Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports activities
No crew has been caught stealing greater than the Royals this yr. As arduous because it is perhaps to imagine, their 20 thwarted stolen base makes an attempt are probably the most within the league. Their 70.1% stolen base success charge ranks twenty seventh, as do their -2.1 weighted stolen base runs (wSB). This stands in stark distinction to what many consider because the Royals’ model of baseball. In any case, you’d have to return to 2017 to discover a full season by which the Royals didn’t rank among the many high 5 AL groups in wSB, and all the best way again to 2010 to seek out the final time their wSB was beneath league common. Because of gamers like Whit Merrifield, Jarrod Dyson, Adalberto Mondesi, Alcides Escobar and, most just lately, Bobby Witt Jr.the Royals of the 2010s and 2020s developed a status as probably the most larcenous crew within the league. From 2011-24, no crew stole extra bases, and no crew racked up extra wSB.
Kansas Metropolis’s stolen base supremacy hasn’t been restricted to 1 facet of the ball, both. From 2011-24, solely two groups allowed fewer stolen bases than the Royals, and none caught would-be basestealers at a better charge. In keeping with the stolen base part of DRS (rSB), their catchers had been twice as productive as another crew’s backstops in that interval, whereas their pitchers had been 12 runs higher than the next-best crew (the Diamondbacks) and greater than 3 times as worthwhile because the next-best AL membership (the Orioles). The Statcast numbers inform an analogous story, though they solely return to 2016. From 2016-24, Kansas Metropolis catchers ranked second in each catcher and pitcher stealing runs. No different crew positioned throughout the high 5 in each metrics. So, you can make a reasonably convincing case that stopping stolen bases is much more important to the Royals’ model of baseball than stealing bases, particularly with the best way issues have gone in 2025. Their baserunners is perhaps struggling to swipe luggage like they did up to now, however their protection has taken management of the operating sport like by no means earlier than.
The Royals have caught 47% of would-be basestealers this yr. That’s the best charge by any crew in a single season since 2005, when Yadier Molina’s Cardinals caught 51% of runners. Over the past 20 years, solely two different groups have caught even 45% of runners in a full season: the 2005 Twins, led by Joe Mauerand the 2005 Tigers, led by Ivan Rodriguez. Looks as if 2005 was an ideal yr to be a legendary catcher.
Now, I ought to level out that Kansas Metropolis’s elite success charge has are available a reasonably tiny pattern. It might solely take yet one more caught stealing to deliver the crew’s success charge as much as 50% or yet one more stolen base to push it beneath 45%. On this case, nonetheless, the small pattern isn’t a cause to disregard what the Royals are doing. Fairly the alternative: The pattern dimension is exactly what warrants our consideration. They’ve performed 57 video games and 508 1/3 defensive innings in 2025. Solely the Pink Sox have performed extra baseball. But, in these innings, the Royals have restricted their opponents to lower than half as many stolen base makes an attempt as another crew has allowed. The opposite 29 golf equipment have given up someplace between 82 (Marlins) and 26 (Mets) stolen bases this yr. The Royals have allowed solely 17 stolen base makes an attempt.
If this tempo holds, the Royals will solely see 48 stolen base makes an attempt in opposition to all of them yr. Twenty-three groups have already allowed a minimum of 48 stolen base makes an attempt this season, and it’s not even the top of Might. In 2023 and ’24, the primary two years underneath the brand new guidelines to incentivize stolen bases, just one crew allowed fewer than 100 stolen base makes an attempt in a single marketing campaign: final yr’s Royals (86). In the meantime, solely two groups on our leaderboards (the information date again to 1956) have ever had opponents try and steal fewer than 50 occasions in opposition to them in a full season: the 1956 Braves (28) and the 1956 Pirates (46). I’m additionally greater than somewhat skeptical of these figures, contemplating they’re each from the very first yr we’ve the info, and the overall recorded variety of stolen base makes an attempt by groups on offense in 1956 doesn’t match up with the overall recorded variety of stolen base makes an attempt in opposition to groups on protection. All that’s to say the Royals might be on their technique to one of many biggest seasons of stolen base deterrence any of us has ever seen.
Let that sink in. The Royals have caught potential basestealers on the highest charge within the league, although their opponents have been just about unprecedentedly cautious. To place this in context, I whipped up a stat I’m calling “adjusted stolen base makes an attempt per inning” (SBA/Inn+). As with all of our “plus” stats, a rating of 100 represents league common, whereas 90 would characterize 10% fewer stolen base makes an attempt per inning than league common, and 110 would characterize 10% extra stolen base makes an attempt per inning than league common. Two months into the season, the Royals have an SBA/Inn+ of 30. Meaning opposing baserunners have tried 70% fewer stolen bases in opposition to the Royals than they’ve in opposition to the common crew. That’s absurd! The desk beneath lists each crew that has completed a season with an SBA/Inn+ of 60 or beneath within the twenty first Century. It’s not arduous to see that the Royals are in a league of their very own proper now. They may enable stolen base makes an attempt at twice as excessive a charge over the remaining 4 months of the yr and nonetheless end with the bottom SBA/Inn+ of any crew in any full season this century:
Prime Groups of the twenty first Century by SBA/Inn+
A method the Royals have restricted stolen base makes an attempt that doesn’t actually have something to do with controlling the operating sport is that they have merely prevented runners from reaching base within the first place. Whereas their 508 1/3 defensive innings are the second most within the majors, they rank among the many backside half of groups (seventeenth) in batters confronted. Solely three golf equipment — the Rays, Rangers, and Astros — have confronted fewer batters per inning. Relatedly, Royals pitchers have held their opponents to the sixth-lowest OBP within the league.
