Mogadishu, Somalia – Ending the US’ “endlessly wars” was a serious slogan of Donald Trump’s 2024 election marketing campaign, throughout which he and lots of of his supporters spoke out in opposition to American assets and lives being put to waste in conflicts throughout the globe.
However on February 1, a mere 10 days after being inaugurated for a second time, President Trump introduced that the US had carried out air strikes focusing on senior management of ISIL (ISIS) in Somalia. “These killers, who we discovered hiding in caves, threatened the US,” his put up on X learn. This marked Trump’s first navy motion abroad, but it surely wouldn’t be his final.
Within the time since, the US has supplied weapons and assist to Israel in its wars in Gaza and throughout the Center East; it has launched strikes on Yemen; and even attacked Iran’s nuclear amenities. On the identical time, within the Horn of Africa, US strikes have greater than “doubled” since final 12 months, in response to US Africa Command (AFRICOM).
AFRICOM, which oversees US navy operations on the continent, has carried out at the least 43 air strikes in Somalia in 2025, in response to assume tank New Americawhich tracks strikes utilizing AFRICOM knowledge. Greater than half of these, that are performed in coordination with Somalia’s federal authorities, focused IS-Somalia, the ISIL affiliate in northeast Puntland state, whereas the rest focused al-Shabab.
The uptick in US air strikes focusing on IS-Somalia seems to be linked to rising issues that the group has grow to be a hub for regional and international ISIL associates by way of financing and assaults, in response to US officers.
On the identical time, specialists additionally observe the current worrying good points being made by al-Shabab in Somalia.
However why is that this a battle the “Make America Nice Once more” Trump administration has an rising hand in – particularly provided that a long time of US coverage in Somalia have been marred by controversy, catastrophe and failure?
A June 2010 file picture exhibits a US Predator unmanned drone armed with a missile that has been used in opposition to targets from Afghanistan to Somalia (File: Massoud Hossaini/AP Photograph)
American intervention in Somalia: A failure because the begin?
“Ever since Black Hawk Down, Somalia was a no-go zone for the US,” mentioned Abukar Arman, a Somali analyst and former particular envoy to the US, referring to the failed 1993 US navy intervention in Somalia throughout which 18 US troops and 1000’s of Somali civilians had been killed.
“That modified after 9/11 when Somalia turned one of many key theatres of so-called GWOT (international battle on terror). That political facade has three aims: It justifies US sustained deadly drone assaults within the public psyche; it allows the US to protect its geopolitical pursuits within the Horn of Africa; (and) it allows American predatory capitalists to have interaction in financial exploitation,” Arman advised Al Jazeera.
In 2007, Somalia turned the primary nation on the African continent to fall sufferer to a US air strike within the put up 9/11 period as a part of its so-called “battle on terror”. Within the a long time that adopted, US aerial bombardment of the nation has not solely continued however intensified.
Throughout the mixed 16 years below former presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama, there have been greater than 50 US air strikes on Somalia, whereas Trump’s first time period alone noticed a staggering 219 strikes, in response to New America. With dozens extra strikes simply 5 months into his second time period, analysts say if it continues at this price, Trump is bound to surpass the 51 strikes the Biden administration performed throughout its whole 4 years in workplace.
Jethro Norman, a senior researcher with the Danish Institute for Worldwide Research, means that in Somalia, Trump has made a really perfect stage on which to remotely venture US energy capabilities – because it combines excessive firepower, low oversight and little US home political threat.
“By loosening Obama-era restrictions, he enabled a surge in preemptive strikes with minimal vetting or accountability. The logic wasn’t simply strategic; it was theatrical: a option to carry out toughness, sign distinction with earlier administrations, and declare counterterrorism ‘wins’ with out entanglement,” Norman advised Al Jazeera.
“So, what you see now could be a spike in drone exercise, however with none corresponding funding in long-term peacebuilding or governance assist,” he defined.
Norman additionally highlighted how infighting throughout the Trump White Home on coverage route in Somalia performed a job within the huge uptick in US strikes.
“There have been additionally competing camps inside his (Trump’s) administration. Some pushed laborious for kinetic engagement in Somalia and Yemen, whereas others argued that counterterrorism was a distraction from great-power rivalry with China.
“That coverage push and pull (between spectacle and technique) helps clarify why air strikes surged at the same time as Trump talked about ending endlessly wars,” he mentioned.
A person sits beside the wreckages of burned navy provide automobiles utilized by suspected ISIL fighters in Cal Miskaad mountain vary in Bari, Puntland area, Somalia, in January 2025 (File: Feisal Omar/Reuters)
Al-Shabab good points
Some analysts recommend that another excuse for the uptick in US strikes might be al-Shabab’s unprecedented counteroffensive this 12 months. In it, the armed group reversed a lot of the Somali authorities’s territorial good points and seized dozens of cities and villages within the Center Shabelle area of the semi-autonomous Hirshabelle state – the house base of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Complicating issues additional is that in this counteroffensive, al-Shabab was capable of advance on the capital and arrange checkpoints on major roads main out and in of Mogadishu. This exhibits not solely the deep structural weak spot throughout the Somali safety forces but in addition the resilience of the armed group as they inched nearer to the seat of energy in Mogadishu, specialists say.
“These (current US strikes) seem to narrate extra carefully to circumstances on the battlefield – and specifically, the perceived menace from an al-Shabab offensive that has reversed a number of the good points of prior Somali authorities offensives,” mentioned David Sterman, the deputy director of the Future Safety programme at New America.
