Thomas Shea-Imagn Photographs
When the Astros awoke on Might 7, they have been 17-18 and had simply slipped into fourth place within the AL West. That they had just lately positioned Yordan Alvarez — who had struggled mightily to that time — on the injured listing with what had been recognized as a muscle pressure in his proper hand. First baseman Christian Walker, their massive free agent addition, was scuffling alongside under alternative stage, and each new left fielder Jose Altuve and the group that changed him at second base have been enjoying each bit as badly. In the meantime, their already-thin rotation had been additional compromised by the lack of Spencer Arrighetti. However even whereas receiving extra unhealthy information on Alvarez, and dropping two extra starters — Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski — to Tommy John surgical procedure, the Astros have turned issues round, profitable 15 of 24 and briefly sneaking into first place within the AL West.
At this writing, the Astros at the moment are 32-27, and have trimmed the Mariners’ division lead from 4 video games to half a recreation:
Change in Astros’ Playoff Odds
Date
W
L
W%
GB
Win Div
Clinch Bye
Clinch WC
Playoffs
Win WS
Via Might 6
17
18
.486
4
17.4%
9.9%
28.3%
45.6%
2.6%
Via June 2
32
27
.542
0.5
42.2%
14.5%
25.3%
67.5%
4.2%
Change
+24.8%
+4.6%
-3.0%
+21.9%
+1.6%
By comparability, the Mariners began 21-14, however have gone 11-12 since. Since Might 6, the Astros have gained 4 sequence (in opposition to the Reds, Royals, Mariners, and A’s), misplaced one (Rays), and cut up two (Rangers and Rays). They took three out of 4 from the Mariners at house from Might 22-25, capped by Walker’s walk-off two-run homer off Casey Legumina on Might 25. That was certainly one of three walk-off victories throughout that span; Isaac Paredes‘ solo homer off the Royals’ John Schreiber on Might 13 and Yainer Diaz’s solo homer off the Rays’ Garrett Cleavinger on Might 30 have been the others. The latter shot lifted the Astros’ document to 31-26, permitting them to sneak previous the Mariners and into first place, however since then, Seattle beat Minnesota in every of its subsequent two video games whereas Houston cut up a pair with Tampa Bay, restoring the Mariners to first place by the barest of margins:
The offense has been the largest driver of Houston’s surge, bettering from 3.88 runs per recreation with a 94 wRC+ over the Astros’ first 35 video games to 4.29 runs per recreation with a 119 wRC+ within the final 24. Each common besides Walker has hit for a 100 wRC+ or higher over the latter span, as have part-timers Mauricio Dubón (who’s sharing second base with the a lot much less productive Brendan Rodgers) and Zach Dezenzo (who shared time with Altuve in left and dabbled at DH within the absence of Alvarez earlier than touchdown on the injured listing with left hand irritation). Just one Astro with a minimum of 60 complete plate appearances has been much less productive since Might 6 than he was earlier than, particularly middle fielder Jake Meyers — and he’s nonetheless been comfortably above-average:
Astros Offensive Turnaround
Via Might 6
Since Might 7
Participant
PA
HR
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
PA
HR
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
Jeremy Peña
146
4
.275
.338
.405
113
104
5
.359
.423
.587
190
Isaac Paredes
147
4
.254
.361
.389
121
105
7
.250
.333
.522
142
Victor Caratini
54
1
.217
.333
.348
102
70
2
.328
.371
.453
138
Mauricio Dubón
54
0
.220
.264
.260
50
49
1
.319
.347
.468
133
Cam Smith
96
3
.212
.302
.365
93
77
0
.309
.390
.397
132
Jose Altuve
149
4
.254
.302
.370
90
93
5
.279
.323
.477
124
Jake Meyers
107
2
.299
.349
.433
124
90
1
.284
.348
.370
110
Zach Dezenzo
53
1
.260
.302
.380
95
56
1
.229
.339
.354
105
Yainer Diaz
116
3
.223
.250
.357
70
89
4
.241
.292
.410
100
Christian Walker
140
4
.203
.271
.344
76
95
3
.224
.284
.376
87
Chas McCormick
32
0
.280
.379
.320
110
21
0
.222
.300
.278
71
Brendan Rodgers
77
1
.235
.312
.324
85
34
0
.094
.147
.125
-26
Yordan Alvarez
121
3
.210
.306
.340
78
Totals
1292
30
.241
.311
.365
94
890
29
.271
.334
.428
119
It’s taken a very long time for the Astros to realize readability concerning Alvarez, who final performed on Might 2 after sitting out for a few days on account of what was initially described as irritation in his proper hand; the slugger mentioned he’d damage the hand swinging the bat in late April however performed by means of ache as a result of he’d handled comparable accidents up to now. He went on the injured listing on Might 5, was recognized with a muscle pressure following an MRI the following day, resumed taking batting follow on Might 12, and continued to ramp up his baseball actions. After he homered throughout batting follow final Friday, he appeared near returning to the lineup, however upon admitting he was nonetheless feeling discomfort, the Astros despatched him for one more MRI — and found that he’d fractured his fourth metacarpal. What was described as “a really small fracture” had beforehand been obscured by the irritation and was solely 60% healed; the harm could have been exacerbated as Alvarez elevated the depth of his rehab.
