He has solely made two begins this season, however it’s unattainable to not be impressed. Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown 14 innings with out giving up a run. Certainly, he hasn’t thrown a lot as a single pitch with a runner in scoring place. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 14 to at least one. His groundball fee is 60%. He has allowed 30 batted balls and never one in every of them has been barreled. In response to Baseball Savant, the righty has thrown six distinct pitches at the least 10% of the time, and 5 of them have a optimistic run worth. All informed, his +9 pitching run worth is the very best within the sport. Two begins make for a tiny pattern measurement, however like I mentioned, it’s unattainable to not be impressed by what Schwellenbach has completed.
In fact, the 24-year-old is used to being spectacular. Earlier than the 2025 season started, he was mowing down opponents within the Grapefruit League, placing out 28 batters in 21 innings whereas pitching to a 3.00 ERA. Earlier than that, he was a breakout stud in his rookie season, placing up a 3.35 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, and a pair of.6 FanGraphs WAR over 21 begins. Earlier than that, he was a consensus top-five prospect in Atlanta’s system. Throughout 24 minor league begins at Single-A, Excessive-A, and Double-A from 2023-24, he threw 110 innings with a 2.21 ERA and three.01 FIP. He skipped Triple-A to make his huge league debut final Could and by no means appeared again.
With lower than one season of service time beneath his belt, Schwellenbach already finds himself a key member of the Braves’ rotation. Spencer Strider continues to be working his means again from elbow surgical procedure. Reynaldo López will miss many of the season. Chris Sale stays the ace of the employees, however he’s 36 years outdated, injury-prone, and has appeared unusually mortal to begin the yr. It stays unclear how a lot Atlanta will be capable of rely on high prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, former All-Star Bryce Elder, and 2024 breakout arm Grant Holmes. Having Schwellenbach to depend on each fifth sport will probably be essential because the Braves look to make up floor within the NL East following a 2-8 begin to the season.
As Schwellenbach continues to impress – and as Atlanta continues to be reminded of the significance of dependable, top-end beginning pitching – maybe it’s time for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to begin occupied with extending the right-hander. It might sound early to be speaking about an extension for Schwellenbach. Then once more, the Braves prolonged Strider shortly after his rookie season in 2022. At the moment, he had 20 huge league begins and 134 innings beneath his belt. Schwellenbach doesn’t have fairly as a lot MLB service time as Strider did when he signed his extension, however he has now thrown extra innings (137 2/3). In the meantime, Michael Harris II was simply 71 video games into his huge league profession when he signed an extension with Atlanta in August 2022. As a place participant, Harris shouldn’t be fairly as sturdy of a comp for Schwellenbach. Regardless, the important thing level is that this entrance workplace doesn’t have any qualms about extending gamers with restricted huge league service time. The truth is, that’s a part of the enchantment for the Braves, who additionally prolonged Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies fairly early on of their careers. The purpose of those extensions is to supply gifted younger gamers quick monetary safety in change for added years of staff management down the road. If Schwellenbach retains pitching this fashion, his asking worth is just going to climb, and the probabilities that he can be prepared to surrender any of his future free agent years will diminish.
With that mentioned, the Braves have awarded far fewer long-term extensions to pitchers than to place gamers. As an illustration, they notably didn’t lengthen two-time All-Star Max Fried, who left for the Yankees in free company this previous offseason. Relationship again to the 2006 season, the Braves have solely given out three assured multi-year extensions to beginning pitchers: Strider’s six-year, $75MM deal in 2022; Julio Teheran’s six-year, $32.4MM deal in 2014; and Tim Hudson’s three-year, $28MM deal in 2009. What’s extra, the Strider extension has not precisely gone based on plan to this point. Whereas he received 20 video games and earned Cy Younger votes in 2023, he has made simply two begins for the reason that starting of the 2024 season after damaging his UCL. It’s additionally price noting that the Braves have seen many younger pitchers get off to promising begins solely to fizzle out quickly after, whether or not attributable to harm or underperformance. That features arms like Ian Anderson, Michael Soroka, Kyle Wright, and Elder. Maybe all that can make them a bit extra cautious with regards to Schwellenbach.
As for what a Schwellenbach extension would possibly appear to be, we are able to flip to a number of latest comps. Since Strider inked his deal in October 2022, 4 extra starters with fewer than two years of service time have signed multi-year extensions. Schwellenbach can virtually absolutely ask for greater than Cristopher Sánchez’s four-year, $22.5MM assure, although he’s unlikely to command as a lot as Strider. The opposite three extensions – for Hunter Greene, Brayan Bello, and Brandon Pfaadt – had been all for someplace between $45MM and $55MM in assured cash over 5 or 6 years (with at the least one membership possibility). Schwellenbach has arguably had extra huge league success than any of these pitchers did after they signed their extensions. Nonetheless, he doesn’t have as a lot expertise as Pfaadt or Bello, nor did he ever have the prospect pedigree of Greene. Nonetheless, the preseason ZiPS, Steamerand Pecota projections envisioned Schwellenbach to be roughly as helpful, if no more so, than all three of these arms. With that in thoughts, a six-year deal (that will purchase out Schwellenbach’s first free agent season) with an AAV round $9MM and at the least one membership possibility can be a logical place to begin for negotiations.
Do MLBTR readers assume the Braves ought to provide Schwellenbach an extension? Maybe you assume Atlanta must act quick and lengthen him now earlier than his star shoots any increased. Or maybe you assume the Braves can be smarter to attend till the younger right-hander has confirmed himself over a bigger pattern of begins. Have your say in the ballot beneath:
Picture courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Pictures
