Jim Cowsert-Imagn Photographs
By the primary 5 weeks of the 2025 season, the very best you may say about Mike Trout was that he was not less than wholesome sufficient to play each day and was hitting plenty of residence runs. Nonetheless, the 33-year-old slugger departed Wednesday’s sport in opposition to the Mariners with soreness in his surgically repaired left knee following a dash to first base, and whereas he remained on the lively roster for Thursday’s sport, afterwards, the Angels positioned him on the injured checklist with a bone bruise within the knee. That’s not a worst-case state of affairs, however it’s irritating information on prime of what’s already been a gradual begin.
Trout entered this season with extra query marks hanging over his head than at any level in his 15-year profession. After taking part in simply 82 video games in 2023 because of a fractured hamate bone — together with only one after July 3 — he was restricted to 29 video games final 12 months because of a torn meniscus in his left knee. He underwent surgical procedure, however as an alternative of the everyday four-to-six week timetable, he wanted almost three months earlier than starting a rehab stint, after which performed simply two innings for Triple-A Salt Lake Metropolis earlier than exiting because of discomfort in the identical knee. After he flew again to Anaheim for additional analysis, he was identified with one other meniscus tear, requiring season-ending surgical procedure.
Upon reporting to the Angels’ spring coaching facility in Tempe, Arizona in February, Trout met with normal supervisor Perry Minasian and supervisor Ron Washington, and collectively they determined that the very best plan of action could be to maneuver the 11-time All-Star heart fielder to proper subject with a view to save his physique some put on and tear. Up till Wednesday, the plan appeared to be working; he’d performed all 29 of the Angels’ video games (matching final 12 months’s complete) with seven begins at DH interspersed along with his appearances in proper subject. His .179/.264/.462 batting line, 96 wRC+, and 0.1 WAR aren’t something to jot down residence about, however he’s been hitting the ball laborious on contact. His 9 homers are sufficient to tie him for third within the American League alongside Tyler Soderstrom, Spencer Torkelsonand teammate Logan o’hoppebehind solely Aaron Choose and Cal Raleigh.
Which brings us to Wednesday’s sport in opposition to the Mariners in Seattle. Within the first inning, Trout blooped a excessive sinker from Emerson Hancock into left subject for a single, and made it so far as third base earlier than the inning ended. Within the third, he hit a gradual curler to second base and turned on the jets in an effort to achieve safely. In accordance with Statcast, his dash was at 29.7 ft per second, his quickest of the season, however he was out by half a step nonetheless. After returning to proper subject within the backside of the third, he yielded to pinch-hitter I adell with two outs within the fourth.
Trout defined after the sport that whereas he felt superb after his sprint to first, his left knee started to really feel “bizarre” when he returned to proper subject. “After I began jogging within the outfield a little bit bit, I began feeling it a little bit extra. Needed to be sensible about it,” he stated. “Hopefully, it’s just a bit scar tissue breaking apart,” he later added. The Angels eliminated him from the sport, Trout was checked out by a physician, and he iced his knee and acquired pulsed electromagnetic subject remedy.
Trout was not within the lineup for Thursday’s sport in opposition to the Tigers, however he remained on the lively roster, with Washington telling the media he was nonetheless being evaluated however was in good spirits. After the workforce’s 10-4 loss to Detroit, the supervisor introduced that the workforce was inserting Trout on the injured checklist. “He has a bone bruise, so we’re going to place him on the IL,” stated Washington. “It’s not vital. However he wants relaxation.”
Whereas the testing didn’t reveal structural injury, a bone bruise isn’t nice information, notably because it’s been preceded by a lack of cartilage within the joint through his meniscectomies. Usually, a scarcity of cartilage to cushion the joint raises the potential for bone-on-bone grinding, which may be one explanation for a bone bruise, notably when there’s no main trauma concerned. Given not less than one description of a “jammed” knee, Trout’s left knee might have incurred sufficient drive with the lunge on his last step to first base to have brought about the bruise, however that it was sufficient to ship him to the IL testifies to the delicate nature of the joint.
