New Delhi, India – When United States President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin meet in Alaska on Friday, their summit will probably be adopted carefully not solely in each these international locations, Europe and Ukraine – but in addition greater than 10,000km (6,200 miles) away, in New Delhi.
For the reason that finish of the Chilly Warfare, India has juggled a traditionally robust relationship with Russia and quickly blossoming ties with the US. New Delhi’s relations with Washington grew notably robust below the presidencies of George W Bush and Barack Obama, and remained that method throughout Trump’s first time period and below Joe Biden.
On the coronary heart of that US heat in the direction of India, say analysts, was its guess on New Delhi as a balancing drive towards Beijing, as China’s financial, army and strategic heft within the Asia Pacific area grew. With Soviet communism historical past, and China, the US’s greatest strategic rival, Washington elevated its concentrate on Asia – together with via the Quad, a grouping additionally together with fellow democracies India, Australia and Japan.
However a decade after Obama famously described the US and India as “greatest companions”, they look like something however.
Trump has imposed a 50 % tariff on Indian imports, among the many highest on any nation’s merchandise. Half of that penalty is for India’s purchases of Russian oil throughout its ongoing struggle with Ukraine – one thing that the Biden administration inspired India to do to maintain world crude costs below management.
In the meantime, China – which buys much more Russian oil than India – has obtained a reprieve from excessive US tariffs for now, as Washington negotiates a commerce take care of New Delhi.
That distinction has prompted questions over whether or not Trump’s strategy in the direction of China, on the one hand, and conventional buddies like India on the opposite, marks a broader shift away from the US pivot to Asia.
President Donald Trump and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake fingers throughout a information convention within the East Room of the White Home, in Washington, DC, on Thursday, February 13, 2025 (Alex Brandon/AP Photograph)
Troubles for India, and Modi
For the reason that early 2000s, successive governments in New Delhi have embraced nearer ties with Washington, with its shares rising within the US as an rising strategic associate in safety, commerce and expertise.
Trump made that relationship private – with Modi.
Throughout Trump’s first time period, he shared the stage twice in public rallies with Modi, as in addition they exchanged frequent bear hugs and described one another as buddies.
However none of that would save New Delhi when Trump hit India with tariffs solely matched by the levies issued towards items from Brazil.
“The tariff strikes have triggered essentially the most critical rupture within the US-India relations in many years,” mentioned Milan Vaishnav, the director of the South Asia Program on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace.
For months after Trump threatened tariffs on Indian imports, New Delhi tried to placate the US president, refusing to get drawn right into a confrontation. That has now modified, with India accusing the US of hypocrisy – mentioning that it nonetheless trades with Russia, and that Washington had beforehand wished New Delhi to purchase Russian crude.
“One factor is obvious: Belief in america has eroded sharply in current days, casting a protracted shadow over the bilateral relationship,” Vaishnav instructed Al Jazeera.
To Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst on the Worldwide Disaster Group, the disaster within the relationship additionally displays a dramatic flip within the private equation between Modi and Trump. The state of ties, he mentioned, is “a results of a conflict of personalities between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi”.
India has beforehand confronted the specter of US sanctions for its shut friendship with Russia, when it determined to purchase S-400 missile defence methods from Moscow. However in 2022, below the Biden administration, it secured a waiver from these proposed sanctions.
“Not way back, India may keep away from sanctions regardless of buying S-400 weapon methods from Russia. Nevertheless, now, India’s coverage of multi-alignment clashes with President Trump’s transactional strategy to geopolitics,” mentioned Donthi.
To make certain, he identified, America’s Chilly Warfare historical past of bonhomie with Pakistan has meant that “a sure mistrust of the US is embedded within the Indian strategic firmament”. The Trump administration’s current cosiness with Pakistan, with its military chief visiting the US this 12 months, even getting a uncommon assembly with the president on the White Home, will seemingly have amplified these considerations in New Delhi.
However via ups and downs in India-US ties over time, a key strategic glue has held them shut over the previous quarter century: shared worries concerning the rise of China.
“A sure bipartisan consensus existed within the US concerning India due to its long-term strategic significance, particularly in balancing China,” mentioned Donthi.
Now, he mentioned, “the unpredictable Trump presidency disrupted the US’s strategy of ‘strategic altruism’ in the direction of India”.
It’s now not clear to Asian companions of the US, say consultants, whether or not Washington is as centered on constructing alliances of their area because it as soon as mentioned it was.
President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stroll round NRG Stadium waving to the group throughout the ‘Howdy Modi: Shared Desires, Shiny Futures’ occasion in Houston, the US, September 22, 2019 (Evan Vucci/AP Photograph)
Flip from Asia
Beneath the Obama administration in 2011, the US adopted what was often called the “Rebalance to Asia” coverage, geared toward committing extra diplomatic, financial and army sources to the Asia Pacific area, more and more seen because the world’s financial and geopolitical centre of gravity.
This meant deeper engagement with treaty allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, strengthening safety ties with rising companions reminiscent of India and Vietnam, and pushing ahead commerce initiatives just like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
The concept was to form a regional order that would stability China’s rise.
Throughout Trump’s first time period, the financial leg that gave the pivot its weight hollowed out. The US withdrawal from the TPP in early 2017 eliminated the signature commerce pillar, abandoning a technique that leaned closely on army cooperation and fewer on binding financial partnerships.