“It doesn’t shock me that it was fractured,” Alvarez mentioned on Friday. “I knew there was one thing on there on my first MRI. I had the muscle pressure. That was what I used to be coping with, and time handed and it was presupposed to get higher, but it surely wasn’t.”
Alvarez can be shut down from hitting till the fracture heals, and can in all probability want time to get his swing so as, so he may very well be out till mid-to-late June. In his absence, supervisor Joe Espada has primarily used Altuve, Dezenso, and whichever catcher wasn’t behind the plate that day (Caratini or Diaz) to DH, and whereas solely Altuve has actually thrived in that capability, the crew’s 108 wRC+ from that spot since dropping Alvarez has been a major enchancment.
Altuve’s transfer to left discipline has not gone properly on both finish, in that he’s been awful defensively (-7 DRS, -3 FRV) in 268 innings on the new place, whereas additionally beginning slowly on the plate. He’s dabbled at second base as properly, beginning 12 video games there, however the place has become a sinkhole: He, Dubón, and Rogers have mixed for a 64 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR as second basemen. That mentioned, Atuve’s bat has just lately perked up; over his final 10 video games, he’s homered 5 occasions whereas accumulating 15 hits, lifting his general wRC+ from 79 to 103.
Paredes and Peña have finished probably the most to energy this surge. Whereas Paredes’ general manufacturing (.252/.349/.445, 129 wRC+) hasn’t fairly matched what the now-injured Alex Bregman has finished in Boston so far (.299/.385/.553, 160 wRC+), his wRC+ is larger than Bregman’s marks in his closing two years as an Astro (126 in 2023, 118 final yr), and he initiatives to approximate Bregman’s WAR in these years (4.5 and 4.2, respectively).
The 27-year-old Peña hit for a 100 wRC+ whereas averaging 16 homers, 15 steals, and three.0 WAR in his first three seasons after changing Carlos Correa, however proper now he’s hitting .309/.373/.480 (145 wRC+) with 9 homers and 10 steals. His wRC+ ranks second amongst all shortstops behind Jacob Wilson, whereas his 2.9 WAR is tops. After exhibiting as much as camp in 2024 with a brand new swing, he has continued to tinker. Along with simplifying his higher physique motion, in keeping with Statcast’s metrics, he has opened his stance from three levels to 18, elevated the space between his toes by about six inches, and has decreased the lean of his swing — sufficient modifications to fill an article down the highway. A few of these modifications aren’t laborious to identify:
These setups come from house runs final September 7 in opposition to the Diamondbacks and this previous Might 13 in opposition to the Royals:
Whereas Peña’s common exit velocity of 88.3 mph is simply 0.3 mph above his profession norm, his 6.8% barrel charge and 41.7% hard-hit charge are his finest marks since his rookie season, and his 20.3% pulled air charge and .433 xSLG are each profession highs.
On the pitching facet, the Astros haven’t been fairly as stingy throughout this run (4.0 runs per recreation) as they have been by means of Might 6 (3.65 runs per recreation), however that has extra to do with a couple of bullpen blowups than a rotation that has been strong on both facet of the cut up regardless of weathering so many accidents:
Astros Pitching
Via Might 6
Since Might 7
Cut up
IP
Ok%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
IP
Ok%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
Starters
186.2
24.3%
7.9%
1.11
3.81
3.76
131.1
27.1%
8.2%
1.23
3.63
3.73
Relievers
112.0
27.3%
8.8%
0.68
2.85
2.99
72.0
26.5%
10.5%
1.00
4.54
3.78
Totals
306.2
25.5%
8.3%
0.94
3.43
3.46
212.2
26.9%
9.1%
1.14
3.98
3.75
Already down J.P. France, Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier on account of surgical procedures (capsule restore for France, Tommy John for the opposite two), and Arrighetti on account of a damaged thumb when he was hit by an errant ball throughout batting follow, the Astros positioned Wesneski on the IL with elbow discomfort on Might 9. The 27-year-old righty, who was acquired from the Cubs within the Kyle Tucker commerce together with Paredes and Cam Smith, broke camp because the fifth starter and made six begins with a 4.50 ERA and 4.77 FIP. An preliminary MRI on Might 10 revealed solely irritation, however a follow-up examination by Dr. Keith Meister yielded the prognosis of a torn UCL; he underwent surgical procedure on Might 23.
