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You’re most likely fairly good at baseball if you find yourself on this checklist:
Highest wOBA, Aerial Contact, 2025
Minimal 100 batted balls in air, contains line drives, fly balls, and popups
I get it. “Doing injury whenever you elevate the ball” isn’t the one ability that’s essential to be main league hitter. It’s not even near the one crucial ability. Alternatively, take a look at that checklist! It goes 10 hitters deep, and so they’re all nice. The worst man on that checklist might be Christian Yelich, and he’s having a pleasant yr regardless of coping with his persistent case of can’t-ever-get-the-ball-off-the-ground-itis.
Psh! Who cares about wOBA? What even is wOBA? Initially, excellent news, right here’s an article explaining it in nice element. Second, tremendous, let’s use a special statistic then. Right here’s slugging share, identical minimal of 100 batted balls:
Highest SLG, Aerial Contact, 2025
Participant
SLG
Aaron Choose
1.402
Nick Kurtz
1.370
Shohei Ohtani
1.321
James Wooden
1.234
Christian Yelich
1.225
Kyle Stowers
1.174
Kyle Schwarber
1.172
Riley Greene
1.104
Cal Raleigh
1.077
Elly De La Cruz
1.068
Minimal 100 batted balls in air, contains line drives, fly balls, and popups
The title and picture have already given it away, however that is an article about Nick Kurtz, and regardless of the way you slice it, he finally ends up on the prime of the league in case you’re searching for energy within the air. He’s second in wOBA, seventh in xwOBA, second in slugging, fifth in xSLG, seventh in common exit velocity, tenth in hard-hit price, and eighth in barrel price. He appears to be like proper at house on a listing of large main league hitters doing large main league hitter issues. And why wouldn’t he? In any case, he’s among the finest hitters in baseball.
You heard me. Take into account this a mea culpa to Kurtz, who completely ought to have been on my High 50 Commerce Worth checklist, however bought misplaced within the shuffle as a result of he didn’t embark on his power-hitting binge till after I bought occurring the checklist and as a substitute ended up as an Honorable Point out. I received’t point out it once more, however I’m simply getting it out right here: This dude rocks and I’m completely in on him. Slide him someplace shut behind Ketel Marte. Anyway, on with the article!
One other fast look over that checklist of prime hitters makes one factor clear: These are giant males who generate big bat velocity to get to their outcomes. Kurtz suits proper in. Decrease the minimums in order that he qualifies, and he’s fourth within the majors in bat velocity this yr. He’s second in quick swing price, the share of his swings which might be 75 mph or more durable. This isn’t rocket science. Nicely, it’s, really – we’re utilizing extremely superior expertise to measure ballistics – however “why is Nick Kurtz doing nicely?” is a straightforward sufficient query to reply. He swings actually arduous and hits the ball actually arduous.
Oh, you suppose pitchers ought to lean into the artwork of pitching and preserve this man from getting off his greatest swing? It doesn’t work that approach. Change his timing, mess along with his eye stage, put him in a state of affairs the place he needs to be defensive? Good luck! If he swings, he’s swinging with an intent to seize further bases, no matter the place you place the ball. Give him a sinker down? He’s made contact with 12 of them up to now, and he’s batting .667 with two doubles and two homers. Get him to 2 strikes? First, hey, congratulations, everyone seems to be dangerous with two strikes. Second, Kurtz nonetheless swings ludicrously arduous with two strikes; his swing velocity declines by lower than a mile an hour. And when he makes contact with two strikes, he’s batting .510 and slugging 1.000. If you wish to beat Kurtz, you’ll be able to’t let him get his bat on the ball.
That brings me to Kurtz’s subsequent nice ability: discernment. Loads of guys swing arduous. He’s a standout even there, however nonetheless, Riley Adams, Jordan Walker, and Jhonkensy Noel are in about the identical spot on the bat velocity leaderboard. Jac Caglianone, a fellow top-10 draft decide from 2024, has the identical bat velocity – and a 29 wRC+ in his first 41 video games as an enormous leaguer. Swing as large as you need; in case you can’t make contact with the ball, nobody cares. These less-fearsome sluggers have an mixture chase price of 37%. Kurtz checks in at 21.9%, within the 82nd percentile for main league hitters.
