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This yr, Josh Bell returned to Washington with a brand new objective in thoughts. “What this workforce wants is slug,” he advised reporters throughout a Zoom name when he signed again in January. He defined that though he’d at all times prided himself on making contact and avoiding strikeouts – Bell’s profession strikeout price is 14% beneath the league common and his slugging share is 5% above it – he was lastly able to make use of his 6’3” body and commerce contact for energy:
That’s sort of in my DNA, however understanding MVPs the previous couple of years, they hit 40-plus homers and so they would possibly strike out 150-plus occasions, however that doesn’t get talked about. The slug is a very powerful factor. That’s the place WAR is. That’s what wins video games… I’ve an enormous body, and I ought to most likely hit greater than 19 house runs a season. Hopefully, a yr from now I could be trying again on a season the place I had 40-plus and break my very own information for slug in a season. That’s the objective.
Bell got here into the season with a extra upright stance, a barely increased leg kick, and a brand new mission. “I really feel like I’m not afraid to strikeout extra if it means much less groundballs,” he stated in February. “I do know after I’m at my greatest, I don’t hit the ball on the bottom. I strike out slightly bit extra. So if I can take one and do away with the opposite, then I’ll be in a great place and the typical ought to keep the identical or go up. Time will inform.”
I deliver all this up as a result of Bell has seen an enormous change in his batted balls this season, however it’s very undoubtedly not the change he hoped to see. To date this season, he’s operating a .173 ISO, a bit down from his profession mark, however roughly consistent with what he’s executed for the final a number of years. His hard-hit price and exit velocity are almost similar to final season’s marks. So when it comes to each outcomes and uncooked contact high quality, he’s no more highly effective, however he’s not much less highly effective both. The experiment might have failed, however it didn’t blow up the laboratory.
The factor is, the laboratory did blow up. Beakers and Bunsen burners and people little sparker thingies you employ to mild the Bunsen burners are raining down throughout your complete Japanese Seaboard, as a result of Bell wasn’t simply speaking about remoted energy. He was speaking about slugging, and he’s at present operating a .358 slugging share. That’s the bottom of his total profession, and 67 factors off his 2024 mark. How did he lose a lot slug whereas his contact high quality and ISO stayed just about the identical? The reply is the explanation we’re right here. Bell is at present operating a .189 BABIP. That’s unhealthy by Bell’s requirements. He’s an enormous, sluggish, would-be energy man, however he’s by no means run horrible BABIPs. His profession .284 mark is sweet for a 95 BABIP+, beneath common, however not disastrously so. In case you didn’t main in subtraction, which means Bell is at present 95 factors beneath his profession mark.
That’s additionally unhealthy by any commonplace, ever. It’s the bottom BABIP amongst certified gamers by 28 factors. I pulled the BABIP of each participant in AL/NL historical past who made at the very least 400 plate appearances in a season. Bell is on tempo to run the second-lowest BABIP of all time, not far above second baseman Joe Gerhardtwho batted .155 with a .176 BABIP for the New York Giants in 1885. Fortunately, what Gerhardt lacked as a hitter, he greater than made up for along with his mustache.
The underside of the checklist is definitely fairly enjoyable. It’s acquired a number of hitters who simply occurred to have horrible years, however it’s additionally filled with house run-hitting specialists like Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Dave Kingman, Mark McGwireand even Roger Maris in his record-setting 1961 season. When each ball you hit exhausting goes out of the ballpark, you’ll run a rock-bottom BABIP, as a result of your balls in play are simply the weakly hit balls that stay.
I really feel pretty assured that Gerhardt’s numbers are incomplete – it’s exhausting to belief the scoring in a season that occurred three years earlier than the ballpoint pen was invented – so if we restrict ourselves to certified gamers from the trendy period, Bell finds himself seven factors beneath the .196 report set by Toronto’s Aaron Hill in 2010. If we alter for the league common, Bell has a BABIP+ of 64, nicely beneath the 66 put up by Hill and Cleveland’s Willie Kirkland in 1962.
As at all times, we should always be aware that we’re solely a 3rd of the way in which via the season. BABIP is, by definition, extraordinarily depending on luck, so it’s most unlikely that Bell will truly set this report. We’d count on any participant operating a BABIP that low to regress to the imply, and Bell started doing so a pair weeks in the past.
All the identical, it’s exhausting to think about issues getting this unhealthy for no cause in any way. It’s not simply luck, and there are many actual variations in Bell’s recreation. He has dropped his groundball-to-fly-ball price to 1.22, down from 1.50 final season and the bottom he’s put up since 2019, one of the best marketing campaign of his profession. His 38.2% fly ball price is the very best of his profession, and largely as a result of a career-high 18.3% of his balls in play have been pulled within the air, 18% of his fly balls have gone for house runs. That’s not an enormous quantity, however it’s his highest in years and it places him within the 79th percentile amongst certified gamers. So in a sure means, Bell actually has succeeded at his objective. Not less than from the left facet, Bell is lifting the ball within the air and hitting house runs.
Statcast’s bat monitoring numbers present that from the left facet of the plate, Bell has certainly seemed a bit completely different. Though his swing path is angled roughly the identical because it was the final two seasons, he’s assembly the ball farther out in entrance of the plate – or, extra precisely, he’s not assembly the ball as far behind the plate as he used to – serving to him report the next bat pace than he did in 2024 (although not 2023), and giving him a barely steeper assault angle, permitting him to carry the ball extra.
