2:01
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat
2:01
Hunter: After 2 begins, has Jacob Misiorowski cracked your listing of must-see pitchers?
2:02
Ben Clemens: Sure certainly. He’s dealing with Skenes on Wednesday
2:02
Ben Clemens: it is best to watch
2:02
Zach: Cal Raleigh is at present .9 fWAR behind Aaron Decide. Am I loopy for pondering that if he finishes inside about one win, and the Mariners make the playoffs, Cal will win MVP?
2:02
Ben Clemens: I imply, I kinda doubt it
2:02
Ben Clemens: as a result of WAR just isn’t precisely what folks vote on
2:03
Ben Clemens: offensive stats nonetheless matter extra, for positive
2:04
Ben Clemens: so I might see Raleigh passing Decide, and I might see it being such as you mentioned, ending inside a win, Mariners make the playoffs
2:04
Ben Clemens: however provided that it’s just like it’s now the place his WAR comes largely from hitting, not framing
2:04
Ben Clemens: like, if he has a 150 wRC+ second half however nonetheless posts 5 WAR, to the place his season ending line is 175 wRC+ 10 WAR
2:04
Ben Clemens: and Decide has 11 WAR, 225 wRC+
2:04
Ben Clemens: I imply, the batting distinction is simply going to be too huge
2:05
Ben Clemens: but when it’s all hitting, like if he finally ends up main hte league in homers and posting a wRC+ close to 200?
2:05
Ben Clemens: then I can see it
2:05
The One who asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?
2:06
Ben Clemens: We’ve been making an attempt out a meal package that’s type of disassembled items of issues that you simply put collectively and prepare dinner — like, immediately’s is a few sous vide rooster that I’ll warmth in a pan plus sauteed veggies and a lemon pepper sauce
2:06
dangerous dangerous Ben Brown: has there ever been a viable starter with basically 2 pitches? what do the cubs do with me? Am i destined to be an RP or is my change up getting ok to throw in video games over 5%?
2:06
Ben Clemens: Jacob deGrom was the perfect pitcher on the planet for like 4 years in a row with two pitches
2:07
Ben Clemens: however like, two REALLY good pitches, not two strong ones
2:07
Your Title: If you happen to have been the Padres, would you’ve thrown at Ohtani? If not, what would you’ve carried out?
2:07
Ben Clemens: I might not have. I’m not a ‘throw at folks’ man. Nothing is achieved by this besides angering everybody
2:07
Ben Clemens: I believe I might have complained vigorously and mocked the Dodgers for his or her hilariously dangerous management
2:08
Ben Clemens: given a ton of quotes about how afraid they’re of Tatis
2:08
Jett: Hey Ben! Recognize the chat. Streaky Lars Nootbaar or leveling-off Tommy Edman this week? Thanks!
2:09
Ben Clemens: Okay, seemed on the schedule, and I believe I’d take Edman – three lefties this week
2:09
Ben Clemens: Edman simply mashes lefties, I’d be keen to experience that
2:10
Ken: What does Denzel Clarke must hit to be a strong common, given his stellar protection?
2:10
Ben Clemens: like, 80 wRC+?
2:10
Ben Clemens: clearly his present .190/.218/.250 line just isn’t gonna work
2:10
Ham Fighter: Are these current Brewers groups among the many greatest pace & protection squads of all time? Their 35.8 fWAR since 2023 is twentieth however their 56.5 rWAR is 2nd, that’s like 20 further wins. On offense their 97 wRC+ is nineteenth however they’ve scored the tenth most runs by being the perfect base operating workforce (+37.6 BsR) and High 5 with RISP. All instructed their 228 wins since 2023 are tied with ATL for third most in MLB…with a 97 wRC+ and 100 FIP-.
2:10
Ben Clemens: they’re actually top-of-the-line pace and protection groups of my reminiscence
2:11
Ben Clemens: I hesitate to say of all time as a result of man, there’s been a whole lot of baseball, and we haven’t measured all of them in the identical approach
2:11
Ben Clemens: however since we’ve been in a position to put numbers on it, they’ve my vote for the perfect
2:11
Lord Thunder: Does Ohtani get to 50 HRs this season? How a lot — if any — does his return to pitching jeopardize his offensive manufacturing? Looks as if a pointless inury threat.