Per the Baseball Prospectus Restoration Dashboard5 place gamers have hit the IL with bone bruises in a knee since 2016, with absences starting from 16 days to just about 4 months:
Bone Bruises in Knees, Place Gamers
Efficient Date
Participant
Damage Kind
Ultimate Damage Description
Days on IL
6/6/17
Devon Travis
Contusion
Proper knee bone bruise
117
8/9/17
Johan Camargo
Contusion
Proper knee bone bruise
27
3/29/21
Kyle Lewis
Contusion
Knee bone bruise
22
6/23/24
Starling Marte
Contusion
Knee bone bruise
56
7/5/24
Jason Heyward
Contusion
Knee bone bruise
16
SOURCE: Baseball Prospectus Restoration Dashboard
That’s a blended bag that features a brief outage for a participant who beforehand had meniscus surgical procedure (Lewis) and an extended one for a participant who (to the very best of our information) has by no means had knee surgical procedure (Marte).
As Trout cools his knee and his heels on the IL, it’s price a take a look at his wrestle to remain above alternative stage. Whereas he was hardly in classic type final 12 months, his .220/.325/.541 line translated to a 139 wRC+; his 10 homers in 29 video games put him on tempo for 56, whereas his 1.0 WAR put him on tempo for five.6. He’s been a lot much less productive this 12 months, and the massive factor that stands out to date is his 29.8% strikeout fee. From 2012–19, he struck out simply 21.2% of the time, and solely as soon as (in 2014) did he have a strikeout fee greater than two share factors above that (26.1%). As his taking part in time has gotten extra sporadic because of accidents, his strikeout fee has fluctuated extra; from 2020-24, he struck out 26.7% of the time, with a excessive of 28.7% in his 82-game ’23 season and a low of 21.4% final 12 months.
Given the pattern sizes in play, it’s notably useful to take a look at a rolling fee graph to search out precedents for efficiency. Right here’s one with Trout’s strikeout fee in addition to his chase and swinging strike charges. All of those are interconnected, and all are increased than the seasonal charges we’ve seen earlier than. He’s at the moment chasing 25.5% of pitches outdoors the zone, almost a six-point enhance from final 12 months and his highest mark since his cup of espresso in 2011, and he’s swung and missed on 12.4% of his pitches, up over 5 factors from final 12 months, and a couple of level above his 2021–23 fee (11.3%):
What this graph illustrates is that Trout had such a stretch for much longer than this in 2022, which proper now appears to be like like The Final Actual Mike Trout Season, a 119-game marketing campaign through which he hit .283/.369/.630 (176 wRC+) with 40 homers and 6.0 WAR however missed 5 weeks because of again irritation attributable to T5 costovertebral dysfunction. The mid-2022 peak of these rolling charges kind of coincides with the purpose at which he went on the injured checklist.
A take a look at Trout’s pitch-type splits exhibits that he’s above his profession chase charges on all six of the pitch varieties he’s mostly thrown. Given the amount, the most important deal is that he’s chasing 14.6% of four-seamers and 25% of sinkers outdoors the zone; each of these are about double his 2023–24 charges, and above his profession marks of 11% for four-seamers and 17.9% for sinkers.
His 31.7% chase fee on sliders (together with sweepers) is extra according to his profession marks and his current fluctuations. Whereas he’s hit .229 and slugged .521 in opposition to four-seamers, he’s whiffed on a career-high 30.8%; previous to 2022, he’d by no means whiffed on greater than 22.4% of such pitches. He’s hit simply .111 and slugged .278 on sinkers, down from .294 and .647 final season, albeit in fairly small samples (19 PA this season, 21 final season). He’s 0-for-18 in opposition to sliders and sweepers, with a 42.2% whiff fee.
