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Once I first began scripting this piece, it started one thing like this: The outcomes had but to come back for Oneil Cruz. However after every week of hitting lasers all around the park, Cruz’s wRC+ is as much as 126, the very best mark of his profession exterior of his transient 2021 call-up. The 6-foot-7 outfielder’s titanic bat pace and explosiveness ignite stretches of really unimaginable efficiency. His present scorching streak and season-long numbers are a glimpse into what he can do along with his expertise, they usually stand in contract with final season, when he had a 110 wRC+ and posted underwhelming numbers within the decrease third of the strike zone for such a protracted limbed and highly effective man.
Again in January, I examined Cruz’s biggest energy: his potential to pound pitches on the high of the zone. Gamers with such lengthy levers aren’t usually as productive on the high of the zone as Cruz was final season. His .496 xwOBA ranked third in all of baseball! Should you left a pitch up there towards him, you had been susceptible to some actual ache. However being locked in in a single a part of the zone usually means making sacrifices in one other. It’s tough to be versatile sufficient to command each the higher and decrease thirds, and Cruz solely ran a measly league common xwOBA within the backside third (.319). That’s odd, although, as a result of these are the varieties of pitches you’d count on any individual along with his stature to drop their barrel underneath the ball with ease. Once I wrote my January piece, one apparent conclusion was that if Cruz may protect his upper-third excellence whereas doing extra injury in part of the zone that ought to mesh effectively along with his bodily skills, then his batted ball profile could be totally unlocked. It’s nonetheless early, however Cruz’s .367 xwOBA within the decrease third to date this season is an enormous enchancment.
The story has just a few layers to it. I wish to bucket a hitter’s potential changes into two areas: swing modifications and swing resolution modifications. A hitter would possibly try one or each when attempting to handle a gap in his swing. Let’s begin with Cruz’s swing selections. Total, Cruz is chasing (and swinging) far much less this season than he did final 12 months, going from the twenty seventh percentile to the 62nd percentile in chase fee. That has helped him practically double his stroll fee, from 8.5% to fifteen.6%. So, on the whole, he’s being extra selective. However selectivity goes in each instructions. You may swing much less on the pitches you possibly can’t injury and swing extra on the ones you possibly can. Cruz has been much less aggressive total, however let’s see if that lower is concentrated in a specific space of the strike zone:
Oneil Cruz Swing Charges By Zone
Season
Decrease Third
Center Third
Higher Third
2024
58.4
67.0
65.8
2025
54.2
53.8
65.2
Cruz continues to be swinging practically each probability he will get towards excessive pitches, with primarily no change in his swing fee there. As an alternative, the large change has come within the center third (a 14.4 share level lower), with a slight lower within the decrease third, the zone the place he swung the least final season. Ideally, you’d wish to see Cruz taking higher benefit of pitches in the midst of the zone. Based on Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which is a measure of how effectively a batter identifies and swings on the pitches he can injury, Cruz’s total Hittable Pitch Take% has dropped from the forty fourth percentile to the thirty fifth. There’s nonetheless extra room for enchancment there. As for his dip in swings within the decrease third, swinging much less usually down there may make sense for him so long as he’s attacking the pitches he can match his aircraft with extra usually than those he can’t. Let’s dive into that additional.
In my piece from January, I discussed that Cruz infrequently acquired his barrel underneath the ball on low fastballs. As his bat moved by the zone, it sometimes didn’t get to an assault angle that allowed him to profit from his bat pace and lengthy levers. In principle, his lengthy arms ought to enable him to get on aircraft towards low pitches fairly simply when he’s at full extension, however the previous mantra of a lefty dropping their barrel underneath low-and-in pitches didn’t apply. His contact high quality was good (.459 xwOBACON), however not what you’d need from a participant whose sport is constructed off risking whiffs to be able to do injury. This 12 months, Cruz’s xwOBACON within the decrease third has jumped as much as .589, so one thing has modified. His lower in swing fee makes me assume he’s concentrating on pitches higher, however has the swing itself modified in any respect to permit him to contact these pitches with higher authority?
The variations in Cruz’s swing path are refined, however that’s actually all he wanted. To take care of his energy on the high of the zone, it made sense for him to lean on smaller modifications; in spite of everything, it’s simply as essential to protect what you’re good at as it’s to handle your weaknesses. And when taking a look at Statcast’s new bat path informationwe will see that refined tweaks could be significant.
Cruz’s assault angle within the decrease third has elevated from 11 levels to 13, and his swing path tilt has elevated one diploma from 35 to 36. However when particularly taking a look at breaking balls, his assault angle has jumped from 13 levels to 16, and he has elevated his contact level by about an inch and a half (43 to 44.4) farther in entrance of his physique. Even with the change in swing path, he nonetheless isn’t that steep on the backside of the zone. By making contact farther in entrance of his physique, his bat has extra time to match the aircraft of pitches. If he can’t manipulate his torso and shoulders early sufficient, then this is a perfect method. It’s been particularly key in his manufacturing towards breaking balls. Since sweepers, sliders, and curveballs have a downward trajectory and are slower than fastballs, the shift involved level permits his bat extra time to match the aircraft of the pitch. This has been very true for his efficiency towards sweepers.
Final season, he solely swung at 11 sweepers within the decrease third; this 12 months, that quantity is already at 9. He has a 1.050 xwOBA towards them this 12 months, in comparison with a .133 final 12 months. The pattern dimension most likely isn’t giant sufficient to say this has stabilized, however boy, is it an excellent signal for him. The distinction involved level, and in consequence assault angle, is the distinction between a low line drive and a tough groundball. And while you’re as robust as Cruz, these line drives usually lead to residence runs.
For this reason assault angle is sometimes called a timing metric. It’s indicative of when a hitter is ready to get their barrel on a aircraft that may elevate the ball. The perfect hitters are capable of get their barrel on an upward trajectory early of their swing and preserve that path, however all people has their limitations, together with Cruz. He’s extra prone to match the aircraft of a breaking ball low within the zone with an out-in-front contact level than he’s a low fastball as a result of he has extra time to get on aircraft.
I’ll go away you with some examples of Cruz swinging at low breaking balls versus excessive pitches as an instance how the swings are solely subtly completely different from each other:
Being aggressive in the direction of breakers may contribute to Cruz’s already excessive strikeout fee, which is within the third percentile. However to be sincere, I’m unsure that’s ever going to vary. His offensive profile will all the time be carried by how darn arduous he hits the ball. If that comes with a ton of strikeouts, then so be it. Cruz’s present method of simply hitting absolutely the snot out of the ball in several areas of the zone seems to have some sustainability. He’s a captivating participant, actually, which is why I’ve written about him twice in only a handful of months. What number of gamers are there who’re prone to have a 30-30-30 season? That’s, homers, stolen bases, and strikeout fee, after all.
