Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Pictures
I nonetheless bear in mind the primary time I questioned, What if the colours I see aren’t the identical ones that different individuals see? What if the colour I understand as crimson seems the identical as what you understand as yellow? I used to be 10 years previous, and I felt like a budding scientist or thinker, or maybe a poet. Whichever one, I used to be already making ready my Nobel Prize acceptance speech.
I’ve since come to comprehend that my 10-year-old mind wasn’t asking something that each stoned faculty freshman hadn’t requested earlier than. I sounded much less like a Nobel Laureate and extra like John Kruk taking his position because the Phillies’ coloration commentator a bit too actually. That mentioned, the concept totally different human beings understand colours in numerous methods isn’t simply pot-fueled postulation or Krukian knowledge – it’s the reality. It could have blown my 10-year-old thoughts to study the colours I see aren’t essentially the colours everybody else sees, and it’s not nearly rods, cones, and intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells. Generally, it’s a matter of language.
Check out the 4 swatches under. Take into consideration what colours they’re. And no, the solutions aren’t Steven Kwan’s whiff fee, arm power, bat pace, and dash pace:
By way of lightness and saturation, the distinction between swatches A and B is roughly the identical because the distinction between swatches C and D. But, if I confirmed you the swatches one after the other and requested you to call every coloration, you’d most likely give totally different solutions for A and B (crimson and pink, respectively) and the identical reply for C and D: blue. It could be the identical if C and D have been two totally different tones of orange, yellow, inexperienced, or purple. English audio system consider “crimson” and “pink” as distinct coloration classes in a extra important manner than we do for shades of another hue.
That’s not the case for all languages. In Russian, for example, the phrases “синий” (romanized as “siniy”) and “голубой” (romanized as “goluboy”) confer with darker and lighter blue. What is especially fascinating about that is that having two totally different phrases for darker and lighter blue has been proven to assist Russian audio system distinguish between the 2 shades extra rapidly and precisely than English audio system. So, some cognitive psychologists theorize that the languages we communicate don’t simply describe the fabric world. They affect the way in which we understand it.
(A short apart: When the Royals drafted Victor Cole, the latest Russian-born participant to seem within the main leagues, I’m wondering in the event that they knew that nobody else was higher suited to tell apart between the darkish and light-weight blues of their uniforms?)
As a monolingual English speaker, I can barely comprehend how somebody might see totally different shades of blue as separate colours – regardless that I do the identical with crimson and pink. It feels as unusual as calling sizzling pizza and chilly pizza two totally different meals or left socks and proper socks two totally different objects of clothes. But, somebody from Russia is perhaps equally confused that I can’t simply distinguish between siniy and goluboy. It’s not about any intrinsic property of the colours. It’s all about language. Certainly, researchers have discovered comparable results in varied areas past coloration, together with the notion of every thing from objects and portions to time and area. What about line drives?
Batted balls are historically sorted into three major buckets based mostly on their vertical path and one other three based mostly on their horizontal path. Proper now, I’m within the vertical buckets: groundballs, fly balls, and line drives. Sports activities Information Options retains monitor of batted ball information, which we home right here at FanGraphs, so yow will discover these numbers alongside conventional stats like singles, doubles, triples, and residential runs. With a number of fast clicks, I can inform you Jose Altuve is the lively chief in groundballs, identical to he’s the lively chief in singles, and Freddie Freeman is the lively chief in line drives, identical to he’s the lively chief in extra-base hits. I used to be extra stunned to study Nolan Arenado is the lively chief in fly balls, and I feel that’s partially due to how typically he pops out. After I take away infield fly balls from the information, Andrew McCutchen jumps to the highest of the leaderboard. Therein lies the difficulty on the coronary heart of this piece: There are not any cut-and-dried guidelines for sorting batted balls. If you happen to checked out Baseball Savant as an alternative of our leaderboards, you wouldn’t discover Arenado or McCutchen sitting atop the fly ball rankings. Somewhat, you’d see Carlos Santana (for those who included popups) and Freeman (for those who didn’t).
