Apple Intelligence would not promote iPhones
Even with Apple Intelligence instruments and a recent search for iOS, most iPhone upgrades occur when the previous telephone breaks down, not when Apple ships one thing new.
Apple’s WWDC 2025 was full of bulletins. The corporate unveiled a renumbered iOS, and a brand new design language.
Whereas it did not say that a lot about it at WWDC, Apple’s making a giant push into synthetic intelligence with Apple Intelligence.
However none of it’s more likely to transfer the needle a lot on iPhone gross sales.
The reason being easy — the iPhone is not a breakthrough system. It is a mature product with a protracted improve cycle.
Most customers are changing their telephones due to {hardware} failures, not flashy options like AI.
{Hardware} fatigue nonetheless drives iPhone upgrades
Shopper Intelligence Analysis Companions (CIRP) has been wanting at iPhone buying knowledge. The agency’s newest report, overlaying the 12-month interval ending March 2025, reveals that 67% of iPhone consumers changed their units due to some type of degradation or failure.
That features 40% who upgraded due to slower efficiency, battery points, or display harm. One other 27% have been compelled to switch a telephone that was misplaced, stolen, or not purposeful.
Why iPhone customers changed their telephones within the yr ending March 2025
Solely 13% of consumers cited new options like higher cameras, improved shows, or quicker efficiency as the explanation for upgrading. And fewer than 10% talked about issues like switching carriers, making the most of promotions, or handing a telephone all the way down to another person.
A mature market with incremental innovation
CIRP asks the query, “Will AI Push Prospects to New iPhones?”
The reply is a convincing “no” and it has been for a few decade, though some analysts thought in any other case. Apple Intelligence by title hasn’t been round for that lengthy.
However Apple’s machine studying efforts have not been a motive to improve since Siri’s introduction.
Earlier than the COVID-19 pandemic, most iPhone customers held onto their units for about three years. That regular sample shifted in 2021, when aggressive trade-in presents and expanded service subsidies led to a brief surge in earlier upgrades.
Throughout that interval, extra customers changed their telephones inside two years, motivated by monetary incentives fairly than necessity. However by 2023, the development reversed.
The slower alternative development is the truth of smartphones in present instances
Customers started holding onto their telephones longer once more, reflecting each improved system sturdiness and financial warning. Newer knowledge reveals a modest swing again towards shorter improve cycles.
In late 2024, a rising share of consumers at 36% had upgraded inside two years, up from 31% the yr earlier than. Whereas the bulk nonetheless change their telephones attributable to {hardware} failure, promotions and financing offers are quietly influencing conduct.
The shift means that affordability and comfort can speed up the choice to improve, even in a mature market.
The slower alternative development is the truth of smartphones in present instances. The iPhone, like most flagship telephones, has reached a stage of maturity the place every annual replace is extra about refinement than reinvention.
The times when a brand new digital camera sensor or chip might immediate a mass wave of early upgrades are over.
Apple’s embrace of synthetic intelligence suits into this sample. Apple Intelligence might assist hold the platform present and aggressive. Nonetheless, individuals aren’t flocking to improve due to it.
Most individuals will expertise these options solely after they finally purchase a brand new telephone, not as a result of they’re compelled to take action.
Superior AI options will help Apple retain loyalty, defend market share, and create worth for these on newer fashions. However in a saturated market with long-lasting {hardware} and excessive costs, consumer conduct is formed by necessity.
