Jordan Johnson-Imagn Photos
For Twins followers, the Louis Varland deal was one thing like the ultimate straw. Parting with Willi Castro could possibly be forgiven — his contract was up on the finish of this season. Jhoan duran and Griffin Jax — okay, they had been below group management via 2027, however you would persuade your self that the deadline is one of the best time to half with a premium reliever, and take a look at the return. Dumping Carlos Correa and the vast majority of his contract on the Astros was positively a feel-bad transfer, nevertheless it was additionally one which was requested by Correa himself after the Twins made clear that they had been headed right into a rebuilding part, and the again half of that deal may look fairly dangerous from a manufacturing standpoint.
However giving up on Varland defied any affordable rationalization. He grew up in Minnesota, performed his school ball there, and was introduced into the Twins group as a fifteenth rounder within the 2019 draft. From these humble hometown beginnings, he developed right into a fire-breathing bullpen monster. Varland sits 98 mph on his four-seam fastball; he’s below group management till 2030, and wouldn’t even hit arbitration till 2027. If there was ever an ideal nearer to bridge from one aggressive Twins period to the following, it could’ve been Varland.
As a substitute, the entrance workplace despatched him (together with Ty France) off to Toronto in change for outfielder Roden within the subject and left-handed pitcher Kendry Rojas. On the deserves, it’s an affordable return; Roden can actually rake, and Garcia is a reputable pitching prospect near the large leagues.
However Varland’s affordability, years of group management, and homegrown pedigree made all of it appear so private, as if possession might care much less about stripping the group right down to the studs. As I write this, the prime submit on the Twins subreddit is a photograph of Varland with the caption “This one straight up seems like a center finger to the fanbase.” There are a whole lot of feedback commiserating.
It wasn’t so way back that the Twins had been the category of the AL Central. In truth, it was as not too long ago as the start of this season. Even after a disappointing 2024, the place possession lower payroll by 20% and the Twins gained simply 82 video games, they had been nonetheless projected because the favorites within the division on Opening Day 2025. Between Correa, Byron Buxtonand Royce Lewisthe offensive core gave the impression to be in place, locked up on offers via the vast majority of the 2020s. The bullpen was projected to be one of the best within the league. Joe Ryan, Pablo Lópezand Bailey Ober appeared to be about as strong of a playoff rotation as any group might ask for.
A bunch of stuff went sideways, after all. Ober bought shelled. López bought harm. Correa and Lewis stopped hitting. However below-average performances from just a few key performers doesn’t necessitate buying and selling away 10 gamers from a 26-man roster, together with a number of gamers below group management nicely past this doomed season. All of this occurred for different causes. It’s onerous not to have a look at the Pohlad household’s efforts to promote the groupor the $425 million in debt accrued whereas the group was below their stewardship.
Regardless of the specifics, there isn’t a good baseball cause to dispatch Duran, or Jax, and particularly not Varland, who was within the midst of a breakout season. Over 49 innings, the 27-year-old posted a 2.02 ERA and a 2.89 FIP, with verifiably nasty stuff. As talked about earlier, he sits 98 on his heater, nevertheless it’s comparatively dead-zone, so it doesn’t get a ton of swing-and-miss. His greatest pitch is his curveball, key to his breakout this season.
Final yr, Varland’s breaking balls had been a multitude, rating within the first percentile in breaking ball run worth. His main was a tough slider/cutter variant, much like the form of Jacob Misiorowski’s “slider” however at 90 mph. Beneath that pitch, he threw an 85 mph curveball with seven inches of drop.
This yr, he’s largely moved away from the slider/cutter (I’m actually making an attempt onerous to not write slutter), choosing the curve as his main breaking ball. And whereas it’s dropping an inch lower than in 2024, it’s gained a full three and a half (!) ticks of velo and is now sitting at 88 mph. He’s transferred among the slider intent into the curveball, and it’s benefitted the pitch enormously. Varland throws it with roughly equal frequency to each righties and lefties, and the outcomes have been glowing: a 39.7% whiff fee and a .225 wOBA on contact.
Proper now, RosterResource sees Varland because the fourth man within the Jays bullpen, behind Jeff Hoffman, Yariel Rodríguezand the not too long ago acquired Seranthony Domínguez. I’d not be stunned in any respect if Varland grabs maintain of the first setup function in Toronto by yr’s finish, no less than till Yimi García works his means again from damage.
(I’m not precisely positive how France matches on the roster, however I’ve nice affection for him, and I want him one of the best in his endeavor to stay within the huge leagues.)
The gamers coming again ease the blow to a point. Roden, who graduated from rookie eligibility not way back, acquired a 50 FV grade from Eric Longenhagen at first of the 2025 season. He’s since break up time between Triple-A and the large league roster, racking up 113 plate appearances for the Jays with only a single house run. Roden’s plate self-discipline stays glorious, however the lack of energy manufacturing has led Eric to downgrade his expectations barely.
“I hemmed and hawed over whether or not he was a forty five (the model the place he doesn’t get to a lot energy) or a 50 (the model the place he does), and it’s wanting just like the 45 model,” he advised me.
Eric additionally has Rojas as a forty five FV prospect. He shared some up to date ideas on the lefty with me:
Rojas is sitting 93-96 and touching 97, and is producing plus miss and chase together with his heater, a real plus starter’s fastball and foundational pitch. His secondary stuff is under common, together with his slider sitting 85-87 with inconsistent end and depth; his changeup additionally sits 88. He doesn’t have particularly nice tactile really feel for creating motion on his secondaries. Rojas has a prototypical starter’s construct, and I believe he matches in a giant league rotation, however extra as a no. 4/5 sort due to the generic offspeed stuff.
Roden and Rojas had been maybe entrance of thoughts when Twins POBOBO Derek Falvey tried to clarify the strikes in a letter to season ticket holders on Friday morning.
“We didn’t make floor strikes,” Falvey wrote. “We acted with objective. That meant including gamers who will help now, deepening our expertise pipeline for 2026 and past, and reinforcing the inspiration for long-term success.”
There’s a technique to squint and see how this could possibly be the case. Buxton, López, and Ryan stay on the roster (for now.) The Twins acquired a haul of controllable expertise. If the Pohlad household gave the entrance workplace a mandate to clear as a lot payroll as attainable on the deadline, they did in addition to anybody might fairly hope below difficult circumstances. However Twins followers and the remainder of the baseball world aren’t reacting to this sequence of strikes from some place of unsophisticated emotion. Proper now, this all sucks quite a bit, and even the best prospects gained’t change that actuality.