Given his excessive chase and swinging strike charges, it’s price looking at Trout’s rolling contact charges for in- and out-of-zone pitches. For a similar time interval because the earlier rolling graph, we see that whereas he’s inside comparatively current vary for in-zone pitches, he’s actually within the weeds on out-of-zone ones:
In order that’s not nice. For some extra encouraging information, we shift to what occurs when he makes contact. Maybe as a result of just a few of his greatest seasons preceded the Statcast period — he was the MVP in 2014 and was the runner-up within the earlier two seasons, exceeding 10 WAR in each — Trout has by no means dominated the Statcast leaderboards to fairly the extent that Choose or Shohei Ohtani have besides within the barrel fee division. His common exit velocities and hard-hit charges have each been in 99th-percentile territory at some factors however have centered nearer to the ninetieth percentile, with a low of the 69th percentile for EV and 74th for hard-hit. His barrel charges have usually been within the 98th percentile or above, with a low of the 93rd. Percentile-wise, he’s beneath all of these at the moment, however he’s a lot nearer to his norms in barrel fee, and nonetheless not that far off his Statcast-era averages within the different classes:
Mike Trout Statcast Profile
Season
BBE
EV
Pct EV
Brl%
Pct Brl
HH%
Pct HH
2022
300
91.6
99
19.7%
93
50.3%
97
2023
206
91.9
90
16.0%
99
51.5%
96
2024
82
89.2
89
17.1%
95
41.5%
95
2025
72
90.5
63
16.7%
90
45.8%
66
2015–25
2,744
91.3
15.7%
46.0%
Pattern-wise, we’re far sufficient alongside that we are able to put some inventory in these numbers. Exit velocity stabilizes on the 40 batted ball occasion mark and barrel fee on the 50 BBE mark; hard-hit stabilizes on the 80 BBE mark, so he’s in need of that, however his fee doesn’t seem like a departure.
Trout’s anticipated stats present he’s getting a very uncooked deal within the batting common division, however his anticipated slugging share is according to his current fragmented seasons. The lag between precise and anticipated numbers could be very huge on pitches within the coronary heart of the zone:
Mike Trout Anticipated Stats
Season
Cut up
PA
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
Whiff%
Brl%
2022
Complete
499
.283
.265
.630
.583
.418
.395
30.2%
19.7%
2023
Complete
362
.263
.275
.490
.523
.368
.389
29.3%
16.0%
2024
Complete
126
.220
.271
.541
.591
.365
.405
20.5%
17.1%
2025
Complete
121
.179
.248
.462
.577
.307
.373
30.1%
16.7%
2022
Coronary heart
171
.327
.305
.784
.724
.468
.435
23.7%
24.8%
2023
Coronary heart
141
.353
.377
.683
.775
.428
.487
21.1%
23.3%
2024
Coronary heart
50
.320
.335
.860
.824
.491
.486
13.3%
24.4%
2025
Coronary heart
55
.164
.290
.382
.625
.231
.383
13.7%
13.3%
2022
Shadow
248
.270
.257
.588
.545
.380
.361
27.9%
16.7%
2023
Shadow
151
.221
.219
.397
.368
.304
.294
30.1%
7.1%
2024
Shadow
58
.140
.230
.260
.411
.242
.330
24.5%
6.1%
2025
Shadow
48
.244
.253
.683
.653
.408
.398
34.3%
22.2%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
On pitches within the coronary heart of the zone, Trout’s precise efficiency has been unhealthy — 9 runs beneath common, uncharted territory for him — however whereas his contact in that space hasn’t been as much as his current requirements, it’s been significantly better than his uncooked slash line suggests. He’s truly doing superb within the shadow zone, the pitches on both aspect of the border of the strike zone, at six runs above common, which is nearly as good or higher than he did throughout some classic seasons (2016–18).
Neither his present damage nor his statistics to date recommend issues are notably rosy in Troutland. However whereas we shouldn’t count on him to instantly revert to MVP type, his underlying metrics recommend his efficiency hasn’t been as unhealthy as his numbers take a look at this juncture. We are able to hope — once more — that this received’t be an extended absence, and that as he will get extra taking part in time upon returning, he’ll present us one thing nearer to his productive-when-available 2023-24 ranges. Fingers crossed.
