Kevin Sousa-Imagn Photographs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. broke off contract talks with the Blue Jays on February 17. It didn’t appear to be there was any animus between the 2 sides on the timehowever the four-time All-Star didn’t wish to distract himself throughout his stroll 12 months by negotiating all season lengthy. The deadline was arbitrary, however nonetheless immovable. The Blue Jays examined Guerrero’s resolve with a renewed supply on Opening Dayhowever he held agency.
Then he modified his thoughts. I attempt to keep away from the impulse to inform baseball gamers what to do with their careers, however I’ll say this: $500 million is a extremely, actually good purpose to desert one’s earlier place.
Guerrero’s $500 million contract extension with the Blue Jays begins subsequent 12 months, runs for 14 years, and comprises a full no-trade clause however no opt-outs. The intention, then, is to maintain Guerrero in Toronto for the remainder of his profession.
By the termination of the contract in 2039, Guerrero shall be 40 years outdated, and nearly actually may have demolished each franchise document. It’s a reasonably younger workforce, however Toronto has additionally had a behavior of hanging onto franchise icons for less than a part of their careers; simply 12 gamers have appeared in 10 or extra seasons for the Blue Jays. Dave Stieb holds the document for many seasons with the Jays with 15; Guerrero may have 21 if he performs out his contract.
Along with his extension nonetheless a full season away, Guerrero is the lively Blue Jays chief in video games performed (829), hits (915), plate appearances (3,585), and residential runs (160). He’s greater than midway to the late Tony Fernandez’s membership document within the first two classes (1,450 video games, 1,583 hits), and Carlos Delgado’s document (6,018 PA) within the third. As for residence runs, Vladito in all probability shall be midway to the membership document (336, additionally held by Delgado) by the tip of the month.
The Blue Jays presently have one retired quantity: 32, in honor of Roy Halladay. Guerrero’s contract is a down fee (and an enormous one, if we observe the metaphor) on placing no. 27 up on the wall sometime as properly.
When it appeared like Vladito was going to take his free company case to market, I wrote in regards to the paradox that made his worth so troublesome to pin down. On one hand, he’s 26 — and simply turned 26 — and a middle-of-the-order bat with MVP upside. On the opposite, regardless of his sturdiness (Guerrero’s missed simply 12 video games previously 5 seasons), his relative lack of athleticism makes it troublesome to mission the subsequent decade of his profession with a lot confidence. Most mid-20s free brokers who signal these super-long contracts — Alex Rodriguez, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Corey Seager — did so with an eventual slide down the defensive spectrum priced into the equation.
For instance: Harper was a proper fielder when he signed his 13-year contract with the Phillies in 2019. In actual fact, he’d made 59 begins in heart subject for the Nationals in his stroll 12 months. Accidents compelled Harper right into a full-time DH position for a few 12 months’s price of video games throughout 2022 and 2023. Now, at 32 and midway by means of the contract, Harper’s a full-time first baseman and has developed into a reasonably good defender there.
Guerrero was a full-time first baseman and DH, and never an excellent defender on the chilly nook, at 21. I believe that by the point this contract is over, Vladito would possibly nonetheless personal a primary baseman’s mitt, however he received’t know the place it’s on any given day on the ballpark.
Briefly, I’ll repeat what I wrote two months in the past: Is Guerrero extra Juan Soto or extra Pete Alonso?
The Jays are betting the previous. This $500 million contract comprises no deferred cash — apparently a serious sticking level in earlier rounds of negotiation — and is subsequently the second-richest contract in baseball historical past when it comes to real-world worth.
This can be a ludicrous amount of cash. It dwarfs the petty low-nine-figure deal Jackson Merrill signed final week, among the many Nice Extension Craze of 2025.
Having already laid out the professionals and cons of Guerrero as a free agent, and having already learn Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS-informed tackle Guerrero’s worth, which ran every week later, I don’t wish to spend an excessive amount of time re-surveying a panorama that hasn’t modified in every week and a half of video games.
