11:59
Dan Szymborski: It’s chat time!
12:01
James: Half of the Astros present rotation is principally guys picked up off the scrap heap. Is their efficiency sustainable and do any of them have center rotation potential going ahead?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: That is one thing the Astros are actually good at, although. And actually, a lot of the rotation is simply averageish, which is sustainable. Brown and Valdez being good actually carries the group and there’s no purpose to be suspicious
12:02
Galen: If the Twins resolve to promote items off. What would you count on the marketplace for Buxton and/or Correa to be? Buxton must wave his no commerce, however I believe he would possibly if they’re out of the WC race on the deadline.
12:04
Dan Szymborski: I’d count on Buxton, if truly tradeable, would fetch a great value. Correa’s been type of meh, so I don’t assume the Twins would get a pleasant return in the event that they’re not consuming cash
12:04
Dansby Swansong: Dan, what are the main points with the anticipated lockout after the 2026 season?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: Properly, the house owners are making noise a couple of wage cap, although it stays to be seen whether or not that is simply rhetoric to “concede” later.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: The elemental points for gamers – slower wage progress than MLB’s income progress – stays simply what it was
12:05
Dan Szymborski: The service time video games, not less than, haven’t been typically as apparent as up to now
12:05
War2d2: Hello Dan! I’ve been operating Volpe on the market as my SS in a 5×5 keeper league, however he’s been meh. Correa is on the market off the wire (as a result of he’s been trbl). The factor is, Correa appears to be heating up, and he has the observe report. Would you keep on with Volpe or make the change? I don’t have the roster area to hold each. Thanks!
12:06
Dan Szymborski: In a KEEPER league, I’d in all probability dangle onto Volpe over Correa
12:06
Reynolds Wrap: It’s surprising to me how badly B. Reynolds has performed for the Buccos this yr. Simply dangerous luck or is that this what his profession winding down seems to be like?
12:07
Dan Szymborski: THIS dangerous, it’s surprising. Nevertheless, 2021 was by no means the participant he was, he’s a league-averageish participant.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: However the factor is, this can be a bit too quickly for a cliff to be typical
12:08
Kevin: You lately talked about preseason group projections truly do a greater job projecting the next season’s outcomes than the upcoming season’s outcomes. Why would that be? And wouldn’t that be trigger to make modifications to the mannequin for the upcoming season? Have you ever already finished that?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: As a result of recency bias is large
12:09
Dan Szymborski: And clearly, you wouldn’t predict 2026 utilizing 2025’s preseason projections
12:09
Dan Szymborski: It’s solely fascinating that it’s extra predictive than ACTUAL 2025 knowledge
12:10
Visitor: Out of Vientos, Baty, Mauricio, and Acuna, ought to the odds recommend that not less than one ought to have the ability to cowl 3B for the Mets at a league-average stage for a few years? Or is that this a case of a 4 guys with a 25% likelihood of figuring out not including as much as 100%?
12:10
Dan Szymborski: PIcking out WHO is the difficult half. I’m extra bullish on Vientos than his present offensive numbers, although Baty’s virtually definitely the superior fielder
12:10
Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided the latter two have sufficient likelihood to hit sufficient to actually be believable 3B, however who is aware of
12:10
Visitor: What’s the distinction between Onerous Hit% and Onerous %? FG appears to have two, one is from Baseball Data Options and the opposite appears to be extra often used. Why one over one other?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Statcast makes use of 95 mph. I don’t assume BIS makes use of a vivid line, however I COULD be incorrect
12:12
Dan Szymborski: and actually, the variations aren’t sufficient to actually agonize about
12:12
I’m the Apple: Which non-baseball factor would ZiPS be greatest at?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: Heating my workplace
12:12
I’m the Apple: Which non-baseball factor would Szymborski, Dan be greatest at?
12:12
Dan Szymborski: video video games, piano
12:12
Bob Loblaw: I consider you talked about that you’re an agnostic. Would believing in a simulated actuality problem that contemplating a simulation would have a creator/creators?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I’m agnostic. I lack enough proof of the state of the universe to know someway
12:13
Dan Szymborski: and I do consider there’s an opportunity that we’re in a simulation, although it doesn’t have any sensible impact
12:13
I’m the Apple: Which non-baseball factor is greatest?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: tacos?
12:14
Coolidge: The dispensationalists have taken over. Lord assist us!
