, and a 153 wRC+. If the season ended at the moment, all of these fee stats besides the slugging proportion would symbolize profession highs, with the batting common maybe probably the most shocking. He entered Wednesday hitting .325, second within the NL behind Freddie Freeman (.349) however slipped into third place behind Will Smith, whose 2-for-4 day pushed him to .324. Whereas Machado owns a .281 profession batting common, the one season wherein he’s completed at .300 or higher was the pandemic-shortened 2020 marketing campaign. His full-season excessive is .298, set in 2022.
That season, you could recall, was an important one for Machado, who completed because the runner-up within the NL MVP race whereas batting .298/.366/.531 (152 wRC+) with 32 homers, 7.1 fWAR (0.1 off his profession excessive) and 6.8 bWAR. Machado used that stellar displaying as leverage to choose out and improve his 10-year, $300-million contract by 2028 to an 11-year, $350 million one by 2033. He isn’t going to take advantage of extra thousands and thousands out of the Padres with this one, however his 2.7 fWAR places him in what’s mainly a five-way tie for sixth within the NL:
NL WAR Leaders
Participant
Group
PA
HR
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
WAR
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC
285
17
.271
.305
.545
136
3.6
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
313
23
.290
.383
.625
174
3.3
Corbin Carroll
ARI
301
19
.260
.339
.576
150
3.3
Francisco Lindor
NYM
302
14
.282
.351
.485
135
2.9
Kyle Tucker
CHC
302
13
.274
.387
.508
150
2.8
Pete Alonso
NYM
301
17
.302
.399
.592
177
2.7
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDP
284
13
.259
.342
.454
126
2.7
Trea Turner
PHI
297
7
.303
.360
.446
127
2.7
Manny Machado
SDP
281
10
.320
.381
.510
153
2.7
Freddie Freeman
LAD
247
9
.347
.417
.579
175
2.7
Machado’s efficiency to this point represents a robust rebound from his 2023 and ’24 seasons, each of which had been strong (113 wRC+ and three.4 WAR within the former, 122 wRC+ and three.5 WAR within the latter) however fell wanting the ZiPS projections Dan Szymborski ran when the slugger re-signed with the Padres. “Let’s simply say that ZiPS isn’t overly enthusiastic concerning the contract, valuing Machado’s future companies at $181 million over 11 years,” wrote Szymborski. I’m not right here to relitigate that deal — I used to be skeptical he may enhance upon his earlier one and much more skeptical that it made sense for the Padres — however I’m having fun with watching this bounce again. Machado is a polarizing participant who’s performed a lot to forged himself because the heel all through his profession; many have known as him soiled, although for what it’s price, Dustin Pedroia exonerated him for the takeout slide that turned the Pink Sox second baseman’s profession. I’ve at all times loved Machado’s distinctive mixture of contact, energy, and protection, and the best way he’s helped elevate the Padres-Dodgers rivalry into one of many recreation’s finest.
What we’re seeing now from Machado is the results of his being again to full energy after years of elbow troubles. “It feels good to simply be considerably regular and be capable to get some good swings out and not likely be on the coaching room desk each single day,” he advised The Athletic‘s Dennis Lin not too long ago. Recall that on the finish of the 2023 season — a disappointing one for the Padres, who missed the playoffs in Juan Soto’s solely full season with the membership — Machado underwent surgical procedure to restore the extensor tendon in his proper elbow after battling tennis elbow for many of that nice 2022 and the lesser ’23. Restricted to DH obligation over the ultimate month of the latter marketing campaign, he nonetheless completed robust, however he struggled on the outset of final yr whereas once more DHing. He didn’t play third base till April 26, the staff’s twenty ninth recreation, and hit simply .241/.293/.361 (86 wRC+) by the tip of Might. He’s up there with the large boys over the previous one year:
Highest wRC+ Over Previous Calendar 12 months
Participant
Group
PA
HR
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
Aaron Choose
NYY
703
59
.360
.481
.735
233
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
753
62
.301
.392
.668
186
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR
703
31
.319
.397
.546
164
Juan Soto
2 Tms
721
37
.260
.404
.514
161
Brent Rooker
OAK
694
41
.293
.359
.543
155
Bobby Witt Jr.
KCR
707
29
.319
.379
.558
155
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
701
48
.252
.374
.549
153
Francisco Lindor
NYM
703
37
.293
.364
.532
151
Cal Raleigh
SEA
679
48
.244
.346
.529
150
Freddie Freeman
LAD
590
23
.306
.385
.517
150
Jackson Merrill
SDP
535
26
.301
.336
.552
146
José Ramírez
CLE
681
33
.301
.357
.534
146
Manny Machado
SDP
669
33
.302
.353
.525
145
Pete Alonso
NYM
719
37
.266
.362
.507
145
Seiya Suzuki
CHC
694
30
.279
.357
.510
142
That gained’t win a batting title, however it’s simply one other method of confirming that what we’re seeing isn’t some fluke. Machado is again close to his peak type, no less than on the offensive facet, hitting the ball as exhausting as he has at any time previously half-decade:
Manny Machado Statcast Profile
Season
BBE
EV
maxEV
LA
Brl%
HH%
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
2021
473
93.1
119.6
14.0
13.3%
52.0%
.278
.291
.489
.526
.350
.376
2022
447
91.5
112.4
16.0
9.8%
49.0%
.298
.264
.531
.447
.382
.338
2023
440
91.0
114.5
15.0
10.5%
45.9%
.258
.254
.462
.458
.334
.332
2024
473
92.5
115.6
12.7
11.0%
48.8%
.275
.272
.472
.461
.340
.338
2025
210
92.9
114.8
13.7
12.9%
52.4%
.320
.320
.510
.561
.386
.404
Machado has shed some top-end energy, as evidenced by the lowering most exit velocities, however his hard-hit fee, xSLG, and xwOBA are at Statcast-era highs, and each his barrel fee and common exit velocity are almost there as nicely. His xwOBA is as excessive as it’s because of the mixture of that onerous hitting, a lower-than-usual strikeout fee (16%), and a higher-than-usual stroll fee (9.3%). His anticipated stats, common exit velocity, and hard-hit fee are all within the 92nd percentile or greater.