As an alternative, I wish to tie Guerrero’s extension again to those Merrill and Kristian Campbell signed final week. When a top-10 international prospect reaches the majors at an age when most individuals are enjoying Beerio Kart till 4 AM, the usual process is for the workforce to lock him as much as a long-term contract that eats up a pair free agent years.
Why didn’t Vladito signal a contract like that? Effectively, if Vladimir Guerrero Mr. had been a cab driver or a fisherman, his son in all probability would’ve been shocked by the concept of constructing $60 million or $135 million within the first half of his profession. As an alternative, Guerrero père was himself a Corridor of Fame ballplayer, who made $125 million in wage — and that is in early 2000s cash — over a 16-year massive league profession. The Guerreros wouldn’t be awed by the monetary largesse that made Merrill a Padre for the subsequent decade and wish to keep in San Diego for all times.
Furthermore, Guerrero fils cashed in massive, and early, by enjoying the market straight. At 16, he signed with the Blue Jays for $3.9 million, the fourth-largest bonus in his class. He was within the majors inside 4 years, and by his age-23 season he was into arbitration, the place he made $70.8 million over his closing 4 years of workforce management.
Briefly, this can be a man who can afford to remain on the roulette desk for one more spin, quite than cashing out and going residence early. Most equivalently gifted gamers — few although they could be, there are sufficient to deduce a normal pattern — are content material to accept generational monetary consolation, quite than sticking it out to chase each final greenback.
One aspect impact of the extension pattern is the dilution of the free agent pool. Ideally, if the Blue Jays had $500 million to spend on a famous person, they usually had considerations about Guerrero’s athleticism or his groundball charge or his consistency, they may search the free marketplace for one other hitter who may put up a 160 wRC+ or higher.
The factor is: The place are you going to seek out one? Wanting on the different standout hitters from the 2019 rookie class, Jordan Alvarez and Fernando tate Jr. each signed massive pre-arbitration extensions. So did Ronald Acuña Jr.who would possibly in any other case be hitting the market round now.
Truly, let’s simply lay all of it on the market. Listed below are, let’s say, a lot of the lively place gamers and beginning pitchers who had between 5 and 6 years of service time on Opening Day. I drew an arbitrary line for high quality someplace between Lane Thomas and Harrison Bader. You’re welcome to quibble, however I hope we are able to all agree that if the Jays had let Guerrero stroll and supplied, like, Brendan Rodgers as an alternative, there would’ve been civil unrest all through Ontario.
This Might Have Been the 2026 Free Agent Class
Place Gamers
2024
Profession
Participant
Staff
Age
FA Yr
G
WAR
wRC+
G
WAR
wRC+
Austin Riley
ATL
28
2034
110
2.4
116
728
18.5
123
Bo bichette
TOR
27
2026
81
0.3
71
619
16.5
119
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
30
2032
156
2.1
118
804
17.1
119
Cedric Mullins
Bal 30 2026 147 2.3 105 702 14.7 108 Fernando Sama Jr. SDP 26 2035 102 3.2 135 526 21.0 139
Jake Cronenworth
SDP
31
2031
155
2.1
105
656
12.4
108
Josh Naylor
CLE
28
2026
152
2.3
118
608
7.0
112
Kyle Tucker
New 28726 78 4.2 180 645 22.2 141
LaMonte Wade Jr.
SFG
31
2026
117
1.3
119
489
4.8
112
Lane Thomas
2TM
29
2026
130
1.4
99
569
7.1
102
Luis ARCEERZ
2TM 28 2026 150 1.1 109 696 10.8 119
Luis Robert Jr.
