Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Pictures
Some days, we analyze all of baseball right here at FanGraphs, and possibly provide you with some instruments that can assist predict all of future baseball. Damage-aware depth charts, payroll matrices, prime prospect lists: You get the thought. In the present day, nevertheless, just isn’t a type of days, at the least not for me. That’s as a result of after watching some movies of Tyler Soderstrom being very robust, I attempted to determine whether or not his early-season success will proceed.
Being very robust is a worthwhile ability, at the least in relation to hitting a baseball. Folks don’t ooh and aah over Aaron Choose as a result of his identify makes for a enjoyable fan part; they do it as a result of he hits the ball to this point. There are numerous alternative ways to be good at hitting, however let’s be trustworthy with one another: Being actually robust is without doubt one of the greatest methods. Chicks don’t dig the well-placed reverse discipline sinking liner, you recognize? Or, in the event that they do, nobody made t-shirts about it.
How robust is Tyler Soderstrom? Properly, watch this swing:
I’m certain you’ve heard of taking what the pitcher provides you, going to the other discipline when the ball is away relatively than attempting to drag it. I’m pretty sure that the individuals giving that recommendation don’t imply that you must flick your wrists and smash the ball over the fence at 100 miles an hour, although.
I gave you that GIF to begin issues off as a result of the informal energy shocked me after I noticed it. That swing didn’t look significantly vicious, nevertheless it was. The pace of a person swing doesn’t inform us that a lot a few participant, however that one was 77.4 mph, and that’s understating it. Swings pace up as they lengthen, with pace measured on the level of contact. The purpose of contact on that ball was deep – that’s the way you go to the other discipline – which implies much less swing size and thus much less swing pace.
That could be Soderstrom’s most spectacular dwelling run, nevertheless it’s not emblematic of how he’s been succeeding in 2025. And oh, has he been succeeding! He’s already cranked six homers en path to a .378/.440/.822 line; he’s two-thirds of the way in which to matching his 9 homers from final yr in 1 / 4 of the plate appearances. And final yr wasn’t even a low bar to clear; he posted a 114 wRC+ with glorious peripherals.
What’s modified this yr? Properly, small pattern dimension is Soderstrom’s pal, for one factor. He in all probability gained’t hold turning half of his fly balls into dwelling runs, what with this being main league baseball as an alternative of gradual pitch softball. However there’s completely one thing new with him this season. Check out the places of each ball Soderstrom hit within the air in 2024:
It’s simple to think about the strategy that results in this sort of spray sample. The most effective-struck batted balls are to middle and left middle, resulting in most of his dwelling runs coming in these areas. There’s a pile of ripped singles in proper discipline, each one a line drive. In different phrases, he was hitting the ball low and laborious to the pull facet, and excessive and laborious to the other discipline.
It’s fairly simple to know why you wouldn’t need that blend of batted balls. Low and laborious works higher to middle discipline, as a result of it’s laborious to hit the ball out of the park there. Excessive and laborious works higher down the traces, however on condition that it’s fairly troublesome to hit the ball excessive and laborious the opposite approach, the large hole in Soderstrom’s manufacturing was not sufficient pulled fly balls. You may be as robust as you need; it’s laborious to excel whenever you hit your fly balls to the largest a part of the stadium.
Now, I confirmed you an reverse discipline dwelling run to begin this text, however that’s not likely what Soderstrom has been about to this point in 2025:
Fairly than peppering the other discipline hole, Soderstrom is lifting and pulling. On aerial contact, his pull charge is up from 24.3% to 50%. Restrict it to fly balls particularly, and it’s up from 17.8% to 41.7%. League common for all aerial contact is 31%, and 26% for fly balls particularly. Take big grains of salt with all of this, due to the restricted pattern dimension, nevertheless it doesn’t take an aerodynamics PhD to know that this transformation has helped him unlock his colossal energy.
How do you hit the ball to the pull facet? There’s no a method, however as a broad rule, inside pitches are simpler to drag and outdoors pitches are simpler to hit the opposite approach. That’s what Soderstrom is doing. He’s going after fastballs on the interior half this yr and taking fastballs on the surface edge as an alternative of attempting to punch them the opposite approach. His swing charge on exterior fastballs is down by 15 share factors, whereas his swing charge on inside fastballs has elevated.
May all of this be an early-season mirage? Unquestionably. However I’m prepared to intuit actual intent right here, as a result of the magnitude of the change is gigantic. Right here it’s in grid kind:
Fastball Swing% By Location
Location
2024
2025
Inside
45.3%
52.3%
Outdoors
56.2%
37.8%
I drew a line down the middle of the plate and put all fastballs into these two buckets: contained in the midline or exterior of it. Soderstrom hasn’t simply modified his swing charge or gotten just a few further fastballs inside; he’s modified his conduct within the two zones in reverse instructions. That change makes excellent sense; Soderstrom has carried out poorly all through his profession when he swings at fastballs away, and properly when he swings at fastballs in. He’s simply aligning his swing selections to higher match the place he’s at his greatest.
Now that Soderstrom has made this transformation, pitchers will certainly attempt to adapt to his new plan. There are two apparent counters: Work the surface of the plate with fastballs that Soderstrom is attempting his greatest to not swing at, or pair secondary pitches with inside fastballs to entice unhealthy swings. Which means again foot sliders from righties, principally. If a right-handed pitcher goals a fastball and a slider on the identical level on the interior a part of the plate, the fastball will keep largely true whereas the slider breaks towards a left-handed hitter.
Once more, it’s nonetheless early days, however Soderstrom has been attacking breaking balls that end inside way over in previous years. His chase charge on breaking balls off the within a part of the plate has roughly doubled from his earlier main league numbers. Should you’re searching one thing inside, this curveball from Bryce Miller seems fairly tempting:
And on the lookout for a fastball to drive would possibly make it tougher to put off an inside slider, even on a 3-0 depend:
It’s cool to see the consequences of an strategy change mirrored in so many various components of Soderstrom’s recreation. Wanting inside for fastballs has modified his batted ball high quality, however simply as importantly, it’s modified which pitches are best at inflicting him to chase. He’s chasing these again foot breakers at practically double his profession charge regardless of decreasing his chase charge on each different pitch/location mixture.
That’s the great thing about baseball – Soderstrom has made a change that unlocked the large energy he’s at all times proven however hardly ever tapped into. That change has fully altered one of the best ways to pitch to him – new sizzling spots, new weaknesses, the entire 9 yards. Pitchers don’t sit nonetheless whereas hitters change; they get to make changes too. Soderstrom would possibly be capable of make his personal counter-adjustments, in fact. It helps that he has sufficient uncooked energy that he can nonetheless hit dwelling runs to the other discipline even when that’s not his aim.
So, to place it one other approach: No, it doesn’t matter very a lot that Soderstrom has a 260 wRC+ 12 video games into the season. However it does matter how he’s doing it – and he’s doing it by altering his course of for the higher. That’s very thrilling for Soderstrom’s future and for an A’s lineup that wants as many good younger hitters as it might probably get.
Word: All statistics are present by video games of April 8.
