Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Pictures
For the Tampa Bay Rays, it was the fearsome energy of nature; for the Athletics, the whims of a grasping doofus. However whereas the trigger could differ, the result is identical: Each groups will play all 81 of their house video games this season in minor league parks. The A’s will arrange store at Sutter Well being Park, also called the house of the Triple-A River Cats; the Rays’ handle is now George M. Steinbrenner (GMS) Discipline, the erstwhile environs of the Single-A Tampa Tarpons. (The River Cats will share custody, whereas the Tarpons will transfer to a close-by backfield.)
That is suboptimal and type of embarrassing for the league. Nevertheless it does current a compelling analysis query: How will these parks play? In keeping with the three-year rolling Statcast park componentsthe Oakland Coliseum and Tropicana Discipline each certified as pitcher-friendly. The Coliseum ranked because the sixth-most pitcher-friendly park, suppressing offense 3% relative to league common, whereas Tropicana ranked because the third most, suppressing offense round 8%. The place will Sutter Well being and GMS Discipline settle in?
I began by how every park performed of their earlier minor league season. Over at Baseball AmericaMatt Eddy calculated the run-scoring surroundings for every ballpark within the 11 full-season minor leagues. Eddy discovered that Sutter Well being ranked as essentially the most pitcher-friendly Pacific Coast League park by far in 2024, permitting 31% fewer runs than the common PCL park. GMS Discipline performed nearer to impartial in comparison with its Florida State League friends, but it surely did considerably increase house runs, notably to left-handed hitters.
However these minor league park components can solely reveal a lot. They inform us, for instance, that Sutter Well being performed as pitcher-friendly within the PCL, however the PCL is essentially the most excessive run-scoring league in affiliated baseball, populated by high-altitude launch pads like El Paso, Albuquerque, Las Vegas and so forth. GMS Discipline is perhaps impartial for the Florida State League, however — by definition — all of these groups are in Florida.
Park components are at all times calculated as a operate of the peer group of ballparks. Because the Statcast group writes on their park issue web page, 100 is about to league common, and “the park-specific quantity is generated by every batter and pitcher, managed by handedness, and evaluating the frequency of that metric within the chosen park in comparison with the efficiency of these gamers in different parks.” In different phrases, to raised venture the most important league park components for these two new stadiums, they should be positioned in a significant league context.
Which may begin with analyzing the size of every park. Fenway Park performs as hitter-friendly as a result of hitters bang bushels of doubles off the Inexperienced Monster; house runs fly out of Cincinnati’s Nice American Ballpark largely because of the shallow targets within the energy alleys. As Martin Gallego wrote in his story on the topic for MLB.comthe Sutter Well being dimensions are roughly just like these of the Oakland Coliseum. GMS Discipline’s dimensions are equivalent to these of Yankee Stadium, a famously homer-friendly venue.
Sadly, it isn’t so simple as calculating the floor space of the outfield and calling it a day. Coors Discipline’s heart subject wall sits 415 toes from house plate; the left and proper subject foul poles are 347 toes and 350 toes from house, respectively. It additionally permits essentially the most runs. Within the skinny air of Coors, pitches are simpler to hit as a result of they transfer much less, they usually journey farther off the bat due to the lowered drag.
After we discuss concerning the environmental situations of ballparks, we’re actually speaking concerning the air density. As Alan Nathan writes, the drag and Magnus forces are each proportional to the density of the air. As this knowledge exhibits, the run-scoring situations of a stadium are, to a point, a operate of its air density:
Even after eradicating Coors from the dataset, there’s nonetheless a fairly robust relationship. (Fenway is the outlier on the highest proper with comparatively dense air and a hitter-friendly park issue.):
To get a way of the park components in West Sacramento and Tampa, then, it was essential to estimate the common air density of Sutter Well being and GMS Discipline throughout sport occasions. To start out, I downloaded hourly local weather knowledge for all of 2024 from the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Built-in Floor Database. The closest climate knowledge station to the A’s stadium is about 10 miles away, on the Sacramento Worldwide Airport. Conveniently, GMS Discipline is actually subsequent door to Tampa Worldwide Airport, which additionally homes one of many ISD stations.
For every scheduled A’s and Rays house sport and begin time within the upcoming 2025 season, I took the info from the equal 2024 date and begin time in addition to the next two hours, after which calculated the air density for every hour. The Rays, for instance, will open their season as we speak, March 28, 2025, at 4:10 PM Japanese. I first calculated the air density at Tampa Worldwide Airport at 4:00 PM, 5:00 PM, and 6:00 PM on March 28, 2024, repeated that for every of the 81 scheduled house video games, after which averaged the air density throughout all 243 observations.