CHW
27
2028
100
0.5
84
476
12.2
114
Mike Yastrzemski
SFG
34
2026
140
1.6
106
702
11.6
113
Nico Hoerner
CHC
28
2027
151
4.0
103
557
15.8
103
Sean Murphy
ATL 30 2030 72 0.8 78 510 16.2 114 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Tor 26 2040 159 5.4 165 829 17.0 137
Will Smith
LAD
30
2034
128
2.7
111
622
19.2
126
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
28
2029
147
5.3
168
638
23.1
165
Participant
Staff
Age
FA Yr
IP
WAR
ERA
IP
WAR
ERA
Dylan Stop
SDP
29
2026
189 1/3
4.8
3.47
858
18.0
3.74
Logan Webb
SFG
28
2029
204 2/3
4.4
3.47
867 1/3
19.1
3.41
Michael King
SDP
30
2026
173 2/3
3.9
2.95
429
8.8
3.21
Mitch Keller
PIT
29
2029
178
2.2
4.25
711 1/3
9.9
4.63
Ranger Suárez
PHI
29
2026
150 2/3
3.5
3.46
604 2/3
11.4
3.42
Zac Gallen
ARI
29
2026
148
2.8
3.65
826
16.9
3.29
We’ve acquired 24 gamers right here who can be first-time free brokers after this season primarily based on service time alone. Guerrero is the youngest participant on this group, however he’s not the perfect. If these 24 gamers have been in a draft for a possible franchise participant, there’s nearly no likelihood Guerrero would go within the high three, and a non-zero likelihood he falls out of the highest 10.
Guerrero is ninth on this listing in profession WAR; I believe this undersells the height worth of his bat fairly a bit (he was no. 1 in WAR final 12 months), however let’s go along with that as a baseline. Of the eight gamers forward of Guerrero in profession WAR, six are below workforce management by means of at the very least 2028. In different phrases: The cream of the 2026 free company class has already been skimmed off the highest.
Let’s put aside all that sentimental number-retiring stuff for a second, the place the child who was born in Montreal and signed with the Jays at 16 finally ends up spending his entire profession in Toronto and rewriting the document guide. That’s an awesome story, and a greater purpose to signal a participant than lots of people acknowledge, nevertheless it doesn’t present up within the standings.
As an alternative, let’s concentrate on the proximate on-field concern: Toronto wants any individual who can anchor the lineup for the subsequent 5 years and has cash to spend to accumulate one. Let’s say the Blue Jays determined Guerrero was not, within the phrases of the poet, that any individual. In every of the previous three offseasons, there was a generational irreplaceable hitter out there in free company: Aaron Decidethen Shohei Ohtanithen Soto.
There isn’t actually a man like that this 12 months. What’s there’s Kyle Tucker, who’s superior, and I’d commerce Vladito straight as much as get him with out hesitation. However that’s it. There’s no backup plan. And whereas the Blue Jays have been in on a number of top-tier free brokers within the 2020s, they’ve by no means landed the most important fish within the pond. Having lived by means of the Ohtani saga two offseasons in the past — possibly probably the most excruciating free company near-miss in baseball historical past, all issues thought of — you’d perceive the Blue Jays not desirous to take that danger once more.
So what are they left with? Effectively, an overpay, in all probability, particularly as soon as you work within the final third or so of this contract. However possibly not by as a lot as “second-biggest contract in baseball historical past” would have you ever consider.
Let’s finish by going again to Dan’s article: If Guerrero places in one other season like final 12 months’s, even ZiPS — that cruel, pessimistic, mathematical curmudgeon — has a optimistic outlook.
“With a repeat of his 2024 season,” Dan wrote. “ZiPS is much more assured in Guerrero’s future, including sufficient to get to the $400 million mark over 9 years, with the remainder of his profession after that time tacking on one other $100 million.”
Below these circumstances, ZiPS would mission Guerrero to maintain posting wRC+ marks within the 140s and 150s by means of the tip of the last decade, and to hit .282/.363/.447 in 2034, his age-35 season. That may be an OPS+ of 126, which is healthier than what Alonso posted in both of the previous two seasons. Most hitters would kill for a decline part like that.
However most of all, that’s an issue for one more day. The Blue Jays locked up their greatest participant for the remainder of his profession. That’s an enormous optimistic, irrespective of the phrases. They will determine the remaining later.