That’s the Kurtz ability set: Look ahead to a ball within the strike zone and take the largest conceivable hack at it. It’s a extremely efficient ability set! It has one apparent flaw, one which he shares with a lot of his big-swingin’ brethren: contact. Sure, Kurtz is nice at determining which pitches to hit. No, he doesn’t all the time hit them. His 70% contact price and 79% zone contact price are each nicely beneath common. That’s not an unworkable challenge – Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Choose have comparable numbers – but it surely’s positively his weak level. His 30.3% strikeout price is horrifying. The one participant in baseball who chases much less typically and strikes out extra typically is Pavin Smith.
So sure, Kurtz is likely one of the greatest hitters on the planet, however as is the case with the entire elite offensive gamers who’ve come earlier than him, he’s going to should make changes if he’s going to turn into an everyday member of this camp. You merely can’t strike out this typically and hit this nicely in the long term. Oh, you will be superb, however not fairly nearly as good as Kurtz has been.
What adjustment ought to he make? From the skin, I can solely guess at what his thought course of is on the plate. Even so, it appears to me that he nonetheless must discover ways to rein his swing in at instances. He hits the ball so cartoonishly arduous that it might nonetheless go far if he eased off a bit of bit. Right here’s one mind-set about it: Most hitters have comparable whiff charges with and with out two strikes. You may suppose that’s bizarre, that their whiff charges ought to decline once they begin defending the plate, however they’re not working in a vacuum. Pitchers begin throwing nastier, extra chase-seeking pitches with two strikes. Throughout the majors, batters whiff 25.4% of the time with out two strikes and 24.4% with two strikes, just about indistinguishable.
Kurtz is all the time going to come back up empty extra typically than the typical large leaguer. His non-two-strike whiff price is 30.7%. However with two strikes, it jumps to 38.6%. He’s not doing his half to make extra contact, so the nastier pitches balloon his whiff price. That, in flip, means extra strikeouts. Kurtz strikes out on 28.1% of the two-strike pitches he sees. The one participant within the majors worse than that’s Michael Toglia, and Toglia is 2 wins beneath substitute stage this yr. Main league pitchers are so good that two-strike counts come up continuously for everybody. To maintain his absurd energy manufacturing going, Kurtz goes to have to vary what he does in these conditions.
Nicely, I’m being a bit of beneficiant there. There’s no probability Kurtz retains hitting for this a lot energy. He’s sporting a .609 wOBA on contact. Don’t attempt to make it concerning the park, both; he has a 178 wRC+ at house and a 180 wRC+ on the street. I don’t want to provide you xStats or something like that to inform you that this will’t proceed. I can simply use latest historical past as a information.
The perfect wOBACON of the Statcast period belongs to Choose, at .566. The one different guys above .500 in any significant period of time are Ohtani (.506) and Mike Trout (.504). I’m not able to say that Kurtz is an ordinary deviation higher than Choose as an influence hitter. Let’s as a substitute name it a very nice scorching streak from an already-high true-talent stage. Joey Gallo put up a .644 wOBACON one yr. Choose set his full-season excessive of .617 final yr, although he’s topping that by greater than 20 factors this season (.639). It’s nearly not value contemplating the precise magnitude of how a lot injury Kurtz is doing on contact – he’s not going to maintain doing this a lot, interval.
If you concentrate on it, that is sensible. Kurtz strikes out 30.3% of the time, walks solely 11% of the time, and has a 179 wRC+. Shohei Ohtani strikes out 26.8% of the time, walks 13.7% of the time, and has a 164 wRC+. Kurtz is hitting for a lot energy that he’s greater than making up for his disadvantages in strikeouts and walks. For those who scale his true expertise right down to merely having top-shelf energy as a substitute of top-shelf-on-a-hot-streak energy, the strikeouts will begin to matter extra. To be a very transcendent hitter, he’ll must determine them out.
