12:01
Dan Szymborski: mesdames et messieurs, bienvenue, nobles FanGraphiers et vénérables sabermétriciens!
12:01
Alex: Drake Baldwin has had a beautiful rookie season. What would you count on from the remainder of his profession? Brian McCann had a profession 12 months at 22 and by no means exceeded the numbers he posted that season; Huge Dumper hit a stratospheric different degree. The place do you see Baldwin going from right here?
12:02
Dan Szymborski: As I all the time inform everybody: catchers are bizarre
12:02
Dan Szymborski: Generally they peak weirdly, generally they cease creating, generally they simply blow up late one way or the other
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided we all know which bizarre manner Baldwin will age, so simply assume one thing pretty regular and ready for Mets degree tracknessy (tradgety + wackiness)
12:03
Idiotic Failson: Grisham and Bellinger are each going to be free brokers. Do you suppose the Yankees resign one, each, or neither?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I feel they could maintain Grisham and lose Bellinger
12:05
Visitor: Which 2026 MLB free agent reliever would you give a contract value mrke
12:05
Dan Szymborski: mrke?
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Perhaps it’s nonetheless too early (my mind doesn’t actually perform earlier than 2 PM), but when somebody can inform me what that’s, I’ll reply
12:07
Visitor: I do know that ZiPS projections begin to be saved for the offseason round now, however what would Caleb Ferguson being stretched out as a starter appear like? Clearly he’s primarily been a single-inning man, however he seems to be like a good candidate for a kick change and has explicitly expressed an curiosity in beginning earlier than.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS issues pretty third-fourth startery, however it’s not predicting issues like data of a brand new pitch
12:07
Visitor: You suppose 2/10 would get it accomplished for Devin Williams within the offseason?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: No, I feel he’s adequate that he both will get a much bigger contract, or a very nice one 12 months deal
12:08
Idiotic Failson: Wenceel Perez got here into the 12 months with extraordinarily ‘meh’ forecasts. Given his >300 AB pattern dimension of 120wRC+ on the dish, do you (or Zips) see him an a comfortably above common hitter now? Or is his present run on the plate a fluke?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say comfortably above common, however I feel he’s exhibiting he’s respectable, particularly not BABIP pushed
12:08
Eli: Does ZiPS see any hope for Volpe or Wells? Or are they doomed to affix the island of misplaced yankee prospects with Chook, Frazier, Sanchez, Andujar, and many others.?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless have hope and ZiPS does too
12:10
Dan Szymborski: Whereas I don’t need to parrot Yankees reddit an excessive amount of, given their insane blame of analytics for every part that doesn’t work and attributing at every part that does work to ignoring analytics, Volpe *has* gotten too far into large energy hitter strategy; he’s not Kyle Schwarber and line drives are good
12:10
Dan Szymborski: And I don’t WTF is occurring along with his protection this 12 months
12:10
Chi Sox Chip: What can we make of Colson Montgomery?
12:11
Dan Szymborski: The facility’s been spectacular and you’ll’t actually pretend that. However you may’t ignroe that the dude had practically a half season of low 200 BA underneath 300 OBP in *AAA* THIS 12 months
12:11
Sodo Mojo: If the Mariners can solely select between holding Arozarena
or buying and selling him and resigning Naylor this off season which one ought to the select. I assume that the final 12 months of Randy’s Arbitration might be much like the primary 12 months wage in Naylor’s deal.
12:12
Dan Szymborski: I’d in all probability select Arozarena
12:12
Visitor: 43% much less terrible remains to be a variety of terrible
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Hey, I by no means promised I WASNT terrible. Simply something happening in Twitter or BlueSky proper now whilst you’re studying that is at a MINIMUM 43% worse
12:13
J: Who’s your NL rookie of the 12 months to date?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Only a be aware: I’m an NL ROY voter, and I’m not alleged to reveal my emotions on this
12:13
James: Are you aware the place to search out knowledge on how usually the Manfred man scores in additional innings? Looks like the conversion late has been low and questioning if that traces up with actuality
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I’m nto positive, I haven’t actually accomplished it myself. I’m questioning if a combo of stathead queries can catch it
12:14
Pinstriped Energy: Yankees are rolling with 3 younger pitchers within the rotation proper. Not dangerous for a group that has a fame for counting on past-peak overpriced free brokers. Does zips suppose Gil, Warren and Schlitter are long run options
12:14
Dan Szymborski: All 3 to an *extent*
12:14
Sodo Mojo: How a lot will this 12 months impact Cal Raliegh’s future zips projections. Previously it was laborious to challenge him changing into an element time DH over the following 3 years as a result of the bat was not robust sufficient. Do you suppose that this 12 months will change his projections sufficient so he might have a Joe Mauer like transition to both 1B or DH?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: the projections are fairly strong now!