But, he kept away from the bulldozing negotiations which have formed his strategy to tariffs, even with allies like Japan and South Korea, and from the type of tariffs Trump has imposed now on India.
“There’s at the moment a interval of churn and uncertainty, after which readability will emerge,” Donthi mentioned. “There is likely to be some cautious rebalancing within the quick time period from the Asian powers, who will await extra readability.”
India, which, in contrast to Japan and South Korea, has by no means been a treaty ally to the US – or another nation – would possibly already be taking steps in the direction of that rebalancing.
President Barack Obama, left, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have espresso and tea within the gardens of the Hyderabad Home in New Delhi, India, on January 25, 2015 (Carolyn Kaster/AP Photograph)
Russia-India-China troika?
Confronted with Trump’s tariff wrath, India has been engaged in hectic diplomacy of its personal.
Its nationwide safety adviser, Ajit Doval, visited Moscow earlier this month and met Putin. Overseas Minister S Jaishankar is scheduled to journey to the Russian capital later this month. Additionally in August, Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi is predicted to go to New Delhi. And on the finish of the month, Modi will journey to China for a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, his first journey to the nation in seven years.
India has additionally indicated that it’s open to contemplating the revival of a Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral mechanism, after Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov proposed the platform’s resurrection.
The idea of trilateral cooperation was first proposed within the Nineteen Nineties and formally institutionalised in 2002, an concept Lavrov credited to the late Yevgeny Primakov, former chair of the Russian Worldwide Affairs Council.
Though the RIC met often within the years following its creation, there was a spot in current occasions, with the final assembly of RIC leaders in 2019, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan.
India’s Modi faces some “very troublesome decisions”, mentioned Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow on the Asia Pacific Basis. “Clearly, India shouldn’t be going to activate Russia, a really particular associate. And India doesn’t activate its buddies.”
However doubling down on its strategic independence from the US – or multi-alignment, as India describes it – may include its prices, if Trump decides so as to add on much more tariffs or sanctions.
“The most effective final result for India instantly is the Russians and Ukrainians conform to a ceasefire,” mentioned Kugelman, “as a result of on the finish of the day, Trump is pressuring India as a way of pressuring Russia.”
Whilst questions rise over Washington’s pivot to Asia below Trump, such a rebalance won’t be straightforward for international locations like India, say consultants. Finally, they are saying, the US will discover its longtime companions keen to return to the fold if it decides to reinvest in these relationships.
Chinese language President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi participate in a photograph ceremony earlier than a plenary session of the BRICS 2024 summit in Kazan, Russia, October 23, 2024 (Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik/Pool by way of Reuters)
The price of a rebalance
An RIC troika would in the end be “extra symbolic than substantive”, Kugelman mentioned.
That’s as a result of one of many sides of that triangle is “fairly small and fragile: India-China ties”.
Whereas there have been “notable easing of tensions” in current months, “India and China stay strategic rivals,” added Kugelman. After 4 years of an eyeball-to-eyeball standoff alongside their Himalayan border, they lastly agreed to withdraw troops final 12 months, with Modi and Chinese language President Xi Jinping assembly in Kazan.
However “they proceed to have a protracted disputed border”, Kugelman mentioned, and belief between the Asian giants stays low.
Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment agreed.
“There could also be opportunistic venues and moments the place the international locations’ pursuits converge. However I feel, past defence and power, Russia has little to supply India,” he mentioned. “With China, whereas we might even see a thaw in financial relations, it’s troublesome to see a path to resolving broader safety and geostrategic disputes.”
Jon Danilowicz, a retired diplomat who labored within the US State Division, mentioned that a complete breakdown of the US-India partnership is in neither’s curiosity. “The cooperation in different areas will proceed, maybe with much less open enthusiasm than had been the case in recent times,” he mentioned.
In the meantime, the Trump tariffs may assist Modi domestically.
“Trump’s hardball ways may bolster Modi’s home standing. They spotlight Washington’s unreliability, permitting Modi to border himself as standing agency within the face of the US strain,” mentioned Vaishnav.
Modi had been dealing with strain from the opposition over the ceasefire with Pakistan after 4 days of army hostilities in Could, after 26 civilians had been killed in an assault by gunmen in Kashmir in April. The opposition has accused Modi of not going more durable and longer at Pakistan due to strain from Trump, who has claimed repeatedly that he brokered the ceasefire between New Delhi and Islamabad – a declare India has denied.
“Any additional look of yielding – this time to the US – may very well be politically pricey. Resisting Trump reinforces Modi’s picture as a defender of nationwide pleasure,” added Vaishnav.
Many analysts have mentioned they see Trump’s tariffs additionally as the result of as-yet unsuccessful India-US commerce talks, with New Delhi reluctant to open up the nation’s agriculture and dairy sectors which might be politically delicate for the Indian authorities. Nearly half of India’s inhabitants relies on farming for its livelihood.
Modi has in current days mentioned that he gained’t let the pursuits of Indian farmers endure, “despite the fact that I do know I should pay a private price”.
“He’s demonstrating defiance to the home voters,” mentioned Donthi, of the Worldwide Disaster Group.
Finally, although, he mentioned, each India and the US would profit in the event that they strike a compromise that enables them to cease the slide in ties.
“However the heat and friendliness gained’t be current, and this will probably be evident for a while,” Donthi mentioned.