“There may be different components, together with a higher curiosity in focusing on senior al-Shabab leaders,” he added.
Because the Trump administration continues its bombing marketing campaign, some argue this may doubtless solely empower the identical armed teams it claims to be preventing.
“The present drone diplomacy would proceed to assist al-Shabab. These assaults kill civilians, destroy properties and livestock. Ensuing grievances are utilised by armed teams that benefit from these sentiments,” mentioned Arman, the Somali analyst, who additionally famous a “lack of a complete US-Somalia coverage that’s based mostly on a strategic partnership that retains the curiosity of each international locations at coronary heart”.
“It’s silly to assume that every one issues might be solved with a hammer,” he added, referring to drones and navy would possibly.
Civilian deaths, ‘lack of accountability’
Throughout Trump’s first time period as president, rights teams and media retailers alike reported quite a few civilian casualties from US strikes on Somalia. This was additional compounded when AFRICOM admitted that civilians died in strikes it carried out.
The state of affairs hit its climax in 2019 when Amnesty Worldwide accused the US of committing “potential battle crimes” in Somalia on account of its drone battle. Not one of the victims of US drone strikes had been ever compensated regardless of requires accountability by rights teams and US lawmakers.
“The constant lack of accountability for civilian victims of US air strikes, significantly below the earlier (Trump) administration, speaks volumes. It reveals a profound lack of transparency that’s deeply regarding,” mentioned Eva Buzo, the manager director of Victims Advocacy Worldwide, an organisation searching for accountability for victims of human rights abuses in battle zones throughout the globe.
“The US acknowledges hurt to civilians and has allotted funds but continues to keep away from making these essential funds,” she mentioned, including that what’s wanted is willingness to “genuinely talk with impacted communities, to higher perceive the true penalties drone strikes have on their lives, and what may be finished to acknowledge this affect tangibly”.
In the meantime, including to the complexity within the battle house in Somalia is that teams like al-Shabab typically dwell and function among the many civilian inhabitants. This supplies concealment but in addition means these at battle with the armed teams hardly ever differentiate between civilians and fighters when placing targets.
US strikes typically depend on patchy human intelligence within the rural countryside the place al-Shabab is most current and the place clan rivalries, casual economies and shifting loyalties are all components that are usually ignored by the US. Consultants say this not solely complicates correct focusing on but in addition will increase the prospect of harming non-combatants.
Whereas there isn’t an official dying toll from US strikes, the years of assaults are believed to have killed anyplace from 33 to 167 civilians in Somalia, in response to separate tallies by New America and the nonprofit battle watchdog, Airway.
These civilian deaths from US air strikes erode US credibility within the area and feed into the narrative that armed teams like al-Shabab thrive on: one in every of overseas aggression and Somali betrayal, mentioned Norman of the Danish Institute.
“These incidents don’t simply trigger resentment; they provide propaganda gold. When civilians are killed and even simply displaced, al-Shabab exploits the aftermath. They transfer rapidly to border themselves as defenders of Somali lives and sovereignty in opposition to a overseas aggressor and a weak federal authorities,” he mentioned.
“Drone strikes with out accountability can really create the circumstances for the very insurgencies they’re meant to get rid of to thrive,” he added.
A common view exhibits the scene of an explosion by a suspected member of al Qaeda-linked al-Shabab, at a store promoting tea close to a safety checkpoint on a street resulting in the parliament and the president’s workplace, in Mogadishu, Somalia, in September 2023 (File: Feisal Omar/Reuters)
Including gasoline to the fireplace?
After practically 20 years of US aerial bombardment, many analysts agree that air strikes alone can’t defeat an armed motion embedded within the cloth of Somali society, its social networks and those that thrive off consecutive overseas interventions. This makes the prospects of taming these armed teams, not to mention defeating them, tough.
“There are attention-grabbing parallels to Afghanistan; native forces battle to carry territory, US strikes fill the vacuum briefly, however the long-term trajectory stays bleak. Airpower can suppress, but it surely doesn’t rework,” mentioned Norman.
“That hole between US rhetoric and Somali actuality is exactly the place al-Shabab thrives. The group actively weaponises these moments, portraying itself as the one actor prepared to face up for Somali lives.
“On this sense, the lack of legitimacy shouldn’t be summary; it shapes native choices, fuels recruitment, and weakens prospects for real partnership between Somali civilians and worldwide actors.”
If the Trump administration continues its aerial bombardment of Somalia, analysts say it is going to solely add gasoline to the fireplace by empowering the identical foe it claims to be preventing. On the identical time, they are saying, the price of drones and missiles to struggle a boogeyman midway throughout the globe is a waste of US taxpayer cash.
Consultants on US navy and counterterrorism insurance policies say the chance of a navy answer to armed teams in Somalia is slim.
“It’s unlikely that the US and its Somali companions can absolutely get rid of al-Shabab given its demonstration of resilience over time, and doing so would require a unique strategy than what these strikes seem like. IS-Somalia doesn’t have fairly the identical file of resilience,” mentioned Sterman, the New America deputy director.
“There’s, in fact, the query of what defeat and destruction really means for a non-state group,” he famous.
“That mentioned, US aims are doubtless extra restricted than the defeat or destruction of those teams – focusing (extra) on containment or the elimination of particular capabilities or community connections.”
Within the meantime, what’s for certain, specialists say, is that the extra the US leans on drones with out investing in native legitimacy and supporting grassroots reconciliation, the extra teams like al-Shabab and IS-Somalia will thrive and develop amongst a brand new era of disenfranchised Somalis.