12:14
Ethan: Otherthan studying this website, what’s the #1 strategy to perceive sabermetrics higher?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Merely asking questions on issues and making an attempt to reply them with investigation
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Each factor in sabermetrics cames as a result of somebody had a query
12:15
Dan Szymborski: WHY do groups rating runs
12:15
Dan Szymborski: WHY are pitcher hit totals seemingly risky
12:15
Dan Szymborski: WHY the fricking hell do folks suppose Jack Morris ought to be a Corridor of Famer
12:15
Jacob: Hello Dan! You talked about yesterday in your Connelly Early article that ZiPS has a “playoff mode” for assessing the way in which rotations shorten up within the postseason. Are you aware but if you happen to’ll write up a extra detailed playoff mode rating for October, and the way does the Phillies’ rating react to shedding Wheeler for the 12 months?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: (The reply to the final one is “folks have dangerous concepts”)
12:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t often do the playoff rating, because you see it within the playoff projections!
12:16
Visitor: Good afternoon, Dan! Being a Mets fan, it looks as if I’d been listening to about how proficient Sproat was for years. It stunned me this 12 months when it appeared he took a step again and obtained leapfrogged by first McLean after which Tong. Now that he’s up and searching fairly good, would possibly he wind up being as pretty much as good or higher than the opposite two? What’s your rank for the three ROS, in addition to 2026 and past? Thanks!
12:17
Dan Szymborski: I feel all of them have a fairly good likelihood of being good long run. There’s a variety of taking a step ahead and perhaps taking a step again earlier than you’re taking just a few extra ahead in prospect improvement
12:17
Bob Loblaw’s Legislation Weblog: Hello Dan, fake that you simply’re Chaim Bloom. What would you do that winter?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Calling the now Dan Szymborski housing Chaim Bloom’s soul and apologizing to him for the load achieve he simply endured with the swtich
12:19
Dan Szymborski: I actually need to attempt to flesh out what the infield seems to be like. This was sort of the play it by ear 12 months, and I don’t need one other winter the place I’m improvising mid-winter
12:20
Unabashed Cubs Fan: Hey Dan, who do you suppose begins for Cubs subsequent 12 months between 3 OF spots and DH?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I feel it’ll look very similar to this 12 months, however Caissie on the market as an alternative of Tucker
12:20
Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Dan – can we count on that the Playoff Tigers will play extra just like the group that has terrorized the Yankees’ bullpen the previous two nights than the group of imposters that misplaced 2 of three towards the White Sox and was just lately swept by the Oakland-Sacramento Athletics of Las Vegas?
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Like most issues, within the center!
12:20
Kristen: Are you shopping for the Rangers? Their highway file is horrendous and the hitting lineup is dotted with no-names, however they simply swept the group with the perfect file in MLB and the rotation remains to be strong with out Evo,
12:20
Dan Szymborski: I’m not. the offense simply scares me
12:20
Insert Witty Identify Right here: What’s the perfect/worst factor about this season that you simply loved/hated?
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Effectively, I’ve most hated the Orioles sort of sucking
12:21
Dan Szymborski: however I really like Cal Raleigh going nuts
12:21
Bardo Invoice: In your article on opt-out candidates you projected a fairly large bump for Bregman in ZiPS, from a 2026 projectioin of two.4 WAR within the pre-season ZiPS to three.7 WAR now. However since getting back from harm he’s at solely 0.8 WAR with a 99 wRC+. How does ZiPS take care of that kind of pre-/post-injury cut up? Does the large bump in his projection nonetheless really feel proper to you?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: I feel what I wrote was taken extra actually than I supposed. Bregman has a greater projection for 2026 than he did coming into 2025, however I feel his *basic trajectory* and the notion of his expertise degree is about the identical
12:23
Dan Szymborski: He’s a star, not a celebrity, on the mistaken facet of 30, and he can stick at 3B for fairly some time
12:23
Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose he’s change how any thinks about him. Most felt already constructive
12:23
Dan Szymborski: The total ZiPS mannequin has all of the harm stuff; in season is a giant less complicated
12:23
Dan Szymborski: bit
12:23
War2D2: Re: catchers being bizarre: check out Rick Wilkins’ profession someday.