In contrast to singles, doubles, triples, and residential runs, the several types of batted balls aren’t discrete classes. As with colours, they exist on a spectrum. Think about the swatches under. I took the colours instantly from three staff logos on MLB.com:
The Orioles’ and Astros’ logos are each orange. Whether or not you’d name the Athletics’ brand yellow or gold, what issues is that it’s in a distinct coloration class than the opposite two – regardless that the distinction between Astros orange and A’s yellow actually isn’t that a lot higher than the distinction between Orioles orange and Astros orange. All three colours exist someplace alongside the spectrum from crimson to orange to yellow, however two of them are “similar” and one is “totally different.”
Now, think about the three batted balls within the clips under:
Every got here off Trea Turner’s bat on the similar pace (98 mph), and the distinction in launch angle between the primary hit and the second hit is similar because the distinction in launch angle between the second and the third. Nevertheless, the primary two have been groundballs, in accordance with each SIS and Statcast, whereas the third was a line drive. All three hits exist alongside the groundball-to-line drive spectrum, however as with the colours, two of them are “similar” and one is “totally different.”
This isn’t a grand revelation. I’m hardly the primary individual to put in writing concerning the blurry line between groundballs and line drives and the even blurrier border separating line drives and fly balls. What I’m questioning is that if the rationale these two are labeled as separate sorts of batted balls…
…whereas these two are each line drives…
…is similar cause why we’d say JT Chargois is sporting the identical coloration in reveals A and B however a distinct coloration in exhibit C. Is all of it about language?
Categorical notion describes the human tendency to view variations between objects inside classes as a lot smaller than variations between objects in separate classes, even when these variations are of the identical magnitude. In different phrases, as soon as now we have created classes, intra-category variations can appear much less essential than inter-category ones.
For instance, analysis members have been discovered to understand variations between varieties of 1 coloration and variations between forms of one other coloration as a lot smaller than equal-sized variations that traverse the boundary between these two colours. This helps clarify why separating blue into two classes (siniy and goluboy) permits Russian audio system to higher distinguish between shades of blue. On the flip facet, it helps clarify why English audio system are worse at distinguishing between darker and lighter blues.
I feel now we have the identical drawback with line drives. Based on the Dickson Baseball Dictionary, the primary recognized use of the time period “line drive” was in an 1876 difficulty of the Chicago Tribune, although it was additionally used at the least a yr earlier to explain an identical sort of batted ball in cricket. Meaning the time period predates what we all know in the present day as Main League Baseball, and it has been round since lengthy, lengthy earlier than we had any method to measure launch angle or exit velocity. It’s the identical for “groundball” and “fly ball” (and “popup”). Does it actually make sense that we’re nonetheless utilizing the identical major classes for batted balls which were round for nearly so long as the sport itself? I imply, perhaps. However on the very least, it’s value contemplating that we solely deal with line drives as a single, unified class as a result of that’s all now we have the language to explain.
The colour time period “blue” implies an outlined class, distinct from inexperienced, crimson, and so on., and encompasses each shade from navy to powder. In the identical manner, the time period “line drive” implies an outlined class, distinct from groundballs and fly balls, and encompasses all types of contact from low screamers to frozen-rope house runs. But, I’m wondering if it wouldn’t be extra helpful to separate line drives into two classes: low line drives and excessive line drives. Utilizing the qualifiers “low” and “excessive” makes it look like I’m discussing subcategories, however that’s solely as a result of an absence of particular language forces subcategorization. You don’t must say darkish and light-weight blue when you have got siniy and goluboy.
