Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
Sport 7. Two of one of the best phrases in sports activities.
This can be very true when the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder take the court docket on Sunday for the ultimate recreation of the 2025 NBA Finals.
Dillon Jones of the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder and Obi Toppin of the Indiana Pacers combat for a rebound through the fourth quarter in Sport 6
The Pacers dominated Sport 6, tied the collection after which pressured a Sport 7.
OKC now has the chance to bounce again from a poor efficiency. However the Thunder will want guys to step up.
After the season-saving Sport 6 win for Indiana, each groups have an opportunity to clinch their first championship on Sunday.
With that in thoughts, I see 4 wagers which have worth proper now.
Let’s dive into it.
Thunder first quarter
My favourite wager to make within the postseason is to take a crew coming off a loss to cowl the primary quarter within the subsequent recreation when they’re enjoying at house.
It’s an excellent higher wager with a crew like Oklahoma Metropolis, which is unbelievable at house.
The Thunder have received and lined the primary quarter in all three house video games of this collection. Additionally they received and lined 4 of the primary six quarters following a loss. This final loss was gnarly. It marked the worst offensive efficiency by the Thunder this season.
They shot simply 26% from three-point vary, with most of their makes coming throughout rubbish time. They’d 21 turnovers and had been out-rebounded.
On condition that poor efficiency, it’s frequent for groups to play higher of their subsequent recreation at house. I anticipate the Thunder to start out quick on Sunday night time.
PICK: Thunder (-3.5) first quarter
My participant props for Sport 7 are all zigzag props. The idea entails betting the other aspect of a participant prop following both an terrible night time or one which’s been too good.
For instance, in Sport 6, Aaron Wiggins was the right fade alternative. At house in Sport 5, he scored 14 factors, however in Sport 6, he went Underneath 5.5 factors.
Retaining this in thoughts, listed below are my participant prop picks for Sport 7.
Alex Caruso Over 8.5 Factors
Caruso performed 22 minutes in Sport 6 and didn’t rating a single level.
He solely tried two pictures, the least variety of pictures he’s taken in a recreation since logging 12 minutes in Sport 1 in opposition to the Grizzlies. Caruso has scored simply two factors within the final two video games whereas enjoying 51 minutes. There have been situations this postseason the place he has fewer factors than ordinary in two straight video games, solely to comply with that up by scoring over 8.5 factors.
He scored 10 factors in Sport 4 in opposition to the Nuggets after simply 9 within the earlier two video games and reached 10 factors in opposition to the Wolves in Sport 4 after solely scoring 12 within the final two video games.
Caruso may see extra enjoying time as nicely. The Thunder have been tweaking their lineups, and he is a part of probably the most optimum lineup. He’ll get the possibility to surpass 8.5 factors.
PICK: Alex Caruso Over 8.5 factors
Alex Caruso handles the ball in opposition to the Indiana Pacers through the third quarter in Sport 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals
Jalen Williams Over 9.5 rebounds and assists
Like the remainder of his crew, Jalen Williams had an off night time in Sport 6, however he had been tremendous dependable within the earlier 5 video games of this collection.
He’s recorded no less than 10 rebounds and assists in 4 of these 5 video games. Wanting again to the prior two collection, he’s exceeded 9.5 rebounds and assists in six of the final eight video games. Additional, he’s managed no less than 10 rebounds and assists in 4 of the six video games following a Thunder loss.
Williams has taken extra management of the Thunder’s offense in latest video games, particularly because the Pacers hold hounding SGA within the backcourt. Following a recreation the place the Thunder didn’t shoot nicely or move a lot, I anticipate Williams to generate extra assists.
He’s usually across the basket because of who he’s guarding, so rebounds ought to be extra inside his attain. I like him Over right here.
PICK: Jalen Williams Over 9.5 rebounds and assists
Obi Toppin Underneath 10.5 factors
It’s robust to fade somebody who’s sizzling, however that is the spot to do it.
Toppin has scored 17, 12 and 20 factors in his final three video games — which is probably the most factors he’s scored in a three-game stretch this postseason. He’s been a shiny spot for the Pacers on the heart place, particularly with Myles Turner struggling the final three video games.
Can Toppin do it once more? 4 straight video games, plus a Sport 7 on the highway? These usually are not the video games the place function gamers sometimes shine.
PICK: Obi Toppin Underneath 10.5 factors
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Comply with him on Twitter @Geoffschwartz.
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