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Kristian Campbell has come a great distance in a short while. Lower than two years after being drafted by the Crimson Sox out of Georgia Tech, with simply 137 minor league video games below his belt, he positioned seventh on our High 100 Prospects record in February, and gained the beginning second base job throughout spring coaching. Now, with only a week of main league service time below his belt, Campbell has agreed to an eight-year, $60 million extension that features a pair of group choices and escalator clauses that may push the contract’s worth previous the $100 million mark. It’s a deal that gives each safety for Campbell and a few alternative for development, although it’s not onerous to note the rather more profitable extension that the Padres introduced for Jackson Merrill on Wednesday as nicely and ponder whether Campbell ought to have waited. Both method, the Crimson Sox have ensured that one other proficient teenager shall be a part of their basis within the coming years.
The 22-year-old Campbell is raking at a .400/.500/.750 (258 wRC+) clip via the primary week of his main league profession. To date, 5 of his eight hits have been for further bases, together with a 431-foot homer off the Rangers’ Jacob Webb on Saturday. He celebrated the information of his extension on Wednesday evening with a pair of opposite-field doubles off Orioles starter Zach Eflin.
Whereas Campbell was a co-favorite to win AL Rookie of the 12 months honors in our annual workers ballot, no person expects him to proceed at this breakneck tempo. Nonetheless, buzz about an extension had been circulating in latest days, and whereas this transfer isn’t almost as massive because the six-year, $170 million extension the Crimson Sox introduced on Monday for lefty Garrett Crochetthe group clearly views Campbell as an vital piece of its future.
The Crimson Sox drafted Campbell with a fourth-round aggressive stability choose in 2023. He was an age-eligible redshirt freshman with one yr of school expertise on the time, an excellent slash-and-dash leadoff man (to make use of Eric Longenhagen’s time period) who was some of the troublesome gamers to strike out in all of Division I (7.8%). Since signing for a $492,700 bonus, he hasn’t stayed in a single place for lengthy; after enjoying eight video games for the Crimson Sox’s Florida Complicated League squad, he completed the 2023 season with 14 video games at Excessive-A Greenville, returned there for 40 video games to start out ’24, adopted by 56 video games at Double-A Portland and 19 at Triple-A Worcester. At these three stops final yr, he slashed .330/.439/.558 with 20 homers and 24 steals, incomes Baseball America Minor League Participant of the 12 months honors and a number of different accolades. His 180 wRC+ was the best of all gamers with not less than 250 plate appearances within the affiliated minors final season.
As you would possibly surmise from these spectacular numbers, Campbell has added sufficient bash to his slash-and-dash to alter his profile. Particularly, his prospect grade has risen from 45+ FV to 60 FV since final July. From Longenhagen’s more moderen writeup:
The Crimson Sox have basically made him right into a Jaren Duran sequel, taking one other speedy, contact-oriented second baseman and making refined modifications to his swing and strategy, leading to a seismic shift to his offensive output, which now contains massive energy.
Campbell is now swinging with damage-seeking intent and has been in a position to elevate the ball extra (three levels of launch in 2023, 9 levels in 2024). The ability he’s producing together with his new fashion is stunning. His high-end exit velocities at the moment are comfortably plus on the massive league scale (he hit a ball 114 mph final yr), and he’s doing enormous injury to all fields.
Longenhagen’s solely actual space of concern relating to the 6-foot-3, 191-pound Campbell is his protection, which he graded as 30/40 (current/future) together with his arm a 40, and famous that his place may very well be a query. A pair different retailers that additionally ranked Campbell amongst this yr’s high 10 prospects positioned 50 grades on each his protection and his arm, and one other one noticed him as a possible plus defender on the keystone, so it’s price noting that there’s a variety of opinion on the topic.
Longenhagen famous that whereas Campbell has the pace for heart area, he’s very uncooked there, with questionable reads, particularly on balls in entrance of him. In Duran and CEDDANNE RAFAELAthe group already has two gamers greater than able to manning the center pasture and is prone to push no. 2 prospect Roman Anthony — who has begun this season at Triple-A Worcester and will attain Boston this summer season — to a nook.
As I famous a few weeks in the past, the group’s excessive regard for Campbell helps to clarify this spring’s drama in regards to the alignment of the infield. Boston signed free agent Alex Bregman — the reigning AL Gold Glove winner at third base — to a three-year, $120 million deal in mid-February regardless of the presence of incumbent Rafael Deverswho’s getting into the second season of his 10-year, $313.5 million extension. Throughout the pursuit of Bregman, supervisor Alex Cora had spoken of envisioning him as a second baseman when he served as an Astros coach, and the broadly held assumption throughout the trade was that the newcomer would swap to the keystone.
That Devers was shut down final September as a result of issues with each shoulders was one think about Boston’s protecting Bregman on the sizzling nook regardless of the incumbent’s public protestationshowever the group’s glut of younger expertise at second base was one other. Campbell needed to beat out Vaughn Grissom, David Hamiltonand Marcelo Mayer (no. 57 on our High 100) to earn the second base job, which he did regardless of beginning slowly in spring coaching, with an 0-for-11 that includes eight strikeouts and a few shakiness afield. That the Crimson Sox confirmed such persistence with Campbell regardless of such depth, and even with the blowback from Devers, was a robust signal of their religion in his readiness.
That stated, Campbell isn’t strictly a second baseman, not less than not but. On Saturday, Hamilton began at second, bumping Campbell to left area, with Duran shifting from left to heart, sending Rafaela — usually the starter there however the weakest hitter of the bunch — to the bench; he made a late-inning look in heart after Duran moved to proper inside a sequence of late-inning strikes.