With that stated, Royals pitchers nonetheless rank among the many high third of groups in batters confronted with a runner on first or second and the subsequent base open – also called stolen base alternatives (SBO). So, I made a decision to make one other model of an adjusted stolen base makes an attempt metric, this time utilizing SBO because the denominator. SBO is much from an ideal stat, since not all stolen base alternatives are equally prone to result in an try. To attempt to account for that, a minimum of considerably, I weighted stolen base alternatives at second base 5.7 occasions extra closely than alternatives at third, as a result of runners have been 5.7 occasions extra prone to attempt to capitalize on alternatives at second this season. By this metric — let’s name it “adjusted stolen base makes an attempt per weighted alternative” (SBA/wSBO+) — the Royals stand out much more. Their SBA/wSBO+ is 27, or 73% decrease than league common. They is perhaps expert at limiting baserunners, however that doesn’t have something to do with how effectively they’ve been limiting stolen base makes an attempt.
One other extraneous issue that always comes up in discussions about controlling the operating sport is pitcher handedness. In concept, left-handed pitchers needs to be higher at stopping stolen bases as a result of they’ve a transparent view of first base from the mound. The Royals do certainly have fairly a number of lefties on their workers this yr, together with Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Noah Cameronand Daniel Lynch IV. All advised, lefties have thrown 39.2% of the crew’s innings, the fourth-highest charge within the majors. But, the truth that the Royals have obtained about 60 extra innings from left-handed pitchers than the common crew can’t probably clarify every part that’s happening right here. In any case, eight of the 17 stolen base makes an attempt in opposition to Kansas Metropolis have include a left-hander on the mound. Certainly, and perhaps I ought to have led with this, lefties aren’t truly any higher than righties at stopping stolen base makes an attempt, a minimum of not within the age of disengagement limits. In every of the previous three years, left-handed pitchers have confronted about 26% of batters, and about 26% of stolen base makes an attempt have include a lefty on the mound. So, Kansas Metropolis’s southpaw-heavy workers can’t all take the credit score for controlling the operating sport. Merely put, the Royals have simply been actually good at this.
The disappointing irony, nonetheless, is that the Royals aren’t far forward of the pack in any measurement of stolen base prevention worth. Their drawback is that incomes an additional out on the bases is much more worthwhile than stopping a runner from taking off within the first place. It’s arduous to take advantage of their wonderful stolen base prevention abilities when different groups aren’t making an attempt to steal bases in opposition to them. Thus, in line with Baseball Savant, the Royals rank tenth in catcher stealing runs (+1). They lead the league in pitcher stealing runs (+3), however the Guardians, Orioles, and Mets (all +2) aren’t far behind. In the meantime, in line with DRS, Royals catchers rank fourth with +2 rSB, and their pitchers rank second with +4 rSB. These are all robust numbers, and the Royals don’t have any cause to be sad. Nonetheless, it’s humorous how they’re stopping stolen base makes an attempt at such an elite charge, and but it isn’t making a lot of a distinction in any particular person measurement of stolen base prevention worth in comparison with what they’ve performed in earlier seasons.
Whether or not or not it’s making a significant distinction by way of worth, there’s little doubt the Royals have performed phenomenal work controlling the operating sport. What’s tougher to determine is how they’re doing it. Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin, who share main catching duties in KC, are each wonderful at stopping stolen bases. Perez has racked up +20 catcher stealing runs (per Statcast) since 2016, and remember the fact that he debuted 5 years earlier. His numbers have declined since his peak, however he has solely had one below-average season during the last 10 years. His arm isn’t practically as robust because it as soon as was, although his trade time has improved in his mid-30s. In the meantime, Fermin has compiled +7 catcher stealing runs since his debut in 2022, and he boasts one of many quicker pop occasions within the league. But, whereas each backstops are proficient performers at this facet of their job, neither wildly stands out from the competitors by any particular person metric. Furthermore, the Royals had been fairly darn good (although not this good) at limiting stolen base makes an attempt in 2019, the yr Perez sat out recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure and effectively earlier than Fermin debuted. This goes past any particular person catcher.
It’s equally arduous to seek out any quantity that clearly units the Royals pitching workers aside, apart from its total Web Bases Prevented (per Statcast). Royals pitchers rank first in Baseball Savant’s Lead Distance Gained on stolen base alternatives, which measures how a lot floor runners acquire on common with their secondary leads — that means that runners are taking shorter secondary leads in opposition to them than they’re in opposition to another crew. Nonetheless, it’s not as in the event that they’re all that far forward of the next-best groups. In the identical vein, the Royals are one of many faster groups at delivering pitches with runners on base, in line with Baseball Savant’s pitch tempo leaderboard, however they don’t stand out in comparison with any of the opposite quickest pitching staffs. What’s extra, their common velocity on all pitches is the seventh slowest within the league, which ought to give their opponents extra time to go for an additional base. Lastly, they rank in the midst of the pack in pickoffs, with three from their pitchers and one catcher back-pick. There are many stats to show the Royals are expert at controlling the operating sport, however frustratingly little to totally clarify how they’ve been so uniquely profitable.
In the end, I don’t suppose there’s anyone measurable rationalization. Part of all this might be that the Royals are benefiting from a status that precedes them; opponents understand how nice their protection is at controlling the operating sport, in order that they aren’t even making an attempt to run. The prophecy is fulfilling itself. Past that, I believe the Royals are merely doing the entire little factor effectively, together with the abilities we will measure and, maybe extra importantly, those we will’t. Contemplating how persistently they’ve ranked among the many high groups in stolen base prevention (to not point out stealing bases on the opposite facet of the ball), that is absolutely a facet of the sport to which the group devotes additional assets and a focus. Kansas Metropolis would possibly simply know issues the remainder of us don’t. Stolen bases are on the rise for the third yr in a row, however the Royals have discovered the cheat code to maintain them at bay.
