Brad Mills-Imagn Photographs
The Cubs sit only one sport again of the Brewers within the NL Central, however the two division rivals exist as nearly excellent inverses of each other in terms of on-field efficiency. Chicago ranks second in wRC+ at 117 and fifteenth in ERA- at 98, whereas Milwaukee ranks thirteenth in wRC+ at 102 and fifth in ERA- at 89. Their frequent floor is on protection, the place each groups are high three in defensive worth.
Coming off a sequence loss in opposition to the Brewers and with the commerce deadline bearing down, the Cubs added some depth to their weaker facet of the ball on Wednesday by buying pitcher Michael Soroka from the Nationals. Soroka will probably be a free agent on the finish of this yr, after signing a one-year $9 million greenback cope with the Nats final December. In return, Washington obtained Triple-A outfielder Christian FranklinChicago’s fourth-round choose in 2021, and 18 year-old shortstop Ronny Cruzwhom the Cubs chosen within the third spherical of the 2024 draft.
Coming into this season, the Cubs beginning rotation had Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga sitting on the high, with Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boydand Javier Assad filling the remaining three spots, and Colin Rea able to step in as wanted. The plan appeared cheap sufficient, however aside from Boyd, each starter on the depth chart has struggled with harm, uneven efficiency, or a mixture of each. Steele underwent season-ending elbow surgical procedure in April. Imanaga’s elevated HR/9 from the second half of 2024 adopted him into this season, and he missed most of Might and June with a hamstring pressure. Taillon had additionally been struggling to maintain the ball within the yard previous to hitting the IL on the finish of June with a calf harm. Assad has but to make his season debut, however he has begun a rehab task as he works his manner again from an indirect pressure. Rea’s greatest skill has been availability. He’s logged the staff’s second-most innings behind Boyd, however he’s pitched to a 105 ERA-, putting him barely beneath league common.
Given all of the accidents, the Cubs have additionally relied on an injection of youth to cowl innings. Ben Brown debuted in 2024 and pitched properly in a 55-inning pattern, however his efficiency throughout 88 innings this season has dipped properly beneath common. Rookie Cade Hortonnevertheless, has produced stable outcomes over 68 innings, regardless of his strikeout price shrinking from roughly 30% within the minors to 17% within the majors. As an alternative, he’s retaining the ball on the bottom and letting the protection behind him take it from there.
Now Soroka is becoming a member of the fold, however along with his profession observe report and manufacturing up to now this yr, it’s unclear how precisely he suits into this pitching employees. He made his main league debut in Might of 2018, however since then he’s pitched just one full season, and that was all the way in which again in 2019, when he completed second within the NL Rookie of the 12 months voting and sixth within the Cy Younger race. Shoulder points have haunted him throughout a number of seasons, an achilles surgical procedure took him out for many of 2021 and 2022, and this yr his season was delayed till Might on account of a bicep pressure. Evidently, there’s some harm threat right here. And on condition that Soroka’s velocity has dropped a few ticks through the month of July, maybe there’s extra harm threat than a staff already awash in pitching accidents ought to actually be taking up.
However then once more, it’s additionally solely doable Soroka finishes the season wholesome. Regardless of the diminished velocity, Soroka’s FIP and wOBA allowed in July have been decrease than in some other month this season. It’s additionally common for Soroka’s velocity to fluctuate; the identical factor occurred round this time of yr in his final season with a full workload, when he was the no. 1 pitcher for the Braves. That dip in velocity didn’t correlate with an apparent dip in manufacturing both. So if Soroka does keep wholesome, what is going to his precise pitching appear like?
Soroka has advanced through the years from relying totally on a sinker/slider combo to a four-seamer paired with a slurve. He nonetheless throws the sinker to righties, however he swaps it out for a changeup when he’s dealing with lefties. In de-emphasizing the sinker in favor of the four-seamer, Soroka has sacrificed his excessive groundball price in favor of extra strikeouts. And although strikeouts are good, the trade-off hasn’t truly led to improved run prevention. Now, with the four-seam strategy, any hitter that doesn’t strike out is extra more likely to get some raise on the ball and do some severe injury. And that’s a part of why Soroka is permitting a wOBA of .309 this season, in comparison with a mark of .272 when he was a sinkerballer in 2019. Nevertheless, his anticipated stats this season fairly strongly recommend that his batted ball luck has been fairly poor. Or maybe the protection chargeable for fielding these batted balls has been fairly poor. (The Nationals rank twenty ninth in defensive worth.) Consequently, his xwOBA allowed this season sits at .295, down from .305 in 2019. Evaluating the precise outcomes on Soroka’s four-seamer to the anticipated stats highlights the disparity even additional.
