12:01
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us! It’s a beautiful day right here in Brooklyn, and whereas that will not make a distinction to you if you happen to’re looking at a pc display, it’s lightening my temper only a bit.
12:01
Jay Jaffe: Immediately I’ve bought a chunk on the Twins’ just-completed 13-game successful streak. That’s within the pipeline and may go up shortly.
12:04
Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow night at 7 PM ET, I’ll be collaborating in a SABR roundtable with reference to the just lately reinstated Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, together with Keith O’Brien (creator of the current Rose bio Charlie Hustle) and ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr., who has reported on the reinstatement efforts concerning each Rose and Jackson. Jacob Pomrenke, an professional on Jackson and the 1919 Black Sox scandal, will function moderator. https://sabr.org/newest/this-week-in-sabr-may-16-2025#shoelessjoe
12:05
Jay Jaffe: And with that housekeeping out of the way in which, on with the present!
12:06
David Stearns: How gross is it that guys like Klapisch and Madden Yankee apologists are going after Soto and making up tales about him as a result of he left the Yankees?
12:08
Jay Jaffe: A lot of the Soto protection recently constitutes a darkish chapter in NYC baseball media historical past. He’s the most effective hitters on the planet, he’s in a little bit of a stoop in comparison with his regular efficiency. Studying into his each gesture or non-gesture whereas that goes on is simply silly and determined.
12:08
MVP Race: Am I a tighter race than I might sound? Decide is god mode however like Cal Raleigh goes Demi-god mode within the hardest place within the sport… At what level do we’ve got a dialog?
12:09
Jay Jaffe: Name me in late August, when Decide is now not hitting .400 or placing up a wRC+ that’s lower than 80 factors higher than the 2nd-best hitter.
12:11
Jacky: Do you suppose Pete Rose can be inducted into the corridor of fame finally?
12:13
Jay Jaffe: As I wrote in March (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/never-is-a-long-long-time-permanent-inelig…), by no means and perpetually are each imponderably lengthy instances so the chances are high that some day he’s elected. Nonetheless, for causes I went into within the piece linked above, I don’t suppose it’s going to be computerized, and it’s fully doable he falls quick a number of instances.
12:13
Your Title: When ought to the Pirates commerce Skenes? For instance, does having 4 years of management left fetch far more than having 3 years? -depressed in Pittsburgh
12:16
Jay Jaffe: 4 years of management is mostly gonna deliver again greater than three years, however — if the Pirates do attain the purpose of buying and selling him — loads will rely on his current efficiency and what’s recognized about his well being, which might range and probably delay the window to commerce him. Likewise, commerce deadlines can goose the returns a bit as a result of they’re higher-leverage conditions for groups to deal.
It’s fairly miserable to be speaking about this as an inevitability however the previous 30 years of the franchise doesn’t provide loads of causes to be optimistic almost about retaining Skenes.
12:16
Jay Jaffe: Blame Nutting.
12:17
Al: Are there loads of sources (coaching employees / teaching / idk dietician?) obtainable to gamers on the huge league degree that aren’t obtainable to the gamers within the minors? Or are groups in a position to present related help at AAA/AA? Is that this one of many issues the Dodgers are additionally the most effective at?
12:20
Jay Jaffe: Sure, the sources are typically larger on the main league degree than within the minors almost about all of the stuff you point out. The services and gear are higher; I don’t suppose you’re prone to come throughout a type of Trajekt Arc hitting machines in Double A. There are extra coaches round, in order that an assistant hitting coach or a director of pitching technique (if there may be one) would possibly be capable of complement what he important hitting/pitching coach is imparting
12:20
Jay Jaffe: presumably the services are higher for meals prep/weight loss plan administration as properly.
12:21
Jay Jaffe: I’m unsure that the Dodgers are the most effective at any of those however they’re in a position to be superb at them due to their willingness to spend money on these areas.
12:21
Eephus: Do you suppose J. Aranda is price holding on in gentle of the restricted enjoying time? I’ve Altuve and Donovan at 2B however Altuve has been atrocious (completely benched for now). I would like to create space for streaming pitchers however unsure who to drop. Different drop candidates are Baez & Ward. Thanks!
12:23
Tim: Hello Jay. Don’t you suppose it’s time the Corridor contemplate coaches ? Or at the least put them on the eligible record? If Joe West and Ed Montague could be thought-about, shouldn’t Leo Mazzone, Charlie Lau, Frank Crosetti and others?
