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Each time I hear the identify Robbie Ray, I take into consideration the bar scene from 2002’s Candy House Alabama, the place Reese Witherspoon’s character Melanie drunkenly stumbles as much as an outdated pal as he’s about to aim a pool shot. By way of a match of giggles she says, “Bobby Ray! Don’t blow this one, OK?”
Most just lately, this occurred once I learn that Robbie Ray had been named to the Nationwide League All-Star staff. As a result of Robbie Ray has not been blowing it this season. In truth, he’s been posting numbers not far off the tempo from his 2021 Cy Younger season. However regardless of the Cy Younger on his résumé, I most likely take into consideration Bobby Ray extra typically than Robbie Ray, as a result of Robbie adopted up his award-winning efficiency with a merely common 2022, after which spent a lot of 2023 and 2024 on the IL. Total, Ray’s profession has been a little bit of an up-and-down journey, and if we’re evaluating profession arcs to character arcs, Ray’s is extra akin to Melanie’s than Bobby Ray’s, regardless of the same identify.
Dropping in on Ray’s 2021 season is roughly equal to the place we drop in on Melanie Carmichael at first of Candy House Alabama. Melanie (whose actual final identify is Smooter, however she selected to undertake a extra refined persona after leaving Alabama for the massive metropolis) is a clothier contemporary off a profitable debut at New York Style Week and newly engaged to the mayor’s son (Patrick Dempsey). Melanie has collected profession accolades and social standing, simply as Ray spent his 2021 season reeling in award votes and leveling up his standing as a beginning pitcher.
Then, for the time being when each Ray and Carmichael appear to have it made, issues start to backslide. However earlier than we get to that, let’s take a more in-depth take a look at what led to that newfound success.
In 2021, Ray was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his four-seamer and slider a mixed 90% of the time. The 2-pitch combine labored, partially, as a result of his slider generated whiffs at a forty five.5% clip (nineteenth greatest amongst all particular person pitch choices thrown not less than 400 instances that 12 months), which contributed to his 32.1% strikeout fee (fourth greatest amongst all certified pitchers). Hitters might have averted swinging and lacking by not providing on the pitch within the first place, however Ray’s fastball (each then and now) spins on the same axis and at the same fee as his slider, making it difficult for a hitter to guess which pitch is coming, regardless of the favorable 50/50 odds. Layer on Ray’s lefty, crossfire supply from the primary base aspect of the rubber and it turns into clear that his seemingly easy strategy is deceptively complicated.
Likewise, Melanie Carmichael constructed her success on the again of a two-pitch combo — her fastball: a profitable trend line, and her slider: a budding romance. However for as a lot success as each Ray and Carmichael have had, when working below a two-pronged strategy, if both prong begins to weaken, issues can spin out fairly shortly. For Melanie, her current engagement has an asterisk on it as a result of she uncared for to inform her fiancé that she’s already married to her childhood sweetheart, Jake. As such, Melanie should sojourn again to Pigeon Creek, Alabama to safe a divorce. In the meantime, Ray enters free company following 2021 and lands in Seattle, which isn’t his hometown, however that’s OK as a result of that’s not the place we’re going with this metaphor anyway. In Melanie’s story, she’s just lately engaged, committing so as to add a brand new relationship to her life that may have knock-on results on all her different relationships as properly. Upon arriving in Seattle, Ray commits to including a sinker to his life, which may have knock-on results on all his different pitches.
