Kirby Lee-Imagn Photographs
Sandy Alcantara was speculated to be the final bastion of the standard beginning pitcher, the man who pumps gasoline seven innings a begin come hell or excessive water. The stoic, hirsute antidote to the effete, three-ply gentle five-and-dive starter of at the moment. In his 2022 Cy Younger marketing campaign, Alcantara threw extra innings than another Nationwide League pitcher since 2015, and he did it whereas throwing tougher than another starter within the league that 12 months. Oh yeah, man, that’s the stuff.
A mildly disappointing 2023 resulted in a torn UCL, which prevented Alcantara from taking part in a uncommon Marlins postseason look. However he’s again now, able to remind the world what 220 innings a 12 months appears to be like like.
Via six begins, the Miami ace has an ERA of 8.31. His strikeout price is down to fifteen.8%, which is about two-thirds of what it was at his peak, and his stroll price is 14.2%, which is so unhealthy you don’t want context to understand it.
Hachi machi.
This early within the season, even an ERA as excessive as 8.31 isn’t essentially an emergency. All season lengthy, Alcantara has allowed 24 runs. A pair unhealthy calls, a pair bloop hits, perhaps one 40-pitch first inning, some unhealthy sequencing luck — the fluky stuff can add up fairly rapidly, and in solely six begins there isn’t a lot time for it to even out.
However Alcantara has been fairly persistently poor this season. He’s allowed a number of earned runs in each begin, walked 4 or extra batters 3 times, and he’s pitched into the sixth inning simply twice. His final day out, on Tuesday evening in opposition to the Dodgers in Los Angeles, Alcantara allowed three runs within the first inning, one within the second, and three extra within the third inning, which he didn’t end. If a sequence of one-run innings is a picket fence, I posted on Bluesky to crickets from the viewersthe Dodgers put up an artwork nouveau balustrade in opposition to the 2022 Cy Younger winner. The sport acquired so out of hand so rapidly, each groups had a place participant pitch.
Regardless of his best-in-baseball four-seamer velocity, Alcantara by no means put up bonkers strikeout numbers, even when he was successful awards and so forth. Two issues fear me right here: Alcantara’s command and the standard of contact he’s giving up. I already talked about the 14.2% stroll price; Alcantara can also be working a .426 opponent xwOBACON (it was .315 in his Cy Younger 12 months) and a 6.39 xERA.
Usually, it’d be encouraging to see {that a} struggling pitcher was underperforming an ERA estimator by two runs. Certainly that is unhealthy luck, and all can be forgiven quickly. Not a lot right here. The headline determine is that, even in a small pattern, Alcantara is permitting an xERA of 6.39. That’s actually, actually unhealthy!
Even coming off Tommy John surgical procedure, Alcantara’s velocity continues to be there. He’s throwing his four-seamer perhaps half a mile an hour slower than he did in 2022 and 2023, however he’s getting barely extra spin and motion. I’ll name it a wash; both method, for those who can’t dwell at 97 with 15 inches of arm-side run, you must get out of present enterprise.
At his peak, Alcantara threw 4 pitches — a four-seamer, a sinker, a slider, and a changeup — in roughly equal proportions. In 2025 (nicely, extra like September 2023, however that was simply earlier than he acquired harm), he’s added a curveball.
Sandy Alcantara’s Repertoire Via the Years
Fastball
Yr
Pitch %
Spin (rpm)
Pitch %
H-Mov (in.)
IVB (in.)
xwOBA
Whiff%
2022
25.5
2,200
25.5
12.1 ARM
13.8
.318
24.2
2023
21.6
2,255
21.6
11.9 ARM
13.5
.299
26.8
2025
19.8
2,296
19.8
15.0 ARM
13.4
.419
11.1
Sinker
Yr
Pitch %
Spin (rpm)
Pitch %
H-Mov (in.)
IVB (in.)
xwOBA
Whiff%
2022
24.6
2,293
24.6
17.7 ARM
7.4
.295
11.1
2023
28.7
2,330
28.7
17.6 ARM
7.3
.359
12.2
2025
25.5
2,325
25.5
18.8 ARM
7.9
.443
10.5
Changeup
Yr
Pitch %
Spin (rpm)
Pitch %
H-Mov (in.)
IVB (in.)
xwOBA
Whiff%
2022
27.5
2,056
27.5
16.8 ARM
3.8
.198
34.6
2023
27.3
1,968
27.3
16.3 ARM
3.7
.304
30.3
2025
27.1
2,045
27.1
18.3 ARM
4.7
.300
37.9
Slider
Yr
Pitch %
Spin (rpm)
Pitch %
H-Mov (in.)