Who cares about your methodology, you is perhaps saying. Give us the filth! Honest sufficient. Right here is the filth:
Common Air Density, Out of doors Stadiums
Park
Elevation (Meters)
Avg. Temp (F)
Avg. Humidity (%)
Air Density (kg/m^3)
Oracle Park
4
63.1
74.2
1.215
T-Cell Park
6
63.7
65.5
1.208
Fenway Park
2
67.8
66.4
1.205
RingCentral Coliseum
2
67.6
65
1.205
Petco Park
7
70.1
72.3
1.199
Citi Discipline
3
70.9
59.2
1.197
Yankee Stadium
7
71.2
63.4
1.196
Residents Financial institution Park
5
73.2
66.3
1.192
Angel Stadium
47
71
65.5
1.191
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
3
74.1
63.6
1.19
Nationals Park
8
76.3
64.3
1.185
Rogers Centre
83
67.8
65
1.181
Dodger Stadium
154
70.2
65.3
1.178
Sutter Well being Park
8
76.1
43.9
1.178
Wrigley Discipline
183
71.3
59.1
1.172
Assured Charge Discipline
180
71.9
60.1
1.17
Comerica Park
184
73.7
62.8
1.166
Nice American Ball Park
151
76
62.5
1.166
George M. Steinbrenner Discipline
8
82.1
66.8
1.165
American Household Discipline
187
67.1
66.5
1.165
Goal Discipline
252
69.8
60.4
1.165
Busch Stadium
137
77.2
60.3
1.165
Progressive Discipline
205
73.4
65.3
1.164
PNC Park
220
73.4
63.8
1.162
Kauffman Stadium
275
74
61.1
1.153
Truist Park
304
77.1
65.2
1.142
Coors Discipline
1584
72.4
36.4
0.987
Supply: David Appelman, Noaa
All knowledge from the 2024 season. (Sutter Well being and Steinbrenner are estimated.)
Given all of the chatter about Sacramento’s excessive warmth, that air density rating may shock you. At 1.178 kilograms per meter cubed, they’d rank smack dab in the midst of the pack amongst parks the place groups performed at the very least half their video games in outside situations. There are a number of the reason why the air is maybe surprisingly dense. For one, the league scheduled the A’s for a disproportionate variety of night time video gamesdecreasing the common temperature. And Sacramento doesn’t get tremendous scorching till the summer time months. (The park is prone to play fairly in another way in the summertime versus the cooler spring months.) The park sits fairly near sea degree, eradicating any altitude results. It’s additionally one of many driest parks within the sport, rating third lowest in common relative humidity.
GMS Discipline is prone to have thinner air than the Sacramento park, rating nearer to the highest of the league in common air density. Though the park is barely a pair dozen toes above sea degree, the common temperatures throughout sport time would have been 5 levels hotter than another stadium within the pattern; the common humidity would’ve ranked third. It’s going to be scorching and humid, and the ball goes to fly.
Utilizing the outfield sq. footage numbers supplied by this 2015 Andrew Fox FanGraphs Group Weblog piece and the air density figures supplied by David Appelman, the park components of those two stadiums might be very roughly modeled. I constructed a regression equation the place I may plug within the outfield sq. footage values and air density figures for our two parks of curiosity to (once more, very roughly) estimate what the park components is perhaps. Making use of these crude strategies, Sutter Well being appears one thing like a middle-of-the-pack stadium by park issue, whereas GMS Discipline figures to play like one of many extra hitter-friendly stadiums within the league. Listed below are the complete rankings with the projections for every of those stadiums:
Projected Park Elements
Park
Park Issue (Precise)
Park Issue (Projected)
Progressive Discipline
97
102.1
Nice American Ball Park
105
101.5
George M. Steinbrenner Discipline
TBD
101.5
PNC Park
101
100.9
Assured Charge Discipline
99
100.9
Goal Discipline
102
100.6
Busch Stadium
100
100.4
American Household Discipline
97
100.4
Wrigley Discipline
97
100.2
Sutter Well being
TBD
100.1
Residents Financial institution Park
101
99.5
Kauffman Stadium
104
99.4
Nationals Park
101
99.4
Dodger Stadium
100
99.3
Fenway Park
107
99.3
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
99
99.2
Comerica Park
98
98.9
Rogers Centre
100
98.8
Yankee Stadium
100
98.8
Angel Stadium
100
98.8
RingCentral Coliseum
97
97.8
T-Cell Park
91
97.7
Petco Park
96
97.6
Citi Discipline
97
97.5
SOURCE: Baseball Savant; FanGraphs neighborhood weblog
All knowledge from the 2024 season. Six parks are omitted as a result of they performed a majority of their video games indoors or as a result of outfield sq. footage knowledge was unavailable.
There are components I declined (learn: didn’t have time) to research. The wind path influences ball flight for each pitched and struck balls. (Todd Zola took a take a look at the wind situations of each ballparks for ESPN.) The quantity of foul territory is a related concern, particularly going from the spacious Oakland Coliseum to a extra customary setup in West Sacramento. And it’s attainable the batter’s eye, as at T-Cell Parkmay have an effect on the efficiency of hitters. Additionally, the angle of the solar. I may go on! However given the affect of environmental situations on run-scoring situations, I really feel moderately assured projecting at the very least that neither of those parks is prone to play as notably pitcher-friendly.
My accomplice and I watch the fact relationship present “Love Island UK.” Every time they tease the subsequent set of islanders, the promo copy is identical: “Two new bombshells enter the villa.” On “Love Island UK,” these bombshells stir the pot, shuffling the stale dynamics of the gathered British singles. On “MLB: Season 125,” Sutter Well being Park and George M. Steinbrenner Discipline will play the same function, scrambling the recognized situations of baseball as we’ve come to know it.