A rookie needing to enhance on one thing? That occurs on a regular basis. A rookie needing to enhance on one thing, but nonetheless posting a 179 wRC+? That’s much more attention-grabbing. It additionally provides me an opportunity to make extra tier lists – this time for rookie efficiency. Right here’s how I take a look at it: Over the previous 15 years, you’ll be able to break rookie performers up into a number of tiers. The highest two tiers are the attention-grabbing ones, as you’ll see.
On the prime, you’ve bought the blokes with no holes of their offensive efficiency. My archetypical latest examples listed below are Trout, Yordan Alvarez, and Juan Soto. They posted big seasonal traces. They bought on base. They hit a pile of homers and made sufficient contact to maintain their strikeouts beneath management. That they had strong plate self-discipline throughout the board, from low chase charges to excessive stroll charges. You would look by the whole lot of their rookie statistical data and discover little or no to dislike. The gamers on this group are taking pictures stars, guys who appear can’t-miss and possibly are. It’s extra about breadth of efficiency than uncooked wRC+. These guys are nice and with out flaws, that’s the important thing factor.
The subsequent tier down? It’s certifiably elite too. This group has lots to love however a flaw or two that can want finding out. The flaw is nearly, however not all the time, strikeout price. Ohtani, Pete Alonso, Fernando Tatis Jr., Gary Sánchez, Matt Olson, Keston Hiura, and Miguel Sanó every put up a 150ish wRC+ however a scary strikeout price. Trea Turner, Michael Harris II, and Julio Rodríguez had nice rookie years with chase price/stroll price issues. Adley Rutschman and Jackson Merrill had been superb however with middling energy output.
Beneath that, you get to the merely good rookie seasons that make me proceed to suppose no matter I beforehand thought concerning the prospect. Lately, consider Bobby Witt Jr., Wyatt Langford, and Jordan Walker. The fellows on this group can go both approach; they’re nonetheless adjusting to the majors, and their careers nonetheless have each appreciable upside and appreciable danger. These are powerful evaluations, the time to dig in probably the most.
The underside tier of the checklist is simply everybody else. There’s no motive these guys can’t pan out, they only haven’t but. Perhaps there are some doubtlessly deadly flaws, perhaps the upside is unclear, however writing a participant off after a single season by no means is sensible. Actually, although, they’ll must do some enhancing to succeed long-term within the main leagues. The underside group is the largest, naturally; it’s actually arduous to succeed as a rookie towards a bunch of grown males who’ve been doing this as a full-time job for years.
For me, Kurtz’s season has already landed him solidly within the second tier. He can unquestionably demolish main league pitching. Even when that all the time comes with an enormous strikeout price, his otherworldly energy provides him a excessive flooring. In my head, I’m picturing his season as an up to date model of Alonso’s rookie marketing campaign, with equally big energy (Alonso set the rookie house run file) and loads of strikeouts. If Kurtz hits his present projection for the remainder of the yr (125 wRC+), he’ll end with a wRC+ within the mid-150s and a ton of nice counting stats; that sounds lots like Alonso season to me.
That’s not the acute upside case, although. The acute upside case is that he simply retains doing what he’s been doing up to now, and that his Judgian batted ball high quality solely declines to otherworldly as a substitute of falling approach again to the pack. For those who’ll discover, I didn’t embrace Choose’s rookie yr within the tiers above. He’s one thing else. His rookie yr had an apparent crimson flag – he struck out 30.7% of the time — however he additionally posted a 174 wRC+, the best in AL/NL historical past since Joe Jackson in 1911, and set the rookie house run file that might be eclipsed by Alonso a yr later. It was an off-the-charts begin to a profession that instructed a beforehand untraveled path to stardom.
That’s most likely a 99th percentile consequence for Kurtz, simply so we’re clear. There’s just one Aaron Choose. However Kurtz is off to the sort of begin to a profession that everybody ought to sit up and take discover of. He’s not an entire hitter but – however he hasn’t wanted to be. He’s a premium energy risk with elite plate self-discipline. He was in school final yr. The trajectory is difficult to disregard. I’m very excited to observe Kurtz attempt to deal with every part the league throws at him, and to observe groups attempt to grapple with the horror — sure, the horror — of his monstrous, game-altering energy.
Notice: All statistics present by August 2, 2025.
