This week’s MLBTR Mailbag appears to be like at Ryan Helsley’s worth, potential upgrades for the Giants, some Rangers commerce candidates, the Brewers’ infield, MacKenzie Gore’s breakout and why he is a troublesome commerce candidate to examine, the Cubs’ bench, the Padres’ outfield and extra!
Let’s dive in!
Sam asks…
Given Helsley’s dip in efficiency this yr, would the Cardinals get extra future worth/prospects by buying and selling him or providing a QO? This questions assumes that the choice is made fully on boosting the farm system, not with any concerns for this yr’s workforce or the ’25 playoffs.
The idea there may be essential, as I am under no circumstances satisfied the Cardinals will commerce Helsley given the way wherein they’ve trounced preseason expectations from nearly everybody (myself one thousand p.c included). From a pure take a look at future worth, although, the extra prudent transfer to realize future worth is to commerce him earlier than July 31. Holding him makes additional assumptions than the one you listed on this query; it assumes that Helsley will keep wholesome and that he’ll pitch effectively sufficient to advantage a qualifying provide at season’s finish. Neither is a given.
Additional, there isn’t any certainty that he’d signal a contract value $50MM or extra even when he rejects a qualifying provide. That is the edge wanted to safe a compensatory choose after the primary spherical of the draft. If Helsley signed for beneath $50MM, that comp choose would come between Aggressive Stability Spherical B and the third spherical, some 40 picks later.
If Helsley is wholesome and pitching effectively, there is a good case for him to land that $50MM+, however we won’t assume he will get it. There have been cases up to now of relievers turning down a QO, in search of a large payday, and lingering in free company as a result of their preliminary ask was too excessive and since groups had exhausted their offseason budgets by the point that asking worth got here down. Cardinals followers ought to be fairly accustomed to this phenomenon; it is how Greg Holland landed in St. Louis again in 2018.
So, there’s quite a lot of presumption simply to get to the purpose the place the Cardinals choose within the No. 31-35 vary with the comp choose for Helsley — after which there’s the matter of truly drafting the proper participant there as effectively. There are apparent, bigger-picture advantages to including that choose’s slot worth to the workforce’s 2026 draft funds, however one of the simplest ways to maximise that worth is to land a high-quality prospect there. Let’s run by way of the latest historical past of gamers chosen with QO compensation picks after the primary spherical:
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