Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Pictures
Jose Altuve has been doing the identical factor for a very long time now. The 35-year-old Astro is closing in on 250 profession dwelling runs even if he’s by no means possessed the look, and even the swing, of a conventional slugger. Altuve has by no means hit the ball laborious and has at all times chased a bit greater than you’d like, however he’s wonderful at making contact, which helps him keep away from strikeouts, and he’s wonderful at pulling the ball within the air, which helps him benefit from that contact. Altuve has ridden these pulled fly balls to a profession 114 SLG+ and 101 ISO+. If we begin in 2015, the start of the Statcast period and the 12 months he actually began to concentrate on lifting and pulling, these numbers are 119 and 113. This 12 months, nonetheless, for the primary time, I’m genuinely beginning to surprise how Altuve continues to be doing it.
Altuve is working a mean exit velocity of simply 85 mph. Right here’s what that appears like within the context of his profession. It’s the bottom mark he’s ever put up by almost a full mile per hour, and it’s 1.5 mph off the common he put up simply final 12 months:
These numbers look much more stark once we put them within the context of the remainder of the league. Altuve is working the second-lowest common exit velocity amongst all certified batters. Consider any slap-happy contact hitter – Luis ARCEERZ, Jacob Wilson, Sal Frelick, GERALDO PERDOMO – Altuve has a decrease common exit velocity than all of them. However like clockwork, Altuve continues to be working a 120 wRC+ and batting .280. With 19 dwelling runs, he’s on tempo for 27, the best mark he’s put up since 2022. Altuve continues to be lifting and pulling, lifting and pulling, making contact, avoiding strikeouts, rinse and repeat, despite the fact that his contact high quality has dropped to about as little as you may probably think about.
A very powerful context right here is Altuve’s Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity. At 101.5 mph, it’s truly greater than the 100 mph he put up final season, but it surely’s nonetheless the third lowest of his profession. Amongst certified gamers, it places him in simply the twelfth percentile. When a participant has a decrease common exit velocity however an identical Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity, it implies that their top-end energy hasn’t modified; they’re simply mishitting the ball extra typically, buying and selling medium contact for weak contact. The numbers bear that out. On balls that aren’t hard-hit, Altuve’s common exit velocity is 78.1 mph, the bottom mark of his profession since 2015. Sports activities Data Options additionally tracks soft-hit charge, and Altuve’s is 20.6%, the best since his partial rookie season in 2011. Right here’s one of the simplest ways I can present this to you. The graph under exhibits the proportion of balls in play that go away Altuve’s bat under 80 mph. Till this season, he had by no means reached 30%; he’d solely surpassed 28.5% as soon as. He’s now at 33.5%:
The superior bat monitoring numbers see the identical factor. Altuve’s squared-up charge is down from final season. His common bat pace is holding regular, but it surely’s barely sooner if you happen to solely have a look at pitches over the guts of the plate, as a result of he’s assembly the ball two full inches additional out in entrance than he did final 12 months (and bat pace will increase all through the swing). In different phrases, Altuve appears to be getting began earlier with a view to meet the ball even additional out in entrance to maximise his lift-and-pull recreation. At 56.3%, Altuve is working the best pull charge of his whole profession, and he ranks second amongst all certified gamers. He’s tied with Nolan Arenadoone other mid-30s lifter-puller, for the best popup charge amongst certified gamers.
Over the course of his whole profession, Altuve’s lopsided spray charts have been artworks. He’s able to spraying the ball everywhere in the area, however he solely hits it laborious sufficient to do harm to the pull facet. While you simply have a look at the bottom hits, the asymmetry is jarring, and this season’s chart is shaping as much as be a pointillist masterpiece. He’s hit only one reverse area dwelling run and hasn’t managed to blast a base hit over the suitable fielder’s head as soon as. It’s a superb use of detrimental area:
I’ve been driving at a well-recognized narrative right here. It’s the story of a participant who’s compensating for a slowing bat. Altuve continues to be hitting nicely and continues to be able to hitting the ball as laborious as he did earlier than, however he has to cheat an increasing number of to take action. He’s moved again within the field a bit. He’s getting began earlier so he can meet the ball additional out in entrance, which has precipitated one of many highest whiff charges of his profession and extra mishits. It nonetheless works as a result of Altuve nonetheless makes a whole lot of contact and is great at optimizing it.
To be clear, I don’t know whether or not that’s what’s truly happening. Altuve could possibly be compensating for some slight damage, or he may have simply determined that that is how he desires his swing to look now. He’s additionally revamped his batting stance, beginning much more open this 12 months than he has up to now. However an older participant compensating for a slower swing actually appears like the best reply. Altuve continues to be making it work. He not appears to be like just like the man who ran a mixed 144 wRC+ from 2016 to 2023, however he’s nonetheless a productive hitter on a contending workforce. I’d like to be improper. Altuve isn’t a typical participant for thus many causes, and there’s little he may do that might shock me. He’s nonetheless only one season faraway from a 154 wRC+. But when that is what the start of the tip appears to be like like, then he’s beginning his decline as gently as doable.
