12:01
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people!
12:01
Jay Jaffe: After spending many of the previous 24 hours in mattress with a low-grade fever and abdomen bug, I’ve returned to the land of the residing
12:03
Phil: There’s been plenty of justified warning tempering expectations about Trevor Story. Can we lastly begin to really feel like, sure, the Crimson Sox have their shortstop in the end?
12:04
Jay Jaffe: He’s off to an excellent begin, and it’s definitely good to see. I don’t count on him to remain this scorching however I believe he could be a power in that lineup if he stays wholesome. The factor is, well being is a talent, and he’s had a tough time staying accessible. Fingers crossed he can accomplish that
12:05
Idiotic Failson: Is Semien cooked? He’s been terrible.
12:06
Jay Jaffe: Good query. He’s not hitting the ball appreciably worse than final 12 months. I believe he could be price a better look in an article. I’m curious as to what’s happening as properly
12:07
not the lunch man: Alcantara for Alcantara. Who says no/what else must be within the deal?
12:09
Jay Jaffe: Sandy A. has been fairly unhealthy up to now since getting back from TJ surgical procedure, excessive stroll price, low chase. I’m unsure I’d quit a lot for him proper now.
12:10
Weird1@Portland: Will Bellinger be a 20-20 man with a .250 BA?
12:12
Jay Jaffe: he’s solely stolen 20 bases as soon as, so I’d wager towards that. He’s off to a tough begin with the Yankees, hitting the ball more durable however strikeout price approach up. Undecided but what’s happening there
12:12
Jazzy Jaffe: In case you began on 1B, and Chandler Simpson began at dwelling, do you suppose you can win a foot race to 2B?
12:13
Jay Jaffe: I believe I may try this, if I used to be warmed up, however I’d want every week of icing my hamstrings and quads
12:14
Jay Jaffe: Talking of which, obliquely, I obtained round to streaming Eephus the opposite night time. Offbeat, entertaining and meandering film about baseball and the passage of time. Some nice performances together with Invoice Lee popping out of the woods to throw an inning
12:14
Jay Jaffe: yesterday once I was sick I saved considering of the sore-kneed catcher moaning, “I should be put down.”
12:15
Bobby: Clearly it’s nonetheless very early in Elly De La Cruz’s profession. However at what level would it not be legitimate to actually start questioning if he’ll ever be an elite hitter?
12:16
Jay Jaffe: it’s legitimate. he’s gotta reduce down on the swing-and-miss. he hits the ball onerous sufficient and is as entertaining as any participant within the sport, however that 33% strikeout price makes it onerous to place up large numbers
12:16
Jay Jaffe: I’d pay cash to look at him leg out a triple although
12:16
Tacoby Bellsbury: Have you ever learn any of Laurila’s interview lookbacks at previous scouting studies? In that case, what have a few of your takeaways been?
12:18
Jay Jaffe: The Cody Bellinger one I appreciated so much as properly. It’s very fascinating to see these guys addressing assessments of their strengths and weaknesses, figuring out that they panned out the place so many others of comparable talent could not have achieved so.
12:18
Rick: Given it’s so early within the season, what are key indicators that you just take a look at when it comes to figuring out how hitter are performing, we dont normally have stable pattern sizes till a few months into the season however how can we establish scorching bats or guys firing up?
12:21
Jay Jaffe: The primary issues I take a look at, particularly for gamers who’re struggling, are swing and chase charges — in the event that they’re out of whack with a man’s observe document, he could also be urgent. then I take a look at the statcast numbers, particularly as soon as we get to 60 BBE, the place they begin to stabilize — are his precise numbers consistent with his anticipated ones?
12:22
Johnny5Alive: up to now, mets appear to have made the best name re: alonso, however is he pricing himself out of one other contract with them? how a lot has this begin helped his subsequent contract?
12:24
Jay Jaffe: he’s off to an excellent begin nevertheless it’s early. I’m very intrigued by his large drop in Okay% and his spike in exit velocity, however I wish to see the extent to which these maintain up when he’s now not slugging .695.
12:25
Jay Jaffe: As for whether or not he’s pricing himself out of the Mets, I believe if he has an enormous season, it’s gonna be very robust for Uncle Stevie to not open his checkbook — this can be a fan favourite and a workforce very a lot in win-now mode
12:26
Yolmer Sanchez: The Whitesox could have misplaced Martin Perez for almost all of the season. Who on the earth can they use to eat innings? Will they throw one other teen into the hearth to see what they’ve obtained? Or do they go forward and choose somebody up like Triston McKenzie (regardless of the yips)?