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Ben Davis
12:23
Dan Szymborski: Ben Petrick
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Mickey Tettleton as a prospect was a GLOVE FIRST prospect within the minors
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Charles Johnson had a bizarre ass profession
12:25
Visitor: Is there anyway to trace anticipated fWar, that’s primarily based on anticipated stats versus real-life outcomes?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: to trace, no, however you coudl do one thing your self if you happen to have been inventive
12:25
J: While you vote for ROY I’ll know that you simply’re responding to me personally, a minimum of.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’ll vote for an eligible candidate!
12:25
Jerry: Dan, simply needed to say effectively accomplished on that Mayo article. Actually spectacular perception.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Thanks. I like once I get compliments for issues I didn’t do 🙂
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Ben wrote the piece!
12:26
Dan Szymborski: So please direct your plaudits at Mr. Clemens
12:27
Dan Szymborski: If Samuel Clemens is Mark Twain, ought to baseball author Ben Clemens be Park Twain?
12:27
johnboy: What does Jazz get on the open market?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I feel jazz, like classical, will sells greatest when it’s one of many old fashioned names or a crossover, than for something new 🙂
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t anybody have mrke but?
12:28
Jeremy: Have groups gotten meaningfully higher at enjoying matchups with their place gamers (past simply in search of the platoon benefit) due to granular knowledge on assault angles, efficiency towards particular sorts of pitches, and many others.?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: I consider they’ve, however these items profit each side
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Like it’s possible you’ll know Capo Ferro, however the different man might know Thibault. After which the hitter may need studied his Agrippa
12:30
Idiotic Failson: Should you took a contemporary pitcher (velocity, pitch form recognition, and many others) and dropped him into the Forties, what would his ERA appear like? Would he fully dominate since these hitters would wrestle with velocity, sequencing, and pitch form?
12:30
Dan Szymborski: I feel he’d do *fairly* effectively, however there are caveats
12:30
Dan Szymborski: SOME of the data received’t be straight relevant, just because hitters approaches are totally different
12:31
Dan Szymborski: Displaying up with a 98 mph fastball and a 91 mph changeup and slider will do extra to destroy Forties hitters than particular data
12:31
Dan Szymborski: greater than the sequencing half, I feel
12:31
Dan Szymborski: since they’re such harmful instruments
12:32
Dan Szymborski: However the 98 mph will in all probability must be taken a bit off of it
12:32
Dan Szymborski: as a result of your supervisor is supplying you with 350 innings and also you’re going to have lifeless arm in two years, and folks of 80 years later won’t ever bear in mind you once they discuss how sturdy pitchers have been within the previous days as a result of they’ve forgotten all of the Ewell Blackwells
12:32
Karl Hungus: Greatest baseball film?
12:32
Dan Szymborski: The Sandlot
12:32
21127: There are 5 collection left. I’d love if, at this precise level within the season, a group had one collection left towards every group in its division.
12:32
I’m the Apple: Might be extra for the mailbag, however: Who’s the one participant from every of the highest worldwide leagues (NPB, KBO, LMB, CPBL) with the very best projected rest-of-career MLB WAR in the event that they have been to make the bounce as we speak?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I can’t do that one justice and I feel you shoudl undoubtedly ask in mailbag
12:33
Visitor: ought to the yankees commerce volpe this offseason? He’s struggled with extra than simply baseball, the yankees fandom seems to have damaged him. He nonetheless has excessive upside too, now we have already seen his potential. Volpe to Rockies confirmed?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Volpe does appear to be he might use a change of surroundings
12:33
Greg: I do know it has solely been 3 begins however watching Kyle Bradish dominate whereas “recovering” must be a late-season brilliant mild for Orioles followers. I really like him greater than anybody and I’m nonetheless fairly stunned/impressed.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: hmm
12:34
Dan Szymborski: there as soon as was a pitcher named bradish
12:34
Dan Szymborski: who ails had use recite the kaddish
12:35
Dan Szymborski: hmm
12:36
Dan Szymborski: his elbow intact
12:36
Dan Szymborski: he nonetheless has the knack
12:37
Dan Szymborski: uhhh.. one thing radish? I obtained myself in a bind
12:37
Farhandrew Zaidman: I’d identical to to shout out Adam Ottavino on youtube actual fast, he’s doing day by day reveals and it’s a few of the greatest pitching content material on the market.