Past that, two issues stand out to those eyes: the frequency with which he’s squaring the ball up and the extent to which he’s spraying hits all over the place. We’ve acquired lower than two full years of bat-tracking knowledge unfold out over components of three seasons, and Machado’s present common bat velocity of 74.8 mph isn’t fairly as quick as final yr (75.2) or the second half of 2023 (76.7, whew), however it’s nonetheless ok for the 87th percentile. What’s spectacular is that his squared-up fee has improved from the fortieth to the 52nd to the 72nd percentile in that span.
All of that is occurring whereas Machado is pulling the ball much less ceaselessly than at any level previously half-decade, on simply 34.8% of all batted balls. His pulled air fee of 15.2% is an eyelash above final yr however over six factors down from his profession excessive (21.5%) in 2022; on his Statcast web page, the cell has turned from darkish pink to pale blue. His reverse area manufacturing, then again, is nearly as good because it’s been since earlier than the pandemic:
Manny Machado to the Reverse Area
Season
PA
H
HR
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
EV
Brl%
HH%
2019
127
47
10
.376
.304
.688
.589
.430
.364
90.2
9.4%
40.2%
2016
126
45
7
.366
.335
.634
.586
.411
.387
86.5
5.6%
35.7%
2025
56
19
2
.345
.295
.545
.521
.378
.341
92.2
8.9%
46.4%
2015
124
36
7
.290
.240
.540
.397
.353
.273
87.3
4.0%
25.8%
2020
48
16
1
.333
.304
.500
.514
.353
.348
84.1
8.3%
33.3%
2024
106
36
1
.340
.290
.462
.432
.346
.310
88.9
3.8%
35.8%
2021
103
31
4
.304
.241
.520
.472
.344
.299
88.5
10.7%
35.9%
2023
111
31
6
.282
.243
.491
.448
.323
.292
86.6
8.1%
35.1%
2017
124
37
3
.306
.273
.479
.508
.322
.327
87.5
7.3%
33.1%
2018
134
37
4
.278
.252
.451
.428
.307
.289
87.4
6.0%
33.6%
2022
117
31
0
.267
.255
.362
.392
.269
.280
84.7
3.4%
29.1%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Except for his common exit velo (seventh) and hard-hit fee (thirteenth), none of Machado’s 2025 oppo stats are that near main league leads, however these two classes are profession bests, and as you’ll be able to see, they’re contributing to his spectacular total numbers. His xSLG going oppo is greater than most of his profession xSLGs total. As hitting coach Victor Rodriguez advised Lin, “He is aware of when he’s good is when he’s a gap-to-gap, line-drive man.”
As for his protection, Machado stays visually spectacular along with his dives, slides, and lengthy throws whereas crossing over into foul territory, however the metrics do recommend he’s in decline. His -3 FRV is his lowest mark since 2019, 12 runs under his complete simply two years in the past. Nonetheless, notably to this aficionado of third base defensive highlights, he’s entertaining as hell:
Machado hit his 350th profession house run on June 5, as a part of a seven-homers-in-16-games tear. He’s now simply 19 hits away from 2,000, and three,000 isn’t out of the query. In keeping with Szymborski, he’s acquired a 31% probability of reaching the latter milestone, which is decrease than that of Freeman (61% as of some weeks in the past) or Jose Altuve (41%). However as a result of he’s about two years youthful than the latter, he’s acquired a greater probability of reaching 3,200 hits (16% vs. 11%), a mark that solely 15 of the earlier 33 3,000-hit membership members have reached. Freeman, by comparability, has odds of round 50% for that greater mark. Even when Machado falls wanting 3,000 hits, he’s already at 60.4 profession bWAR, 42.6 peak bWAR, and 51.5 JAWS, the final of which is sweet for 18th amongst third basemen. He’s at 2.8 bWAR this yr, and something above 4.1 will push that peak rating greater. Plugging in his rest-of-season ZiPS (2.6), for instance, would take him to 63.0/43.9/53.5, previous upcoming Corridor of Fame inductee Dick Allen, in addition to Sal Bando and Buddy Bell, into fifteenth in JAWS.
It’s all spectacular stuff. Within the wake of his previous two seasons, it’s not exhausting to think about Machado persevering with his downward development, nonetheless score as an above-average common however shedding a little bit of worth every year. That will but be his destiny, however proper now, watching star-level Manny is numerous enjoyable.