2:12
Ben Clemens: I believe he is not going to, extra so as a result of I count on him to be extra centered on pitching this yr than earlier than. I don’t really feel snug placing a quantity on what % of his focus that takes or something, however one factor we’ve seen with Ohtani is that he’s superb at deciding he desires to do one thing, specializing in it, and getting it carried out (50/50 final yr, for instance). I count on that focus to be solidly educated on pitching. He clearly values being a two-way participant very extremely
2:13
War2d2: Cubs beat reporters doing a radio hit this week mentioned he was listening to that there Cubs have been getting shut on a deal for a starter and probably a 3rd baseman. Who’s your greatest guess, and why is it Gallen and Suarez.
2:13
Ben Clemens: why are the DBacks buying and selling Gallen and Suarez?
2:13
Ben Clemens: they’re spending a crap ton of cash making an attempt to compete
2:13
Ben Clemens: they’re in playoff competition except they’ve an enormous swoon
2:14
Ben Clemens: and certainly you need the Cubs to flip them like, a lottery ticket and possibly some bubblegum since they’re each leases, it’s not like Arizona can be buying guys who will assist them win throughout their present aggressive window (quickly)
2:14
Ben Clemens: so I simply don’t perceive the motivation for this commerce
2:17
Ben Clemens: a greater match can be like…. Miguel Vargas and Shane Smith or one thing comparable
2:17
Ben Clemens: as a result of no less than the White Sox try to promote
2:17
Kevin: Strider additionally had (and nonetheless has) solely 2 pitches.
2:17
Bosoxforlife: 101.6 on my Nat Geo thermometer. Solely the 4th day since 1905 that it has reached 100 in June right here close to Hartford, CT. If i wanted one more reason to speak immediately, which I don’t, that’s greater than sufficient. Query: I’m nonetheless on the fence about Rafaela. If he can maintain a 99 OPS + is that ok?
2:17
Ben Clemens: oh my goodness, 100
2:18
Ben Clemens: I used to work in CT and I type of can’t imagine that. I bear in mind June as a pleasant time to stroll to the prepare within the afternoon, not a pleasant time to by no means go away air con
2:18
Ben Clemens: If Rafaela is a league common hitter, he’s nice, imo
2:18
Ben Clemens: like, greatest Crimson Sox outfielder nice
2:18
Ben Clemens: he’s a particular defender
2:19
Ben Clemens: I’m very skeptical he can hit that degree offensively, to be truthful. His sense of the strike zone is simply not superb but. I believe that should enhance for him to make the general package deal work, in any other case he’s kinda residing on errors
2:19
War2d2: re: Gallen/Suarez, that was the implication from Bruce Levine’s report, however he didn’t title names. On the subject of Gallen, his Statcast is ice blue. At this level he simply appears to be a foul pitcher. Is he A) probably a “change of surroundings” man, B) harm, C) ageing out of the league prematurely, or D) different? If that Cubs rumor is true, is he (and his 5+ ERA) even an improve at this level?
2:21
Ben Clemens: Yeah….. I believe my greatest guess on Gallen is b) as a result of I don’t see why a) would abruptly be the case after years of not needing one
2:21
Ben Clemens: d) additionally looks like an possibility
2:21
Ben Clemens: and yeah, buying and selling for Gallen is bizarre proper now
2:21
Ben Clemens: would you be happy to get him? I believe you’ll if it value nearly nothing
2:21
Ben Clemens: however then why would Arizona let him go for that?
2:21
Ben Clemens: possibly issues change in the event that they’re 5 below .500 in a month, although
2:22
Ben Clemens: for one factor, they’re not gonna let him go for lower than the comp decide for a qualifying provide, he’s certainly gonna get one
2:22
Reds fan battling the warmth dome: Will I remorse not going to see Chase Burns’ debut Tuesday night time? Or will I remorse sitting within the midwestern warmth dome as I gaze by way of my binoculars within the outfield seats of GABP and say, “yep, he throws exhausting!”. Your counsel is required.
2:22
Ben Clemens: I’d most likely go if it’s beneath 80 at night time, that’s kinda my restrict for not feeling terrible in warmth (I can deal with extra in the course of the day, however sizzling sticky nights are simply depressing)
2:23
Ben Clemens: however I’ll say this: I’ve been to a whole lot of gamers’ debuts and likewise a whole lot of gamers’ rookie seasons. I don’t assume the debut feels meaningfully extra particular than the rookie season except they do one thing superb that very day
2:23
Ben Clemens: so if it’s gonna be a hardship to go this time, don’t, however discover one other Chase Burns recreation to go to this yr
2:23
Visitor: If you happen to requested GMs, would they quite have 1 yr of a ten conflict catcher or an 11 conflict outfielder?
