John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Photos
Within the sixth inning of Monday’s recreation between the Blue Jays and the Cardinals, George Springer received a pitch to hit, a dangling curveball that cut up the middle of the strike zone. He acknowledged the pitch late and fouled it off:
His post-swing demeanor means that he thought of it a missed alternative, and it’s clear to see why. With a pitch like that, he was pondering additional bases; as a substitute, Andre Pallante received a strike for his troubles. Now Springer’s again was in opposition to the wall. Pallante got here again with a a lot better pitch on 1-2, however Springer spoiled it:
In contrast to the earlier miss, this regarded like a calculated act to me. Springer was late on the pitch, nevertheless it was too shut for consolation, so he took a defensive minimize, assembly the ball early in his swing and punching it harmlessly away.
Welcome to the complicated world of analyzing foul ball price. Each of Springer’s swings produced the identical outcome, however the first one was a poor end result for him and the second a fascinating one. You may argue that the second pitch would have been a ball if he hadn’t swung, however he actually wasn’t positive of that when he dedicated to swinging; residing to combat one other day in opposition to such a well-located pitch is an efficient end result.
You in all probability wouldn’t be stunned to be taught that Luis ARCEERZ, Nick Allenand Brice Take are among the many leaders in early-count foul ball price (foul balls per swing). They swing loads, make numerous contact, and spray their contact to all fields, together with foul territory in each route. On the opposite aspect of the coin, you’ve received sluggers like Bryce Harper, Aaron Decide, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.and sure, Springer. These guys don’t swing as usually, which implies just a few issues. First, they swing at higher pitches on common, which results in higher contact. Second, they make much less contact on common, and fewer contact means fewer fouls, even for a similar price of fouls-per-contact.
I’d somewhat be within the second camp than the primary there. Early-count foul balls are a waste, actually the identical as a swinging strike. They could be worse, even – baserunners can’t steal, catchers can’t block poorly and permit a handed ball. A full 46% of Arraez’s swings – 48% for league chief Wilyer Abreu – find yourself as foul balls. Positive, contact is nice, however when half of it counts as a strike, it’s loads much less engaging.
Issues change with two strikes, although. When a foul ball extends the at-bat as a substitute of ending it in a strikeout, it turns into precious as a substitute of detrimental. Have you ever ever watched Jake Cronenworth hit? With two strikes, he turns right into a lacrosse goalie, attempting to redirect every thing within the neighborhood of the strike zone. He’s not attempting to hit a homer until the pitcher actually grooves him one; he’s particularly trying to keep away from a strikeout. Cronenworth sports activities the very best foul-per-swing price in baseball with two strikes at 51.2%. It really works – he nonetheless strikes out an honest quantity due to his penchant for working deep counts, however he walks 16% of the time as a result of ultimately pitchers miss the zone.
The underside of the two-strike foul ball price checklist, alternatively, is stuffed with strikeout-prone varieties. Javier Báez makes foul contact on simply 27% of his two-strike swings. Decide, who nonetheless strikes out a ton whilst he rewrites the document books, is in the direction of the underside. So are Jackson Chourio, Shohei Ohtani, Fernando tate Jr., Kyle Schwarberand all nature of fantastic sluggers. You will get away with it for those who hit like these guys, however Andrew Vaughn, Brenton Doyle, Miguel Andujarand Michael Toglia are floundering beneath the burden of their lack of ability to combat pitches off. This isn’t a disqualifying statistic, in different phrases, nevertheless it’s certainly a nasty factor; it’s straight resulting in larger strikeout charges, and until you’ve got mild tower energy, lots of the pitches you swing at with two strikes aren’t the sort you may hit for additional bases anyway.
I’d posit that top foul ball charges earlier than two strikes are dangerous, whereas excessive foul ball charges with two strikes are good. Early within the depend, fouls are a waste, whereas late within the depend, they’re a get out of jail free card. Assuming that these two occasions are equal doesn’t make a lot sense to me; hitters behave otherwise, and if we don’t credit score them for that totally different conduct, we’re lacking one thing important concerning the act of hitting.
To measure this, I needed to put every thing on the identical scale. I first took each hitter who has swung at 200 or extra pitches early within the depend, discovered the typical foul ball per swing price, then normalized every participant’s foul ball price into z-scores. I did the identical for each hitter who has swung at 100 or extra pitches in two-strike counts. That gave me two scores for each hitter: early-count foul price and two-strike foul price. I flipped the signal of the early-count foul price scores – decrease is healthier – after which summed the 2.
