Kevin Sousa-Imagn Pictures
Final week, we acquired a mailbag query from a Jacob Younger fan named David. Truly, it was a multi-part query, and the third sub-question was significantly enjoyable: Are we now in an period of Peak Centerfield Protection? It looks as if each group has a centerfielder that may go get it.
My intestine response to this query was easy: Sure, we’re in all probability in an period of peak heart area protection. I think the sport has in all probability been in that period most of the time ever since integration, and that peak has stored on rising. I saved David’s different sub-questions for this Saturday’s mailbag, however for this explicit one, I assumed it is likely to be enjoyable to suppose it via and dig deeper than I might within the mailbag.
First, let me clarify my intestine response. Greater than another place, heart area rewards pure athleticism, and the athletes maintain getting higher. The participant pool retains increasing, and gamers (and people normally) maintain getting larger, stronger, and quicker. All of this implies the bar to make it to the majors in any respect is that a lot greater. I’ve obtained baseball-specific causes, too. The league retains getting higher at positioning defenders the place the ball is extra prone to go, permitting them to make much more of their superlative abilities. And since we maintain getting higher at precisely measuring defensive contributions, we’re in a position to acknowledge and reward defensive worth higher than ever.
After saying all that, although, I’ve to confess the plain: There’s no technique to know the reply definitively. We now have valuable little Statcast knowledge about Ty Cobb’s dash velocity or Duke Snider’s response time. Up till this century, play-by-play knowledge is all we have now to go on in evaluating defenders. Sean Smith analyzed that knowledge to create a defensive metric known as Whole Zonewhich is what informs the defensive grades on our leaderboards up till 2002, when extra superior defensive metrics like UZR, DRS, and FRV take over. At the moment’s metrics are nowhere close to excellent, however take a second to cease and take into consideration how far we’ve come. Statcast can inform you precisely how a lot time each outfielder needed to attain each ball, how far they traveled, how briskly they ran, how environment friendly their route was, and the way rapidly they reacted because the ball got here off the bat. That’s a good distance from extrapolating from play-by-play knowledge.
I understand that David wasn’t essentially asking concerning the total high quality of heart area play, however whether or not we’re residing in a time after we’ve obtained a very excessive variety of glorious defenders. It feels that method, proper? Consider all the middle fielders proper now whom you’d classify as extraordinarily good defenders. My checklist would positively embrace Younger, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Denzel Clarke, CEDDANNE RAFAELA, Victor Scott IIand Jose Siriand I wouldn’t argue with anyone who additionally included Byron Buxton, Julio Rodríguez, Jake Meyers, Kyle Isbel, Michael Harris II, Daulton varsho, Harrison Baderor Myles Straw. I’m unsure what’s occurred to Brenton Doylehowever earlier than the season we might have put him on this checklist, as nicely. Rapidly, we’ve obtained half the groups in baseball with an elite heart area defender.
Now perhaps it’s all the time felt that method. Simply to choose a date out of a hat, in case you return to 1999, you’ve obtained defensive standouts like Andruw Jones, Mike Cameron, Carlos Beltrán, Steve Finley, Darren Lewisand Kenny Lofton. For those who return to the Fifties, you’ve obtained Willie Mays, Mickey Mantleand Duke Snider all in the identical metropolis. For that cause, I made a decision to see what I might do with the numbers obtainable to me.
Even when we are able to’t know the reply definitively, we are able to have some enjoyable with the information at our disposal. We now have all these totally different numbers – TZ, UZR, DRS, DRP, OAA, FRV – however none of them matches up completely. They’re all working off totally different knowledge sources. They’re all utilizing totally different strategies based mostly on totally different philosophies. They’re taking a look at totally different eras with totally different kinds of play. They’re all grading on totally different curves, judging gamers in keeping with the league common of their explicit yr, which makes it very exhausting to match gamers from totally different eras. It’s an excellent mess, however it signifies that we have to consider another methods to investigate issues.