The 31-year-old Blanco, whose 2024 breakout included an April 1 no-hitter, seemed to be rounding into kind after a rocky begin to his season; he struck out a season-high 11 Reds in eight shutout innings on Might 11, his penultimate begin. Alas, he reported elbow soreness after a six-inning, three-run begin on Might 17 in opposition to the Rangers, went on the IL on Might 22, and found he wanted Tommy John surgical procedure on Might 28.
The 2 constants in Houston’s rotation have been Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. The 26-year-old Brown has been stellar, permitting zero or one runs in eight of his 12 begins; his 1.83 ERA, 2.67 FIP, and a pair of.2 WAR all rank fourth within the AL. The 31-year-old Valdez has a 3.12 ERA and three.24 FIP; he allowed 12 of his 27 runs in a pair of early April begins however has in any other case been excellent as properly. He wanted simply 83 pitches to throw a complete-game three-hitter in opposition to the Rays on Might 30, the bottom complete for a nine-inning recreation in six years.
The rotation is now rounded out by Lance McCullers Jr. and rookies Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto. The 31-year-old McCullers joined the rotation on Might 4, after a sequence of forearm accidents — culminating in surgical procedure to restore a torn flexor tendon final June — stored him out of the majors for the reason that 2022 postseason. His 5.89 ERA and 4.66 FIP aren’t fairly, however these numbers are distorted by a seven-run, one-out begin in opposition to the Reds on Might 10 (the one which elicited a loss of life risk in opposition to his household from an intoxicated gambler who lives abroad). He’s allowed 5 earned runs in his different 4 begins totaling 18 innings, and at last made it by means of the fifth inning on Might 28 in opposition to the A’s, throwing 102 pitches whereas putting out 12 in six innings. Gordon, a soft-tossing 26-year-old lefty, has been tagged for a 5.95 ERA and 4.30 FIP in 4 begins. He’s a 35+ FV prospect who will get nice extension and throws a ton of strikes however is liable to serving up homers. Gusto, a 26-year-old righty, has been efficient as a reliever so far (0.93 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 9.2 innings) however not as a starter (5.83 ERA and 4.54 FIP in 29.1 innings), although to be honest, he’s been shuttled forwards and backwards; he’s walked 10.7% of hitters and has given up loads of laborious contact.
Assistance is on the best way… finally. Arrighetti resumed throwing final week, however he’s taking a look at a July return. Javier, who underwent Tommy John surgical procedure final June 6, started throwing bullpen classes on Might 9 however has been introduced alongside slowly and sure gained’t return till after the All-Star break. If anybody breaks down earlier than these two return, AJ Blubaugh, a 25-year-old righty who was shellacked for seven runs (however simply two earned) in an April 30 spot begin in opposition to the Tigers, might be the following man up; he’s a 40+ FV prospect with a starter’s repertoire however below-average command, as evidenced by his 13.7% stroll charge and 6.59 ERA at Triple-A Sugarland. Past that, normal supervisor Dana Brown could must scare up a starter from outdoors the group.
As for the bullpen, general it has the AL’s second-highest strikeout charge (27.5%), second-lowest FIP (3.31) and seventh-lowest ERA (3.53). Nearer Josh Hader, setup man Bryan Abreu, and middlemen Shawn Dubin and Steven Okert have all pitched properly usually, in that every has an ERA of two.05 or decrease and a FIP of two.77 or decrease. Nonetheless, Abreu’s three blown save alternatives — and his three unfavorable WPA outings — have all come in opposition to the Mariners, in losses on April 7, April 9, and Might 23; in his different 23 outings, he’s thrown 23.1 scoreless innings and has stranded all six inherited runners. Setup counterpart Bryan King carried a 1.52 ERA and a pair of.32 FIP into final week, however upon coming into a tied recreation in opposition to the Rays on Might 29 was torched for 5 hits and 5 runs in one-third of an inning, capped by a three-run Junior Caminero homer. Except for these high-profile hiccups, it’s been lower-leverage relievers equivalent to Kaleb Ort, the since-released Tayler Scott and people shuttling to and from Sugar Land who’ve inflated the unit’s ERA.
Whereas the Astros have had sluggish begins lately — March/April data of 14-12 (2021), 11-10 (2022), 15-13 (2023), 10-19 (2024), and 16-14 (2025) — they’ve typically sorted themselves out in Might whereas their closest rivals have come again to earth. For the reason that pandemic, the one time they’ve had a dropping document on the 59-game mark was final yr, once they overcame a 26-33 begin to go 88-73 and win the AL West for the fourth straight yr. That is their second-worst begin in that span, but they’re simply an eyelash from first place, with almost even odds of profitable the division regardless of their woes and a slim margin for error. In the event you have been ready for Houston’s future of contenders to finish, this won’t be your yr.