2:23
Ben Clemens: I believe they most likely wouldn’t care a lot
2:24
Ben Clemens: these numbers are simply gaudy sufficient that they might make both work
2:24
Ben Clemens: I assume on common they’d choose the outfielder b/c what in the event that they already had an excellent catcher? however you possibly can all the time add an outfielder
2:24
Defensive metrics: Do you typically belief DRS or OAA extra? Does it change by place? Personally I’m extra skeptical of DRS as a result of I really feel prefer it produces much more bizarre outlier seasons.
2:24
Ben Clemens: I used to be gonna do a extra particular breakdown of this after voting for Fielding Bible awards final yr however I by no means bought round to it
2:24
Ben Clemens: principally I like OAA most (on a relative foundation) for the infield
2:25
Ben Clemens: the place I believe it’s each extra secure and extra correlated to my makes an attempt at making a ‘defensive baseline’ primarily based on conversion charge of alternatives into outs
2:25
Ben Clemens: within the outfield I like to make use of each
2:26
Rex Manning Day: intentional walks are an abomination. a workforce’s greatest hitter coming to the plate in an enormous second is exactly the type of second we watch baseball for, and it’s absurd that the opposite workforce can simply be like, “nah, subsequent.” my proposal: get rid of the pitchless IBB, and require catchers to (1) be behind the plate and (2) not standing up when the pitch is thrown. so you possibly can nonetheless pitch round a man, you simply must throw 4 precise pitches that miss the zone to do it. ideas?
2:26
Ben Clemens: this doesn’t actually hassle me very a lot, to be trustworthy, although I see why you don’t prefer it
2:27
Ben Clemens: I believe doing this might simply result in some dangerous outcomes, principally. extra hit batters, extra harmful pitches, extra probability of somebody getting harm, however the overwhelming majority of the time no change in end result
2:27
J: PCA misplaced practically 3 OAA for balls getting caught within the solar and wind on a loopy day at Wrigley. Is there any solution to even account for this? Appears unfair to dock him like a 3rd of a win for balls which can be undoubtedly not 99% catch likelihood in actuality.
2:27
Ben Clemens: nicely, do you assume that the stats bought EVERYTHING proper each different time he’s caught one?
2:27
Ben Clemens: for the reason that averages are primarily based on all balls, a few of his 95% catches are most likely like (99% except it’s a solar ball then 0)
2:28
Ben Clemens: so ought to we go devalue all of his non-sun-ball catches barely?
2:28
Ben Clemens: the thought of those programs is that they’re good in combination, not that they’re a flawless accounting of the precise worth offered by each participant excluding all parts
2:28
Ben Clemens: like yeah, an excellent system would account for extra stuff
2:28
Ben Clemens: however eh, it’s small potatoes to me
2:29
Oaktown Blues: Jacob Lopez solely throws like 91, however he’s posting some gaudy Okay numbers not too long ago. His fastball kinda jogs my memory of Wealthy Hill’s. Have you ever seen any of his begins? Is he possibly a mid rotation arm?
2:29
Ben Clemens: I’ve seen just a little of him and I don’t really feel snug with an opinion simply but
2:29
Ben Clemens: it doesn’t LOOK prefer it ought to work, however yeah, neither do numerous pitchers
2:29
Bosoxforlife: Of all of the surprises that I’ve had throughout my lengthy historical past of following this recreation, #1 is that Francisco Lindor emerged as an influence hitter. After watching him in Double A I might have guess he wouldn’t hit 30 HR’s in his profession, not 30 in a single yr 5 occasions in his profession however seeing Eugenio Suarez simply hit his three hundredth HR isn’t far behind and to assume he was traded for a bag of balls by the Tigers a few years in the past.
2:29
Ben Clemens: Eugenio Suarez will get traded for a bag of balls like on a regular basis
2:29
Ben Clemens: it’s so bizarre
2:31
Ben Clemens: Like, first the Tigers commerce, then the Reds commerce him to the Mariners (plus Jesse WInker, the headliner of the deal b/c he was a younger low cost breakout candidate)
2:31
Ben Clemens: in that one, the Reds included Suarez seemingly to decrease payroll
2:32
Ben Clemens: then the Mariners commerce him to the DBacks for Carlos Vargas and Seby Zavala, to dump payroll principally
2:32
Ben Clemens: in the meantime he simply retains hitting, in every single place
2:32
Ben Clemens: he needs to be probably the most stunning energy hitters of all time
2:32
Lowe Distribution System: The demise of the beginning pitcher was alleged to coincide with the rise of 2-4 inning relievers, however I don’t assume we’ve seen that occur basically in any respect. As an alternative, everybody has simply used AAA roster spots to successfully develop the scale of the bullpen. Can we cease this, or will we even care concerning the aesthetic distinction of 1 vs 3 inning relievers?
