Brett Davis-Imagn Photos
It’s wanting like this isn’t the 12 months for Francisco Alvarez in any case. On Sunday, the day after they ended a seven-game shedding streak, the Mets introduced that they’d optioned Alvarez to Triple-A Syracuse and referred to as up Hayden Senger to take his place. The 23-year-old catcher already has a three-win season beneath his belt, and if not for a thumb harm that restricted him to 100 video games final season, he’d probably be a top-10 catcher by way of WAR over the previous two seasons. This season hasn’t gone to plan both, although, and Alvarez will now attempt to set issues straight with a Syracuse Mets workforce that has dropped 12 of its final 14 video games.
Alvarez fractured the hamate bone in his left hand on March 8, making this the second season in a row through which an harm to his catching hand has interfered along with his likelihood to take the subsequent step as an All-Star-level dual-threat backstop. Alvarez began a minor league rehab stint a really quick 32 days later, batting .179 over 10 video games at three ranges. He returned to the Mets on April 25, and it’s laborious to flee the conclusion that the workforce introduced him again to quickly. After lacking a bit of spring coaching and struggling throughout his rehab task, it maybe shouldn’t be a shock that he didn’t get off to a roaring begin, however now {that a} skid has dropped them to 1 sport behind the Phillies for the NL East lead, the Mets are now not content material to let him determine it out in Queens.
Let’s speak concerning the offense first. Whereas it hasn’t been very best, it hasn’t been disastrous both. Alvarez has gotten 138 plate appearances over 35 video games, working a 91 wRC+. He put up a 97 wRC+ in 2023 and a 102 in 2024, so whereas that is the bottom mark of his profession and a disappointment for a participant who was anticipated to place all of it collectively on the plate, it’s under no circumstances unprecedented. Alvarez had considerably worse 35-game stretches in every of his final two seasons:
Alvarez has been extra aggressive of late, chasing and whiffing at career-high charges, and his 73% zone contact fee is among the many worst within the league. Nonetheless, as a result of he’s elevated his zone swing fee far more than his chase fee, SEAGER places him within the 98th percentile, by far the most effective mark of his profession. And since he’s seeing fewer strikes than he did in both of the previous two seasons, Alvarez is working a career-high stroll fee to go along with his career-high strikeout fee. You can assemble an actual argument that the elevated stroll fee is price the additional strikeouts, however the Mets clearly don’t see it that method. Supervisor Carlos Mendoza particularly cited plate self-discipline as Alvarez’s drawback, telling reporters“There have been stretches the place we felt, I felt like a few video games the place, OK, that’s what it’s imagined to appear to be. However then he’ll go a few video games the place he’s late with the fastball after which he chases, so simply searching for consistency right here.”
The opposite a part of that argument has to do with the truth that Alvarez is crushing the baseball, although you wouldn’t comprehend it from his career-low .098 ISO. We’re speaking a few small pattern, however he’s working profession highs in hard-hit fee, in addition to common, max, and Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity. All that contact high quality hasn’t was energy largely as a result of Alvarez hits the ball on the bottom an terrible lot; simply 9% of his hard-hit balls have been within the air to the pull aspect, down from 29% in 2023 and 19% in 2024. The batted ball metrics are additionally shaping up in a bizarre method. Alvarez is working the best BABIP of his profession, however check out this:
Francisco Alvarez’s Onerous-Hit Splits
Season
2023-2024
2025
Onerous-Hit xwOBA
.612
.584
Onerous-Hit wOBA
.660
.492
Distinction
+.048
-.092
Not Onerous-Hit xwOBA
.160
.220
Not Onerous-Hit wOBA
.156
.260
Distinction
-.004
+.042
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Alvarez has gone from outperforming his wOBA when he hits the ball laborious to underperforming it by fairly a bit. However he’s additionally outperforming it when he doesn’t hit the ball laborious. That’s to not say that each one of that is the results of luck. Alvarez is working a career-low pull fee, and that drop-off is much more dramatic on balls within the air.
It’s not essentially that Alvarez is struggling to meet up with pitches; he additionally went into the offseason decided to cease pulling the ball a lot. “The first focus for me has been to hit the ball the opposite method or up the center, however there are going to be days the place I’m going to be pulling the baseball,” he stated in April. “However in all probability 80 % of the time my focus is extra to the center of the sector to the alternative subject.” It has labored, perhaps too nicely. In response to Statcast’s bat monitoring metrics, his intercept level is 1.3 inches deeper than it was final season. In the meanwhile of intercept, his bat went from being angled three levels to the pull aspect to 5 levels to the alternative subject. In all, anticipated metrics like xwOBA suppose that Alvarez needs to be just about pretty much as good a hitter as he was final season, with the walks making up for the additional strikeouts and the contact high quality making up for the less-than-ideal launch angles. Nonetheless, DRC+, which will get deeper into the method, is way more skeptical:
Francisco Alvarez’s Anticipated/Deserved Stats
Season
xwOBA
xwOBAcon
DRC+
2023
.305
.370
97
2024
.289
.343
97
2025
.303
.369
85
Alvarez is an all-or-nothing energy hitter, who can also be groundball inclined as a result of he possess a flat swing; over the previous three seasons, his 28 diploma swing path tilt put him in simply the fifteenth percentile. We’ve seen loads of hitters make that work to various levels, however it’s not all the time the world’s most satisfying mixture. He’s going to undergo intervals the place he doesn’t make a lot contact, and he’s going to undergo intervals when he’s hitting the ball on the bottom method, method an excessive amount of. He’s been doing each this season, however it’s necessary to understand that we’re speaking a few small pattern, simply as we’re speaking a few participant coming off an harm and lacking spring coaching.