12:14
Lowe Distribution System: Projection query: if two guys in AAA have the identical stats on the whole lot, however one is 21 years previous and one is 27, would they challenge in a different way only for the remainder of the season? I ask as a result of it looks like at any time when we see an previous man killing it in AAA he nonetheless isn’t helpful even on the bench within the majors
12:14
Dan Szymborski: quick time period, USUALLY no. It’s extra o f alongside time period factor
12:14
Dan Szymborski: however you hardly ever get disputes that neat
12:14
Visitor: Do you assume the emphasis on swing velocity metrics might result in a rise in again accidents amongst hitters? May this turn into an endemic problem, much like how superior pitching knowledge has coincided with an increase in elbow surgical procedures?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Sadly, I do know little extra about human physiology than a normal thought how infants are made. I might think about that swing velocity might trigger extra again accidents in individuals who swing BADLY
12:15
Dan Szymborski: I think about that almost all gamers get ok teaching by this stage that it probalby doesn’t make a distinction
12:15
Dan Szymborski: however that is an informed guess. I don’t KNOW
12:15
BeefLoaf108: How a lot of your trolling me and different White Sox followers do you assume factored in to the dangerous karma that’s apparently clobbering your Baltimore Orioles? 
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I troll everybody and the whole lot! Half of commentary journalism is trolling
12:17
Dan Szymborski:
12:17
Adam: Will we glance again on this as the most effective half season in Andy Pages’ profession, or is there much more there?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I count on that is LIKELY what his peak seems to be like
12:17
Nick: What do I do with Oneil Cruz? He’s hurting my group. Do I bench him? Commerce him?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: I’ll all the time be affected person with the SS who hits balls with the rate of protons within the giant hadron collider
12:18
MilwaukeeBeerJays: Dan Dan, the fantasy man, have you ever seen Ultimate Fantasy MTG but, and are you a dirty commander participant?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t performed MTG in 30 years actually.
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I hardly ever had mates to play and I by no means actually acquired again into it
12:20
Thanks for the chat!: What would you supply Decide for a 3-4 yr free agent deal this offseason?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: a small nation
12:20
Dan Szymborski: If I might get him on a 3 yr deal, I’d have zero qualms about providing $70 million per
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Properly, except I’ve to pay for it. I don’t have $70 million
12:20
Coolidge: I take a look at Michael Harris’ preseason zips projection. Then I take a look at his numbers this season. Then I cry, pricey god what has occurred.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that ZiPS projection isn’t going nicely
12:21
Adam: Are the Savannah Bananas good/dangerous/impartial for baseball?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: I’m all the time for nonsense
12:23
Lord Thunder: Would you let Ohtani pitch if you happen to ran the Dodgers?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Sure
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I PAID FOR THE CRUISE CONTROL AND MOONROOF
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Properly, I suppose automobiles include the cruise management don’t they?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: insert one other optionally available safeety characteristic
12:23
Visitor: Are you able to see deep studying strategies, significantly newer RNN and transformer architectures, bettering present projection fashions?
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Definitely attainable! Although I believe we’ll solely see incremental video games
12:23
Phil: Is Walker Buehler in large large hassle, or simply hassle? It’s all command, I believe–the stuff seems to be OK–but it surely clearly must be fastened.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: average hassle
12:24
War2d2: Tucker has been nice, however in all probability not an MVP candidate. What does Zips assume his subsequent contract seems to be like at this level?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: $3 one thing final I checked
12:24
Dan Szymborski: However who is aware of – there simply aren’t many bats avaialble in FA subsequent couple years
12:25
Allantes: Should you ran the Cubs and with the advantage of hindsight, would you’ve gotten topped the Astros to signal Hader?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: In all probability not
12:25
Jeff in Jersey: I’d signal Tucker for $3!
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Quiet you!
12:25
Bob Loblaw: Why is it whenever you take a look at the Statcast Batted Ball Profile Leaderboard the outcomes are sorted by Pull Air %? I perceive its significance, nevertheless, I wouldn’t assume that may be the top all for balls put into play.
12:30
Ethan: May you see the Rangers buying and selling Corey Seager? He has 6/$186 (wage not AAV) after this yr. When eager about the Mets and their deficiencies and in addition long run roster constructing, taking over Seager’s contract looks like a worthwhile danger in comparison with giving Alonso a 5 yr deal value round $30 million a yr. Thanks!
12:30
Dan Szymborski: I don’t see them doing that
12:30
Dan Szymborski: they didn’t do an enormous rebuild when issues had been going far far worse
12:30
Dan Szymborski: and I dont’ assume there’s been a basic change within the org
12:31
Dan Szymborski: and so they’re solely a pair video games out within the wild card!
