The burden of
Donald Trump
‘s tariffs is being felt in a number of sectors of the Canadian
labour market
, with job vacancies in some industries dropping beneath pre-pandemic ranges, says an economist.
Job vacancies
fell 3.8 per cent within the first quarter from the fourth quarter of 2024 and had been down 18.1 per cent from the identical quarter final 12 months, in line with
Statistics Canada information launched Tuesday.
“The final message of the report is we now have a slowing labour market,” Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at credit score union Alberta Central, mentioned. “We’re seeing indicators of elevated slack within the financial system and companies that aren’t prepared to rent.”
He mentioned tariffs are one of many components having an impact on vacancies, mentioning that vacancies within the trade-sensitive retail sector fell to their lowest degree for the reason that fourth quarter of 2016. Warehousing and transportation vacancies dropped to their lowest degree for the reason that third quarter of 2017.
Different sectors the place openings have contracted beneath 2019 ranges embody data and tradition and finance and insurance coverage.
General, job vacancies are right down to common ranges recorded pre-pandemic.
Nonetheless, the declining variety of vacancies alerts that Canada’s job market is “stalling,” St-Arnaud mentioned.
Statistics Canada has tracked a rising unemployment fee and destructive common job positive aspects from February to Might.
The jobless fee in Canada at the moment stands at seven per cent, and has steadily risen since dropping to a report low of 4.8 per cent in July 2022.
The emptiness report strains up with what the job numbers have been telegraphing, St-Arnaud mentioned.
Within the first quarter, the variety of unemployed individuals rose 200,900, whereas the variety of job vacancies fell by 115,200.
That led to the unemployment-to-job emptiness ratio — the variety of individuals with out work per place — rising to 2.9 per cent within the first quarter in comparison with 2.8 per cent within the fourth quarter and two per cent a 12 months in the past.
Together with tariffs, “comparatively weak” financial progress over the previous few quarters has discouraged companies from making new hires, one thing that’s confirmed out by a “destructive” Canadian Federation of Unbiased Enterprise hiring intentions index.
Slowing inhabitants progress curbed demand and that, too, has dampened hiring, St-Arnaud mentioned.
One other symptom of shrinking vacancies and demand for employees is the slowing common hourly wage progress.
Statistics Canada additionally mentioned vacancies fell essentially the most for jobs that known as for a highschool diploma or much less.
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St-Arnaud mentioned the primary quarter outcomes doubtless pave the best way for extra of the identical within the second quarter.
“What we’re seeing will doubtless proceed: the identical development of (a) continued, gradual, form of extra marginal decline within the emptiness fee going ahead,” he mentioned.
• Electronic mail: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com
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