Let’s begin by contemplating how heart fielders are incomes their enjoying time. For those who’re not hitting nicely and also you’re not fielding nicely, you’re in all probability not going to remain on the sector. For those who’re doing one nicely, you will get away with doing a worse job on the different. Now check out how heart fielders have hit since 1900.
That graph goes nowhere however down, and it’s been on that trajectory for the reason that starting. This season, the league has a mixed wRC+ of 92 at heart area. If it holds, it will be the bottom mark ever recorded. Nevertheless, heart fielders aren’t worse gamers than ever. Right here’s a graph that exhibits defensive run worth per 600 plate appearances. That is simply the Def column that you simply see all the way in which on the correct of our most important leaderboard. Earlier than you have a look at it, let me warn you that I’m dishonest a little bit bit by exhibiting it to you.
Right here’s how I’m dishonest. Not all people is enjoying heart area on a regular basis. It simply exhibits gamers whose major place is listed as heart area. We stopped utilizing whole zone for these numbers in 2002, so the newer numbers are based mostly on a wholly totally different method. However the total development is about as unambiguous because it will get. For the primary half of baseball historical past, the numbers say that heart fielders weren’t essentially nice defenders, however that modified within the late Fifties, then cemented itself within the late Nineteen Eighties.
The large cause why that is dishonest, although, is as a result of these numbers embrace a positional adjustment. As you possible know in case you’ve made it this far, positional changes give extra credit score to more durable defensive spots and take credit score from simpler ones. For those who have a look at heart area defensive metrics for anyone yr, they need to be proper round zero most of the time. Nevertheless excessive the bar is, there will probably be good, common, and dangerous heart fielders, they usually’ll cancel one another out. This graph is saying that the bar has gotten greater over time, in comparison with different positions on the sector. That’s all of the extra obvious in case you have a look at the identical graph with the corners included.
This shouldn’t essentially be my persuasive argument. In spite of everything, I didn’t crunch the numbers and resolve on the positional changes myself. I’m simply exhibiting you their impact on the way in which we worth outfielder protection. Nevertheless, once you view this alongside the reducing wRC+ of heart fielders, the conclusion is clear. Protection has by no means been a extra necessary a part of the job, and the hole between protection in heart area and the corners has by no means been greater.
Realizing all this, what makes me say that this very second might be peak heart area protection? For starters, gamers are simply plain quicker nowadays – and I don’t simply imply quicker than they had been within the Fifties. We now have 11 years of Statcast knowledge monitoring each participant’s common dash velocity. For annually, I calculated the dash velocity of the common heart fielder, prorating it by innings performed (and ignoring any participant who didn’t play sufficient to register a dash velocity). Within the first three years, from 2015 to 2017, the common heart fielder had a dash velocity of 28.4 toes per second. Within the final three years, from 2023 to 2025, the common is 28.6. That will seem to be a small change, however it’s additionally happening over an awfully brief timeframe. We will truthfully say that heart fielders are measurably quicker at present than they had been simply 10 years in the past! It’s not exhausting to extrapolate additional again in time.
If we prolong our gaze a bit to soak up the whole lot of the pitch-tracking period, we are able to see that balls simply aren’t falling in the way in which they used to. The graph under goes again to 2008, and it exhibits the batting common for each ball labeled as both a line drive or a fly ball hit straightaway (not together with house runs). It begins at .393 and ends at .346. Almost 50 factors of common simply disappeared into the gloves of heart fielders.
That is fairly stark, however even this graph is underselling the distinction a bit. Right here’s the identical graph, however now it consists of wOBA, too. The brand new purple wOBA line falls even steeper than the blue line. Middle fielders aren’t simply robbing batters of extra hits. They’re additionally higher at holding batters to singles and stopping extra-base hits. That drop-off is almost 60 factors.
I believe that is about as definitive because it will get. Since 2008, there’s by no means been a worse time to hit the ball to heart area. As far as we are able to inform, protection has by no means been a extra necessary a part of a middle fielder’s job, and heart fielders have by no means been so significantly better than nook outfielders. In all, we’re in all probability at peak heart area protection proper now. And we’ll in all probability keep there.