Over the previous three seasons, main league batters have hit almost 75,000 line drives, per Statcast. The median launch angle of these 75,000 line drives is someplace round 16 to 17 levels. That’s additionally the approximate midpoint between the place line drive batting common peaks (12-13 levels) and line drive ISO peaks (21 levels). So, 16 levels looks like the suitable upward cutoff level for a “low liner,” and 17 levels looks like the suitable start line for a “excessive liner.” Utilizing these definitions, right here’s how the 2 sorts of batted ball have carried out since 2023:
Low Liners vs. Excessive Liners (Since 2023)
Batted Ball
BA
ISO
wOBA
Low Liner
.752
.187
.731
Excessive Liner
.514
.325
.563
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Near 58% of low liners have become singles, in comparison with 27% of excessive liners. In the meantime, excessive liners are about 130 instances extra prone to be house runs. Out of greater than 38,000 low liners from the previous three seasons, simply 10 have left the yard. That’s not so stunning; a batter has to utterly smoke the baseball to get it over the fence with a launch angle below 17 levels. Nonetheless, low liners are much more productive than excessive liners as a result of they’re a lot tougher to catch. Solely 1 / 4 of low liners flip into outs, whereas excessive liners discover a fielder’s glove nearly half the time.
Right here’s how these numbers look in comparison with the identical stats for groundballs and fly balls:
4 Varieties of Batted Balls (Since 2023)
Batted Ball
BA
ISO
wOBA
Groundballs
.248
.024
.228
Low Liner
.752
.187
.731
Excessive Liner
.514
.325
.563
Fly Balls + Popups
.209
.429
.340
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
The distinction in ISO between excessive liners and low liners is nearly as large because the distinction in ISO between low liners and groundballs. Equally, the distinction in batting common between low liners and excessive liners actually isn’t that a lot smaller than the distinction in batting common between excessive liners and fly balls. So, when it comes to the outcomes they generate, low liners and excessive liners are roughly as totally different from each other as they’re from another sort of batted ball. There’s additionally a visible element. Low liners extra intently resemble groundballs, whereas excessive liners have extra in frequent with fly balls, and that’s not simply due to every’s proximity to the bottom. Low liners, like groundballs, usually tend to be hit to the batter’s pull facet. In the meantime, excessive liners, like fly balls, are much less prone to be pulled than they’re to be hit straightaway or to the other subject:
Spray Angle Distribution (Since 2023)
Batted Ball
Pull Charge
Straightaway Charge
Reverse-Subject Charge
Groundball
49.2%
38.6%
12.3%
Low Liner
42.4%
36.4%
21.2%
Excessive Liner
34.6%
36.8%
28.6%
Fly Balls + Popups
27.0%
36.7%
36.3%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
You can argue that every one this proves is that batted balls exist on a spectrum, which was by no means up for debate. In spite of everything, you may suppose, we might chop up any sort of batted ball into any variety of smaller teams and are available away with totally different stats for every subtype. Which may effectively be true, however by that line of pondering, there’s no level in categorizing batted balls in any respect.
Nobody would disagree that the exact cutoff factors for any system of batted ball classification are arbitrary. Nonetheless, batted ball varieties are an extremely useful gizmo for describing and analyzing the sport. Meaningless cutoff factors are a vital evil within the creation of classes that completely do matter. So, this has by no means been a query of discovering the “appropriate” dividing traces between several types of contact. Somewhat, it’s about being open to the concept a number of phrases invented 150 years in the past aren’t the be-all and end-all of batted balls.
So why excessive and low line drives? I might present you the stats for top and low groundballs or excessive and low fly balls, but it surely wouldn’t be as attention-grabbing. A groundball hit too low is simply poor contact. The identical goes for a fly ball hit too excessive. High and low line drives, nonetheless, are each efficient however in numerous methods. Low liners are beneficial as a result of they’re more likely than groundballs to go for singles. Excessive liners are beneficial as a result of they’re a lot much less possible than fly balls to be caught after they don’t escape the yard.