12:37
bob: If the rangers make the playoffs, will probably be the perfect comeback since _____
12:37
Dan Szymborski: sliced bread
12:38
Dan Szymborski: his slider nonetheless bites like a radish?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: I dunno
12:38
Dan Szymborski: And the Tigers comeback final 12 months was higher
12:39
johnboy: if each participant was a free agent on the finish of the 12 months, who would get the most important contract? Bobby Witt?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Witt or Soto I assume
12:39
Greg: “Oy vey!” he mentioned, “There
Is not any want for a prayer!”
“My slider is sharp as a radish!”
12:39
Tiger Fan: Hey, statistical semantics query. Why is wOBA scaled to OBP and never OPS?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: I feel since OPS in itself is a bizarre stat and OBP ranges are extra acquainted amongst old fashioned followers
12:40
Aviaries: Would you give Cody Bellinger 9-figures if you happen to have been GM of, say, the Padres or Dodgers? I fear about his manufacturing in different ballparks
12:40
Dan Szymborski: I *probalby* wouldn’t
12:40
Dan Szymborski: however I can see a selected group having the justification
12:40
Jeremy: Analysts draw a distinction between true expertise that’s very autocorrelated (doesn’t change with time, or solely adjustments slowly resulting from age) and noise/luck that’s not autocorrelated in any respect. However is participant efficiency autocorrelated on intermediate timescales–days, weeks, months?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I’ve really experimented with this fairly a bit – I consider expertise as fluctuating in a spread
12:41
Dan Szymborski: In any other case, now we have manner too many no hitters and homer streaks and hitting streaks
12:41
Visitor: I bear in mind some time again there was an article evaluating Bichette to a poor mans Turner. Along with his current bounce again within the final couple weeks since, what do you challenge his contract to appear like
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Don’t suppose he’ll get Turner cash
12:42
Dan Szymborski: We’ll speak extra about this in offseason!
12:42
Greg: 
12:42
Visitor: Greatest sabermetric-focused ebook to learn after ending The Ebook?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: I feel that hidden recreation of baseball and the invoice james abstracts are foundational. Merely put, seeing the place sabermetrics “began” and understanding its evolution sort of makes you perceive the insides extra
12:43
Dan Szymborski: And it additionally depends upon the place you’re
12:43
Dan Szymborski: And bear in mind, I converse from the angle of somebody who has been into sabermetrics for 40 years
12:44
Greg: Since somebody requested you about motion pictures, I despatched you a picture and I feel you’ll adore it. I couldn’t get the sport to provide him fungus on his bathe sandals, although.
12:44
War2D2: I feel it’s scaled to OBP as a result of “wOPS” can be offensive.
12:44
War2D2: is a radish sharp although?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: a great radish ought to be
12:44
Dan Szymborski: might additionally rhyme it with horseradish
12:44
Dan Szymborski: although must tinker
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I usually don’t attempt to write a limerick in reside chat
12:45
Farhandrew Zaidman: On the wOBA v OPS matter – Tom Tango’s quick chapter on the subject in The Ebook all the time cracks me up. It’s mainly “wOBA is best in each manner than OPS and right here’s why and we received’t be discussing OPS any extra on this ebook”
12:45
Dan Szymborski: OPS is all the time controversial as a result of it’s a extremely helpful kludge
12:45
Dan Szymborski: truthfully, xFIP is similar manner
12:46
Dan Szymborski: xFIP is sort of silly. However it additionally sort of works as a result of HR totals for pitchers is sort of a crap stat
12:46
Dan Szymborski: so it really works by sucking much less
12:46
Dan Szymborski: We do a variety of brute pressure shortcuts in life as a result of they work kinda superb
12:47
Pinstriped Energy: I like to think about OPS as only a bit analytical however nonetheless straightforward to grasp
12:48
Dan Szymborski: saber-adjacent
12:48
Tiger Fan: Thanks. I’d’ve thought OPS was extra mainstream for catch-all offense than OBP (I hear far more dads discuss decide’s 1.100 OPS than Soto’s .400 OBP) which is what I believed wOBA would goal
12:48
Greg: I all the time attempt to write a limerick in your reside chat Dan, you may rely on me
12:48
Visitor: Is Anthony Volpe simply New York’s Marner? If that’s the case, Volpe for Lawrence butler 1 for 1?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t identified sufficient about hockey in 30 years to be making analogies
12:48
Farhandrew Zaidman: Mookie since declaring his season over has been like a .300/.400/.500 hitter. Perhaps the answer all alongside was simply giving up?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I imply, didn’t all of us be taught from that Voyager episode the place the ship was going into an anomaly and the configuration of the ship stored altering and so they realized that the answer was simply to take a seat there and shut up?
