By this time of 12 months in every of the earlier two seasons, the gamers who would go on to guide their respective leagues in stolen bases have been already atop the leaderboards. As of June 12, 2024, Elly De La Cruz led Brice Turang for the NL lead by 10 steals, whereas José Caballero led Bobby Witt Jr. for the AL lead by three. De La Cruz would end the 12 months with an MLB-leading 67 swipes, whereas Caballero would end atop the Junior Circuit with 44. The 12 months earlier than, Esteury Ruiz held a cushty lead within the AL with 31 steals on June 12, and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 28 put him nicely forward of the NL competitors. Acuña would go on to guide the majors with 73 stolen bases, whereas Ruiz would lead the AL with 67 of his personal.
That being stated, there’s loads of season left to play and loads of stolen base pleasure but available. By this present day final 12 months, Shohei Ohtani had solely stolen 15 bases, placing him on tempo for 35 by the top of the 12 months. He famously completed with 59, en path to the primary 50-50 season in MLB historical past. In distinction, Witt was on tempo for 44 steals at the moment final season. If he’d stored that up, he would have tied for the league lead. As an alternative, he solely swiped 12 extra luggage over the remainder of the season, ending with a mere 31. With all that to contemplate, let’s take inventory of the stolen base leaderboards and take a look at to determine who would possibly sit on the high by the top of the 12 months.
Trying to defend his AL stolen base crown, Caballero at present leads the majors with 25 steals. He’s one forward of Oneil Cruz for the MLB lead and 4 forward of Witt and Luis Robert Jr. within the AL. So, is the Rays utilityman the clear frontrunner (no pun supposed) to guide the AL as soon as once more? He’s been operating extra typically this season than final, and he’s been protected at the next fee. As issues stand at this time, he’s the one participant within the majors on tempo to achieve 60 steals. No different AL runner is on tempo for greater than 50. What’s extra, he’s been particularly scorching as of late, with 16 steals in 17 makes an attempt over the previous month.
But, if it weren’t for all of the bases Caballero has already stolen, I don’t suppose anybody would peg him as a probable stolen base king. His dash velocity has declined notably in every of the previous two seasons, dropping from the ninetieth percentile in 2023 to the seventy fifth percentile in 2024 and now the 63rd percentile in 2025. Equally, his common house plate to first base time has elevated. This 12 months, 84 certified runners (per Statcast) have a quicker common home-to-first time than Caballero. As well as, he hasn’t “bolted” in any respect this season. As outlined by Statcast, a bolt is any run the place the runner’s dash velocity is above 30 ft per second in his quickest one-second window. Caballero bolted 5 occasions in 2023 and 5 occasions in 2024, however he has but to bolt in any respect in 2025. For context, 103 runners have bolted no less than as soon as this 12 months, whereas Witt leads the majors with 47 bolts.
Certainly, Witt is a lot quicker than Caballero in each measurable approach. Along with bolts, Witt leads the majors in dash velocity, whereas his home-to-first time ranks sixth. (All 5 gamers forward of him are left-handed hitters, which supplies them a slight benefit in getting out of the field.) Furthermore, Witt can be a vastly superior hitter to Caballero. Not solely does that imply he reaches base extra typically, giving him extra possibilities to steal, nevertheless it additionally means he performs extra typically and hits greater within the batting order, giving him extra possibilities to achieve base. In response to Baseball Reference, Witt has already had 121 stolen base alternatives this 12 months, to Caballero’s 64. There’s a very good probability that hole will solely enhance; Witt is underperforming his anticipated on-base proportion by 25 factors this 12 months, whereas Caballero is overperforming his xOBP by 12 factors. The more severe Caballero hits, the much less probably he’s to see taking part in time in Tampa Bay, whereas Witt’s spot within the two-hole of the Royals lineup is safe. Caballero has 47 steals to Witt’s 33 over the previous calendar 12 months, regardless of taking part in much less typically, usually batting decrease within the order, and reaching base at a decrease clip. That actually looks like an argument in Caballero’s favor. However, it’s inconceivable to disregard Witt’s superior talent set.