Simply as Melanie and her fiancé Andrew (who’s poised to observe his mom into politics) made sense on paper as an up-and-coming New York energy couple, it made sense on paper for Ray so as to add a sinker to his arsenal. And really, Ray’s dedication to the pitch was extra of a re-commitment, as he threw a sinker on and off early in his massive league profession. In idea, a fastball with downward motion ought to complement the rising motion of his four-seamer and assist maintain right-handed hitters from sitting on the four-seam. As a southpaw, standing on the primary base aspect of the rubber and stepping throughout his physique even farther in that route as he delivers the pitch, Ray makes it virtually inconceivable for a left-handed hitter to choose up the ball out of his hand, however righties have a significantly better view of the pitch’s total trajectory, making a platoon benefit. Taking a look at Ray’s pitch utilization through the years, it’s clear he’s all the time been looking for one thing with downward chunk that he can throw on the outer half to righties with out worrying about lacking over the center of the plate (which is the danger related to throwing his slider on the outer half). In 2015 and 2016 it was the sinker, in 2017 and 2018 it was a curveball, in 2019 and 2020 it was each, in 2021 it was neither. He additionally dabbled with a changeup, however by no means threw it greater than 10% of the time. Ray has been in quest of a 3rd pitch to spherical out his arsenal for his total profession.
In protection of Ray’s sinker, it had all of the attributes a pitcher is on the lookout for, similar to Andrew had all of the attributes a younger lady searches for in a fiancé. I’m undecided Ray’s sinker ever had the potential to earn a nickname like McDreamy, the way in which Patrick Dempsey later did in Gray’s Anatomy, however McDreamy was additionally a mind surgeon, whereas Andrew was merely an aspiring politician. Likewise, Ray’s sinker was extra aspiring politician than mind surgeon, the kind that polls properly however by no means truly wins a significant election. Ray’s sinker had the drop and added arm-side run to differentiate it from his four-seamer; it seemed good on a motion plot, however the outcomes have been sizzling rubbish on a moist, New York day — the type of factor a politician guarantees to maintain, however by no means does. The pitch yielded a wOBA over .400 in 2022. It did stop hitters from doing fairly as a lot injury on Ray’s four-seamer, however not sufficient to justify devoting 20% of his pitches to an providing with such poor outcomes.
Finally, Melanie realizes that her perfect-on-paper fiancé isn’t the best match for her, and that her devotion to him harm a few of her different relationships. Not solely did it take time away from sure folks in her life (the identical approach throwing a sinker severely ate into Ray’s four-seam utilization), it additionally modified the way in which she carried herself in interactions with others (see the judgmental tone she brings to the oft-quoted “You’ve acquired a child. In a bar,” scene).
In the meantime, incorporating a sinker into his repertoire modified the way in which Robbie Ray interacted along with his slider. In 2021, Ray paired four-seamers up within the zone with sliders down and in to righties (see the primary picture under), getting them to both chase pitches out of the zone or make weak contact on pitches within the zone. However the addition of the sinker, thrown on the outer half to right-handed batters, incentivized him to intention his slider extra on the outer half as properly (see the second picture under). Mimicking the placement and downward motion of the sinker, however with out the horizontal break, ought to have saved hitters off-balance even additional when mixed with the sinker’s capacity to disguise the four-seamer. Nonetheless, we’ve already mentioned the risks of lacking your goal with a slider. As such, the pitch, although nonetheless superb general, acquired knocked round a bit extra (.349 slugging proportion in 2022 in comparison with .321 the 12 months prior). Maybe it could have been definitely worth the trade-off if the sinker had carried out properly, however we already know the way that turned out.
Supply: Baseball Savant
Supply: Baseball Savant
Skipping over 2023 and 2024, when Ray pitched simply 34 innings complete on account of a smattering of accidents, that brings us to the fortunately ever after (not less than in the intervening time) right here in 2025; Ray is now a San Francisco Big and to date has pitched to an ERA- of 73 and ranks twelfth general in innings pitched. The highest-line numbers for Ray this season rival these of his Cy Younger 12 months in 2021, however the form of his success is kind of completely different. Although the sinker is gone, Ray deserted neither the idea, nor the hope {that a} pitch he’s labored on for years would possibly abruptly break by way of. As an alternative, he’s re-working the technique by reviving the changeup he was throwing in 2015 and 2016 together with the 2017 to 2018 version of his knuckle curveball. He’s tinkered with each pitches through the years, resulting in variations with barely completely different motion profiles that by no means fairly labored. However now he’s again to the OG variations they usually’re serving him properly sufficient that he’s utilizing them at round a 14% clip every. So why did he abandon them within the first place?