2:33
Ben Clemens: honestly, I don’t assume the league cares sufficient to cease it
2:33
Ben Clemens: I believe they’re additionally nervous about how which may have an effect on damage threat
2:33
Talfred: Each day that goes by, it seems to be an increasing number of to me like Jarren Duran’s 2024 season was a profession yr, offensively and defensively, and that his 2025 season is near his true expertise degree. Would you agree?
2:34
Ben Clemens: mmmm, I believe he’s higher than he’s proven this yr, however I believe his true degree is near his profession line (109 wRC+)
2:35
Ben Clemens: I spent a whole lot of time fascinated about Duran’s worth at numerous factors final yr after which a ton once more this yr, and it’s exhausting for me to take a look at his skillset and see an elite hitter. however common (or just a little above) plus good D, the second coming of Benintendi (Crimson Sox period)? Positive
2:35
Oaktown Blues: Tbh when the Reds traded Suarez I assumed he was fairly cooked. Spectacular second wind
2:35
Ben Clemens: Oh, I did too!
2:36
Visitor: I believe you underestimate voter fatigue and the necessity for a brand new storyline.
2:36
Ben Clemens: i imply, may very well be. I’d really feel extra assured in that if Decide weren’t THIS good, or if he’d gained three in a row, or if he werne’t a Yankee
2:37
LAD-PIT: Are Dashing, Freeland, Ferris, Hope, and De Paula a fairish/affordable return for Skenes? That is coming from a Pads fan that decidedly doesn’t need to see this occur, simply curious.
2:37
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so – it’s not pretty much as good of a return because the Soto deal, and Skenes has extra years of workforce management
2:37
Ben Clemens: and moreover, it will most likely finish the Pirates to commerce Paul Skenes for a bunch of maybes. you higher be getting an elite elite prospect again
2:38
Judgement Day: I repeat, did the Crimson Sox break Decide?
2:38
Ben Clemens: Let you know what: I’m gonna guess no, you possibly can guess sure
2:38
Ben Clemens: let’s reconvene in a number of months and see
2:38
Talfred: Re: Duran, you discuss with good D, however this season he has a unfavorable Protection quantity on Fangraphs for the fourth time in 5 years.
2:40
Ben Clemens: nicely Def contains place, and he’s again in left subject, which has a beneath common worth. I believe it’s truthful to say that he’s a plus outfielder total, and might deal with middle; he was undoubtedly a LOT worse early in his profession when he was seen as extra of a multi-positional man and was studying to be a full-time outfielder
2:43
Ben Clemens: I’ve a decrease opinion of his protection than your common analyst, I believe – he bought a ton of votes for Fielding Bible in CF
2:43
Ben Clemens: however I believe he’s clearly strong on the market
2:43
Noah: What do you assume is Bryan Reynolds hypothetical commerce worth within the midst of a down yr? Assuredly “not good”, however would you contemplate the long run worth of his workforce team-friendly?
2:44
Ben Clemens: I imply, you’re hoping he’s a median participant going ahead
2:44
Ben Clemens: he’s been a median participant in ’22, ’23, and ’24, a lot worse than that to this point this yr
2:44
Ben Clemens: groups don’t like paying 8 figures over very long time durations for that type of manufacturing
2:45
Ben Clemens: it is a very completely different deal than accepting an “overpay” relative to your mannequin values for, say, Rafael Devers
2:48
Lowe Distribution System: The Orioles will certainly purpose to retool for subsequent yr on the deadline. However can any of their commerce items convey again anybody helpful for subsequent yr?
2:48
Ben Clemens: I imply, I don’t assume so
2:48
Ben Clemens: however, I’m undecided they should, no less than instantly
2:48
Ben Clemens: we all know that the Orioles like ‘successful’ trades by way of surplus worth, Elias has made a number of feedback to that effecgt
2:48
Ben Clemens: so in the event that they stack up just a little worth this yr, possibly they’ll then expend some to commerce for items that can assist them win subsequent yr?