12:25
Jay Jaffe: I don’t see it occurring when it comes to Corridor membership although it could be cool to see a lifetime award granted for the most effective of them. The coaches you talked about are well-known and for good purpose, however there are means too many shifting elements to get an actual sense of how a lot they improved a participant or a workforce.
12:25
drplantwrench: ive been considering loads about Frank Robinson recently. is he by some means underrated within the HoF pantheon?
12:28
Jay Jaffe: I do suppose so. he didn’t have Mays’ aptitude or Aaron’s longevity in racking up the massive numbers, however he was proper there with them for a very long time, a incredible participant, an elite slugger and a hard-nosed competitor who selected to concentrate on his position as the sport’s first Black supervisor relatively than urgent for 3,000 hits and 600 homers.
12:29
Jay Jaffe: I at all times liked Jim Murray’s evocative quote about Robinson’s depth: “Frank Robinson at all times went into second like a man leaping by means of a skylight with a drawn Luger.” Used that because the epigram for my tribute after he handed away in 2019.
12:30
bringbackpologrounds: Do you contemplate Lindor the Third-best post-integration SS behind A-Rod and Ripken?
12:33
Jay Jaffe: I hadn’t thought of it in these phrases, and I don’t suppose he’s earned that title but; perhaps he by no means will. The reply continues to be in all probability Ernie Banks. Even when roughly half his profession was spent at first base, all seven years of his peak had been from his time at shortstop, and his 52.0 WAR trails solely these two you talked about. Lindor is barely 18th in peak WAR proper now with a number of different post-integration SS above him together with Boudreau, Yount, Trammell, Larkin, Noma, Ozzie, Jeter and Reese above him. However I believe he’ll climb that record.
12:33
John: What ought to the Crimson Sox do about Trevor Story? He had a superb April, however he has come crashing again all the way down to Earth, and the protection is now grading out as poor on high of every part else.
12:36
Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose the Crimson Sox are going to do something rash — declare him a sunk price or relegate him to the bench — as they’ve already executed sufficient to piss off one key veteran in Devers. However I think about they’re retaining their eyes on Story’s protection as Mayer develops, and I don’t suppose it’s out of the query Story might return to 2B sooner or later. As for his flagging offense, the man has missed loads of time lately and I believe he might have developed some dangerous habits that want fixing.
12:37
Plan B: It’s early, however you suppose Cashman is feeling himself over how Plan B goes?
12:37
Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose Brian Cashman sits round congratulating himself for a workforce that’s performed properly for the season’s first eight weeks, no.
12:39
Jay Jaffe: However sure, the workforce’s signings of Max Fried and Paul Goldscmidt look good, and Cody Bellinger has heated up recently to the purpose that his numbers now not make my eyes water. Devin Williams’ struggles, OTOH, are sobering and proof that he didn’t by some means acquire the Midas contact over the winter.
12:40
Sodo Mojo: Thanks for doing this one of many elements within the Mariners fast begin is the play of Randy Arozarena who’s WRC+ is 138. With Free Company approaching if he retains this up do you suppose he receives a QO from the Mariners.
12:42
Jay Jaffe: Arozarena has yet another 12 months of membership management after this one. If he continues to hit, I count on he’ll be amongst these netting a qualifying provide — if he’s nonetheless a Mariner. I wouldn’t put it previous Jerry Dipoto to flip him and acquire extra management, which could truly do Arozarena a stable if the deal is in the course of his stroll 12 months.
12:42
Ken: Who do you suppose emerges from a really mediocre AL West?
12:45
Jay Jaffe: If George Kirby and Logan Gilbert can come again as anticipated, I just like the Mariners’ probabilities. This isn’t the Astros juggernaut of yore, and the Rangers have loads that’s not going proper (Semien, Burger, Joc, Carter, again of the rotation)
12:45
PKPKPKPKPKPKPKPK: Freddie Freeman had his two highest WAR seasons after leaving ATL, and will make that three this 12 months. Dansby Swanson has put up two consecutive 4+ WAR seasons, and is on observe for a 3rd, consistency he by no means had in ATL. Max Fried is pitching at a degree he arguably by no means reached in Atlanta. William Contreras out of the blue grew to become an honest to wonderful defensive catcher after leaving ATL. Is it truthful to marvel if there’s an issue with the Braves getting probably the most out of their gamers? Or is that this only a mixture of hindsight being 20/20 and the Braves tough/up and down begin?