Soroka’s 2025 4-Seam Stats
Stat
Precise
Excpected
BA
.269
.255
SLG
.537
.461
wOBA
.376
.343
Although Soroka has pitched to a 4.87 ERA and 118 ERA- to this point this season, a 4.11 FIP and a slew of anticipated stats clocking in properly beneath his precise numbers depart room for loads of upside over the ultimate months of the season. And attending to pitch in entrance of probably the greatest defenses within the league reasonably than one of many worst is certain to enhance his batted ball luck.
From one perspective it would appear to be the Cubs are including one other shaky starter with harm issues to their steady of shaky starters with harm issues, within the hope that in the event that they put collectively a big sufficient assortment, then not less than three or 4 of them will probably be serviceable and wholesome come October. However from one other perspective, Chicago could have recognized a down-on-his-luck pitcher in line for some optimistic regression.
Whether or not Soroka makes 9 begins for the Cubs down the stretch and pitches to a 3.20 ERA, or he will get pulled early from a sport in August with the dreaded forearm tightness, he’s extra of a depth addition than a significant improve. And given the patchwork precarity of the Cubs rotation, it may actually use an precise improve (like possibly somebody Craig Counsell may confidently hand the ball to in Sport 1 of a playoff sequence). So whereas bringing in Soroka is an effective first step, with out taking extra ones, the Cubs will nonetheless be standing in the course of the road ready to get run over.
As for the gamers heading to the Nationals, Franklin is 25, however he misplaced a season to a torn patellar tendon. Since returning to the sector, he has steadily progressed by means of the Cubs system. Eric Longenhagen’s most up-to-date report on Franklin grades him as a forty five FV with a profile as a fourth outfielder who can play all three positions, with plus protection within the corners. As for his future on the plate, right here’s the breakdown instantly from the report:
He hits along with his toes very shut collectively, and his swing is handsy, geared for low-ball contact, and produces an excessive reverse discipline fly ball tendency. Although Franklin’s palms are authoritative and his hard-hit price (54%) is comfortably plus (it was 41% final yr), he in all probability gained’t truly hit for a lot energy with this swing, besides in opposition to lefties. He’s an OBP-driven fourth outfielder who ought to play a job mashing lefties and upgrading the protection late in video games.
After which there’s Cruz, who’s simply 18, so there’s nonetheless quite a lot of variability in his profile. He left considerably conflicting impressions on the 2024 Draft Mix: He displayed spectacular uncooked energy, particularly given his wiry body, however then landed among the many occasion’s slowest runners. Since then, he has already begun to get stronger and develop extra energy, in line with Longenhagen’s most up-to-date report, which works on to underscore the added energy with batted ball knowledge and elaborate on the remainder of Cruz’s talent set:
Cruz’s peak exit velocity (110 max, 105.5 EV90) and hard-hit price (43%) are all within the ballpark of the key league common already, and he isn’t completed rising. We didn’t know a ton about Cruz’s contact skill getting into the yr as a result of he wasn’t a showcase fixture in highschool, and the timing of the draft and earlier finish of Advanced ball means Cruz didn’t play affiliated professional video games in 2024 after he signed. What we realized this summer time was that Cruz is most snug overlaying the down-and-in portion of the strike zone, and exhibits some skill to get prolonged and canopy the up-and-away quadrant with oppo doubles energy. A looming situation is Cruz’s plate self-discipline. He has poor ball/strike recognition and was swing-happy all summer time. Defensively, Cruz has smooth palms on the grime and sufficient arm for the left facet of the infield, however he’s not a quick-twitch athlete and his lateral vary may deteriorate as his body continues to mature. There’s sizable power-hitting upside right here, but additionally threat that Cruz’s hit device bottoms out due to his swing selections.
Given his present trajectory, Cruz grades out as a 40+ FV.
As a result of Soroka’s contract expires on the finish of this season, the Nats have been by no means going to get an enormous haul in return. They executed a pleasant hedge by getting one participant who’s near massive league prepared (even when his ceiling is comparatively low) and a younger, lottery-ticket sort of participant to dream on. If both participant works out even somewhat bit, it’s a win for Washington — it’s not just like the lack of Soroka can meaningfully make issues worse for the 2025 Nationals.