2:49
Ben Clemens: that’s the speculation, no less than. proper now, the O’s have a pleasant long-term pipeline of expertise, and so they appear very afraid of dipping into it
2:49
Ben Clemens: however hey, in the event you make the pipeline higher, possibly it might face up to extra of a dip
2:49
Bosoxforlife: Only a few acknowledge that Duran was superb in 2023 with an OPS+ of 121. 2024 was not an enormous shock to Crimson Sox followers however he has, most actually, been a disappointment this yr. I recall him dropping no less than 3 fly balls whereas not offering the dynamic offense the followers anticipated.
2:49
Ben Clemens: yeah I assumed ’23 was “good Duran”
2:49
Ben Clemens: and I type of nonetheless do
2:49
Ben Clemens: typically folks have profession years
2:50
Ben Clemens: however Duran is usually a good and beneficial contributor with out replicating his tremendous excessive prime finish season
2:50
Chris: Would you quite have Andy Pages or Heliot Ramos — actual life, not fantasy baseball?
2:50
Ben Clemens: I believe I’d choose Pages due to his protection
2:51
Ben Clemens: I don’t assume their bats look all that completely different, actually
2:51
Ben Clemens: I might give the slight edge to Ramos there
2:51
Ben Clemens: however I don’t purchase Ramos as a middle fielder, I watched a whole lot of him on the market final yr and he was not good
2:51
Ben Clemens: and that’s extra of a distinction maker to me, given how shut I count on them to be with the bat
2:52
Matt: Hey Ben, if somebody requested you whether or not or not Cal Raleigh will hit 50 hrs this yr, you’d must take the below proper? What he’s doing proper now as a catcher is unprecedented, however logically you possibly can’t depend on him repeating his first half for one more 75 video games
2:52
Ben Clemens: yeah, agreed
2:52
Ben Clemens: that doesn’t imply I don’t need to see it, although
2:52
Ben Clemens: we’ve got him RIGHT at 51 homers, so actually cuspy
2:52
Ben Clemens: however that’s with 321 PA the remainder of the way in which, which I believe I’d take the below on, that’s simply accountable
2:52
Josh: Talking of Pages, do you foresee him as solidly in your commerce worth sequence?
2:54
Ben Clemens: he’s actually within the combine. I gave a run of gamers to get prolonged projections on to Dan not too long ago and he was on it. I do know that I’ve, traditionally, overvalued “good protection, younger, having good offensive season” hitters earlier than, so I’m making an attempt to take that under consideration, however sure, I believe he’s most likely going to be on it
2:54
Travis: Let’s say hypothetically Acuna performs just a little over 100 video games nonetheless hitting at his present tempo, any probability he wins MVP?
2:55
Ben Clemens: mmmmmm…. actually, possibly? seems like a relative down yr within the NL proper now, no meteoric first halves, so nobody is operating away with it
2:56
Half Road: Is James Wooden’s improved protection this yr (common by OAA, good by DRS) actual?
2:59
Ben Clemens: I haven’t watched sufficient to say for SURE however I’ve upgraded his protection in my head. Partially, that’s as a result of I all the time thought he’d determine it out. It’s Bayesian – I had him pegged as a future good defender as a result of he’s an excellent athlete with plus pace.
2:59
Ben Clemens: so seeing one thing that I anticipated to occur raises my confidence that it’s an actual enchancment, not simply noise
2:59
John: Hello Ben will G Taylor be the complete time nearer for the white Sox remainder of this yr and the foreseeable future?
2:59
Ben Clemens: I imply, except he’s dangerous!
3:00
Ben Clemens: however he clearly has a simple inside monitor on it
3:00
Hunter: Reds DFA’d Candelario, the place do you assume he finally ends up?
3:01
Ben Clemens: I’m actually inquisitive about this. In all probability a foul workforce with no 3B, as a result of I believe he makes essentially the most sense tehre
3:01
Ben Clemens: possibly the A’s ship Max Muncy down or make him a utillity gy?
3:02
Ben Clemens: possibly the Nats need a reunion with him backing up Home and DH’ing (b/c Bell isn’t figuring out?)
3:03
Ben Clemens: I believe {that a} contender is unlikely to take a threat on him, however a non-contender may decide him up hoping he seems to be superior the remainder of the way in which, or maybe seems to be SO good within the nextm onth that they’ll flip him for a lottery ticket after he type of rebuilds his worth
3:03
LB: Hey now, re: the Reds-M’s Suarez commerce, that return busted, however it seemed fairly beneficial on the time! A viable mid-level MLB platoon bat to instantly exchange Wink (Jake Fraley), a prime 100 prospect with helium (Brandon Williamson), a super-helium man who ended up as a prime 100 man quickly thereafter (Connor Phillips), and a former 1st rounder reclamation venture (Justin Dunn). All of the pitchers busted for numerous causes, however hindsight is 20/20 in fact!