12:48
Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s extra the latter, not {that a} change of surroundings hasn’t helped the gamers you talked about. Freeman was excellent in ATL and gained an MVP and a World Collection. Fried was a part of that success and isn’t going to proceed posting a 1.x ERA perpetually. Even Swanson’s finest 12 months by WAR and wRC+ was his stroll 12 months.
12:49
Jay Jaffe: Even when the likes of Albies and Riley can’t attain their earlier heights, what the Braves have executed with their largely homegrown core over the previous a number of seasons has been mighty spectacular and I’m not about to close the door on them persevering with to achieve success.
12:50
War2d2: Hey Jay! What do the assorted groups that want closers (and even purposeful center reduction) do at this level? Phillies and Cubs come instantly to thoughts. Final season it was apparent that somebody was going to win the Tanner Scott lottery, however the same commerce doesn’t actually come out at me this season.
12:50
Jay Jaffe: Prepare for the thrill of the Kyle Finnegan lottery!
12:51
Jay Jaffe: I count on Kenley Jansen to be obtainable, perhaps even Aroldis Chapman if the Crimson Sox proceed to scuffle. After which some groups might understand that their subsequent nearer is likely to be on their present roster and is only one tweak of a pitch grip away from dominating.
12:51
nate: I noticed a mock commerce proposal with Skenes to the braves in change for Baldwin, Smith-Shawver, Caminiti and alveraz. Disregarding the plausibility, which aspect would come on high
12:52
Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose anyone must be buying and selling for the late Ken Caminiti proper now.
12:52
Laura: Alcantara,maintain or drop? Positive do miss dwelling in Prospect Park.
12:53
Jay Jaffe: Is likely to be time to drop him because the outcomes haven’t improved within the least.
12:53
Tj: In case you had a $700MM contract, wouldn’t you hustle each time you hit the ball?!!
12:54
Jay Jaffe: If I had a $700 million contract i’d wish to be sure that I’m as wholesome as doable for so long as doable realizing that I’ll nonetheless be enjoying whereas these previous white shit-stirrers are half-forgotten.
12:54
Jonah: Does “feeling like a Corridor-of-Famer” issue in any respect into your HOF analysis or voting? And when followers or writers say somebody “appears like a Corridor-of-famer” (or doesn’t), how a lot of that’s due to on-field play vs. issues like demeanor, off-field stuff, and even seems to be? Enthusiastic about two sabermetric darlings who’ve had main Corridor debates just lately in Bobby Abreu and Scott Rolen, each of whom Phillies followers of that period steadily say “didn’t really feel like Corridor-of-famers” regardless of metrics that appear to again up a case for induction.
12:55
Jay Jaffe: It’s a small half in my evaluations. I’d prefer to suppose that the work I’ve executed with JAWS has illustrated that generally greatness is hiding in plain sight, as not every part that offers a participant worth reveals up within the antiquated field scores we grew up studying.
12:57
Jay Jaffe: Thus there are under-recognized nice gamers who might not have at all times gotten their due of their day. We are able to perceive why Chase Utley’s lack of Gold Gloves would possibly have an effect on how voters obtain him, whereas additionally realizing and conveying that defensive metrics present he was elite and helped make him an important participant.
12:58
RandoDude: With Oscar Gonzales getting launched by the Padres and going to the NPB, how does that work? Are NPB scouts tampering by sniffing round?
1:03
Jay Jaffe: Gonzalez was within the minors when he was launched — a request the Padres granted so he might head to Japan. I’m unsure if it’s within the uniform participant contract or if it’s particularly a part of some minor league offers, however many contracts do have outs — if you happen to’re not on the key league roster at a sure date you may elect free company — or upward mobility clauses. Gonzalez’s agent might have had earlier contact with an NPB workforce, and with him within the minors, I’m guessing he would have been allowed to debate upgrading his circumstances.
1:03
Tj: Any ideas on whether or not Eddie Cicotte would possibly finally be on a poll? Or any of the opposite “black Sox”
1:04
Jay Jaffe: Doubt it. No one has let widespread tradition pull the wool over their eyes concerning Cicotte’s participation within the scheme the way in which they’ve Jackson’s. Like Jackson, he took the gamblers’ cash. Full cease, that must be disqualifying.
1:05
HOF: Personally I care much less about retaining Rose out now that he can’t revenue from it and listen to the cheers. Emotionally these are the issues that trouble me. However I do know your individual emotions and he was an terrible individual so I’d nonetheless relatively him keep out
1:06
Jay Jaffe: I perceive that viewpoint, and it serves to remind us that Pete Rose didn’t win by being reinstated. He nonetheless misplaced — revenue and adulation and the cheers he would have acquired — and he earned that loss huge time.