That’s just about the crux of the matter: Low liners and excessive liners reach other ways. To that time, think about the pronounced distinction in common exit velocity and hard-hit fee between high and low liners:
Low Liners Are Laborious Liners…
Batted Ball
EV
Laborious-Hit%
Low Liner
97.0 mph
65.1%
Excessive Liner
90.7 mph
42.8%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
It makes intuitive sense that low liners, on common, are hit tougher; in the event that they weren’t hit onerous sufficient, they’d contact the bottom too quickly and be labeled groundballs as an alternative of line drives. The factor is, whereas low liners usually tend to be hit onerous, they don’t should be hit as onerous to be able to achieve success. Laborious-hit low liners have a wOBA 15% increased than non-hard-hit low liners. Laborious-hit excessive liners have a wOBA 38% increased than non-hard-hit excessive liners. Even so, they nonetheless aren’t as beneficial as their hard-hit low counterparts:
…However They Don’t Have To Be
Batted Ball
wOBA
Low Liner (Laborious-Hit)
.766
Low Liner (Not Laborious-Hit)
.665
Excessive Liner (Laborious-Hit)
.670
Excessive Liner (Not Laborious-Hit)
.484
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
The opposite facet of that coin is that prime liners have much more to realize from extra exit velocity. At an exit velocity of round 105 mph, excessive liners lastly eclipse low liners in productiveness, and so they solely get extra beneficial the tougher they’re hit. Low liners, however, are all equally productive at any exit velocity between 90 and 104 mph, and so they solely change into marginally extra productive with every added mile per hour above 105:
Information by way of Baseball Savant
The easy rationalization for that is low liners and excessive liners have totally different objectives. All else being equal, hitting the ball tougher is nearly all the time going to result in higher outcomes on the plate. That mentioned, exit velocity makes a a lot greater distinction for those who’re going for additional bases. The distinction between a double and a house run is commonly only a few miles per hour of exit velocity. In terms of hitting singles, nonetheless, typically it’s equally efficient to dink the ball in entrance of the outfielders as it’s to ship it over their heads.
On a associated observe, the distinction between high and low line drives has grown extra pronounced lately. Baseball Prospectus’s Russell Carlton has written about line drives extensively, noting that they’re being caught at the next fee than up to now and, maybe in response, line drive charges have declined. But, in accordance with the Statcast information, these results haven’t been the identical for each high and low line drives.
Low line drives, that are much less vulnerable to being caught, even have the next batting common over the previous three seasons than they did within the first three years (or another three-year interval) of the Statcast period. That’s all of the extra spectacular contemplating the league-wide BABIP has declined considerably, dropping from .300 from 2015-17 to simply .293 from 2023-25. Moreover, the low line drive fee has solely declined by half as a lot because the excessive line drive fee. Because of this, batters proceed to generate nearly as a lot worth with low line drives as they did originally of the Statcast period. In distinction, excessive line drives have change into a far much less plentiful supply of runs:
Low and Excessive Liners By way of the Yearse
Low Liners
Excessive Liners
2015-17
.738
12.7%
109
.552
12.6%
153
2023-25
.752
12.2%
98
.514
11.6%
60
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
I hope all this was sufficient to persuade you that low liners and excessive liners are helpful as distinct classes for describing and understanding the sport. There’ll by no means be an ideal method to slap labels onto a spectrum. Dividing traces will all the time be fuzzy, and language will all the time restrict the labels we create. Even my proposal to separate line drives in two is biased by language; if there have been a typical English phrase for “medium top,” maybe I’d be suggesting three new groupings as an alternative of simply excessive and low.
In the end, nonetheless, I’m not too involved with whether or not excessive and low line drives are the right classes to counsel, or if I’ve break up them up the correct manner. What issues to me most is solely contemplating the likelihood that such extra classes exist. If language is the one factor holding us again from perceiving blue as two discrete colours, perhaps it’s additionally the one factor stopping us from seeing line drives as two several types of batted balls. Maybe it’s time to open our eyes to the siniy and goluboy of line drives.
All stats by June 29.