3:03
Ben Clemens: I agree, however studying by way of a whole lot of the protection, it looks like WInker was the prize and Suarez was type of a ‘common participant with an excessive amount of $ owed’ added to the deal
3:04
Ben Clemens: it undoubtedly seems to be worse on reflection than it did then, although
3:04
Ben Clemens: however Winker equally busted. he was coming off of three.2 WAR in 2/3 of a season when he bought dealt
3:04
Ben Clemens: and he’s been value 1.1 WAR within the subsequent 4 years mixed
3:05
Ben Clemens: Suarez was not the main focus of the return, coming off of a actually alternative degree season with an 85 wRC+
3:05
Appa Yip Yip: Eugenio Suarez additionally has impeccable vibes between the hair and the smile and the beard. All people ought to need that man on their workforce. I very particularly need the Dbacks to play themselves out of competition so my workforce can commerce for him.
3:05
Ben Clemens: he looks like such an excellent dude too (by no means meet your heroes, I’m simply guessing from what I can observe on TV)
3:05
Ben Clemens: the vibes are simply immaculate
3:06
Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Good afternoon Ben! This can be extra of a Szym-Chat query, however why does Riley Greene present as having unfavorable defensive worth in his WAR calculation? Admittedly the attention check is imperfect, however once I watch him, I see a comfortably above-average LFer. I imply, simply yesterday he made three nice catches that have been absolute bangers.
3:06
Ben Clemens: I’m answering this one b/c I’m writing about Riley Greene actually righ tnow
3:06
Ben Clemens: or, nicely, I assume I ended to speak. However I’m within the strategy of writing about him
3:07
Ben Clemens: we principally simply use OAA, and OAA sees him as a strong however not elite left fielder this yr, seventieth percentile
3:08
Ben Clemens: the factor is, left subject is an easy place int he grand scheme of issues. Def is defensive worth relative to common on your place plus a positional adjustment
3:08
Ben Clemens: in order that positional adjustment (it’s like -3 runs or so for the way lengthy he’s performed this yr) is why his Def is unfavorable
3:09
Ben Clemens: i feel you possibly can argue that the positional adjustment within the corners is a smidge too harsh, however actually, I dno’t assume it’s off by a lot. If positional changes are fallacious, those which can be on the highest of my listing for adjustment are 1B and DH
3:10
Ben Clemens: so principally what we’re saying is ‘he’s an excellent defender for a left fielder, however a median left subject defender just isn’t as beneficial as a median CF, 2B, SS’
3:10
Ben Clemens: I undoubtedly agree that he’s a plus fielder, although. It’s good to keep in mind that defensive statistics are unavoidably noisy and that Greene rated out higher in 2024. I believe he’s nearly actually higher than his 2025 statistics
3:10
Okra: Given all the difficulty the A’s and Rays are having constructing new stadiums, is it affordable to count on 2 new growth cities to assist foot the invoice and get it throughout the end line? Appears like public opinion on this has kinda flipped. Appears to be an enormous barrier to growth nobody talks about.
3:11
Ben Clemens: I believe that’s an excellent level
3:11
Ben Clemens: I’m actually curious, I guess you MLB is performing some polling on that query in potential growth cities
3:12
Oaktown Blues: My guess is MLB will waive or decrease growth charges in change for the possible proprietor paying for the brand new stadium
3:12
Ben Clemens: I’m inquisitive about that. Previously, you could possibly consider growth charges as essential, since you’re slicing up the TV income extra methods in the event you increase however it’s unlikely that the nationwide TV offers are gonna get a lot larger
3:13
Ben Clemens: so if I’m, say, the Dodgers, why do I would like an growth workforce if I’m not getting charges?
3:13
Ben Clemens: however now that the long run TV income image is much less sure, possibly the deal is just a little completely different
3:14
Ben Clemens: possibly now it’s about preserving baseball’s curiosity throughout the nation and juicing up the TV offers with extra out there video games to attempt to make them extra engaging to sellers
3:14
Ben Clemens: I believe we’re nonetheless a number of unfavorable TV offers away from groups agreeing to waive growth charges, as a result of actually, there’s a whole lot of demand to have a baseball workforce amongst billionaires
3:14
Ben Clemens: but when they’re struggling to draw true growth bidders and the deal changing the Sunday Evening Baseball deal is dangerous, I might see it?