12:49
12 to six: can’t see the dodgers being a sensible stomach location this offseason – they’ve pages and teo and a passel of of prospects on the come and freeman blocks stomach at 1b. they could pump the market and that i’m positive he’d love to return to la, however the match doesn’t appear to be sensical to me.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: yeah, I’m undecided dodgers would
12:49
Farhandrew Zaidman: Would you be in favor of MLB amending the Ohtani rule to permit his group to maintain the DH if he is available in as a aid pitcher (a la WBC)?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I’d, however I haven’t enormously contemplated the loopholes
12:50
Sawx: After just a few Tolle begins, one Early begin, and one look for Kyle Harrison, which of the Sox lefties do you suppose makes the largest influence on the final month of the season?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I feel Early could be the most secure. I feel he’s higher than Harrison, and he didn’t advance fairly as shortly as Tolle did
12:50
Dan Szymborski: Tolle actually has little or no higher minors expertise
12:50
James: Is it simply me, or has there been an uptick in hitters beginning to first after 3-ball pitches which can be clearly strikes and having to get known as again by the umpire? Makes me surprise how an ABS problem system will go
12:50
Dan Szymborski: hmm, undecided methods to measure this!
12:51
Dan Szymborski: However I hadn’t seen it. However I don’t discover a variety of issues
12:51
Dan Szymborski: after which once I’m conscious of them, I hyper discover them
12:51
Insert Witty Identify Right here: I had associates as a child, no I didn’t see that episode of Voyager.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: hey, I had associates!
12:53
Dan Szymborski: You’ll be able to’t play goldeneye by your self
12:53
Dan Szymborski: and road fighter II is far more enjoyable with associates
12:53
Dan Szymborski: or fireworks
12:54
Dan Szymborski: or this bizarre exterior violent disguise and search recreation we had. It was disguise and search exterior, however once you discovered somebody, you might solely catch them by tackling them to the bottom earlier than they tackled youi to the bottom
12:54
Dan Szymborski: that recreation’s REALLY not enjoyable wtih strangers who don’t know they’re enjoying the sport
12:54
Visitor: I feel the “mrke” query was alleged to be:
“Which 2026 MLB free agent reliever would you give a contract value (greater than $XM per 12 months)?”
What’s your reply if X=10?
12:55
Dan Szymborski: I’d be comfy with Suarez, who isn’t going to require six years or anythign becuase of his age
12:55
Visitor: What do you suppose the marketplace for Josh Naylor might be within the offseason? He’s underneath 30 yrs previous, and making a declare for commerce deadline MVP.
12:55
Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose it’s an enormous market, someplace between Walker and Santander
12:55
Karl Hungus: Odds MLB adopts the all star recreation homerun off as an alternative of the ghost runner additional innings?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Probalby very low. It’ sjust TOO totally different for MLB
12:56
Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose I’d prefer it, however I REALLY don’t like zombie runners
12:56
Dan Szymborski: and on some degree, I quite or not it’s one thing new and obnoxiously totally different than ruining one thing that was already good
12:57
florp: what was your 9/11 like
12:57
Dan Szymborski: oh geez, I didn’t even understand as we speak was 9/11
12:57
Dan Szymborski: I kinda heard about most of it later within the day
12:58
Dan Szymborski: I used to be at Damon’s in Lutherville consuming all you may eat ribs and $2 honey browns the evening earlier than for monday evening soccer
12:58
Dan Szymborski: that was the MNF the place ed mccaffrey shattered his leg and rodney williams had that 90 yard punt
12:59
Dan Szymborski: My mother known as me about 10 AM and it woke me up and he or she made some remark that somebody ran their airplane into the wtc and I believed it was somebody flying just a little cessna or one thing and went again to mattress
12:59
Dan Szymborski: I then awoke about 1 to prepare since I used to be going to the ironbirds recreation later and obtained cuaght up
12:59
Lowetide: Darren Daulton wasn’t a lot till he was one thing. What about Agustin Ramirez? Is he a future 1b? Like two years from now?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: I feel he’s a future 1B, however I’d maintain him at catcher till he conclusively proves in any other case
1:00
Dan Szymborski: what would the draw back be? the marlins lose?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: On that be aware, it’s 1 PM and time fo rme to move out
1:00
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!
1:00
Dan Szymborski: See you on the NEXT installment
1:01
Dan Szymborski: perhaps I’ll tighten up the limerick, however I’ll in all probability neglect it
Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a daily visitor on quite a few radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
