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Canada is not an outlier in its Trump struggle, which is dangerous information for Mark Carney
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Printed Apr 04, 2025 • Final up to date 2 hours in the past • 5 minute learn
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Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks throughout a press convention within the lobby of the Home of Commons in Ottawa, ON. on Thursday, April 3, 2025. Photograph by Bryan Passifiume/Toronto Solar/Postmedia Community
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With U.S. President Donald Trump seeming to again off his threats towards Canada, the Liberals could have misplaced their single most potent marketing campaign challenge.
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When the Liberals first started experiencing a polling resurgence underneath new chief Mark Carney, Canada’s most urgent political challenge was the financial risk from the U.S.
A March 24 Leger ballot was one of many first main polls to place Carney on observe for a majority, and it partially recognized Trump as the rationale.
After years of the Liberals being hammered in polls that ranked affordability as Canadians’ high political concern, Leger discovered that this had all of a sudden been eclipsed by fears of Trump. When requested the “most essential query on this federal election,” 36 per cent of respondents stated it was discovering a first-rate minister to “take care of President Trump and aggressive U.S. commerce actions.”
An Abacus Information ballot from across the identical time discovered that whereas voters have been nonetheless skeptical of Liberal administration of affordability and the financial system, it was a special story when it got here to the Trump commerce warfare.
When requested which get together chief can be “finest capable of take care of any of the results of Trump,” Carney took the highest spot at 36 per cent to Conservative Chief Pierre Poilievre’s 34 per cent.
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In a March 30 Ipsos Reid ballot, Carney equally ranked because the best choice for prime minister, with respondents citing his Trump-handling abilities. On the query of which get together chief may “stand as much as President Trump,” Carney acquired 40 per cent to Poilievre’s 28 per cent.
On the time of Carney’s March 14 swearing-in, Canada was arguably the one most conspicuous goal of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
Though Mexico was additionally throughout the crosshairs of the primary main Trump tariffs, the premise was flimsiest when it got here to Canada.
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The White Home justified the commerce warfare by citing Canada as a centre of “unchecked drug trafficking” – a declare quickly contradicted by its personal safety companies, which didn’t even point out Canada as a drug provider in a March risk evaluation.
All of the whereas, Trump was repeatedly threatening Canada with annexation.
However now, the main focus is decidedly off Canada as Trump widened his commerce warfare on Wednesday to incorporate greater than 200 extra nations — a lot of that are being hit even tougher than Canada. Sri Lanka, for one, was tariffed at 44 per cent.
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Whereas Canada’s prior tariffs stay, it was notably left off the brand new record — a indisputable fact that didn’t make it into Carney’s official video assertion responding to the Trump announcement.
“We’re going to struggle these new tariffs with countermeasures,” Carney stated in a video tackle from Ottawa, the place he had gathered along with his cupboard in obvious anticipation of latest U.S. tariffs.
In an extended assertion, Carney would make clear that he was referring to not tariffs particularly laid towards Canada on Wednesday, however which might have an oblique impact on Canada by damaging the “worldwide buying and selling system.”
On Wednesday, Liberal candidates continued to emphasize the specter of Trump, even within the wake of the reprieve. “Donald Trump stays the central risk to Canada.… Mark Carney helped Canada keep away from the worst and is the one one that will defend our financial system and defend our sovereignty,” reads a Wednesday submit to X by Toronto Centre Liberal candidate Evan Solomon.
Trump has additionally backed off his regular annexation threats. The final time he known as Canada the 51st assertion was almost a month in the past on March 11, when he was reacting to a risk from Ontario Premier Doug Ford to dam electrical energy exports to the U.S.
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“The one factor that is smart is for Canada to turn into our cherished Fifty First State. This could make all Tariffs, and every little thing else, completely disappear,” he wrote.
Within the weeks since, Trump has barely talked about Canada, other than a glowing overview of his first telephone name with Carney.
“It was a particularly productive name, we agree on many issues, and shall be assembly instantly after Canada’s upcoming Election to work on components of Politics, Enterprise, and all different elements, that may find yourself being nice for each the USA of America and Canada,” he wrote.
Not solely was the submit devoid of annexation threats, but it surely marked one of many few instances that Trump has referred to a senior Canadian political determine with out belittling them. Carney’s predecessor Justin Trudeau was regularly mocked by Trump as “governor” — a reference to Trump’s 51st state rhetoric.
The U.S. president has additionally expressed his distaste for Carney’s chief opponent within the federal election, referring to Poilievre as “not a MAGA man” who was making a “massive mistake” by talking out towards U.S. tariff coverage.
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A large-ranging Modern Analysis ballot launched this week was the primary for the reason that begin of the election marketing campaign to place the Conservatives within the lead towards the Liberals (38 per cent Tory to 37 per cent Liberal).
The ballot discovered that Canadians nonetheless favoured Carney because the main prime minister to take care of Trump. When respondents have been requested who was “finest outfitted to deal with Canada-U.S. relations throughout Trump’s renewed presidency,” 43 per cent picked Carney to only 33 per cent choosing Poilievre.
Fork
The NDP has leaned exhausting into anti-Israel rhetoric this election, a pattern that took its most weird flip this week when NDP Chief Jagmeet Singh appeared in a video with a keffiyeh-wearing anti-Israel activist whose day job contains doing X-rated content material on OnlyFans underneath the identify Jessica Wetz. The NDP ended up distancing themselves from Singh’s video with Wetz, however not due to the OnlyFans connection and even that it falsely claims that Canada sells arms to Israel (Singh himself voted for a moratorium to dam Canadian army exports to Israel). Relatively, the get together took challenge with previous feedback by Wetz wherein she in contrast Israel to Nazi Germany.
Talking of Trump financial coverage, the U.S. determination to tariff every little thing in sight has had a disastrous impression on the U.S. financial system. The above chart of the S&P 500 index, compiled by College of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, exhibits that Wednesday represented one of many greatest inventory market devaluations of the final 50 years. “Of 11,406 buying and selling days since January 1980, solely 29 had bigger declines,” wrote Tombe. Though dangerous U.S. economies makes for dangerous Canadian economies, it is a nice billboard for Canada’s frequent rivalry that tariffs are a foul concept.
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