Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber is slated totally free company on the finish of this season. Lately, a few totally different writers have floated a tough $100MM determine as a chance for his subsequent contract. On Could sixth, Jeff Passan of ESPN revealed a column the place he described Schwarber attending to $25MM yearly over a four-year deal as “eminently affordable.” A few week later, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote that Schwarber’s latest efficiency would possibly “result in the $100 million contract” which beforehand eluded him.
Whereas Passan did conclude that 9 figures is “affordable” for Schwarber, he’s conscious that it might set a brand new precedent. He writes that “a chosen hitter who’s going to be 33 subsequent Opening Day getting a nine-figure deal” could be an “outlier” however believes that Schwarber is himself an outlier and deserving of a contract that breaks the mould.
This publish will dig in on these present precedents to see how far Schwarber must push the market as a way to hit the century mark, with the assistance of MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.
This picture (hyperlink for app customers) reveals all of the free agent offers for designated hitters going again nearly 20 years, sorted by whole assure. As you possibly can see, designated hitters haven’t been paid $25MM yearly, nor have any obtained a $100MM assure.
Shohei Ohtani is out on an island right here, for apparent causes. He’s a unicorn by way of on-field skill as a two-way participant and his worldwide stardom is unparalleled. Nobody else has topped $20MM yearly. Anthony Santander got here near the century mark by way of whole sticker value however his $92.5MM deal had notable deferrals which pushed the web current worth nearer to the $70MM vary. He’s additionally not a strict DH, having logged over 1,000 innings within the outfield for the Orioles final yr.
Subsequent on the record is Schwarber himself. The final time he hit the open market, he was going into his age-29 season, but he might solely get $79MM over 4 years, an AAV just below $20MM. Inflation normally pushes the market ahead however considerably related gamers like Joc Pederson and Santander might solely get to $18.5MM yearly in the latest offseason.
Schwarber is best than these guys, however let’s additionally take a look at the age query. Listed below are all free agent contracts for hitters beginning at age-33 or older, no matter place.
On this picture (hyperlink for app customers), we are able to see that no free-agent hitter has obtained a $100MM assure starting at age 33, nor have any secured a $25MM annual wage starting at that age. One other path to $100MM could be to get $20MM yearly over 5 years. However as proven in that picture, there have been no latest offers of that size for gamers on this age class.
Josh Donaldson did come near the $25MM AAV and $100MM whole. However on the time of that deal, he was nonetheless an above-average third baseman. He had simply hit 37 dwelling runs for Atlanta whereas being credited with ten Defensive Runs Saved and 9 Outs Above Common. He continued enjoying nicely by way of the primary half of that deal however was subpar on the plate within the closing two years.
As for Starling Martehis 2021 season noticed him publish a 132 wRC+, play over 1,000 innings within the outfield, and steal 47 bases in simply 120 video games. Nonetheless, he was restricted to 4 years and an AAV just below $20MM.
So, designated hitters don’t get $100MM contracts. Nor do gamers pushing into their mid-30s. For Schwarber to get $100MM as a 33-year-old DH, some staff must take into account him to be value considerably greater than another earlier participant in these classes. The truth is, 33-year-old Schwarber must be valued larger than 29-year-old Schwarber.
What Schwarber has working for him is that he has discovered a brand new gear on the plate since coming to Philadelphia. Since signing that take care of the Phils, he has hit 148 dwelling runs. He has drawn walks at a 15.4% clip. His 28.7% strikeout fee is excessive however he’s all the time been in that vary. General, he has a .224/.348/.496 line and 131 wRC+ for the Phillies. Solely Aaron Choose and Ohtani have hit extra dwelling runs in that point. Choose and Juan Soto are the one guys forward of him by way of stroll fee, whereas the wRC+ quantity is eleventh for hitters with at the least 2,000 plate appearances in that span. This yr, Schwarber’s even above his personal tempo, with 17 dwelling runs already, a .253/.390/.573 line and 164 wRC+.
Previous to coming to Philadelphia, he had been just a few notches beneath that. From 2017 to 2019, he slashed .234/.337/.492 for a 113 wRC+ with the Cubs. His 12.9% stroll fee was good however just a few ticks beneath what the tempo he has subsequently managed in Philly. Equally, he hit 94 dwelling runs over these three seasons, a tempo of simply over 30 yearly. That’s excellent, however he’s pushed that as much as an nearly 45-homer annual tempo with the Phils.
