Individuals maintain flags of Iran and Hezbollah in addition to posters of Supreme Chief Khamenei as Iranians take to the streets within the downtown Enghelab (Revolution) Sq. in Tehran, Iran on June 24, 2025, to have fun the ceasefire after a 12-day struggle with Israel.
NEGAR/Center East Pictures/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
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NEGAR/Center East Pictures/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
President Trump doubled down on his claims that the U.S. strikes in Iran final weekend “obliterated” its key nuclear amenities, lashing out at reviews of a leaked intel evaluation, which acknowledged that Iran’s nuclear program had solely been set again by “a couple of months.”
Talking to reporters whereas attending the NATO summit within the Netherlands, Trump stated he was assured the battle between Israel and Iran was over. The 2 sides agreed to a ceasefire immediately, after Trump declared one on social media Monday evening.
Trump stated on the summit that he had plans to speak with Iran subsequent week, however stated he did not assume it was vital to come back to a cope with Iran over abandoning its nuclear ambitions.
“We could signal an settlement,” he stated, however later added “I do not assume it’s a necessity,” reiterating the success of the U.S. strikes.
President Donald Trump, heart, speaks throughout a media convention on the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, Wednesday, June 25, 2025.
Matthias Schrader/AP
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Matthias Schrader/AP
However consultants on the area and Iran’s nuclear program say that whatever the quantity of injury finished to Iran’s nuclear amenities, deliberate negotiations resulting in an enduring settlement are essential. In any other case, a resumption of the struggle – which may embody the U.S. – appears inevitable.
“This ceasefire, for my part, goes to be very brief lived for each the Israelis and the People, until there’s a very severe political technique, and President Trump primarily takes that leap,” says Ellie Geranmayeh, senior coverage fellow and Iran professional on the European Council on International Relations.
Dana Stroul, who was the Pentagon’s high Center East official between 2021 and 2023, stated the necessity for negotiations as quickly as doable is “completely essential.”
“This can be a very uncommon method to method a ceasefire,” says Stroul, now analysis director at The Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage. “There’s nothing written down, nothing articulated, no timeline and no recognized mechanism for learn how to mediate accusations of dishonest.”
A “head-spinning” two weeks
Wednesday’s feedback from Trump had been the newest in what Geranmayeh referred to as a “head-spinning two-week interval” between Israel, Iran and the U.S. that has left many watchers of the area struggling to catch up.
It started with deliberate nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, which had already gone a number of rounds however had been canceled when Israel launched a shock assault on Iran in mid-June. The talks had initially been going properly, however had begun to stall within the extra technical particulars.
The U.S. then struck a number of nuclear websites inside Iran with large bunker-buster bombs final weekend, as the one nation in possession of each the weapons and the supply system to make such a strike.
Reporters take images of a displayed graphic as Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine communicate throughout a information convention on the Pentagon in Washington, Sunday, June 22, 2025, after the U.S. navy struck three websites in Iran, straight becoming a member of Israel’s effort to destroy the nation’s nuclear program.
Alex Brandon/AP
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Alex Brandon/AP
Since that strike, a number of Iranian officers have brazenly talked about persevering with the nation’s nuclear program – which Iran maintains is peaceable, however which Israel says was aimed toward constructing a nuclear bomb – notably with regard to enriching uranium, a key part for a nuclear weapon.
“President Trump has to discover a means wherein to get again to the nuclear negotiating desk as shortly as doable,” says Vali Nasr, Iran specialist and professor at Johns Hopkins College.
Nasr pressured that point is just not on the facet of the U.S. proper now.
“The Iranians could already be busy constructing a bomb, having realized that they had been simply invaded by two nuclear armed nations, and that, in the end, you understand, the one option to face such a risk is nuclear weapons,” he says.
Iran can rebuild
Specialists have lengthy warned that attacking Iran may have the alternative impact to what its adversaries need – as an alternative of deterring its nuclear ambitions, it may velocity them up.
“I have been making this level for at the very least 30 years, that every one that issues is reconstitution,” says Kenneth Pollack, vice chairman for coverage on the Center East Institute, speaking in regards to the rebuilding of Iran’s nuclear program.
Pollack says there merely is not a means it may be curtailed by navy motion alone.
“Regardless of what number of scientists the Israelis kill, they don’t seem to be going to have the ability to assassinate Iran again to nuclear ignorance. The data is simply too widespread inside the Iranian system,” he says.
He factors to the truth that there’s nonetheless a lot about Iran’s nuclear program that’s unknown, particularly after the newest hostilities, together with the place a big stockpile of extremely enriched uranium is perhaps.
Rafael Grossi, the Director Normal of the Worldwide Atomic Power Company, indicated on Monday that there is a likelihood it survived the assaults, having been moved by Iran forward of time — however stated that the nuclear watchdog at the moment has no accounting of it.
Iran has restricted its interplay with IAEA inspectors for a number of years, though they had been nonetheless allowed to observe declared nuclear websites. On Wednesday, Iran’s parliament authorized a invoice that successfully suspended cooperation with the company. That transfer would wish additional approval to be carried out.
“The Iranian regime has invested many years in its nuclear program and likewise an unparalleled quantity of sources,” says Stroul, of The Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage. “So to assume that after lower than two weeks, they’re simply going to take a knee and abandon their total nuclear ambitions is probably going a brief sighted method.”
Talks will not be straightforward
Trump has signaled that U.S. and Iranian officers shall be assembly subsequent week.
Shira Efron, director of analysis at Israel Coverage Discussion board, a New York-based analysis group, says that is excellent news, if true.
“An settlement would ship one thing much more sustainable than the ceasefire that we’ve,” she says. “The query is, what is going on to come back out of those talks? They can not be talks only for the sake of talks.”
These talks, in the event that they occur, are virtually actually going to be difficult, given the extraordinarily technical nature of the nuclear concern, and the hardened positions on each side.
“That is the actual take a look at for the artwork of the deal, proper?” says Nasr, of Johns Hopkins. “Do you even have the diplomats with the authority to barter, to do the heavy lifting? Do you’ve gotten the correct workforce to do this? It is not solely intention, it is the capability to ship.”
Geranmayeh, who consulted through the diplomatic observe that led to the 2015 nuclear deal below Obama, says in some ways in which deal helped lay a pathway for talks at this time. However with out worldwide inspectors accessing Iranian amenities, she says it might be exhausting to know what precisely to barter about now.
“Regardless that we mainly know what the options are and how one can put the Rubik’s Dice again collectively, the technical facet has change into harder,” Geranmayeh says.
Like placing a Rubik’s Dice again collectively blindfolded, she says.