Along with altering his strategy, Alvarez has additionally modified his setup, going from a comparatively stationary stance along with his bat resting on his shoulder to a extra fluid stance along with his bat angled increased and his fingers decrease:
As Mendoza famous on Sunday, the hamate harm value Alvarez the prospect to get comfy with these modifications.
All that stated, the larger concern comes on the defensive finish. “I really feel just like the receiving and the blocking might be an space that we need to see some enchancment,” stated Mendoza. Over the previous two seasons, Alvarez was among the best framers within the sport, with 9 framing runs in 2023 and 7 in 2024 based on Statcast. This season, he’s at -4. Baseball Savant breaks the perimeters of the strike zone into eight totally different sections. Alvarez grades out as beneath common in seven of them, and among the many backside 10 within the league in 4 of them. In earlier seasons, he was wonderful on the backside of the plate, however this season, he ranks thirty eighth out of 56 certified catchers. That could be a main subject that must be addressed. Even in his excellent rookie season in 2023, Alvarez was a below-average hitter, with practically all of his worth coming from framing. Possibly he simply wants extra time to recuperate from an harm to the bottom of his catching hand, however that talent is what gave him his actual star potential. With out it, he’s a distinct participant.
Alvarez’s blocking has additionally been the topic of a lot criticism, as his 4 handed balls are tied for fifth-most in baseball. Nonetheless, Baseball Prospectus sees him as an above-average blocker this season, and Statcast sees him as precisely common. The Statcast numbers present that that is probably a state of affairs the place the attention check isn’t treating him nicely. Alvarez has let 17 pitches get by him in 2025, however they’re not those you would possibly count on:
Alvarez’s alternatives have been fairly a bit more durable this season. He’s really been higher than common on pitches that Statcast grades as having medium issue, however he’s given these good points again on possibilities that grade out as straightforward. However reasonably troublesome blocks don’t stick out that a lot, so what we discover are all of the handed balls on straightforward possibilities. Furthermore, Alvarez is at present catching 41% of would-be basestealers, so he’s making up some worth along with his arm.
Now that we all know all this, what does it say concerning the workforce’s determination to choice Alvarez? It relies upon. If his points merely stem from the harm and the dearth of preparation time – if he’s going to determine it out ultimately – then sending him down proper now doesn’t make a ton of sense. He has already been ceding enjoying time to Luis Torrens. Torrens has been wonderful at framing, which has allowed him to place up 0.7 WAR to Alvarez’s 0.5, regardless that his bat has been worse and his blocking really has been dangerous. Senger is 28 and was working only a 59 wRC+ in Syracuse. In truth, he hasn’t put up an above-average offensive line within the minors since 2021. So swapping in Senger for even this lowered model of Alvarez will probably value the Mets considerably within the short-term, and there’s all the time a threat that this type of demotion might harm a participant’s confidence.
Then again, if the Mets actually suppose that Alvarez might use a reset to work on his framing and work out his strategy, then it makes all of the sense on this planet to ship him down proper now. Mendoza is keen to get Alvarez extra at-bats, however the Mets don’t suppose they will afford to whereas they’re battling for the division and Torrens is (barely) outperforming him. It’s laborious to say whether or not Alvarez’s struggles on the plate are the results of his new strategy, residue from the harm, or just dangerous luck over a brief pattern, however the Mets are clearly fearful about his plate self-discipline. In the event that they’re going to tinker along with his swing, it’s in all probability higher to do this in a lower-pressure surroundings. If it leads to Alvarez having an ideal second half, it could be nicely definitely worth the short-term downgrade.
To be clear, if Alvarez does bounce again sooner or later, there will likely be no strategy to actually know the explanation for it. Did the Mets assist him determine one thing out? Did he simply want a while to get again to his previous self? Loads of individuals can have an opinion, however we received’t know what would have occurred if the workforce had simply held to their present course. It appears protected to imagine that Alvarez will get again to one thing like his previous self sooner or later, and if that occurs quickly, it should make the Mets look very good.