1:07
War2d2: re:coaches, that Don Zimmer isn’t within the Corridor only for being Don Zimmer is a tragedy.
1:08
Jay Jaffe: He’s within the Corridor of Well-known For Having a Plate in His Head
1:08
Pudge: I actually, really need Mike Elias to play a sport of Catan sooner or later to study a factor or two about primary useful resource allocation. You possibly can’t win the sport with simply sheep! That you must purchase some ore sooner or later! It doesn’t matter how wonderful your sheep pipeline is! And the ore he does purchase is Cole Irvin, Trevor Rodgers, Kyle Gibson, ….
1:10
Jay Jaffe: And I really need individuals to consider all the scorching air David Rubenstein spewed about spending huge in Baltimore when he first purchased the workforce versus the truth that he’s an enormous voice in beating the drum for a wage cap. The proprietor units the finances, and the GM/POBO spends the cash. The latter might spend it ways in which don’t pan out, however I’m not able to imagine (as some have prompt) that Elias was telling Rubenstein to not spend on pitching.
1:10
Visitor: how do i entry bullpen knowledge?
1:11
Jim: With Alvarado out for 80 video games and the postseason, Phillies followers have resumed their clamoring for an impression reliever like Mason Miller. Isn’t it higher to churn by means of AAA arms and attempt to hit a lottery ticket for six weeks (NOT Andrew Painter) than to mortgage precise prospect capital for a not-sure factor?
1:13
Jay Jaffe: the Phillies have time to do each, to take a look at their in-house choices and to make an impression transfer on the deadline, whether or not for Miller or another person. Sure, Miller will take actual capital to amass, however he’s bought 3 years of membership management after this so it’s not only a fleeting acquisition.
1:13
Boog: Is now the time for an Adley or Gunnar extension, to sign to the workforce and the followers that the window is just not closing for the O’s simply but?
1:14
Jay Jaffe: it definitely wouldn’t damage issues but it surely’s uncommon to see extensions signed in-season and proper now, I’m not certain both of these gamers is wanting round and considering, “Signal me up for 10 extra years of this”
1:15
Jake: In gentle of Devers refusal to play a distinct place, do you suppose a part of Javy Baez’s current renaissance may very well be on account of a place change? Or one thing totally different?
1:16
Jay Jaffe: Let’s be clear about Devers: what the Crimson Sox had been asking — for a participant who didn’t get any reps within the subject throughout spring coaching as he rehabbed his shoulders, and whom the workforce bumped to a DH position by signing one other free agent — to study a model new place on the fly in mid-season — was unreasonable.
1:20
Jay Jaffe: sure, you’d like each participant to be gung-ho about embracing a problem however not everyone seems to be wired the identical means.
As for Báez, I noticed it prompt someplace that the chance to play for a superb workforce after a number of years of doing so for a foul one might have offered some motivation, however he’s been a flexible participant since reaching the majors, and his worst seasons had been those he was enjoying solely shortstop.
1:21
PPI: Now that we’ve had a pair years of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, what are your ideas? Do we have to clear up the issue of groups calling up prospects early however then sending them down rapidly in the event that they don’t hit the bottom working to keep away from the participant incomes a full 12 months of service time?
1:23
Jay Jaffe: The PPI appears OK to me. I don’t see an issue if a workforce calls up a prospect however then sends him down if he doesn’t carry out, because it’s completely acceptable to keep in mind aggressive issues in terms of participant promotion.
1:24
Ross: What do you make of Julio? He’s placing out much less and strolling extra, however we are actually 4 years of trending down wRC+ at 148, 128, 116, and 112 (small pattern for that final one clearly)? He’s nonetheless a high 30 participant in baseball, however he appears like such a disappointment in comparison with expectations. Do you suppose he ever ascends to perennial high 10 participant or are there too many holes in his sport for that degree of consistency?
1:25
Jay Jaffe: There’s a lot expertise there and he’s nonetheless simply 24. I see the diminishing returns and perceive the frustration, however I’m under no circumstances able to rely him out.
1:26
Larry: What do you suppose is occurring with Matt McLean? He has been horrible on the plate to date this 12 months. Do you suppose he’ll bounce again and at what level does enjoying time grow to be a danger?