12:31
Adam: Should you owned the Rockies, what kind of group would you attempt to construct to maximise your likelihood at sustainable profitable? Seems like they’ve tried quite a few totally different philosophies over time however can’t appear to beat the altitude. (Or is the altitude simply an excuse?)
12:31
Dan Szymborski: I believe making an attempt to construct a particular TYPE of group runs you into hassle
12:31
Dan Szymborski: The overall technique ought to be to opportunistically construct pretty much as good a group as attainable. Be extra involved in regards to the high quality than the archetype
12:32
Insert Witty Title Right here: Have you learnt of a approach to discover out the very best single sport pitch counts in a sport during the last ten years or so? I messed round within the leaderboards not too long ago and I couldn’t discover a manner to take action.
12:32
Dan Szymborski: I believe stathead has that, I don’t assume we do
12:32
Matt: FanGraphs however, why aren’t there extra nerds in baseball? Each time I see Michael Busch all I can consider is Simon Pegg – are we certain they’re not associated?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: athletes are often too busy to do all of the nerd stuff
12:36
Hmm: Which Dan cat would product the very best Barrel%?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Justinian
12:36
Dan Szymborski: he’s simply essentially the most athletic of my present cats
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Although when he was alive, it could have been Galileo
12:36
Adam: Who’s the most effective participant that the fewest folks on this chat have ever heard of?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Joe Kelley?
12:36
Jacob: Ryan Pepiot has already finished extra for the Rays than Glasnow has for the Dodgers. Can we simply admit that Glasnow is manufactured from fragile glass?
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Shoudl change his title to Glaslater
12:36
Visitor: What number of extra years of pitching at this stage would it’s essential to see from deGrom for him to be a HoF for you?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided the reply isn’t 0
12:37
Dan Szymborski: However I’m extra of a peak man than the huge overwhelming majority of BBWAA members
12:37
Dan Szymborski: I might have voted for Johan Santana
12:37
Dan Szymborski: and I’m severely eager about votes for King Felix and David Wright
12:37
Bob Loblaw: So how lengthy earlier than Jacob Misiorowski takes over the world?
12:37
Dan Szymborski: He wants a bigger military
12:39
the one who asks the lunch query: what’s for lunch?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: numerous cheeses and a really spicy pickle. I used to be at Jungle Jim’s yesterday
12:40
Lowe Distribution System: Aren’t Henderson and Cowser all the time doing Lego and Star Wars stuff?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, however that stuff is cooler than it was once!
12:40
Lowe Distribution System: After profitable the World Collection, Sean Doolittle was simply wandering across the infield enjoying with a lightsaber
12:40
Visitor: Jacob Merceniorowski
12:42
Allantes: I’m a giant “peak” HoF man. Anybody who throws an ideal sport ought to be in.
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Tha’ts slightly quick a peak for me!
12:44
Allantes: Are the Athletics the one group with inexperienced as a major uniform colour?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I consider they’re the one MLB group in historical past to make use of inexperienced as their major colour, not simply an alternate or a secondary trim or one thing
12:44
Dan Szymborski: At the least trendy baseball – I don’t know each uniform of the 1800s
12:45
Dan Szymborski: however I think about they had been principally the offwhite or grey
12:46
Matt: Re DeGrom, if his 2021 season was authored by a reliever, we’d be speaking about one of many biggest aid seasons of all time, on par with Gagne in ‘03. As an alternative he will get tenth place for Cy vote and his season is relegated to the dustbin of historical past. Briefly, accidents suck and we are able to’t have good issues
12:46
Victoria: I’m a “large peak” HOF gal, it doesn’t matter how good your peak was so long as it lasted a very long time
12:46
Allantes: Mark Teixiera is tremendous into musicals. Not traditional nerding, however fairly nerdy nonetheless.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: I’m a sucker for musicals too
12:47
Garth: I believe the Satan Rays used some off-green? Possibly I simply keep in mind it that manner as a result of they sucked so dangerous.
12:47
Dan Szymborski: yeah, but it surely wasn’t actually outstanding the way in which it’s with the A’s
12:47
Drewnasty: Higher film – Ghostbusters 2 or Robocop 2?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Ghostbusters
12:50
mmddyyyy: Is 2 essentially the most attainable TJS?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I woudl assume you can probably do extra, however I’m unaware of anybody who had greater than 2
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Did Venters?
12:50
Drewnasty: That’s the appropriate reply. Thanks Dan.
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t know I used to be getting rated!
12:50
MN Dave: Buxton has a NTC, no likelihood is he traded
12:51
Dan Szymborski: all people has a value
12:52
mmddyyyy: What number of submariners are left in professional ball?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: They’re nonetheless round!