Even so, that hasn’t helped Bell hit the ball within the air extra, or at the very least not but. This season, 44.5% of his batted balls from the left facet have been fly balls and line drives, his lowest mark since 2022. Nevertheless, when he has hit the ball within the air from the left facet, he’s been actually spectacular; his 98.3-mph common exit velocity is the very best of his profession by a large margin — however he’s not seeing outcomes simply but. He’s hitting deep fly balls that get caught on or earlier than the warning monitor, however fewer line drives that fall in for singles or find yourself within the hole for doubles. Bell has only one double and one triple this season (and the triple was an absolute present that ought to’ve been a single). His slug is coming virtually solely from homers and singles.
A few of this may occasionally simply be unhealthy luck. Bell will probably hit extra line drives or see just a few extra fly balls make it previous the warning monitor because the climate heats up. Nevertheless, though the bat monitoring numbers don’t look all that completely different, it does seem to be promoting out for pull-side energy has affected his swing. He’s popping the ball up extra. When he hits the ball on the bottom from the left facet, he’s operating the very best pull price, however the lowest launch angle, exit velocity, and hard-hit price of his profession. Clearly, his swing isn’t as geared for groundballs anymore, however he’s nonetheless hitting a whole lot of them, to a worse spot on the sphere, and the outcomes have been very unhealthy.
To recap, from the left facet, Bell is pulling the ball within the air extra, simply as he’d hoped. However the outcome has been a whole lot of fly ball outs and popups. Furthermore, he’s additionally pulling the ball on the bottom extra, leading to tons of weak outs to first and second. Bell’s .208 BABIP from the left facet is greater than 80 factors decrease than it’s been in any earlier season.
When Bell is batting from the fitting facet, the other has occurred. His bat pace is up some, however he’s making contact deeper than ever and his bat is flatter than ever. He’s lifting the ball at roughly the identical price he has over the previous couple of years, however these air balls aren’t not falling as a result of he’s hitting them extra weakly than ever. His BABIP from the fitting facet is .095, the worst of his profession by greater than 110 factors.
The spray chart says all of it right here. Bell is hitting extra fly balls and fewer groundballs. However he’s not hitting the ball a lot more durable, so a whole lot of these fly balls are simply lengthy outs. He’s additionally not squaring the ball up nicely, which suggests fewer line drives and much more straightforward groundball outs to the fitting facet.
The brand new bat monitoring knowledge has actually emphasised the extent to which hitting is about trade-offs. Positive, one of the best gamers within the recreation are those who can do a number of issues nicely. They acknowledge pitches nicely, which permits them to get in one of the best place to hit the ball. They’re versatile and powerful, which permits them to break pitches over a big space of the strike zone. And so they’ve acquired the kinesthetic intelligence to determine tips on how to alter their swings with out leaking bat pace. However that’s a uncommon assortment of presents reserved for the easiest on this planet. Most hitters can’t do every little thing. They’re continuously making an attempt to determine which strategy, which stance, which stride, which load, which bat path will permit them to benefit from the presents they’ve whereas exposing as few of their weaknesses as potential.
Bell deserves an enormous quantity of credit score for deciding to reinvent himself at age 32, with 9 large league seasons below his belt. I’m not even certain I’m able to conclude that this experiment is a failure simply but. Bell’s new strategy has uncovered some new flaws, however it’s nonetheless early on. He received’t keep this unfortunate, and he’ll most likely enhance as he will get extra expertise with this strategy. “It’s not going to come back in a single evening or one week,” he stated just a few weeks in the past. “It’s stacking at-bats and stacking sequence and stacking months at this level to attempt to make up for a number of the ruts that I’ve been in the previous couple of weeks.” He took a primary step at that over the weekend. In his previous 5 video games, he’s batting .429 with three homers, and he’s raised his BABIP by 16 factors. Once I pitched this text, he was beneath outdated Joe Gerhardt, and his BABIP+ was at a mere 60. Whenever you’re beginning out this low, there’s just one path left to go.
Nevertheless issues shake out, Bell is unlikely to set a brand new report. If we assume that he performs the remainder of the season with the identical price of plate appearances per recreation, he’d solely should submit a .200 BABIP the remainder of the way in which with a view to keep away from breaking Hill’s report. That’s an extremely low quantity. Bell’s the one certified participant below .217 proper now! Furthermore, if he does hold operating such an abysmal BABIP, even for a workforce as hopeless because the Nationals, he’s most likely going to lose some enjoying time, which may hold him from qualifying. That’s why it’s so exhausting to set the unhealthy information. When you hold enjoying badly, you received’t hold enjoying.
You may even argue that Bell hasn’t gone far sufficient with this new strategy. His batting stance doesn’t look all that completely different. His contact and strikeout charges aren’t that removed from his profession marks, and as I discussed earlier, his bat monitoring numbers don’t present a a lot steeper swing in any respect. He’s additionally been a lot much less aggressive, operating his lowest zone-swing price in years, and the bat monitoring metrics present that he’s assembly the ball deeper than 91% of the batters within the league. That’s not what it appears to be like like when somebody’s attacking the ball and trying to do injury. Perhaps Bell will resolve to desert this experiment and return to doing what he does greatest. After such a tough begin, it could be exhausting responsible him. However assuming his batted ball luck continues to rebound, it won’t be that dangerous to proceed the experiment.