This let me separate out the hitters who all the time have excessive foul ball charges or all the time have low foul ball charges – they don’t reveal this talent of fixing their method in a measurable method. Arraez, for instance, makes foul contact on 46.2% of his early-count swings and 46.3% of his two-strike swings. It’s the identical method, and since the league as an entire cuts down on their swings and makes extra foul contact with two strikes, Arraez charges under common on this metric. He’s two commonplace deviations above common in his early-count foul price and only one.6 above common in two-strike foul ball price, a web of -0.4 for his “foul rating.” Allen is even worse – he makes foul contact on 47.1% of early-count swings, however solely 39.3% of two-strike swings. When pitchers attempt to throw the ball previous him, they succeed. His foul rating is a woeful -2.15.
That’s among the many worst marks within the majors, however the precise worst hitter is doing loads worse than that. That might be Andujar, who’s making a ton of foul contact early (44.6%) however virtually by no means when he wants it to remain alive (27.4%). The result’s a foul rating of -4.2. Should you’re questioning why a man together with his abilities – strong bat pace, elite contact price – has by no means taken off within the majors, it could be associated to this. Likewise, for those who’re attempting to puzzle out what’s ailing Xander Bogaerts this yr, it will probably’t assist that he makes foul contact 39% of the time early however solely 30% of the time late, for a foul rating of -2.2.
Most massive leaguers aren’t outliers to this diploma. Greater than 60% of the league has a foul rating between -1 and 1, and 93% fall between -2 and a couple of. The highest 10 hitters by this metric have an combination wRC+ 20 factors larger than the underside 10, however most gamers fall into the broad, undifferentiated center. I’m not saying that this can be a talent that everybody in baseball has or ought to use, however I do suppose that it’s measuring an actual capability.
That brings us again to Springer, a paragon of adaptability. Early within the depend, he’s allergic to foul balls, fouling the ball off simply 30.6% of the time. Put him in a two-strike depend, nonetheless, and he goes into shield mode, fouling off the ball with 42% of his hacks. He’s demonstrated some model of this talent all through his profession, the truth is. His worst two years for modulating his foul ball price have been 2023 and 2024 – maybe not coincidentally, these have been the 2 worst offensive years of his profession.
One other standout within the area? Springer’s erstwhile teammate, Carlos Correawho’s roughly Springer’s equal in foul rating this yr and has been even higher over the course of his profession. Was this a part of the Astros’ famed no-strikeouts transformation? I clearly can’t say with any certainty, and so they may need been doing just a few different issues to tilt issues of their favor, however a strong method like this will’t harm.
It’s not all former Astros. Harper has discovered this talent over time. Throughout his Nationals tenure, he didn’t change his method a lot in any respect when reaching two strikes. Since becoming a member of the Phillies, nonetheless, he’s working one of many largest variations between early-count foul price and two-strike foul price in all the main leagues. And hey, would you have a look at that, he has an enormous foul rating this yr, too – his 28% early-count foul price and 37% two-strike foul price land him fourth within the majors in foul rating.
When followers and analysts speak about sensible hitters with bat management, I’d argue that they’re implicitly describing this talent. The power to take totally different swings relying on the context – prioritizing loud, truthful contact early, then choking up and defending late – thrills old-school and new-school followers alike. That capability to adapt is extra precious than all the time slapping on the ball or all the time attempting to hit it out of the park.
Should you’re like me, you’ve got one massive query: Is that this a sustainable talent, or does it flicker out and in from one yr to the subsequent, introducing noise into hitters’ manufacturing? The outliers right here clearly appear to have an edge – Harper, Springer, and Correa do it persistently. Allen and Andujar have all the time made extra foul contact with two strikes than early within the depend; they’ve by no means possessed this talent. Nonetheless, I needed to test whether or not it’s a expertise (or hinderance) held by just a few.
To take action, I took information from 2023 and 2024. I recognized the highest 10% and backside 10% of hitters in 2023, then in contrast their efficiency to 2024. The highest 10% of hitters averaged a rating of 1.7 in 2023 and 0.6 in 2024. The underside 10% of hitters averaged -2 in 2023 and -0.4 in 2024. Broaden it to the highest 25%, and also you get the same outcome: 1.2 in 2023 and 0.3 in 2024 for the highest 25%, -1.6 in 2023 and -0.4 in 2024 for the underside 25%. There was a 0.3 correlation between year-one foul rating and year-two foul rating. It’s an actual talent – not as sturdy as, say, house run price or swinging strike price, however however one thing the place hitters who’re good at it in a single yr are usually good at it within the subsequent.
So the subsequent time you see George Springer foul off an early hanging breaking ball, you’ll know: That’s a uncommon occasion. And subsequent time you see Bryce Harper flip an 0-2 depend into an all-out foul ball battle, yep, that’s years of coaching displaying by way of. These guys are good at what they do, and it’s a factor that you simply, the fan, implicitly know is an efficient factor. Isn’t baseball cool?