Turning to the extension, Campbell will get a $2 million signing bonus in addition to a $1 million wage for this yr (a bump from the $760,000 minimal he was scheduled to make). He’ll then earn $2 million subsequent yr, $3 million in 2027, and $4 million in ’28, which might have been his first yr of arbitration eligibility. From there his wage bumps to $6 million in 2029 and $9 million in ’30, which might have been his closing yr earlier than changing into eligible totally free company, and to $13 million and $16 million for what would have been his first two years of free agent eligibility, with membership choices of $19 million (with a $4 million buyout) for 2033 and $21 million (no buyout) for ’34. If each choices are exercised, that comes out to $96 million for 10 years.
These are simply base salaries. Campbell additionally has escalator clauses that may elevate his subsequent yr’s wage by as a lot as $2 million: $200,000 for All-Star choice, $250,000 for ending wherever from sixth via tenth within the MVP voting, $500,000 for fourth or fifth, $1 million for second or third, and $2 million for successful the award.
As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper famousthe Crimson Sox stay eligible to qualify for the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) choose as a result of they waited till after Campbell’s debut to increase him. If he had been to win Rookie of the 12 months honors, he’d earn them a choose on the finish of the primary spherical of subsequent yr’s draft, and likewise if he had been to complete among the many high three in MVP voting anytime from 2025–27. Had the Sox prolonged him earlier than his debut, because the Brewers did with Jackson Chourio final yr, they wouldn’t have been in a position to qualify.
Whereas Crochet’s extension is larger than the free agent contracts of all however a handful of the highest-paid beginning pitchers, Campbell’s is far decrease given his age and expertise degree. Nonetheless, it’s a bigger deal than both of the opposite two extensions the group has accomplished since Craig Breslow took over as chief baseball officer in October 2023, surpassing these of each Rafaela (eight years, $50 million, with one membership possibility) and righty Brayan Bello (six years, $55 million, additionally with one membership possibility). The latter does have the next common annual worth ($9.17 million vs. $7.5 million).
As for what to anticipate from Campbell, I requested Dan Szymborski to whip up a ZiPS projection. He ran one earlier this yr, when Campbell positioned tenth on the ZiPS High 100 again in February. On the time, Szymborski wrote that Campbell tasks as a very good starter and including, “ZiPS doesn’t suppose his ceiling is as excessive as a few of the guys who rank forward of him on the High 100, however he’s a fairly low-risk prospect.”
With the caveat that this can be a lengthy projection based mostly on a really quick skilled observe file (albeit one augmented by Statcast minor league batted ball knowledge and spring coaching knowledge), right here’s Campbell’s up to date ZiPS projection on the time of the extension:
ZiPS Projection – Kristian Campbell
12 months
Age
AVG
OBP
SLG
PA
H
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
Proj Sal ($M)
2025
23
.261
.346
.420
502
118
13
71
50
120
13
110
2.3
0.8
2026
24
.261
.349
.424
526
123
14
75
54
120
13
112
2.6
0.8
2027
25
.258
.347
.423
546
126
15
79
57
119
13
111
2.7
0.8
2028
26
.256
.346
.425
562
129
16
82
59
118
12
112
2.8
4.4
2029
27
.254
.345
.425
572
130
17
83
61
118
12
111
2.8
8.0
2030
28
.254
.346
.424
573
130
17
83
61
117
11
111
2.8
12.3
2031
29
.254
.345
.423
569
129
17
82
61
116
10
111
2.7
28.0
2032
30
.253
.344
.420
557
126
16
80
59
115
9
110
2.5
26.1
2033
31
.255
.346
.422
557
127
16
80
59
115
9
111
2.5
26.9
2034
32
.254
.345
.418
538
122
15
76
57
112
8
109
2.2
24.6
Not proven there may be ZiPS’ skepticism of Campbell’s protection, which strains up with Longenhagen’s scouting evaluation; he’s about two to 4 runs under common at second base yearly for the above stretch, which places a drag on his WAR. Nonetheless, as his ZiPS High 100 rating underscores, he’s a fairly precious participant, and with a little bit of development, he might be an All-Star to match that 60-FV grade.
The ZiPS valuation for the eight assured years of Campbell’s deal is available in at $81 million, suggesting he could have offered himself a bit quick, however given the error bars on that projection, I don’t suppose this counts as egregious. If he had been three years youthful and had the next ceiling, he might need come nearer to Chourio’s eight-year, $82 million deal, however that’s not the case.
I don’t suppose there’s a lot level in bemoaning Campbell for falling wanting Chourio’s deal or the ZiPS contract projection, however I do suppose one can look to Merrill’s extension for an instance of what might need been. Merrill already has banked a 5.3-WAR season at age 21; I might have picked him as my NL Rookie of the 12 months, forward of Paul scenes given the success of his spring place change and his thriving within the stress of playoff race, and I’m hardly alone. Having established himself as a star within the making, Merrill acquired a deal that ensures him $135 million for 9 years (beginning in 2026, his age-23 season), with incentives and choices that would push the worth to $204 million. Holy cow!
We don’t know whether or not the Crimson Sox would have supplied Campbell a bigger extension down the highway if he’d chosen to attend, however the Crochet extension and previous ones for Devers and Xander Bogaerts (accomplished below the regimes of Chaim Bloom and Dave Dombrowski, respectively) illustrate that the group just isn’t averse to doing so for star-caliber gamers with extra expertise. Nonetheless, it’s robust to fault a 22-year-old for making certain himself generational wealth when he’s nonetheless getting his sea legs within the bigs. If he’s pretty much as good because the Crimson Sox suppose he shall be, he’s acquired greater issues forward of him.