IVB (in.)
xwOBA
Whiff%
2022
22.0
2,355
22.0
0.3 GLV
3.4
.272
31.4
2023
20.0
2,366
20.0
0.5 GLV
4.1
.301
35.2
2025
16.7
2,428
16.7
0.2 ARM
3.9
.557
39.3
Curveball
Yr
Pitch %
Spin (rpm)
Pitch %
H-Mov (in.)
IVB (in.)
xwOBA
Whiff%
2022
0.3
2,350
0.3
2.7 GLV
-2.6
.041
33.3
2023
2.4
2,458
2.4
3.3 GLV
-2.8
.272
18.2
2025
10.8
2,400
10.8
2.5 GLV
-0.6
.195
40.9
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
I’m sort of lukewarm on the concept of Alcantara throwing a second breaking pitch, particularly this mid-80s curve that’s acquired nicely below-average motion in each axes and presents little variation from his slider the least bit. Then there’s the hazard of the 2 breakers mixing into one another. For the file, I don’t suppose that’s what’s taking place. Although Alcantara’s slider is spinning quicker than ever and is definitely breaking barely arm-side this 12 months, it at all times had fairly strict up-and-down motion.
In case you’d instructed me that Alcantara’s curveball was a catastrophe, and roughly solely liable for doubling his ERA, I’d’ve believed you based mostly on the spin and motion numbers alone.
Besides: The curveball is the one pitch that isn’t getting hit onerous. And it’s one in every of two pitches of his — the changeup being the opposite — that isn’t getting completely crushed.
I’m open to the likelihood that there’s something in Alcantara’s pitch combine that’s inflicting a damaging interplay, or that minute variations in spin price or motion are making him extra hittable. However to not this extent.
The identical goes for his mechanics. Alcantara has been fairly constant together with his windup and place on the mound; he begins together with his proper heel method over on the left facet of the rubber, similar to he did in 2022 and 2023. His arm slot is a pair levels decrease this 12 months than it was in 2022 and 2023, which most likely explains the completely different form on his fastballs, nevertheless it’s solely by a pair levels. The distinction is nearly imperceptible on movie.
Alcantara has been so unhealthy this 12 months I nearly don’t need to attribute his misfortunes to a single trigger, however the starkest proof I can discover of a breakdown is available in a crucial spot: His command has backed up, and badly.
After working Zone% numbers within the 53% vary for nearly all of his profession, Alcantara is throwing 51.8% of pitches within the zone this 12 months. That’s not particularly troubling in and of itself, however PitchingBot downgraded Alcantara’s command from a 62 within the two seasons pre-Tommy John to a 48 thus far this 12 months. In case you take a look at Location+, he’s gone from a 105 in 2023 to an 89 in 2025.
In his Cy Younger 12 months and thereabouts, Alcantara had elite velocity and threw unimaginable arm-side stuff (changeup and sinker) in an amazing quantity of innings. However he was by no means on the high of the desk by way of both lacking bats or producing weak contact. He was simply common or higher at principally all the things, and over 220 innings a 12 months, these small successes add up.
The one factor Alcantara may do higher than nearly anybody within the league was get hitters to chase. They chased greater than a 3rd of Alcantara’s pitches exterior the strike zone in 2021, 2022, and 2023. In all three of these seasons, Alcantara’s chase price was within the 94th percentile or higher.
This 12 months, Alcantara’s opponents have swung at a fair 25% of pitches exterior the strike zone, which is within the twenty third percentile. And when he’s throwing pitches within the strike zone, he’s gravitating extra towards the center of the plate. Alcantara’s meatball price — pitches thrown middle-middle — is up from 7.2% in 2023 to eight.8% in 2025. His proportion of pitches within the Coronary heart assault zone is up from 27.2% to 29.8%. And when hitters swing at pitches in that zone, their xwOBA is .475, up from .327 in 2022.
Generally, after an extended layoff, command is the very last thing to come back again. A pitcher who’s used to throwing as a lot as Alcantara is perhaps particularly liable to growing rust. Perhaps Alcantara is just a bit off, like a soccer participant who’s simply come again from a torn ACL, and must play his method again into sharpness.
If that’s the case, it is a non-story. The Marlins aren’t going anyplace this 12 months, with or with out Alcantara. And he’s signed by means of subsequent season. If Alcantara can return to pre-injury type by the tip of this season, everybody may have lengthy forgotten about his ugly April by the point he hits the commerce market, the free company market, or each.
And it had higher be rust. As a result of if Alcantara’s doing all the identical stuff he was doing in 2022, and is getting crushed anyway, that’s a fair larger downside.
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