12:26
Jay Jaffe: In all probability time to start the thawing of Early Wynn
12:27
Jay Jaffe: that’s a bummer about Perez, I didn’t see that he was so rapidly moved to the 60-day IL. By no means a great signal.
the White Sox have little to lose by attempting to see if they’ll repair McKenzie however I don’t know that they’ve any further perception in terms of coping with a participant going by what he’s going by. However they’re able the place they completely want so as to add expertise to their system by any means they’ll so it may’t damage to take a shot
12:29
Tim: Is it truthful to surprise if Aaron Nola is damage? BABIP and LOB counsel he’s been unfortunate, Velo and Stuff+ say he’s not so good as final 12 months (a minimum of).
12:33
Jay Jaffe: I imagine that Davy Andrews, the latest addition to our full-time roster, is engaged on a chunk about Nola. I’m seeing the identical issues you might be — the velo and stuff are down. he’s nonetheless getting related chase and swing-and-miss charges so possibly it’s only a mechanical rut and never an harm however.. he’s obtained a lotta mileage on him
12:34
Jay Jaffe: Lunch has arrived. I had solely about 12 ounces of Lipton hen noodle soup and half a bagel yesterday so I’m ravenously hungry
12:35
Jay Jaffe: daring transfer to get again on the horse with a burrito however I believe it’s a great signal I’m that bold
12:40
Gene Lamont: Clay Holmes has been comparatively stable so far, clearly not as stable as Seth Lugo was to begin final 12 months. Do you suppose Holmes could have Lugo-like success because the 12 months goes on or do you suppose he’ll simply keep on the stage he’s presently at?
12:44
Jay Jaffe: We’re nonetheless fairly early within the Holmes-as-starter experiment however I like what I’m seeing. Each the four-seamer and changeup have been efficient additions to his arsenal
12:44
Jay Jaffe: i don’t know that he may be pretty much as good as Lugo has grow to be however I’m not ruling it out
12:44
buffy, the umpire slayer: We’re about 30 days into the season. In deciding on substitute gamers, how a lot weight ought to ROS projections be in comparison with what a participant has really produced in these 30 days. Joc Pederson and Ben Rice are examples (each methods) of gamers the place the attention take a look at appears to override the numerical projections.
12:50
Jay Jaffe: projections are necessary as a result of they mirror a man’s observe document whereas incorporating age-based adjustments, however as we’ve seen again and again, participant growth has grow to be extra malleable as gamers do issues like overhaul their swings or engineer pitches so as to add to their arsenals. Rice has added a ton of bat pace and is hitting the ball a lot more durable so I believe we have to mentally alter our expectations.
I’m unsure what’s going on with Joc. I count on he’ll snap ou of it however I’m wondering if he’s absolutely wholesome.
12:52
Jordan: What can the Pirates do to salvage the 2024-26 seasons?
12:52
Jay Jaffe: Promote the workforce
12:55
Jay Jaffe: Nothing is ever going to vary for the Pirates as long as Bob Nutting is the proprietor. We’re 18 years into this, and outdoors of a short flash of success when the celebrities aligned from 2013–15, it’s been the identical previous story. They only don’t add sufficient expertise to that group as a result of they don’t spend.
12:55
Mr. Burrito: I’m not whining, I swear. I get that any Dodgers issues, this 12 months, are first-world points. However I’m getting anxious about Muncy and Pages more and more seems to be like a 4th outfielder. Do they want one other bat? And, if that’s the case, ought to or not it’s Luis Robert Jr.
12:59
Jay Jaffe: I’ve been slightly skeptical about Pages given his contact points, and boy howdy have these resurfaced. He could very properly be a 4th outfielder.Undecided but what’s happening with Muncy however we’ve seen him undergo funks earlier than and he all the time appears to seek out his approach out. Possibly the opposite Max Muncy is stealing his mojo.
Robert has been so unhealthy for the previous year-plus, I wouldn’t contact him with a 40-foot pole
1:00
Massive Jim: Jay – thanks for taking the time as we speak and glad you’re feeling higher (pre-burrito).
1:00
Jay Jaffe: thanks, it’s good to be again within the land of the upright
1:00
Massive Jim: What can we feasibly count on from Lance McCullers as soon as he’s again in motion? Do you suppose that he finally strikes to excessive leverage reduction if he’s efficient (given his prolonged harm historical past)?
1:02
Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose anyone actually is aware of — this can be a man who’s made eight begins because the 2021 season and who has solely as soon as made greater than 22 begins. I’m unsure that shorter however extra frequent bursts of motion is the reply, however possibly that’s what it should take
1:03
md: What are your ideas on the (largely unhinged fan) scuttlebutt of attempting to get Muncy outta there for Arenado?Friedman has type of been on document saying he doesn’t like large midseason trades like that, proper?
1:06
Jay Jaffe: I’m fairly lukewarm on Arenado at this stage, a minimum of when it comes to giving up vital expertise for him. By all proof he’s a league-average bat with a glove that’s nonetheless above common however now not elite. That’s helpful however not someone I wanna pay $25–30M per 12 months for
1:07
Sevvy: What share would you set your confidence at for Chandler Simpson with the ability to deal with main league pitchers? He hardly ever struck out and walked at an honest clip within the minors. I don’t get why so many suppose that wouldn’t switch properly along with his pace.
