Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports activities
I’ve gotten prematurely enthusiastic about Nick Lodolo earlier than. This isn’t that. I’ve consulted my doctor and I’m engaged on the issue. However he’s such a bizarre pitcher I can’t utterly overlook him.
What’s he to date? Properly, consider it or not, El Cóndor del Río Ohio is just not strolling anybody. Possibly that’ll change when he begins towards the Mariners tonight, however by way of his first three begins, Lodolo has confronted 71 batters and walked just one. And whereas he suffers the identical predilection for hitting batters that plagues many long-levered sidearmers, Lodolo has plunked only one opponent in 2025.
Final season, Lodolo was fairly unremarkable when it comes to command and management. Out of 126 pitchers with 100 or extra innings pitched, Lodolo had the 57th-highest stroll charge. He was 57th in Zone%, and 111th in Location+. PitchingBot was a bit nicer to the large lefty, giving him a 52, which was eightieth amongst 100-inning pitchers.
This yr, Lodolo is throwing extra strikes: He’s as much as twenty eighth out of 85 certified starters in Zone%. And whereas opponents are swinging extra at pitches within the zone, they’re hitting about 100 factors worse on these pitches than they did final yr.
Nick Lodolo Is in Command
Yr
BB%
Zone%
Location+
Z-Swing%
In-Zone AVG
2024
7.5
51.9
97
61.0
.284
2025
1.4
54.9
112
70.7
.178
The small-sample crimson flags are current (sub-.200 BABIP, decrease whiff charge, related chase charge regardless of a lot larger Z-Swing%), however Lodolo’s finished this towards fairly good competitors. Certainly one of his begins got here towards Milwaukee, which, eh, no matter. However he’s now confronted a red-hot Giants crew twice and shut them down each occasions. Popping out of the weekend, San Francisco has scored two runs in 12 innings off Lodolo and 73 runs in 120 1/3 innings off all different pitchers.
For these of you who didn’t click on by way of to the article I linked within the first graf, to start with: Disgrace on you. However except you’re an NL Central fan, you may not be intimately acquainted with the Reds left-hander. Wherein case, you’re confused by my try to stay him a sobriquet like “El Cóndor.”
Lodolo is 6-foot-6, with arms lengthy sufficient to embrace the moon, and he throws from one of many lowest arm angles you’ll see from a beginning pitcher. The one two left-handed starters, or starter-adjacent-type guys, who throw from a wider horizontal launch level are Chris Sale and Ryan Yarbrough. And each Sale and Yarbrough begin with their shoulder a great six inches farther from their middle of mass than Lodolo does.
In case you have even a passing familiarity with Sale, or with Randy Johnsonyou already know {that a} pitcher with an arm angle this excessive seemingly releases the ball behind a same-handed batter. See poor Sal Frelick within the video above; if it appears to be like like he thinks the ball goes to hit him, that’s as a result of if Lodolo threw a pitch straight ahead from that launch level, it could.
That excessive angle implies that for all sensible functions, Lodolo pitches sideways. The whole lot he throws spins in a special route than you’d count on from a lefty. As an example, the backspin that provides a four-seam fastball rise really does nothing of the type from Lodolo’s arm angle. Actually, it pulls the pitch exhausting left. In consequence, Lodolo’s fastball has two inches extra induced horizontal break than some other four-seamer in baseball, however it additionally drops precipitously.
Really, let’s examine Lodolo to 2 different actually good left-handed pitchers who usually inhabit the Jack Skellington physique kind: Max Fried and Blake Snell. Each Fried and Snell throw from both a excessive three-quarters angle or excessive, relying on the place you draw the road, and have a look at the distinction in spin route on the three pitch sorts all three pitchers throw.
Spin Isn’t Only a Extremely Underrated Lifehouse Track
Pitcher
Arm Angle
FF Spin Path
CH Spin Path
CU Spin Path
Nick Lodolo
15°
9:45
9:30
3:15
Blake Snell
55°
11:15
10:15
4:30
Max Fried
47°
11:30
10:30
5:00
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
The impact is excessive. Lodolo will get — and this isn’t an exaggeration — over 18 inches extra arm-side run on his four-seamer than Fried does. On the identical time, Fried will get — likewise, not an exaggeration — over 18 inches extra IVB on his curveball.
My favourite factor about Lodolo’s sizzling begin, nonetheless, is what occurs when the ball doesn’t spin very a lot.
Final yr, Lodolo’s changeup was fairly unremarkable. Opponents hit .232 and slugged .390 off it, and Baseball Savant had the pitch as a run under league common. This yr, he’s taken about 10% of the spin — 200 rpm, give or take — off the pitch. The motion is kind of the identical because it was final yr, and it hasn’t changed into a monster swing-and-miss pitch. He’s thrown 59 of them thus far this yr, producing a whiff charge of 18.9%.
Against this, 24 of Lodolo’s changeups have been put in play, together with one sacrifice bunt. And I’m a bit aggravated, to be trustworthy, as a result of we virtually had a state of affairs the place Lodolo’s 24 changeups in play resulted in 24 outs: one single, one double play, and 22 discipline outs. Sadly, there’s an error sprinkled in there, which I think about annoys Lodolo for causes aside from misplaced symmetry.
My man, you’ve got to maintain your eye on the ball.
That error is what it’s; hitters can get wooden on Lodolo’s changeup fairly simply, however they’re having a satan of a time hitting it exhausting. Of these 24 balls in play, 13 got here off the bat at lower than 85 mph. Solely three got here with an xBA over .300. Baseball hasn’t seen weak contact like this since Dermot Mulroney’s try to remain in contact together with his son in Angels within the Outfield.
It’s attention-grabbing that opponents are hitting the stuffing out of Lodolo’s four-seamer, however can’t sq. up a pitch with nearly equivalent horizontal motion and never that massive of a velocity unfold.
You Gotta Hold ‘Em Separated
Pitch Sort
xBA
H-Motion (in)
V-Motion (in)
Avg. Velo
Max Velo
Min. Velo
Spin Price
Fastball
.445
18.1 ARM
9.0
93.2
95.0
91.6
2,267
Sinker
.258
18.9 ARM
5.8
93.3
94.7
91.5
2,297
Changeup
.176
18.2 ARM
0.8
87.0
88.1
85.3
1,801
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
If that is something aside from small-sample wonkiness, my working principle is that this: Whereas the speed distinction between Lodolo’s fastballs and his changeup is modest, his consistency of velocity inside the pitch kind is great. If a hitter comes out of his footwear swinging at what he thinks is a fastball, however it’s a changeup, he’s not going to overlook it, however he’s going to get on high of the ball for a weak grounder. Which is what we’re seeing right here. And since Lodolo’s changeup is completely within the 85-to-88 mph vary, there’s no likelihood of the hitter squaring it up accidentally.
Anyway, questions persist about America’s most sideways beginning pitcher, however he’s been distinctive by way of three begins. Whether or not these good points are actual, and in that case, whether or not they persist stays to be seen.