3:14
Bosoxforlife: You touched my third rail once you convey up positional penalties, however so long as folks really assume {that a} baseball beginning lineup consists of 9 males quite the ten that truly comprise the beginning lineup then the DH will probably be unfairly penalized for no sane cause by any means.
3:15
Ben Clemens: i are likely to agree. I believe that DH and 1B projections that solely have a look at WAR proper now don’t seize the precise worth of getting these gamers in your workforce
3:15
Ben Clemens: significantly for precise distinction making hitters
3:16
Boeke: Who’s a practical commerce goal for the Yankees. I assume I ought to specify – somebody that’s a greater hitter than IKF. Or do you assume it’ll principally be gamers like him on the transfer this commerce season?
3:16
Ben Clemens: can I curiosity you in JJ Bleday?
3:16
Ben Clemens: I’ve to think about the A’s would like to get one thing again for him now that they need to play Clarke plus the statues
3:17
Ben Clemens: (no offense to Tyler Soderstrom and Brent Rooker, they’re statues with plus energy, I’m into it)
3:17
Okra: additionally, 2 new growth groups additional erode future leverage for current house owners threatening to relocate in the event that they don’t get a brand new stadium
3:18
Ben Clemens: Yeah, which is why I undoubtedly don’t assume they’ll do it till the Vegas stadium is confirmed good (they broke floor, so wanting higher on this entrance) and the Rays state of affairs is settled
3:18
Oaktown Blues: Unsure NYY positions of want however A’s may also have Andujar and Urias to promote
3:19
Ben Clemens: Urias is simply not gonna have that a lot worth after so many seasons of not hitting. And I say this as an enormous Urias fan, one who’s persistently too excessive on him
3:19
Ben Clemens: and similar take care of Andujar, he’s a profession common hitter who has no defensive residence, additionally he already had a reasonably dangerous run in big apple
3:20
Ben Clemens: they do want a second baseman, so mayyyyyybe Urias is sensible? However actually, their roster isn’t that simple to enhance, they’re kinda jam full of hitters they’re making an attempt to determine the way to play
3:20
Ben Clemens: like Bleday would also have a robust time discovering enjoying time and I believe he’s by far the perfect hitter of the A’s choices
3:21
Ben Clemens: so possibly I ought to say like…. Suarez if the DBacks fall out?
3:21
Ben Clemens: an infielder can be higher in NYY, however provided that they’re really an excellent hitter
3:21
GraphsMan: you talked about the Smith and Vargas chance for the Cubs, however what actual incentive would the Sox have to try this? They’re controllable however not gonna get a large return, in some unspecified time in the future isn’t it value simply conserving competent gamers in order that the on subject product isn’t fully depressing?
3:21
Ben Clemens: i imply, I agree with that
3:21
Ben Clemens: I might say that main league groups principally appear to not when they’re tanking
3:22
Ben Clemens: like final White Sox teardown, they blew it up fairly comprehensively
3:22
Ben Clemens: I assume they stored Tim Anderson round
3:23
Ben Clemens: and Jose Abrue
3:23
Ben Clemens: so okay possibly they do hold them, high quality
3:23
JK: Are there any correlated monitoring knowledge simply out there? I really like in basketball, hockey, soccer, and so on. you possibly can monitor how a sure participant does when enjoying with one other participant. Is that carried out as a lot right here in baseball? I.e. when Decide is within the lineup, Jazz hits X, however when Decide is out, Jazz hits Y for a delta of D.
3:23
Ben Clemens: all that knowledge exists
3:24
Ben Clemens: it’s all on Baseball Savant, in the event you really feel like sorting by way of it. However once you have a look at historic splits like that, they’re all noise, little or no correlation between one yr and the subsequent, so we principally don’t hassle quoting them
3:24
Ben Clemens: it’s kinda just like the day recreation/night time recreation cut up or one thing of that nature
3:24
Melky Cabrera (All-Star): Are there any present announcers you can’t stand?