1:09
Jay Jaffe: I believe the priority is that he’s obtained so little energy that there’s little motive for pitchers to not problem him and he finally ends up with a Juan Pierre-type profile.
1:09
Allison: Is Luis Robert overrated or simply mentally achieved on a horrible workforce?
1:10
Jay Jaffe: That’s an excellent query. I wouldn’t low cost the impact of being surrounded by a depressing scenario however… even when that’s the case it doesn’t communicate properly of the participant as a result of there are lots who can block that out and nonetheless carry out properly. What I do suppose is extra seemingly is that White Sox are so behind the instances that he’s not getting the right intel for the way he’s being pitched and learn how to alter.
1:11
Mo’s bowtie: No matter “on-field efficiency” and all that, what do you suppose the percentages are of Bloom deciding on a brand new supervisor in Stl for 2026? How necessary is that to a “new” GM?
1:11
Jay Jaffe: I’ve been fairly unimpressed by Marmol… and, frankly, each Cardinals supervisor since La Russa. If I’m Bloom I desire a recent begin with a brand new voice within the dugout.
1:12
Unhappy O’s Fan: Hey Jay, random concept and I do know fangraphs isnt a fantasy baseball web site, however i feel it will be tremendous cool to have some type of “save” or “bookmark” on participant pages. As a fantasy participant i do most of my prospect analysis right here, and particularly when i learn an article or take a look at a participant web page for some fascinating younger DSL man it will be nice to have the option come again to that record of men on my fangraphs profile so i dont lose observe of them down the highway
1:12
Jay Jaffe: not a foul concept. You are able to do issues like make a customized participant record of your fantasy workforce to be able to pull up that report and see at a look how your guys are doing
1:13
For the birds: Ideas on the orioles pitching scenario? Like I get that Morton being their #1 wasn’t a part of the plan however he was nonetheless their #3 which isn’t significantly better
1:18
Jay Jaffe: To date, I’m fairly underwhelmed by Elias’ means to keep up a contender and don’t suppose a lot of the brand new possession, which needs to be locking up these younger studs like Adley and Gunnar.
The Orioles didn’t do practically sufficient to fortify a rotation that was fairly mediocre apart from Burnes (who departed) and Grayson Rodriguez (who had harm points final 12 months and appears to be even worse off now). Morton is a nice #4 but when he’s nearer to the entrance of your rotation, you’ve obtained points.
1:19
ghost of Vin Scully: Am I proper to be upset in Roki Sasaki’s efficiency to this point and even his eventual ceiling? Champagne issues and adjustment interval however, I can’t assist however suppose he wants one other pitch. Fastball not producing whiffs
1:23
Jay Jaffe: There’s clearly plenty of hype surrounding him and relative to that, he’s been a disappointment however I believe it’s necessary to keep in mind that he’s not a completed product. He’s 23, has a high-velo fastball and a nasty-as-hell splitter, however he could also be adjusting to the completely different baseball in addition to a special tradition. I agree that he in all probability wants one other pitch… and higher command.
1:23
Lomster: Concerning your piece concerning the Twins. One other instance of their fumbling/bumbling: Baily Ober’s disastrous begin of March 30. Two days prior he was sick in mattress and the day earlier than the beginning he had an IV. If Ober had a desk job I may perceive “going to again to work” the subsequent day. However he’s a significant league pitcher the place the margins for achievement are already skinny when 100% wholesome, particularly in Ober’s scenario wherein this season there have been issues about his declining velo to start with. No matter occurred to placing your gamers in one of the best place to succeed? This was the exact opposite.
1:25
Jay Jaffe: there’s plenty of machismo and pleasure concerned in terms of participant well being. I don’t suppose that is particular to the Twins, however yeah I in all probability would have pushed him again within the rotation even when he declared he was good to go.
1:25
Visitor: It appears to me that any nice younger pitcher has considerably decrease HOF odds than an excellent younger place participant of roughly the identical age/expertise/expertise simply on account of pitcher accidents. Agree? To attract out the comparability: Skenes HOF odds? Elly HOF odds?
1:27
Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I’d agree. We simply aren’t seeing longevity out of pitchers the way in which we used to on account of accidents and — let’s face it — cash. Not everyone goes to place themselves by one other surgical procedure/rehab cycle in the event that they’re sitting on lots of of hundreds of thousands of {dollars}. Makes you admire what Kershaw has gone by the previous couple of years at the same time as he’s sealed the deal concerning Cooperstown.
1:28
Jay Jaffe: OK people, gonna name it right here since I’m not fairly 100% myself. Thanks a lot for stopping by!
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior author for FanGraphs, the writer of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Rating) metric for Corridor of Fame evaluation. He based the Futility Infielder web site (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports activities Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring visitor on MLB Community and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Corridor of Fame voter since 2021. Observe him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