12:52
Dan Szymborski: I can’t declare to know each minor league submariner
12:53
Dan Szymborski: however I’d name Rogers/Hill/Thompson as clearly submariner
12:53
Dan Szymborski: after which there’s a bunch of fellows the place it depends upon your sidearm/submarine cutoff
12:53
Dan Szymborski: like lawrence
12:54
Dan Szymborski: and milner
12:54
Jeff in Jersey: Amen to voting for Santana and DeGrom for the HOF. Spending on this period exhibits that groups worth upper-tier efficiency way over consistency/sturdiness. May you think about the bidding for Santana at this time after his ’03-’07 run at this time?
12:54
mmddyyyy: Do pitchers pitch higher after they get run assist?
12:54
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t discovered a correlation
12:54
ajake57: Sure, Venters had 3
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I knew he had three surgical procedures however didn’t keep in mind offhand if one was a shoulder
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Do need to go pretty strictly at 1:00, I’m imagined to drop off my automobile on the physique store by 1:30 
12:56
mmddyyyy: What’s your job title?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Senior Author
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Although I don’t actually get hung up on titles
12:56
West Coast Bias Truther: What does Cal Raleigh have to do to turn into the MVP frontrunner?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Presumably homicide Aaron Decide and never get caughyt?
12:56
Garth: Tejay Antone is working his manner again from his third TJS.
12:56
ajake57: Sorry, Venters had 4 TJs!
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Ack
12:57
John B: Jordan Walker – would you ship him down one final time or simply dangle in there?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: ship him down. he’s not serving to the group
12:57
Dan Szymborski: good catch
12:57
ajake57: 4 TJs and shoulder capsule restore, in response to wikipedia
12:58
MilwaukeeBeerJays: Is Cal Raleigh the most effective catcher in baseball now? Will Contreras has jit a wall, Rutschman has hit a bigger greater wall, realmuto is on the again 9 and bowling ball kirk can’t hit like cal.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: Sure+
12:58
Adam: Have you ever ever caught a foul ball or dwelling run?
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means caught a house run. I do have a Craig Worthington foul ball
12:58
Not Cal Raleigh: Another person might homicide Aaron Decide, it doens’t need to be Cal.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: But when he did it and didn’t get caught, that’s an especially beneficial win contribution
12:58
Honkus Wagner: brat toppings, whats the highest tier?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: on brat, kraut or GFY
12:59
RasiedUp: I used to be having this dialog with my brother regulation over the weekend. However it looks like when groups are up in day video games there’s much less likelihood of a comeback vs evening video games. Is that only a bizarre bias I really feel?
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I believe it might be merely observational bias, however I don’t truly KNOW for certain
12:59
Will: One of many issues I’ve observed in guys who’ve come as much as the MLB this yr and had hassle (Jac Caglianone, Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell after his sizzling begin) is a brilliant excessive % of floor balls within the minor leagues and/or a excessive GB/FB ratio. Is that one thing you retain a watch out for whenever you take a look at prospects/do you assume groups overlook it when deciding to name up prospects from the minor leagues? (Sorry lengthy query I do know)
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t discovered a scientific high quality to this in translations
1:00
Adam: Ought to MLB gamers play within the 2028 Olympics?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: No, as a result of I believe the Olympics are a dumb place to showcase baseball
1:00
Dan Szymborski: WBC is best at being baseball’s Olympics than the precise Olympics might probably be
1:00
Dan Szymborski: And I like much less outstanding sports activities getting the eye
1:01
Jacob: Rasmussen has had 3 surgical procedures for his elbow 2 TJS and 1 inside brace surgical procedure
1:01
War2d2: Want caramelized onions on a brat, come on now
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I’m bizarre, I desire onions uncooked
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I just like the pungency and the crunch
1:01
Dan Szymborski: If I can’t get the onions uncooked on a cheesesteak, then simply wiz
1:02
glt4dc: With the NBA draft happening, it’s fascinating (to me, in any case) how rather more keen NBA groups are keen to incorporate first spherical picks (and swaps), than NFL groups, that are rather more tight-fisted with buying and selling them. Anyhow, given this can be a baseball web site, I used to be questioning if MLB ever determined to let groups commerce draft picks, would groups be extra prone to undertake an NBA or NFL method/valuation of those picks?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: Draft choose buying and selling would have CBA implications, in order that’s the massive purpose MLB hasn’t gone there
1:02
Dan Szymborski: And on that observe, I actually need to go. Physique store is quarter-hour away and I’m not even dressed
1:02
Dan Szymborski: see you all!
Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, an everyday visitor on quite a lot of radio exhibits and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