3:24
Ben Clemens: sure, however I’m not saying who
3:24
Ben Clemens: I believe Davy may need talked about reviving the crowdsourced broadcaster rankings this yr, man, I hope so
3:24
HappyFunBall: Luis Urias would most likely work out nicely really. He’s being paid nothing and wouldn’t value a lot in commerce. Additionally he can cowl 3B in the course of the inevitable subsequent JAzz damage. He’s hit higher than DJLM for 3 seasons operating…
3:24
Sig Mejdal: Do the O’s transfer anyone on the deadline in addition to O’Hearn? Mullins is admittedly struggling on the plate and might’t play on daily basis; Mountcastle is out for some time. I assume Zach Eflin has some worth?
3:24
Dudhd: I’m additionally too excessive on Luis Urias! It appears the park and his abruptly excessive contact and excessive flyball charge SHOULD result in numerous residence park homers, however it looks like he’s been dropping momentum. What are your ideas on him and is he toast when Gelof returns?
3:24
Ben Clemens: Whoops, Sig, I’ll reply yours in a second. however first, let’s kind the fan membership!
3:25
Ben Clemens: yeah, um, I wouldn’t commerce Mullins if I have been them. I agree that the return may not be superb, additionally, I like Mullins as an O and I believe the hit to workforce confidence and fan approval can be sufficient that they’d want an actual return for him
3:26
J: Jim Bowden proposed the Cubs buying and selling Horton, Caissie, Alcantara, and Ronny Cruz for Sandy Alcantara. As a Cardinals fan, how blissful would it not make you if this man have been the Cubs’ GM?
3:27
Ben Clemens: I imply, I don’t assume that transfer can be outrageous in the event you assume Sandy is an ace going ahead
3:28
Ben Clemens: I simply don’t. However gimme a number of weeks of begins to see how a lot he’s in a position to hold his current enchancment, I sustain on Lance Brozdowski’s pitcher updates and I agree with Lance that he appears to be trending again up as he will get extra reps below his belt
3:29
Ben Clemens: I’d principally simply say that I wouldn’t make that deal with no little bit extra understanding of how ‘again’ he’s. As a result of the value is correct, two extra years at affordable numbers, plus this yr, for a Cy Younger winner. Simply…. the post-TJ stuff, eh
3:29
Mr pink legs: You appeared to be taking a relative step again on Ellys commerce worth a pair weeks in the past. How do you are feeling now after his multi week sizzling streak has him enjoying higher than final yr?
3:29
Ben Clemens: I imply, I’m making an attempt to not be TOO affected by a number of weeks of sizzling streaks
3:29
Ben Clemens: that’s really the purpose of spreading out my evaluation over an extended time interval
3:30
Ben Clemens: I assume I might say that the probabilities of Elly turning into the best baseball participant of our technology are decrease now than they have been final yr
3:30
Ben Clemens: although his probabilities of being a bust are commensurately decrease
3:31
Ben Clemens: and to me, sufficient of his worth (within the commerce worth sequence, wehre I had him as a prime 5 worth in all of baseball) was concerning the probability of a very ridiculous ceiling that one other yr within the books with good however not nice manufacturing lowers the general EV
3:31
Bosoxforlife: I would want much more proof than has been proven earlier than I might give any actual gamers for Alcantara. He pitched the sport I noticed in Pittsburgh and was in a position to get the Pirate “hitters” out however so might you.
3:31
Ben Clemens:
3:31
Zach: “as a result of WAR just isn’t precisely what folks vote on” – I believe that is precisely what they do vote on (now), with possibly some squishiness when 2+ gamers are shut in WAR. Definitely the final three seasons they’ve.
3:31
Ben Clemens: however like, we presupposed that they’re going to be shut
3:32
Ben Clemens: I agree with you that if Raleigh had 13 WAR and Decide 10, it wouldn’t matter who hit higher
3:32
Lance Biggerstaff: It’s very, very far down on the listing of the Orioles’ issues, however the place the heck has Gunnar Henderson’s energy gone?
3:32
Ben Clemens: I dunno however like…. give it just a little time
3:34
Ben Clemens: he began late because of damage, has performed 70 video games, and is getting pitched very cautiously b/c there’s nobody else on his workforce hitting, main to actually excessive stroll charges and low strikeout charges in June
3:34
Ben Clemens: alright, beautiful chat immediately, however I gotta run and get began on lunch
3:35
Ben Clemens: I will probably be off the subsequent two weeks for a trip (Denmark and Norway, principally Norway) earlier than we dash into the ASG/draft/commerce worth/commerce deadline bonanza within the second half of July
3:35
Ben Clemens: have a beautiful week everybody, and I’m positive I’ll speak to you quickly
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He might be discovered on Bluesky @benclemens.