He then had a dip within the shortened 2020 marketing campaign. He did hit 11 dwelling runs however his .188/.308/.393 line led to a 91 wRC+. The Cubs might have retained him for 2021 with a projected arbitration wage within the $8-10MM vary, however they determined to maneuver on as a substitute. He bounced again tremendously in 2021, splitting his time between the Nationals and Crimson Sox. He signed a $10MM take care of Washington and was traded to Boston on the deadline. He hit 32 dwelling runs and put up a .266/.374/.554 line for a 145 wRC+.
It’s doable that his tough 2020 exhibiting was nonetheless recent within the minds of baseball resolution makers and hampered his market the final time he was a free agent. Since then, he has proven himself to be extremely dependable on the plate, erasing the reminiscence of his non-tender.
The query now’s whether or not groups will suppose he can maintain it going. When he signed his final contract, he was nonetheless a considerably viable fielder. He has by no means been good in left area however nonetheless was a daily on the market previous to signing with the Phils and received roughly 1,000 innings on the grass in each 2022 and 2023. He has develop into nearly solely a DH extra lately, with simply 41 innings within the area in 2024 and 36 up to now in 2025. Which means he’ll must maintain hitting to supply any worth.
Even essentially the most gifted gamers are topic to declining efficiency of their mid-30s. Donaldson and Marte have been performing nicely on either side of the ball of their platform years, however Marte has basically been a replacement-level participant beginning along with his age-34 season. Donaldson’s bat fell beneath league common in his age-36 marketing campaign. José Abreu was the A.L. MVP in his age-33 season however was unplayable by his age-36 season.
That might depart Schwarber with just a few good years to go. Maybe not enjoying the sphere will assist him to gracefully descend that getting old curve. Taking a look at a number of the names above, Edwin Encarnación had 34 dwelling runs and a 130 wRC+ in his age-36 season. Victor Martinez had 32 bombs and a 168 wRC+ in his age-35 marketing campaign. He adopted that up with a nightmare season, 11 homers and a 77 wRC+, however was in a position to bounce again with a stable marketing campaign on the age of 37 that options 27 lengthy balls and a 120 wRC+.
Santander simply hit 44 dwelling runs final yr and nonetheless couldn’t get to 9 figures, despite the fact that he was going into his age-30 season. Nonetheless, he has by no means had robust stroll charges, so his total offensive profile is lower than Schwarber’s. Even with these bombs, he solely had a 129 wRC+ final yr, his greatest such mark in a full season. Schwarber’s common manufacturing over three-plus years in Philadelphia has been higher than that, with an enormous spike right here in 2025.
Pederson put up a 151 wRC+ final yr however was largely shielded from lefties. He has a .209/.305/.328 line and 78 wRC+ in opposition to southpaws in his profession. Schwarber had some platoon points earlier in his profession however appears to have put these behind him. On the time of signing his take care of the Phillies, he had a .214/.324/.361 line and 86 wRC+ with out the platoon benefit. Since coming to Philly, he has a .235/.357/.468 line and 130 wRC+. Amazingly, his wRC+ in opposition to lefties has been rising yr over yr: 95 in 2022, then 107 in 2023, 153 final yr and a stunning 223 up to now in 2025. That might definitely be an argument for Schwarber doing higher than he did on his final deal.
It’s additionally maybe value noting that decreasing the age cut-off by one yr opens up one other fascinating comp from latest years. Whereas Donaldson’s $92MM deal is the highest mark for a 33-year-old, Freddie Freeman received a six-year $162MM deal going into his age-32 marketing campaign. He’s a greater total hitter than Schwarber with a profession 143 wRC+. He’s additionally a primary baseman and never restricted to the DH spot. These elements and the one-year age distinction are arguments for Schwarber coming in beneath Freeman, nevertheless it’s doable for him to take action and hit the century mark.
One other issue to think about is the qualifying provide, as Schwarber has by no means obtained one. Since he was traded in 2021, he wasn’t eligible to get a QO previous to signing with the Phils. If he sticks in Philadelphia all season lengthy and retains producing like this, they might absolutely situation him one, which might in all probability be within the vary of $22MM or so.
Would a staff be keen to make a four-year, nine-figure wager on a 33-year-old DH and quit a draft choose within the course of? It’s by no means occurred earlier than. Time will inform if Schwarber is exclusive sufficient to set some new benchmarks.
Picture courtesy of Invoice Streicher, Imagn Photographs
