Katie Stratman-Mimagn Photos
Baseball suffers from the identical basic contradiction as each spectator sport. It’s an leisure product, a piece of narrative nonfiction, when you like. A compelling narrative should adhere to sure norms and strictures; even when expectations are subverted, the viewers responds finest when these expectations are constructed up first.
The gamers and managers who act out the on-field drama, and the entrance workplace personnel who rent and direct them, aren’t within the enterprise of storytelling. They’re within the enterprise of problem-solving. That drawback: put runners on base and, as soon as there, to advance them residence. And to forestall one’s opponent from doing the identical.
The extra we learn about this drawback, the larger element during which it’s studied, the larger the danger {that a} answer will emerge. There is likely to be multiple strategy to pores and skin a proverbial cat, but when one technique emerges as essentially the most environment friendly, everybody will undertake it. And what’s the enjoyable in that?
Earlier in my profession, I took half in Inefficiency Week at The Ringer. This group undertaking was the brainchild of my assigning editor on the time, Ryan O’Hanlon, then a Wolf Suzuki superfan, now a number one soccer analytics authorat all times essentially the most annoyingly expert contrarian I’ve ever had the misfortune of befriending.
Ryan’s working thesis was this: The relentless pursuit of effectivity stamps out the variability that makes life compelling. As a workers, we utilized this idea to the deep cross in soccer, the shrinking community tv seasonand these shifty-eyed lunatics who take heed to podcasts in fast-forward.
My contribution: An examination of the three true outcome-heavy model of baseball that pervades the foremost leagues, then and now. This was hardly a novel perception; the time period was practically 20 years outdated once I wrote that article. And the article itself got here out eight years in the past this August.
However after practically one other decade of strategic and pedagogical give-and-take between hitters and pitchers, the juiced ball, the shift ban, the pitch clock, the sticky stuff crackdown, and the downstream results of the sign-stealing scandal (I used to be amused to look again and keep in mind that Carlos Beltrán and Mike Fiers each talked to me for this text), strikeouts and residential runs are nonetheless the working forex of baseball.
After I say TJ Friedl is the weirdest participant in baseball, I don’t imply that he rejects this binary fully. He topped out at a career-high 18 residence runs in 2023. His profession strikeout charge of 15.5% is likely to be low by right now’s requirements, however one-time AL strikeout chief Jim Rice had a profession punchout charge of 15.7%. This isn’t some Luis ARCEERZ-type whole rejection of modernity; Friedl continues to be to some extent a person of his time.
However solely to an extent. Friedl is a low-bat-speed contact hitter (fifteenth percentile bat pace, eighth percentile hard-hit charge, 89th percentile contact charge) who’s curious about getting on base by any means mandatory. In 2023, his finest season, he hit .279 with 18 residence runs and 27 stolen bases, however he additionally goosed his OBP to .352 by getting plunked 10 instances and tapping out 17 bunt singles. And in 556 plate appearances that yr, Friedl didn’t floor into even one double play.
Friedl had a horrendous 2024 marketing campaign, marred by hamstring accidents and damaged bones in his wrist and thumb, in addition to a precipitous drop in BABIP. Friedl’s down yr was, I consider, a significant factor within the Reds’ report regressing by 5 video games from 2023 to 2024.
However he’s again on observe in 2025, and weirder than ever.
In 2023, Friedl’s batting stance was excessive: left foot on the again line of the field, with one of many 15 most excessive open angles in baseball. In 2024, he introduced his toes barely nearer collectively and closed up his stance just a few levels, and suffered the outcomes I simply talked about.
However after he acquired wholesome, Friedl saved with it in 2025, and he’s hitting .292/.381/.419. It’s doable that is the results of batted ball luck that’s pretty much as good in 2025 because it was rotten a yr in the past, however I’m unsure.
As you may anticipate from somebody with such an open stance (27 levels is likely to be closed for Friedl, but it surely’s nonetheless Rafael Devers-like in comparison with the norm), Friedl pulls the ball a ton.
There’s nothing in his spray chart that’s hit remotely far to the other subject. And insofar as Friedl ever makes arduous contact, he doesn’t do it to the other subject. Out of 247 hitters with 100 or extra balls in play this yr, Friedl is 229th in common EV to the other subject. His common exit velo to the pull aspect is 8.1 mph greater than his common exit velo the opposite manner, the 52nd-largest drop-off out of these 247 batters.
The most important change in Friedl’s batted ball profile from final yr to this yr is that he’s hitting fewer fly balls; his FB% has dropped from 27.9% to 19.8%, the sixth-biggest year-on-year lower within the league.
A standard hitter would view that as a detrimental, however Friedl is a left-handed hitter with good bat management, a historical past of being certainly one of baseball’s finest bunters, and a man who can steal a base. Perhaps he could make that Jake Mangum motion work. Friedl does have a .358 batting common and .343 BABIP in opposition to the shift this yr, however he’s not pumping groundballs by holes on the left aspect of the infield. Quite the opposite, his pull charge on grounders is 62.8%, the best mark of his profession. Greater than that, Friedl’s legs seem to have been sapped by his hamstring accidents; his top-end pace isn’t what it was in 2023.
Nonetheless, he’s hitting extra line drives. Not arduous line drives — Friedl’s HardHit% on liners is lower than 50% — however he’s elevated his LD% to from 17.5% to 24.3%. Even in 2023, he wasn’t cracking the 20% mark.
He’s additionally getting higher enter on his batted balls. Friedl was already a selective hitter, however in 2025 he’s chasing simply 18.1% of pitches exterior the zone, down from 24.0% in 2024. That makes him one of many 10 choosiest certified hitters in baseball.
What occurs when a hitter has a line drive charge of 20% or higher, a chase charge of 25% or much less, and a contact charge of 85% or extra? He often has a great season. There are 9 certified hitters this yr who match these standards.
Certified Hitters With the Aforementioned Qualities
I didn’t know once I ran that search that I used to be about to finish up with an inventory of hitters who’re essentially the most overrepresented in FanGraphs’ editorial content material relative to their efficiency, however what are you gonna do?
Inside that group, solely Kwan has a decrease common EV and HardHit% than Friedl, however Friedl additionally has a 52.8% pull charge. That’s second on this group behind solely (that’s proper, good guess) Paredes. Lee (42.5%) is the one different one of many 9 with a pull charge over 39%.
So right here we now have an especially high-contact, low-exit-velo hitter who by no means chases and by no means swings and misses. Plus, Friedl continues to be doing all that grinder stuff. He’s been hit by three pitches and has a league-leading 5 bunt hits.
I don’t wish to name a hitter with a mid-80s contact charge and a .380 OBP “inefficient,” as a result of he clearly isn’t. However he’s delightfully unorthodox, and as soon as once more he’s discovering inventive methods to win.