Someplace in between these two is Robert. His dash velocity ranks within the 89th percentile, whereas his 9 bolts put him among the many high 30 runners within the league. He doesn’t run fairly in addition to Witt, however he’s been quicker than Caballero. Nonetheless, it’s stunning to see Robert so excessive on the stolen base leaderboard. He has by no means stolen greater than 23 luggage in a season, which suggests he’s simply three steals away from surpassing his earlier profession excessive. Robert is protecting tempo with Witt and Caballero proper now, however he stands out. We’ve seen each of them steal upwards of 40 luggage in a season earlier than. We’ve by no means seen this type of stolen base prowess from Robert. All of the extra fascinating, he has stolen all these bases regardless of slumping badly on the plate. His on-base proportion is a career-worst .269, placing him among the many backside 10 certified hitters within the sport. As a consequence of his low OBP, he has solely had 64 stolen base alternatives this 12 months. That’s the identical quantity as Caballero, though Robert has taken 66 extra journeys to the plate. In principle, this can be a level in Robert’s favor in the case of his possibilities to guide the league in steals. Merely put, it’s onerous to think about his OBP will stay this low all season. He’s solely two years faraway from being a well-above-average hitter, and his xOBP is 43 factors higher than his precise on-base proportion. If Robert begins reaching base considerably extra typically and continues to steal at such a excessive clip, he may blast forward of Witt and Caballero.
One other AL contender to remember is José Ramírez. The veteran has by no means led the league in steals, however his 263 profession stolen bases rank fourth amongst lively gamers. He topped 40 steals for the primary time final 12 months and has already swiped 20 luggage in 2025. That places him on tempo for a career-high 48 in his age-32 season. Lastly, Chandler Simpson is a darkish horse within the race. The Rays rookie didn’t make his debut till mid-April and has been taking part in at Triple-A for the previous two weeks. Even so, he ranks fifth within the AL with 19 steals this season. Contemplating he stole these 19 bases in simply 35 video games, I wouldn’t be all that shocked if the Rays waited to name him up once more till after the commerce deadline and he nonetheless ended up pacing the AL in steals. In any case, we’re speaking a few man who swiped 104 luggage within the minors in 2024.
The competitors is extra simple within the NL, the place three proficient younger speedsters having fun with robust seasons rank 1-2-3 on the stolen base leaderboard. Oneil Cruz is simply three steals forward of Pete Crow-Armstrong for the NL lead, whereas final 12 months’s stolen base king, Elly De La Cruz, is scorching on their tails. Two-time NL stolen base king Trea Turner is shut behind in fourth place, whereas Victor Scott II, arguably the quickest runner within the Senior Circuit, is fifth. All informed, these 5 gamers are separated by simply six steals.
Cruz leads the best way with 24 steals, regardless of having missed a handful of video games right here and there with minor harm points. On a per-game foundation, he sits comfortably forward of all certified NL gamers, and he’s been profitable on all however two makes an attempt. Crow-Armstrong is barely quicker, in line with each dash velocity and home-to-first time. Nevertheless, his on-base abilities are poor, which can restrict his alternatives to steal. As for De La Cruz, he was quicker than both Cruz or Crow-Sturdy in 2023 and ’24, however he’s been a bit slower this season. That may very well be because of a minor leg harm he has performed by means of (per reporter Charlie Goldsmith). As he regains power, maybe De La Cruz will begin stealing on the similar tempo as final 12 months, leaving everybody else within the mud. At his finest, De La Cruz strikes quicker than Cruz and reaches base at the next clip than Crow-Armstrong.
Turner and Scott rank slightly below these three on the stolen base leaderboard, and their names aren’t fairly as buzzy. Nonetheless, they’re to not be forgotten on this dialog. Turner led the Nationwide League in steals in each 2018 and 2021. He’s in his thirties, however he stays one of many quickest gamers within the sport. His dash velocity is tied for third amongst certified NL runners, whereas his 42 bolts rank second within the Senior Circuit. He has additionally acquired extra plate appearances and has the next OBP than any of Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, and De La Cruz. In the meantime, Scott is the one NL runner who ranks forward of Turner in each dash velocity and bolts. His 18 steals are one fewer than Turner’s 19, however his success fee is best; Scott has solely been caught as soon as, whereas Turner has been gunned down on 5 events. But, Scott isn’t the identical caliber of hitter as Turner (or as Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, or De La Cruz).
Final however actually not least, I’d be remiss have been I to not point out Ohtani. From this date onward in 2024, Ohtani stole 44 bases. If he have been to do this once more, he would end with 55 steals this 12 months, whereas Cruz is at present on tempo to complete with 56. One other second-half surge from Ohtani is unlikely, to make sure, nevertheless it’s a chance price mentioning. We all know he’s able to pulling it off.
So, who do MLBTR readers suppose will lead the AL and NL in stolen bases this season? Have your say in the polls under:
Photographs courtesy of Philip G. Pavely and Joe Camporeale, Imagn Pictures.