1:29
Jay Jaffe: lacking a full 12 months on account of harm can take a very long time to beat. Proper now McLain is making good contact, however he’s placing out nearly 33% of the time, an enormous spike significantly on condition that he’s swinging much less and chasing lower than 2023. To me this means rust could also be his largest downside, and if it’s a shoulder harm he’s getting back from, there perhaps bodily or psychological the explanation why he doesn’t fairly belief it but.
1:30
One thing I came upon: Wanting up one thing to see how uncommon it could be if Decide ended up with .330/50 hr, and there’s by no means been a season with 50 hr between Bonds 01 (.328) and a Foxx season at .349. However anyway if he can handle .330 50 it’ll be the primary time since Mantle 56
1:30
Jay Jaffe: Very attention-grabbing notice!
1:31
Fall Basic: Would 400 profession house runs get Kyle Schwarber into the Corridor of Fame?
1:32
Jay Jaffe: No, and I don’t even suppose I might help him getting in with 500. Between horrible protection and a DH-only path going ahead he’s not going to finish up with anyplace near David Ortiz’s 55 profession bWAR (he’s at 17 and is in his age-32 season).
1:33
Ollie North: Alcantara is carrying a (clean) uniform on September 1
1:34
Jay Jaffe: Marlins. He’s signed by means of subsequent 12 months, with an possibility for 2027, and there’s no purpose to commerce him whereas his worth is so depressed.
1:36
Leland: Hello Jay! What do the Giants do with Jordan Hicks? He pitched his means out of the rotation, and has not had success to this point within the bullpen regardless of how laborious he throws. He’s owed a ton of cash. No simple decisions!
1:39
Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose it’s price scrapping your complete experiment simply but as a result of the stuff is there; the fastball grades out low through PitchingBot and Stuff+ however the sinker, slider and (to date rarely-used) splitter all grade properly. If I’m the Giants I’m making an attempt to make tweaks to get him again to being a member of the rotation as an alternative of simply one other bullpen arm.
1:39
Paulie_Eff: Yordan Alvarez’ hand = Kyle Tucker’s shin? What to make of this Astro’s IL shenanigans?
1:40
Jay Jaffe: Shenanigans? Every little thing I’ve examine Alvarez says he’s not able to swing at full energy but. I’m certain they need him again
1:40
Visitor: Hello Jay! New to your content material. My son performs for the Canadians. I used to be searching for statcast sort knowledge, which I perceive I can’t get on the excessive A degree. Taking a look at your web page, you’ve gotten have some superb knowledge I’m within the technique of trying out! Your X profile is locked however I did simply observe you.
1:42
Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the sort phrases however a) it’s not MY knowledge, it’s the information of my employer; and b) there’s no level in following me on Xitter as I don’t publish there anymore. Comply with me on Bluesky at @jayjaffe.bsky.social as an alternative.
1:43
War2d2: Followup about potential closers: you stated groups would possibly understand their subsequent nearer is already on the workforce. That made me consider Ben Brown on the Cubs—he’s a 2-pitch FA/KC pitcher that largely will get by (to the extent that he even does) on elite velo for a starter. I really feel like his finest place within the pen the place he can simply grip it and rip it. Ideas?
1:45
Jay Jaffe: That definitely matches the reliever profile, and odds are that it’s his eventual destiny, however I don’t suppose it’s vital to surrender on him as a starter but.
1:45
Don Camillo: Kenny Lofton highest CF JAWS not within the Corridor, and by no means actually contended on the poll. Is he going on this 12 months Eras?
1:48
Jay Jaffe: he might not even get on the poll given the gang of gamers that did get substantial help on BBWAA ballots — Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Kent, Sheffield. Electorally talking, there’s nearly no future for a participant who went one-and-done on the writers’ poll; the Historic Overview Committees have resisted placing such gamers on ballots (Simmons is the one one to do it twice — and the one one elected — and he had a vocal proponent on the committee).
1:48
Jay Jaffe: However no, i don’t count on Lofton to be elected anytime quickly
1:49
Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, that’s it from me for right now! thanks a lot for stopping by, and do take a look at that SABR Zoom factor tomorrow if you happen to can’t get sufficient of the Rose/Jackson dialogue (sorry, needed to cross on a superb however prolonged q right here as a result of it could take a lot time to do justice).
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior author for FanGraphs, the creator of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Rating) metric for Corridor of Fame evaluation. He based the Futility Infielder web site (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports activities Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring visitor on MLB Community and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Corridor of Fame voter since 2021. Comply with him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