For a similar cause Melanie Smooter moved to New York and have become Melanie Carmichael. She wanted to outline herself away from the all-consuming tradition and affect of a small city. When she ultimately returns to Alabama, she sees her dwelling city with a brand new perspective (although it does take her a minute to shake that sense of New York superiority). She remembers, or maybe acknowledges for the primary time, that there are issues to love about it. She couldn’t see it earlier than as a result of she felt trapped by the way in which the city and everybody in it was making an attempt to outline her.
Which is to say, Ray’s changeup and curveball have been by no means actually the difficulty, although he might have felt a specific amount of animosity towards them. Fairly, he wanted to go north and spend a while creating and defining the fastball and slider elements of his pitching identification earlier than he might totally respect what the changeup and curveball of his previous might provide him within the current.
Contemplate Ray’s 2015 motion plot. The changeup dots are a part of a messy muddle along with his four-seamer and a previous try at a sinker. Except for the decrease velocity, there’s not a lot to delineate the changeup from his different choices.
Supply: Baseball Savant
Now take a look at Ray’s 2018 motion plot, that includes a curveball similar to the one he’s throwing this season. It tucks itself in proper up below his slider and is available in simply a few ticks slower, at the same spin fee and on a mirrored spin axis. Except for throwing them to barely completely different areas, the 2 pitches have been too just like work as distinct choices.
Supply: Baseball Savant
Evaluating the motion plots above to this 12 months’s version illustrates what’s completely different this time round. The changeup and curveball dots haven’t actually moved. As an alternative, Ray is getting extra rise on his fastball, which in flip has translated to much less drop on his slider. Evaluating these modifications in a vacuum, including rise to a four-seam fastball is usually a superb factor, whereas a slider with much less drop feels counterintuitive (however breaking balls are much less formulaic, so modifications in motion are more durable to categorise as objectively good or unhealthy). However what’s essential for Ray is that these modifications create separation from his secondary choices, permitting all 4 pitches to work higher collectively.
Supply: Baseball Savant
Although Ray was deserving of his Cy Younger in 2021, his success felt unstable as a result of inherent fragility of a two-pitch combine. Significantly so due to the way it left him susceptible to right-handed hitters on days the place perhaps his fastball was a little bit extra hittable or his slider wasn’t getting sufficient swing and miss. And that’s precisely the place the changeup and curveball are available in, as these pitches are instruments he’s now utilizing primarily towards righties. He throws the changeup on the backside of the zone, taking part in it off of his four-seamer on the prime of the zone. Whereas the knuckle curve offers him an possibility on the outer half of the zone in order that he doesn’t must threat hanging a slider over the center of the plate, and as a substitute he can return to spamming the slider in on the ft of right-handers, the place it’s extra more likely to induce whiffs. The distinction in strategy reveals up within the platoon splits. In prior years towards Ray, right-handed hitters have posted a wOBA 40 to 60 factors greater than lefties. This 12 months, the distinction is simply 26 factors, the smallest hole in efficiency since 2017 (which can be the final time Ray’s curveball was getting respectable separation from his slider).
Provided that Ray just isn’t — and by no means has been — an influence pitcher with overwhelming stuff, as a substitute counting on a misleading supply and pitches that work properly as an ensemble, discovering extra pitches so as to add to his bag makes the success he’s having this 12 months really feel much less like he’s squeaking through the use of a thinly constructed persona and extra like he’s settled into his identification as a pitcher.
By the top of Candy House Alabama, Melanie Smooter is again, however Melanie Carmichael lives on alongside her. In any case, she will’t precisely re-name her complete trend line. However she has discovered a solution to merge the success she present in New York with the items of Alabama that have been all the time there for her and that she might by no means fairly go away behind. Likewise, 2021 Robbie Ray continues to be there, relying closely on a fastball/slider combo and pairing an excessive cross-body supply with a north-south strategy, however 2025 Robbie Ray has added some outdated mates to the arsenal, making for probably the most full model of himself so far.
